http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/2047-2015-Mid-Price-Defenders/page2?p=148912#post148912
That's interesting. What are your thoughts on Kade Simpson for 2015?
That's interesting. What are your thoughts on Kade Simpson for 2015?
Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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I'm worried age might be catching up with him, which means his consistency could/should drop. He will probably miss a game or three (yes, he has played 22 out of 22 in 8 of his last 9 seasons, but he's older now!), and throw in the odd 40 or 50. I don't want to start him if that happens to be the case. I would rather take the risk on Docherty, if I was to take a Carlton Def.
Docherty is $100k cheaper, 9 years younger, and should be on the way up. I'd rather take a risk on a cheaper, younger player on the way up, than older, more expensive player on the way down, particularly in my Def line.
Docherty is $100k cheaper, 9 years younger, and should be on the way up. I'd rather take a risk on a cheaper, younger player on the way up, than older, more expensive player on the way down, particularly in my Def line.
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Always interested to hear your thoughts.
I'm interested with Kade Simpson as I believe he will end the year as a top 10 defender. That means that him averaging 92 (a modest drop, has a long established trend of scoring in the 90s) and me paying 513k for him is paying overs.
But, and this is a big one, I had him last year and everyone was falling over themselves to bring him. At round 11 he was average 109 and cost a touch under 600k. After this point he fell back down to earth and normalised his establish trend, but by this stage everyone else was buying him and they were missing his big scores. It didn't matter that his scores were dropping, because he was a top 10 keeper that most teams had bought or were buying thinking he'd had a lean patch.
If, and this is a big if, I start with him this year (which I am considering) and he starts by averaging 100+ (which is possible as the Navy Blues are playing Tigers, WCE, Ess, StK, Pies, Lions, Giants in first 7 rounds), then most people will be seeing him as a top 6 defender and trying to bring him in after his round 11 bye. That being the case, most people would buy and overpriced asset, and I would have seen most of his good scores for the year in the time where less people had him.
I know there are a lot of ifs and buts in there, that is the way my thoughts work thoughts.
I'm interested with Kade Simpson as I believe he will end the year as a top 10 defender. That means that him averaging 92 (a modest drop, has a long established trend of scoring in the 90s) and me paying 513k for him is paying overs.
But, and this is a big one, I had him last year and everyone was falling over themselves to bring him. At round 11 he was average 109 and cost a touch under 600k. After this point he fell back down to earth and normalised his establish trend, but by this stage everyone else was buying him and they were missing his big scores. It didn't matter that his scores were dropping, because he was a top 10 keeper that most teams had bought or were buying thinking he'd had a lean patch.
If, and this is a big if, I start with him this year (which I am considering) and he starts by averaging 100+ (which is possible as the Navy Blues are playing Tigers, WCE, Ess, StK, Pies, Lions, Giants in first 7 rounds), then most people will be seeing him as a top 6 defender and trying to bring him in after his round 11 bye. That being the case, most people would buy and overpriced asset, and I would have seen most of his good scores for the year in the time where less people had him.
I know there are a lot of ifs and buts in there, that is the way my thoughts work thoughts.
G'day Mr Row..
Just wanted your thoughts on forward line structures.
With all that power with premos and reasonable rookie rookie options, is there still room for a mid pricer (300k-400k). I'm seriously looking at a couple of DPP players.
J.kelly might improve with their inclusions over the preseason.
K.mitchell finally getting elevated to senior list might get the consistency that his been waiting for.
Just wanted your thoughts on forward line structures.
With all that power with premos and reasonable rookie rookie options, is there still room for a mid pricer (300k-400k). I'm seriously looking at a couple of DPP players.
J.kelly might improve with their inclusions over the preseason.
K.mitchell finally getting elevated to senior list might get the consistency that his been waiting for.
Hey Rowsus,
Do u mind doing an analysis on levi Greenwood?
Ever since moving to the midfield as an inside midfielder in round 7,
in the next 14 games,
He averaged
103.86 Sc Points
109.93 Dt Points
26.79 Disposals
Next year, he will most likely get even more time in the Collingwood midfield, as he firms as one of our top 3 choice at the centre bounce (Pendlebury, Adams Greenwood)
He is a contested beast with poor efficiency however, which is demonstrated by his poor Sc
t ratio?
What are you expecting him to average next year? Could he justtify his 510k price tag?
