Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[MC's Mix]

Hi guys, first post here, have spent a fair bit of time reading through over the past 2 days since I discovered this site and have been very impressed with the depth of research/statistics/discussion. Far outclasses any other SC site i've visited/contributed to in terms of evidence-based opinions, so thank-you!

Just a quick one from me:

I've been strongly considering Mayes, Docherty and Seedsman for my team as a value pick. Which of those would you suggest is most likely to become a keeper and average 88-92?

 

[siwel]

Hi guys, first post here, have spent a fair bit of time reading through over the past 2 days since I discovered this site and have been very impressed with the depth of research/statistics/discussion. Far outclasses any other SC site i've visited/contributed to in terms of evidence-based opinions, so thank-you!

Just a quick one from me:

I've been strongly considering Mayes, Docherty and Seedsman for my team as a value pick. Which of those would you suggest is most likely to become a keeper and average 88-92?

Welcome aboard, this is easily the best SC site around! Im sure Rowsus will answer your questions on Mayes, Docherty and Seedsman it may also be worth posting it in the mid price defenders thread - here

 

[chels]

"I've been strongly considering Mayes, Docherty and Seedsman for my team as a value pick. Which of those would you suggest is most likely to become a keeper and average 88-92?"

Is there some reason why you have limited the range to 88-92? It seems to obfuscate the question - if one of them was going to average >92 would you reject him?

 

[MC's Mix]

"I've been strongly considering Mayes, Docherty and Seedsman for my team as a value pick. Which of those would you suggest is most likely to become a keeper and average 88-92?"

Is there some reason why you have limited the range to 88-92? It seems to obfuscate the question - if one of them was going to average >92 would you reject him?

No, i've just come to the conclusion that the top 10-20 defenders will average around 85+ based on a table that Rowsus posted earlier which showed the top defenders for the past 3 years. As far as i'm concerned 88-92 would be perfect for D4-6 roughly.

The numbers are irrelevant though, what i'm really wanting to know is which of the 3 is most likely to jump up into the upper echelon of defenders for 2015.

 

[MC's Mix]

Welcome aboard, this is easily the best SC site around! Im sure Rowsus will answer your questions on Mayes, Docherty and Seedsman it may also be worth posting it in the mid price defenders thread - here

Cheers!

 

[Braider]

Hi guys, first post here...
I've been strongly considering Mayes, Docherty and Seedsman for my team as a value pick. Which of those would you suggest is most likely to become a keeper and average 88-92?

"I've been strongly considering Mayes, Docherty and Seedsman for my team as a value pick. Which of those would you suggest is most likely to become a keeper and average 88-92?"

Is there some reason why you have limited the range to 88-92? It seems to obfuscate the question - if one of them was going to average >92 would you reject him?

Chels, at the bottom of every post is an option marked "Quote". When you click on it, the selected post appears in the Reply window.
It's much easier to follow the conversation, rather than using quotation marks, as you've done a few times. It can get quite confusing as to who's actually said what's in the quotation marks, especially when sometimes there can be many posts between your post and the post your responding to.

 

[chels]

Chels, at the bottom of every post is an option marked "Quote". When you click on it, the selected post appears in the Reply window.
It's much easier to follow the conversation, rather than using quotation marks, as you've done a few times. It can get quite confusing as to who's actually said what's in the quotation marks, especially when sometimes there can be many posts between your post and the post your responding to.

Many thanks braider, I had wondered how that bit of magic worked!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus - apologies if this has come up before, have you given any consideration to a Stephen Coniglio breakout?

Also not sure how he's looking fitness wise, but lachie Whitfield is another one who i'd appreciate your thoughts on

Many thanks.

Hi Zagbag,
I haven't done any of my tables on GWS yet. Coniglio certainly started the season well, averaging 103 in the first 5 rounds last season, but dropping off to finish on 83.5. I think there are a few too many Things going against him to be a genuine breakout player this year. The addition of Griffen, and GWS still struggling to win their share of games, or be competitive enough games, are probably the 2 biggest hurdles.
Whitfield appears to be struggling through the pre-season, and I wouldn't seriously consider him until we see how he comes through that.
If you could choose them outside of the Mid area, they might be worth the punt, but as it is, they look like they are just too risky.

 

[Rowsus]

Last year I used your spreadsheet throughout the season simply for calculating price changes (thank you, it was great!). I did this by putting in what I thought the player would score and their current price in a random row (therefore using your pricing formula). I didn't necessarily need to use the row of the player I was wanting price changes for. Just wondering whether that will work again this year if I use last year's spreadsheet? Or has the magic number of whatever changed?
Thanks very much

Hi Footy,
unfortunately no, it won't work. The MN number starts at different values, and changes at different rates each season. You could use it as an approximation, but the further into the season it goes, the more inaccurate it is likely to be,

 

[Bontempele]

Hi Footy,
unfortunately no, it won't work. The MN number starts at different values, and changes at different rates each season. You could use it as an approximation, but the further into the season it goes, the more inaccurate it is likely to be,

Ok thanks anyway.

