2015 SC POD's & potential Cash Cow Selections

[Bob Loblaw]

Big SC POD in my opinion and one to keep a close eye on his Scott Lycett.
First Glance:
2011: 70ppg, 1 match
2012: 38.5 ppg, 2 match
2013: 65.6 ppg, 7 match
2014: 78ppg, 12 match
Definitely not worth paying 418k on???
Wrong
Break down 2014: There was not one game where neither Cox nor Naitanui played for west coast meaning at least one of them was in the side in each match in 2014.
Cox missed rounds 13, 14, 17, 19, 23:
During this time Lycett averaged: 97.2 (104, 89, 117, 68, 108)
During this time Lycett did not drop below 17 hitouts a match. Av 20 hitouts per match.

Nic Nat missed rounds 16, 22.
Lycett av 93.5ppg (92, 95)
Lycett av 25 hitouts a match

Averages without either Nic Nat or Cox out
Supercoach: 96ppg
Hitouts: 21
Disposals: 15
Goals: 1 per game
Marks: 4.7
Tackles: 3
TOG: 80%

Average with both Cox and Nic Nat. (Ignoring match where he was subbed out on 23)
SuperCoach:60
Hitouts: 3.75
Goals: 1.5
Disposals: 9.75
Marks: 2.75
Tackles: 2.75

Edit: in 2012 Lycett over his 7 games had a hitout to advantage rate of 24.7% (average).

 

[Erich1036]

Big SC POD in my opinion and one to keep a close eye on his Scott Lycett.
First Glance:
2011: 70ppg, 1 match
2012: 38.5 ppg, 2 match
2013: 65.6 ppg, 7 match
2014: 78ppg, 12 match
Definitely not worth paying 418k on???
Wrong
Break down 2014: There was not one game where neither Cox nor Naitanui played for west coast meaning at least one of them was in the side in each match in 2014.
Cox missed rounds 13, 14, 17, 19, 23:
During this time Lycett averaged: 97.2 (104, 89, 117, 68, 108)
During this time Lycett did not drop below 17 hitouts a match. Av 20 hitouts per match.

Nic Nat missed rounds 16, 22.
Lycett av 93.5ppg (92, 95)
Lycett av 25 hitouts a match

Averages without either Nic Nat or Cox out
Supercoach: 96ppg
Hitouts: 21
Disposals: 15
Goals: 1 per game
Marks: 4.7
Tackles: 3
TOG: 80%

Average with both Cox and Nic Nat. (Ignoring match where he was subbed out on 23)
SuperCoach:60
Hitouts: 3.75
Goals: 1.5
Disposals: 9.75
Marks: 2.75
Tackles: 2.75

Edit: in 2012 Lycett over his 7 games had a hitout to advantage rate of 24.7% (average).

Great work mate, one to keep an eye on for sure. Especially if you've got Nic Nat in the ruck, because he'll provide cover at what seems to be premium level scoring in his absence.

 

[Nk29]

Considering Cotchin as a POD mid. Risky but I like picking team captains and with a fit Maric could hit top form. Also while not PODs on their own, strongly considering taking all of Lids, Martin, Cotchin and Maric.

 

[Bob Loblaw]

Considering Cotchin as a POD mid. Risky but I like picking team captains and with a fit Maric could hit top form. Also while not PODs on their own, strongly considering taking all of Lids, Martin, Cotchin and Maric.

While Lids Martin and Maric all seem like good ideas, I'm going to have to strongly disagree with Cotchin. Cotchin is the AFL's second most overrated player in the AFL a mile behind Luke Hodge (Great Leader, Good player. Not a champion player by any stretch, don't even get me started.
Cotchin on the other hand has the least damaging disposal I reckon I have ever seen from a midfeilder. 15-25m kicks to uncontested player seem to all he is good for. He can't cop a tag, and only beats up on ****house teams. Please I urge you, do not do it, it will only lead to pain and sorrow.

 

[johno686]

While Lids Martin and Maric all seem like good ideas, I'm going to have to strongly disagree with Cotchin. Cotchin is the AFL's second most overrated player in the AFL a mile behind Luke Hodge (Great Leader, Good player. Not a champion player by any stretch, don't even get me started.
Cotchin on the other hand has the least damaging disposal I reckon I have ever seen from a midfeilder. 15-25m kicks to uncontested player seem to all he is good for. He can't cop a tag, and only beats up on ****house teams. Please I urge you, do not do it, it will only lead to pain and sorrow.

I like your little notes about the players. I know everyone has a opinion but To put them as your two most over rated players is really funny. Thumbs up made my day

 

[Frankel]

I am yet to see a team with Tom Liberatore in it. I assume it is because of the assumption that he will cop more attention without Griffen/Cooney there next year. Could be a huge POD, as his age/games/durability/average profiles indicate that he could be on the cusp of becoming a super premium. Thoughts?