Do u mind doing an analysis on levi Greenwood?
Ever since moving to the midfield as an inside midfielder in round 7,
in the next 14 games,
He averaged
103.86 Sc Points
109.93 Dt Points
26.79 Disposals
Next year, he will most likely get even more time in the Collingwood midfield, as he firms as one of our top 3 choice at the centre bounce (Pendlebury, Adams Greenwood)
He is a contested beast with poor efficiency however, which is demonstrated by his poor Sc
t ratio?What are you expecting him to average next year? Could he justtify his 510k price tag?
Just had another read of the new thread mate and wanted to say thanks again.
I'm throwing a few left of centre ideas around and was wondering if you had any stats on Robbie Gray's transition from 2013-2014. I see him as fully priced to a degree, but when you consider where hes come from and the heights that some can still go I'm wondering whether 110ppg is just the tip of the iceberg. Could he actually be underpriced?
I'm throwing a few left of centre ideas around and was wondering if you had any stats on Robbie Gray's transition from 2013-2014. I see him as fully priced to a degree, but when you consider where hes come from and the heights that some can still go I'm wondering whether 110ppg is just the tip of the iceberg. Could he actually be underpriced?
Hey Rowsus,
Do u mind doing an analysis on levi Greenwood?
Ever since moving to the midfield as an inside midfielder in round 7,
in the next 14 games,
He averaged
103.86 Sc Points
109.93 Dt Points
26.79 Disposals
Next year, he will most likely get even more time in the Collingwood midfield, as he firms as one of our top 3 choice at the centre bounce (Pendlebury, Adams Greenwood)
He is a contested beast with poor efficiency however, which is demonstrated by his poor Sct ratio?
What are you expecting him to average next year? Could he justtify his 510k price tag?
Do u mind doing an analysis on levi Greenwood?
Ever since moving to the midfield as an inside midfielder in round 7,
in the next 14 games,
He averaged
103.86 Sc Points
109.93 Dt Points
26.79 Disposals
Next year, he will most likely get even more time in the Collingwood midfield, as he firms as one of our top 3 choice at the centre bounce (Pendlebury, Adams Greenwood)
He is a contested beast with poor efficiency however, which is demonstrated by his poor Sc
t ratio?What are you expecting him to average next year? Could he justtify his 510k price tag?
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Don't think so mate. If you're talking about the question IDIG raised regarding Greenwood, I was the one who responded, but thats on the Player X vs Player Y section. I might be wrong tho
Hey Rowsus,
Do u mind doing an analysis on levi Greenwood?
Ever since moving to the midfield as an inside midfielder in round 7,
in the next 14 games,
He averaged
103.86 Sc Points
109.93 Dt Points
26.79 Disposals
Next year, he will most likely get even more time in the Collingwood midfield, as he firms as one of our top 3 choice at the centre bounce (Pendlebury, Adams Greenwood)
He is a contested beast with poor efficiency however, which is demonstrated by his poor Sct ratio?
What are you expecting him to average next year? Could he justtify his 510k price tag?[/QUOTE
Look back through the thread, I believe someone has asked this question already
Do u mind doing an analysis on levi Greenwood?
Ever since moving to the midfield as an inside midfielder in round 7,
in the next 14 games,
He averaged
103.86 Sc Points
109.93 Dt Points
26.79 Disposals
Next year, he will most likely get even more time in the Collingwood midfield, as he firms as one of our top 3 choice at the centre bounce (Pendlebury, Adams Greenwood)
He is a contested beast with poor efficiency however, which is demonstrated by his poor Sc
t ratio?What are you expecting him to average next year? Could he justtify his 510k price tag?[/QUOTE
Look back through the thread, I believe someone has asked this question already
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G'day Mr yakka..,
I think there is definitely room for some "originality" in all the lines. As strong as the Fwd list looks this season, you can nearly bank on there will be 1 or 2 surprises in the top 10, and 1 or two flops from the big names. Just look at last years Def line.
I think Kelly is too big of a risk. He is priced too high for a Stepping stone, so you need him to go 90+ to be a good selection.
K Mitchell I like even less, I really can't see him hitting 90+ consistently enough to warrant selecting him.
I think there is definitely room for some "originality" in all the lines. As strong as the Fwd list looks this season, you can nearly bank on there will be 1 or 2 surprises in the top 10, and 1 or two flops from the big names. Just look at last years Def line.
