2014: Chasing Last Years Points .....

[freowho]

It would certainly be interesting to try and predict the next one! We may need to wait until O'Meara gets a bit older!

It would be good to see if there was a pattern in the stats. Maybe breakout games instead of breakout years like the ability to score big against tough opponents or score big even if your team is losing. Jaeger last year had a 120 against Sydney in only his second game.
I think Brad Crouch could be as good as Jaeger. He had 3 100's in a row last year, 2 of them were in losing teams to Fremantle and Port Adelaide.
Jack Viney had 3 100's in losing teams (all his team did last year was lose), one of them against Fremantle.

Liberatore's 2 massive games last year were against Melbourne (I don't think they will be as easy to beat under Roosy), Stevens 2 massive games were in winning sides(one of them was Fremantle's reserves side).

For the most part, I think they are more likely to emerge from a team running around 5th to 10th, but on the improve, than they are to come from the high or low end of the ladder.

Sounds like you might have done a bit of work on this Rowsus?

 

[Rowsus]

I totally agree. There is nothing surer than the fact, that new "Super" Premiums will emerge at some stage, and it is a good chance that more than one will pop up in the same year. For the most part, I think they are more likely to emerge from a team running around 5th to 10th, but on the improve, than they are to come from the high or low end of the ladder. That might make it a little more difficult for Libba and Steven, but having said that, I've been made to look like a monkey on several occassions before!

It would be good to see if there was a pattern in the stats. Maybe breakout games instead of breakout years like the ability to score big against tough opponents or score big even if your team is losing. Jaeger last year had a 120 against Sydney in only his second game.
I think Brad Crouch could be as good as Jaeger. He had 3 100's in a row last year, 2 of them were in losing teams to Fremantle and Port Adelaide.
Jack Viney had 3 100's in losing teams (all his team did last year was lose), one of them against Fremantle.

Liberatore's 2 massive games last year were against Melbourne (I don't think they will be as easy to beat under Roosy), Stevens 2 massive games were in winning sides(one of them was Fremantle's reserves side).




Sounds like you might have done a bit of work on this Rowsus?

I definitely agree with this, and it's one of the things I look at, when trying to find players capable of making a jump. Most players can score a 110 out of the blue, usually against weaker opposition, and with improved opportunity with one of the regulars out/rested. I look for players that might have averaged 80-90, with a few sub/injury affected scores, that have scored some 110+ scores in more difficult circumstances.

I haven't actually done work on this one ..... yet! Most of the research I do stems from patterns that catch my eye while I am doing other research. I remember this pattern hitting me one time, and thinking "it makes sense", if I find time, I might delve into it further.

 

[Rowsus]

One of my more controversial ideas/threads.
30 players in SC history have achieved these 2 Things.
1) A 20/game increase on the previous seasons average
2) The average they avhieved with that increase is 102 or higher.
Of those 30 players, only Swan and Ablett achieved an increase in average the following year, after their 20/game jump.

The players that qualified coming into this season were:

Bringing the total to 35 players. So how did these 5 players fare? Did they beat the "curse"?
Walker 87.9 not even close!
Liberatore sitting on 110, barring accidents he'll join Swan and Ablett.
Douglas sitting on 91, so nowhere near it.
Goldstein sitting on 107, and so many of you laughed when I said the Goldy/Minson combo would be no good this year!
Steven sitting on 83, very disappointing!

I did say in one of my threads/articles, that if someone would break the "curse" this year, it would probably be Libba.
So now 35 players have achieved the cursed double, and only 3 have manged to continue some improvement the next season!
I think that definitely makes this thread worth repeating next season, to see who is cursed for 2015!

 

[jaca]

I had Libba from the start this year, so happy it worked out! What are your thoughts on how he's likely to progress given he's broken the curse?

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Good stuff Rowsus, I remember this thread earlier in the year and chose Libba based on that analysis.
I can say he has been OK with some cold patches almost costing me some games. If he can shorten the gap between his best and his worst, he is a pretty handy M7/M8 I think.

 

[BC]

whats with montagna's drop?
doesn't get tagged does he?
could back him in for 115+ with a handy cieling last year and before

 

[Bomber18]

Great follow up!
Who are the 20 avg + boost players this year ?

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Great follow up!
Who are the 20 avg + boost players this year ?