 

[Nathan]

I am yet to see a team with Tom Liberatore in it. I assume it is because of the assumption that he will cop more attention without Griffen/Cooney there next year. Could be a huge POD, as his age/games/durability/average profiles indicate that he could be on the cusp of becoming a super premium. Thoughts?

Will cop the tag. Very one paced so can't do much too shake it.

 

[Frankel]

Pendlebury and Watson spring to mind as one paced players who are able to shake tags. He is a clearance machine who specialises in winning contested ball, should make him somewhat immune to a hard tag I would've thought.

 

[Junior Wölf]

I am yet to see a team with Tom Liberatore in it. I assume it is because of the assumption that he will cop more attention without Griffen/Cooney there next year. Could be a huge POD, as his age/games/durability/average profiles indicate that he could be on the cusp of becoming a super premium. Thoughts?

Will cop the tag. Very one paced so can't do much too shake it.

Pendlebury and Watson spring to mind as one paced players who are able to shake tags. He is a clearance machine who specialises in winning contested ball, should make him somewhat immune to a hard tag I would've thought.

Libba is likely going to be tagged the most this year from the dogs. However, as a in and under specialist, he needs to feed the ball to someone. Without Griff and Cooney, this is most likely going to be Macrae. Macrae showed glimpses of how good a player he is going to be early 2014 with monster scores for 2nd year player. Coming into this 3rd season, I reckon teams will be closely watching his run and carry from stoppages. So Libba tagged 1st but (my opinion) Macrae closely second. Not from a supercoach POV but The Bont is going to kill it this coming season if he manages to play majority of time in midfield. We need our young midfield core to stand up this year and Bont will become very damaging.

 

[FirstTimer]

Hi all ,
Can you all give me some feedback on a couple of defenders , Gary Rohan (13 games 2014) will he be a good cheap pick in defence and Tom Langdon worth a thought or not , was a good scorer early last year.
Keep up the good work guys it's fantastic getting all the info and knowledge from everyone to consider.

 

[Junior Wölf]

Hi all ,
Can you all give me some feedback on a couple of defenders , Gary Rohan (13 games 2014) will he be a good cheap pick in defence and Tom Langdon worth a thought or not , was a good scorer early last year.
Keep up the good work guys it's fantastic getting all the info and knowledge from everyone to consider.

I don't think Gary Rohan has a lot of time left in the Sydney senior team. Isaac Heeney by all reports sounds like an absolute gun. Tommy Mitchell has signed a new deal which means there MUST BE some assurances that he WILL get game time in 2015 and beyond (assured that he is fully fit). I see McVeigh going into defence to replace Malceski and Tommy Mitchell/Heeney going into midfield. Just my opinion.

Tom Langdon looks good but not sure about Pies defence line up.

 

[FirstTimer]

I don't think Gary Rohan has a lot of time left in the Sydney senior team. Isaac Heeney by all reports sounds like an absolute gun. Tommy Mitchell has signed a new deal which means there MUST BE some assurances that he WILL get game time in 2015 and beyond (assured that he is fully fit). I see McVeigh going into defence to replace Malceski and Tommy Mitchell/Heeney going into midfield. Just my opinion.

Tom Langdon looks good but not sure about Pies defence line up.

Thx in the ruck what option is the best one from
Kreuzer / Luen
Kreuzer / Bellchambers
Luen / Bellchambers
None of the above !!!!

 

[The Saltshaker]

Just a general note for all.
yakka did the right thing by deleting that post, and has taken it all in very good spirits.
We don't want things from other SC sites, other than HS and CD, copied over to this site, and we don't want links or acknowledgments to other sites. Our general approach is, they don't link/promote/acknowledge our site, so we don't do it either.
Everyone has taken this in the spirit it is intended so far, and removed or understood the removal of the offending posts.
We hope that continues to be the case.

Hello again lads, the excitement builds again. Rowsus you bloody legend hows things. Having been on many sites i found this site to be the most useful for statistical aspects and number crunching that has a purity behind it that opinion doesnt. Yes you get opinion but its the contributing stats analysis and comparity trends behind the data that resonates with me. All the other sites are useful for your rookie research, some player analysis, preseason form/updates. Yet i actually learnt more trends/rules that you just cant find on other sites.

I only came here late 2014 preseason in the 4weeks or so and learnt about importance of structure (Prem, mid, rookie) and the % of rookies across lines favours the mid and they score higher/generate faster and so planning accordingly is crucial to your success.

The take a rookie over midpricer if they arent a keeper argument, the cash generation slow down curve (roughly speaking the first $150k takes X games, the next $50k takes almost as long) with 30 trades now be aware of rather than trying to squeeze every last drop of milk.