I think Kelly is too big of a risk. He is priced too high for a Stepping stone, so you need him to go 90+ to be a good selection.
K Mitchell I like even less, I really can't see him hitting 90+ consistently enough to warrant selecting him.
greetings Rowsus,
I loved your series on parallels with Investment Theory - when the next rainy day comes along I plan to offer some thoughts; a long spell teaching that stuff at stage 2 level and above at a couple of decent Universities might allow me to make some interesting observations.
After the flattery, the question. Mean reversion. That seems to be what is often discussed here, albeit often with a different title. For example, JS suggests that Kade Simpson might well average 92 this year. So, if after a good start he is averaging 100+ then it is sell time. Why because if he ends up averaging 92 then (simple assumption - mid-season) he will average <84 for the remainder of the season. OK, I think we all understand the concept and the simple arithmetic.
When a player's current average diverges from his historic average is mean reversion more likely when he is scoring below or above his historic average? Or is the relationship symmetric? In a regression would age, number of games, position ..... be likely to be significant explanatory variables?
I ask about historic data because expectations are subjective and many here will have different expectations about the same players. I think I read somewhere you like a minimum of three years data to draw a reasonable inference - seems fair. You might have answered this question or something very similar previously - if so I apologise for not having read all the threads.
Thanks in advance.
I loved your series on parallels with Investment Theory - when the next rainy day comes along I plan to offer some thoughts; a long spell teaching that stuff at stage 2 level and above at a couple of decent Universities might allow me to make some interesting observations.
After the flattery, the question. Mean reversion. That seems to be what is often discussed here, albeit often with a different title. For example, JS suggests that Kade Simpson might well average 92 this year. So, if after a good start he is averaging 100+ then it is sell time. Why because if he ends up averaging 92 then (simple assumption - mid-season) he will average <84 for the remainder of the season. OK, I think we all understand the concept and the simple arithmetic.
When a player's current average diverges from his historic average is mean reversion more likely when he is scoring below or above his historic average? Or is the relationship symmetric? In a regression would age, number of games, position ..... be likely to be significant explanatory variables?
I ask about historic data because expectations are subjective and many here will have different expectations about the same players. I think I read somewhere you like a minimum of three years data to draw a reasonable inference - seems fair. You might have answered this question or something very similar previously - if so I apologise for not having read all the threads.
Thanks in advance.
Hey Rowsus,
Do u mind doing an analysis on levi Greenwood?
Ever since moving to the midfield as an inside midfielder in round 7,
in the next 14 games,
He averaged
103.86 Sc Points
109.93 Dt Points
26.79 Disposals
Next year, he will most likely get even more time in the Collingwood midfield, as he firms as one of our top 3 choice at the centre bounce (Pendlebury, Adams Greenwood)
He is a contested beast with poor efficiency however, which is demonstrated by his poor Sct ratio?
What are you expecting him to average next year? Could he justtify his 510k price tag?
Do u mind doing an analysis on levi Greenwood?
Ever since moving to the midfield as an inside midfielder in round 7,
in the next 14 games,
He averaged
103.86 Sc Points
109.93 Dt Points
26.79 Disposals
Next year, he will most likely get even more time in the Collingwood midfield, as he firms as one of our top 3 choice at the centre bounce (Pendlebury, Adams Greenwood)
He is a contested beast with poor efficiency however, which is demonstrated by his poor Sc
t ratio?What are you expecting him to average next year? Could he justtify his 510k price tag?
Pretty sure I haven't done a Greenwood before, but I haven't checked all 142 pages!
He's an interesting prospect, but high risk given his price.
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Hey mike,
Def, it looks like you want 95, but you'd probably settle for 90-92.
Mid, want 110+, settle for 107-108
Ruck, great question this year. My guess is want 108, settle for anything 100+
Fwds, want very high 90's, settle for 94-96.
Here's what I prepared on Harwood in November.
Def, it looks like you want 95, but you'd probably settle for 90-92.
Mid, want 110+, settle for 107-108
Ruck, great question this year. My guess is want 108, settle for anything 100+
Fwds, want very high 90's, settle for 94-96.
Here's what I prepared on Harwood in November.
Thanks heaps mate!
There are 28 occassions in which a player has increased his average by 20+pts/game to a 110+ average.