Rowsus does not seem around which probably a time zone thing and maybe sleep time where he is.

Hopefully this helps what you guys are after.

Player name Season change 2014 Ave
Rockliff, Tom 22.19 131.89
Mumford, Shane 23.10 115.00
Jacobs, Sam 29.41 114.71
Martin, Stefan 67.45 112.45
Gray, Robbie 28.42 110.52
Sandilands, Aaron 44.65 108.65
Parker, Luke 21.15 108.05
Treloar, Adam 20.32 107.42
Swallow, David 23.45 103.05
Macrae, Jackson 40.55 101.95
Miles, Anthony 44.18 101.18
Wines, Oliver 27.00 101.00
Greene, Toby 27.73 100.93
Tyson, Dom 48.63 93.33
Crisp, Jack 47.80 91.80
Jaensch, Matthew 28.82 89.10
Shiels, Liam 27.25 88.65
Hickey, Tom 30.23 88.33
Thomas, Matt 29.92 87.92
Carrazzo, Andrew 20.28 86.38
Whiley, Mark 50.10 84.00
McIntosh, Hamish 83.78 83.78
Polec, Jared 50.45 82.45
McGovern, Jeremy 82.33 82.33
Lowden, Luke 82.00 82.00
Newnes, Jack 22.99 81.19
Wood, Cameron 79.40 79.40
Ceglar, Jonathon 30.00 77.00
Suckling, Matt 76.95 76.95
Bontempelli, Marcus 76.80 76.80
Dunstan, Luke 74.56 74.56
Langford, Will 60.00 74.00
Tutt, Jason 22.00 73.00
Langdon, Tom 71.61 71.61
Aish, James 70.10 70.10
Turner, Kayne 69.50 69.50
Kelly, Josh 69.12 69.12
Mitchell, Kane 24.30 68.80
Kolodjashnij, Kade 68.47 68.47
Wood, Easton 24.46 68.06
Martin, Brodie 31.95 67.38
Ellis, Xavier 45.79 67.29
Bail, Rohan 23.10 66.20
McDonald, Luke 66.00 66.00
Sheehan, Ciaran 65.33 65.33
Michie, Viv 24.80 64.80
Hallahan, Mitch 64.50 64.50
Taylor, Lewis 63.19 63.19
Merrett, Zac 63.00 63.00
Shenton, Cameron 29.92 61.92
Crouch, Matt 61.71 61.71
Brown, Ben 61.57 61.57
Billings, Jack 61.06 61.06
Lloyd, Sam 60.75 60.75
Cunningham, Harry 43.62 60.62
Broomhead, Tim 59.71 59.71
Taberner, Matthew 27.12 59.67
Bennell, Jamie 59.17 59.17
Saunders, Josh 20.40 59.10
Laidler, Jeremy 26.09 58.79
Gray, Sam 57.43 57.43
Ramsay, Jackson 57.00 57.00
Lloyd, Jake 56.82 56.82
Ambrose, Patrick 56.80 56.80
Litherland, Angus 56.67 56.67
Derickx, Tom 56.17 56.17
Gardiner, Darcy 56.00 56.00
Gleeson, Martin 56.00 56.00
Buckley, Dylan 24.75 55.75
Cameron, Charlie 55.29 55.29
Robertson, Nick 54.50 54.50
McStay, Daniel 53.13 53.13
Thompson, Luke 53.00 53.00
Gordon, Nathan 51.50 51.50
Acres, Blake 51.33 51.33
Jong, Lin 50.83 50.83
Currie, Daniel 50.67 50.67
O'Brien, Zac 50.25 50.25
Martin, Jack 50.20 50.20
Impey, Jarman 49.76 49.76
McCarthy, Lincoln 49.50 49.50
Phillips, Andrew 49.00 49.00
Cripps, Patrick 47.50 47.50
Lemmens, Sean 46.53 46.53
Cutler, Tom 46.43 46.43
Woodward, Alex 46.00 46.00
Honeychurch, Mitch 45.33 45.33
Georgiou, Alexis 45.14 45.14
Leslie, Jack 45.00 45.00
Colledge, Brant 44.50 44.50
Apeness, Michael 44.00 44.00
Kennedy-Harris, Jay 43.86 43.86
Boyd, Tom 42.88 42.88
Tippett, Joel 42.50 42.50
Cameron, Clay 41.50 41.50
Roberts, Fletcher 41.50 41.50
Templeton, Eli 41.17 41.17
Ashby, Jason 41.00 41.00
Lobb, Rory 41.00 41.00
Membrey, Tim 40.00 40.00
Newton, Ben 40.00 40.00
Van Unen, Dylan 40.00 40.00
Sheed, Dom 39.90 39.90
Sheringham, Jackson 39.71 39.71
Jones, Zak 39.67 39.67
Steinberg, Ariel 39.50 39.50
Close, Michael 39.43 39.43
O'Brien, Tim 39.00 39.00
Towers, Dean 38.80 38.80
Kersten, Shane 38.78 38.78
Hartung, Billy 38.50 38.50
O'Rourke, Jonathan 24.38 38.38
Bews, Jed 38.00 38.00
Redpath, Jack 38.00 38.00
Paine, Jackson 37.20 37.20
Lang, Darcy 37.00 37.00
Freeman, Jonathan 36.00 36.00
Morabito, Anthony 35.67 35.67
Hartman, Brad 35.00 35.00
Salem, Christian 34.42 34.42
Lennon, Ben 33.57 33.57
Fantasia, Orazio 33.50 33.50
Johnson, Blaine 32.80 32.80
Barry, Dom 32.75 32.75
Clurey, Tom 31.00 31.00
Aylett, Kurt 30.50 30.50
White, Spencer 28.00 28.00
Duffy, Max 26.50 26.50
Ross, Ben 25.00 25.00