No other site references TOG % in their opinion pieces. Ive paid more attention since as its a massive relevance.

What else......oh....The top 8 def from any given year have nearly always started outside the top 8 def from previous year to pulitzer prize winning dont leave home without it season draw charts for every team and player that Rowsus grinds his genius over that are as invaluable to any serious or mug coacher alike because the depth and cross position of data equal a value that you just dont get anywhere else in this fantasy world -- little gems of "higher game" like that are what elevates this site above all others...

Having said that there are always exceptions to the rule, stastically your chances of winning lotto is terrible but people do win its called random luck and i found sometimes stats will cool you down in the face of risk, your gut instinct is telling you otherwise but you play the percentage and it can backfiire when you miss the boat, but far better to miss a couple than go in blind and i really feel this site gives you thatt depth of vision that can only normally be understood through experience or indeed experienced but never understood until now

Love ya work, looking forward to the enlightening moments this site will provide in 2015

 

[The Saltshaker]

The bargains for me in 2015 are

Swan
S.Mitchell
T.Mitchell
A. Swallow
Waters
Whitecross
Natanui
Kruezer
Walker
Clark

Rich and Wells offer value but dont see them being keepers unless NAB cup shows me otherwise

 

[The Saltshaker]

Actually what i did find funny when i got here last year all these great exp coaches struggling, constantly changing their ruck selection right up to launch many had the minute jitters that i was experiencing....****er!!

 

[Prochard]

Thx in the ruck what option is the best one from
Kreuzer / Luen
Kreuzer / Bellchambers
Luen / Bellchambers
None of the above !!!!

Huge question marks over all of them. Kreuzer is believed to be playing a lot more forward next season, with the departure of waite and emergence of Warnock, he is also extremely injury prone and isn't that cheap anyways. Luenburger also struggles to get on the park, and theres a strong chance of him sharing the ruck with Martin. Out of the 3, I think Bellchambers is the best of the lot, and I will be picking him in the forward line hopefully.

 

[Prochard]

Hi all ,
Can you all give me some feedback on a couple of defenders , Gary Rohan (13 games 2014) will he be a good cheap pick in defence and Tom Langdon worth a thought or not , was a good scorer early last year.
Keep up the good work guys it's fantastic getting all the info and knowledge from everyone to consider.

Langdon no, rohan maybe. If you want a midpricer defender perhaps Lumumba and seedsman are OK options. Im expecting a 85-95 average prior to the byes from Lumumba and Seedsman is a good chance of breaking out

 

[The Saltshaker]

It'll be a lot harder to plan for the byes from the start of the year because there will be a lot of upgrading before then. I think it is a case of one eye on the byes and one eye on best available player.

Yeah thats my approach plan for the byes, get the right bottoming out prems - ive made massive gains last 2yrs through quality planning and trading through. However the outcomes were different. In 2013 i had right guns but backline carnage meant i was top 1500ish leading into byes. Once the backline carnage sorted itself (i didnt trade out the carnage rather i managed through) and my bye round upgrades in mids added to returning defence i came out gaining into top 1000 and strong finish into 750 then 450 by end of year.

By contrast to 2014 i messed up my structure from start (taking swan over pendles and daisy over mcrae) as well as a weak def line i found myself 29000ish early on. I decided provided i had the right keepers and what it did for 2013 winner dimmawits in it allowed for a very agressive trading strat with the new 30 trades rule i could afford to be aggressive and went about correctively trading...

i focussed on my def leeading into byes and some fallen mids. It helped the defs were on fire and i was top 1500 coming out of byes, a rapid rise and gave me a sense of control, the aggressive trading worked as i planned my byes for flexibility. Then instead the pendulum swung against me. My def premos had rough patch, injuries, my mid premo injuries, the fallen prems i got during after byes had shockers. Johnson, Selwood and Swan and loss of Watson, then Cox and other injuries meant i couldnt just ride the storm try manage for a few weeks, i had to keep trading - i got hibberd, mitchell etc and swan as mentioned and the following week they were out again. It was an average run home, was like i couldnt get out of 3rd gear and grow my team when i needed. I just hovered around 2200pts all year.. In fact ii limped home 1st after bye rounds in league then losing 5 straight matches leading into finals.

With all this going on i dont havee the developed game to add "floating donuts" and i wouldnt be as confident or flexible with managing the bye rounds having even less players to score from.

 

[Nathan]

Pendlebury and Watson spring to mind as one paced players who are able to shake tags. He is a clearance machine who specialises in winning contested ball, should make him somewhat immune to a hard tag I would've thought.

Sorry I more meant one dimensional/one trick pony and he just isn't as good as Pendles/Watson.

 

[Prochard]

What about Watson? I think he is at a decent price for his usual outputs.