TooSerious works during the season. It's jsut annoying to have to type it in each box rather than dragging across.

 

[Rowsus]

ROWSUS your analysis on players that have seen an avg increase of 20+ points in one season is great along with that table. From this I like a few above have a question about Fyfe now. What are your thoughts on him and is there any statistical evidence that supports him either increasing, maintaining or decreasing his SC avg other that the fact that so many have done this and failed the following year?

For what its worth he is in my team atm but I am questioning it and analysis on players who have seen 20+ point increases and Ross's words of him wanting Fyfe to spend more time closer to goal have me second guessing myself.

SIWEL, rules and statistical patterns are made to be broken, and while in most cases they will hold up, the very best players will defy them.
My favourite comparison for Fyfe is Pendlebury. Not because they are similar players, but because their SC profiles are not only comparable, but Fyfe actually looks better!

As you can see, Fyfe is tracking at roughly 5/game better than Pendlebury, for the same stage of their careers. (Fyfe has only played 83 H & A games).
Rockliff is also in front of Pendlebury at the 83 game mark, but around 1.6/game behind Fyfe.
Rockliff has played 101 H & A games. Through their first 100 games, Pendlebury averaged 100.46/game, and Rockliff 105.66 (then scored 170 in his 101st game!). For players that started in or after 2005 (SC's first season), I'm not sure too many others have played 100+ games, and averaged 100+ in their first 100 games!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi guys, first post here, have spent a fair bit of time reading through over the past 2 days since I discovered this site and have been very impressed with the depth of research/statistics/discussion. Far outclasses any other SC site i've visited/contributed to in terms of evidence-based opinions, so thank-you!

Just a quick one from me:

I've been strongly considering Mayes, Docherty and Seedsman for my team as a value pick. Which of those would you suggest is most likely to become a keeper and average 88-92?

Hi MC, I'm glad you're enjoying the site.
I haven't completed tables on all 3 players, but here is my "off the top of my head" thoughts.
Mayes - I'm not sure why there is so much love him, apart from people trying to force a bargain into their team. I would have liked to have seen more promising scores in his season last season. 1 x 100+ and 4 x 90-99's doesn't excite me too much. His TOG% of 83.8% doesn't leave much room for improvement, and that's usually one of the easiest one's to improve for a 3rd year player.
Docherty - I like Docherty, and will probably start with him. just like May, *edit/correction - his game time is high (around 84.6%). Apologies, I was looking at his 2013 figure initially. He scored 3 100+'s and 2 90-99's, and he really just seems to have more immediate upside than Mayes.
Seedsman - The Collingwood backline is getting a major make-over. Seedsman has the potential to be a great beneficiary of this, but he's more of a wait and see for mine. His injury history/game count worries me, so I can't back him with any confidence.
To answer your question, the most likely to breakout, in order, are: Docherty, Seedsman, Mayes.

 

[Bob Loblaw]

SIWEL, rules and statistical patterns are made to be broken, and while in most cases they will hold up, the very best players will defy them.
My favourite comparison for Fyfe is Pendlebury. Not because they are similar players, but because their SC profiles are not only comparable, but Fyfe actually looks better!

As you can see, Fyfe is tracking at roughly 5/game better than Pendlebury, for the same stage of their careers. (Fyfe has only played 83 H & A games).
Rockliff is also in front of Pendlebury at the 83 game mark, but around 1.6/game behind Fyfe.
Rockliff has played 101 H & A games. Through their first 100 games, Pendlebury averaged 100.46/game, and Rockliff 105.66 (then scored 170 in his 101st game!). For players that started in or after 2005 (SC's first season), I'm not sure too many others have played 100+ games, and averaged 100+ in their first 100 games!

Love it, Back on the Fyfe train.

Not even Selwood got to the 100 after 100 sitting at an honourable 99.8 after a 17% game time 24 in his 95th games. I reckon Judd would have got their pretty quickly if SuperCoach was around.
Although Wines (87.2 from 44), O'meara (93.4 from 44) and Crouch (90.4 from 25) all look promising.

Crouch is very much slipping under the radar after returning from a broken leg and averaging 102.8 in 9 matches including a 66 during the dead rubber against St. Kilda.

Brad Crouch's ability to shrug off a lack of match fitness to star in the Crows' drought-breaking Showdown win over Port Adelaide has earned the praise of coach Brenton Sanderson.
Crouch racked up 28 disposals and a crucial final-term goal in his first game back from a broken leg suffered early in the season.