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Whether these guys can keep improving next year will be of interest.
David Swallow will probably lose SC DEF status so will need to bump his average up further.

Parker, Luke 21.15 108.05
Treloar, Adam 20.32 107.42
Swallow, David 23.45 103.05
Macrae, Jackson 40.55 101.95
Miles, Anthony 44.18 101.18
Wines, Oliver 27.00 101.00
Greene, Toby 27.73 100.93
Tyson, Dom 48.63 93.33

 

[Bomber18]

Thanks for that!!

Gray and Rocky probably the ones to be cursed!

Probably avoid starting, and trade in!

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus does not seem around which probably a time zone thing and maybe sleep time where he is.

Hopefully this helps what you guys are after.

Player name Season change 2014 Ave
Rockliff, Tom 22.19 131.89
Mumford, Shane 23.10 115.00
Jacobs, Sam 29.41 114.71
Martin, Stefan 67.45 112.45
Gray, Robbie 28.42 110.52
Sandilands, Aaron 44.65 108.65
Parker, Luke 21.15 108.05
Treloar, Adam 20.32 107.42
Swallow, David 23.45 103.05
Macrae, Jackson 40.55 101.95
Miles, Anthony 44.18 101.18
Wines, Oliver 27.00 101.00
Greene, Toby 27.73 100.93

Nice work Oz, thanks for that!
So it looks we have 9 "certainties" to add to the list of 35 for next season, and 4 that might get added, depending on how they perform this week.
Rockliff - it would be a brave person to expect Rocky to become Ablettesque, and improve his average next season!!!
Jacobs has the double-whammy curse to overcome. "Chasing last seasons points" curse, and the "top Ruck" curse!

 

[freowho]

Nice work Oz, thanks for that!
So it looks we have 9 "certainties" to add to the list of 35 for next season, and 4 that might get added, depending on how they perform this week.
Rockliff - it would be a brave person to expect Rocky to become Ablettesque, and improve his average next season!!!
Jacobs has the double-whammy curse to overcome. "Chasing last seasons points" curse, and the "top Ruck" curse!

I was at the game on Sunday and Rockliff was a bit of a throwback to the old centreman days where they literally just stayed in the middle of the ground and were used as a link man. He looked like Greg Williams making little 10m leads to collect short kicks and dishing out hand passes to players running past. There was nothing spectacular or over the top about it, just relentless and efficient. If Leppitsch is happy for him to do that it will be hard to see his scoring going down. Teams that flood back like Sydney, Carlton and Freo won't care about his disposals in the centre. He will probably struggle against teams who hold their structure like Hawthorn and Port Adelaide.