Goldstein, Mumford and Rockliff have done it twice each, which means 25 different players have achieved this.
5 players achieved it this season, so we can't see how they went the season after. (Gray, Jacobs, Martin, Mumford, Rockliff)
That leaves 23 occassions to look at, so we can see how they went the next season.
After achieving a 20+ jump to an average of 110+:
Ablett went +18.0, and Swan went +3.7
Chapman -2.6, Jack -3.1, Scotland -3.6, Dangerfield -6.0, Goldstein -6.6, Bartel -9.6, Cox -9.9.
The other 14 dropped off by between -10.4 and -48.5! The average of all 23 players, including Ablett and Swan is -14.6.
It all backs up what we already know. The higher you score, and/or the bigger you jump, the harder it is to maintain the standard.
The other thing that worries me, is that Gray took 8 seasons to join the 110+ Club. Yes, there were excuses for his "delayed development", but history also points to this being a spike of some sort.
There have been 68 players record 110+ seasons, and they have managed that 147 times between them. Some of the comparisons become a bit sketchy, as some of the players did it in the early days of SC, but not the early days of their careers.
Boyd joined in his 9th season, and has dropped average every season since.
Montagna joined in his 8th season, and has dropped 4 out of 5 seasons since, never getting within 10/game of his "joining" score.
Sandilands joined in his 8th season, and like Joey, has never beaten that first 110+ score.
SJ joined in his 12th season, and dropped 9.3 in his only other season.
Cross joined (?) in his 9th season, and has dropped all 4 seasons since, never getting closer than 15.4/game lower.
Watson joined in his 8th season, and has never got closer than 9.5 behind his joining score.
Minson joined in his 10th season, and scored 21 less in his only other season.
Griffen joined in his 9th season, then fell 17.7 in his only other season.
Deledio did it in his 8th season, and hasn't got within 13 in his only other 2 seasons.
36 players have recorded more than 1 110+ season. 14 players have recorded a season better than their joining season, at some stage after their joining season. Apart from Goddard, who joined in his 6th season, none of them took more than 5 seasons to join the 110+ Club.
Everything points to Gray possibly struggling to meet his price, but that doesn't mean he is a bad selection, just a risky one.
Goldstein, Mumford and Rockliff have done it twice each, which means 25 different players have achieved this.
5 players achieved it this season, so we can't see how they went the season after. (Gray, Jacobs, Martin, Mumford, Rockliff)
That leaves 23 occassions to look at, so we can see how they went the next season.
After achieving a 20+ jump to an average of 110+:
Ablett went +18.0, and Swan went +3.7
Chapman -2.6, Jack -3.1, Scotland -3.6, Dangerfield -6.0, Goldstein -6.6, Bartel -9.6, Cox -9.9.
The other 14 dropped off by between -10.4 and -48.5! The average of all 23 players, including Ablett and Swan is -14.6.
It all backs up what we already know. The higher you score, and/or the bigger you jump, the harder it is to maintain the standard.
The other thing that worries me, is that Gray took 8 seasons to join the 110+ Club. Yes, there were excuses for his "delayed development", but history also points to this being a spike of some sort.
There have been 68 players record 110+ seasons, and they have managed that 147 times between them. Some of the comparisons become a bit sketchy, as some of the players did it in the early days of SC, but not the early days of their careers.
Boyd joined in his 9th season, and has dropped average every season since.
Montagna joined in his 8th season, and has dropped 4 out of 5 seasons since, never getting within 10/game of his "joining" score.
Sandilands joined in his 8th season, and like Joey, has never beaten that first 110+ score.
SJ joined in his 12th season, and dropped 9.3 in his only other season.
Cross joined (?) in his 9th season, and has dropped all 4 seasons since, never getting closer than 15.4/game lower.
Watson joined in his 8th season, and has never got closer than 9.5 behind his joining score.
Minson joined in his 10th season, and scored 21 less in his only other season.
Griffen joined in his 9th season, then fell 17.7 in his only other season.
Deledio did it in his 8th season, and hasn't got within 13 in his only other 2 seasons.
36 players have recorded more than 1 110+ season. 14 players have recorded a season better than their joining season, at some stage after their joining season. Apart from Goddard, who joined in his 6th season, none of them took more than 5 seasons to join the 110+ Club.
Everything points to Gray possibly struggling to meet his price, but that doesn't mean he is a bad selection, just a risky one.
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