 

[Bomber18]

Nice work Oz, thanks for that!
So it looks we have 9 "certainties" to add to the list of 35 for next season, and 4 that might get added, depending on how they perform this week.
Rockliff - it would be a brave person to expect Rocky to become Ablettesque, and improve his average next season!!!
Jacobs has the double-whammy curse to overcome. "Chasing last seasons points" curse, and the "top Ruck" curse!
Player name Season change 2014 Ave
Rockliff, Tom 22.19 131.89
Mumford, Shane 23.10 115.00
Jacobs, Sam 29.41 114.71
Martin, Stefan 67.45 112.45
Gray, Robbie 28.42 110.52
Sandilands, Aaron 44.65 108.65
Parker, Luke 21.15 108.05
Treloar, Adam 20.32 107.42
Swallow, David 23.45 103.05
Macrae, Jackson 40.55 101.95
Miles, Anthony 44.18 101.18
Wines, Oliver 27.00 101.00
Greene, Toby 27.73 100.93

Bumping this as it's another great read before the seasons starts.

Interesting how only Greene, Parker, Jacobs were the main failures last season, with Rocky/Mummy (although to what extent?), Wines & Swallow being injury affected.

Who will suffer the curse this season?
Shaw? Bont? Blicavs? T.Mitchell? All 20+ increases and averaged 102.
Hannebery/Mundy (altho under 20)?

 

[stephen]

Bumping this as it's another great read before the seasons starts.

Interesting how only Greene, Parker, Jacobs were the main failures last season, with Rocky/Mummy (although to what extent?), Wines & Swallow being injury affected.

Who will suffer the curse this season?
Shaw? Bont? Blicavs? T.Mitchell? All 20+ increases and averaged 102.
Hannebery/Mundy (altho under 20)?

Goldstein's the other one that stands out this year. 21.9 point increase in average to 128.8.

 

[Junior Wölf]

Goldstein's the other one that stands out this year. 21.9 point increase in average to 128.8.

But how much does the new rucking system influence his 2015 average?

 

[Erich1036]

But how much does the new rucking system influence his 2015 average?

I remember reading somewhere (think it came from the prospectus) that Goldstein would have averaged something like an extra 10 points in 2015 under the old ruck scoring system. But I think it was similar for most rucks.

 

[Bomber18]

Bumping this.

Something to keep in mind when selecting a few of the newer premiums (ie: Oliver, J.Kelly, M.Crouch (almost did +20)).

Bont "beat" the theory in 2015-16. Zerrett almost did but alas he did decrease his average by 2ppg last season.

 

[nicohighscore]

Bumping this as well : has anyone ever looked at what happened BEFORE a 20 pts average jump ?
Pretty sure Rowsus would have looked at it as it is the graal of spotting break out ...

my early thoughts based on just "looking" at data a lot : it seems that a "small" average raise, but a major diminution of the variance ( and probably the floor) are early sign of a brewing premo... - but I don't have the systematic approach that @Rowsus applied here...

 

[Tails]

Bumping this as well : has anyone ever looked at what happened BEFORE a 20 pts average jump ?
Pretty sure Rowsus would have looked at it as it is the graal of spotting break out ...

my early thoughts based on just "looking" at data a lot : it seems that a "small" average raise, but a major diminution of the variance ( and probably the floor) are early sign of a brewing premo... - but I don't have the systematic approach that @Rowsus applied here...

My view is that the game has changed (SC wise) too much in the last few years will all the new rules etc ...

- So a lot of previous scores / statistics etc are somewhat meaningless / misleading / compromised ...

 

[Rowsus]

Bumping this as well : has anyone ever looked at what happened BEFORE a 20 pts average jump ?
Pretty sure Rowsus would have looked at it as it is the graal of spotting break out ...

my early thoughts based on just "looking" at data a lot : it seems that a "small" average raise, but a major diminution of the variance ( and probably the floor) are early sign of a brewing premo... - but I don't have the systematic approach that @Rowsus applied here...

I actually did do a thread back in 2013 (I think), about how to spot a potential break out player. I can't quite remember what it was called. I think it is possible that thread has been lost, in one of the platform shifts done over the years.
However ......

My view is that the game has changed (SC wise) too much in the last few years will all the new rules etc ...

- So a lot of previous scores / statistics etc are somewhat meaningless / misleading / compromised ...

I totally agree with this!
The game has changed so much in the past 4 seasons, let alone 9 seasons, that much of my early threads/research are dated now. Some of the principles still apply, but in most cases, the game has moved beyond the data I was basing it on.