"[Crouch] is one of the best young kids in the game, came second by a whisker last year in the Rising Star…he's still not match fit yet either," Sanderson said after the game.
"Really important long-term player for us but we saw today how important for us he is right now as well."

I honestly reckon he has more upside than Wines but I doubt I'll but my trust in a player to score 110 av after only 25 games.

 

[siwel]

SIWEL, rules and statistical patterns are made to be broken, and while in most cases they will hold up, the very best players will defy them.
My favourite comparison for Fyfe is Pendlebury. Not because they are similar players, but because their SC profiles are not only comparable, but Fyfe actually looks better!

As you can see, Fyfe is tracking at roughly 5/game better than Pendlebury, for the same stage of their careers. (Fyfe has only played 83 H & A games).
Rockliff is also in front of Pendlebury at the 83 game mark, but around 1.6/game behind Fyfe.
Rockliff has played 101 H & A games. Through their first 100 games, Pendlebury averaged 100.46/game, and Rockliff 105.66 (then scored 170 in his 101st game!). For players that started in or after 2005 (SC's first season), I'm not sure too many others have played 100+ games, and averaged 100+ in their first 100 games!

He stays! Awesome table and it does show Fyfe's class. To think as well he had a few more inj concerns over that time as well with his shoulders.

 

[siwel]

Hi MC, I'm glad you're enjoying the site.
I haven't completed tables on all 3 players, but here is my "off the top of my head" thoughts.
Mayes - I'm not sure why there is so much love him, apart from people trying to force a bargain into their team. I would have liked to have seen more promising scores in his season last season. 1 x 100+ and 4 x 90-99's doesn't excite me too much. His TOG% of 83.8% doesn't leave much room for improvement, and that's usually one of the easiest one's to improve for a 3rd year player.
To answer your question, the most likely to breakout, in order, are: Docherty, Seedsman, Mayes.

I agree, As a Lions I have been more than a bit suprised with how many people are mentioning Mayes. He is a quality young player but with the additions we have made in the off season this will surely have some effect on his role and output imo

 

[rocknroll]

gday mr Rowsus , will u be publishing any work on players subbed on or off ...last years chart was awesome ...thanks

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Hi Rowsus.

Just wondering what your thoughts on Ryan Griffen are this year.

I see great value in Griffen but I'm finding it really difficult to estimate what he will average and whether he will average enough to be a keeper in the midfield.

What do you think he will average this year?

Thanks mate.

 

[jarrad_]

Hi MC, I'm glad you're enjoying the site.
I haven't completed tables on all 3 players, but here is my "off the top of my head" thoughts.
Mayes - I'm not sure why there is so much love him, apart from people trying to force a bargain into their team. I would have liked to have seen more promising scores in his season last season. 1 x 100+ and 4 x 90-99's doesn't excite me too much. His TOG% of 83.8% doesn't leave much room for improvement, and that's usually one of the easiest one's to improve for a 3rd year player.
Docherty - I like Docherty, and will probably start with him. As opposed to May, he had less than 60% TOG last season, so lots of room for improvement. He scored 3 100+'s and 2 90-99's, and he really just seems to have more immediate upside than Mayes.
Seedsman - The Collingwood backline is getting a major make-over. Seedsman has the potential to be a great beneficiary of this, but he's more of a wait and see for mine. His injury history/game count worries me, so I can't back him with any confidence.
To answer your question, the most likely to breakout, in order, are: Docherty, Seedsman, Mayes.

the reason for this was because he played most of the season in the backline which he apparantly had never done before which would explain the reasoning why he didnt score very well

leppa has said he will be playing mostly forward this season like he did in his first year and scored ok for a first year player and did score very well against freo at subiaco and was one of if not brisbanes best player that night

i.m.o he will still get midfield time due to his size and kicking ability

but could still average maybe a goal and a half a game

 

[chels]

Love it, Back on the Fyfe train.

Not even Selwood got to the 100 after 100 sitting at an honourable 99.8 after a 17% game time 24 in his 95th games. I reckon Judd would have got their pretty quickly if SuperCoach was around.
Although Wines (87.2 from 44), O'meara (93.4 from 44) and Crouch (90.4 from 25) all look promising.

Crouch is very much slipping under the radar after returning from a broken leg and averaging 102.8 in 9 matches including a 66 during the dead rubber against St. Kilda.

Brad Crouch's ability to shrug off a lack of match fitness to star in the Crows' drought-breaking Showdown win over Port Adelaide has earned the praise of coach Brenton Sanderson.
Crouch racked up 28 disposals and a crucial final-term goal in his first game back from a broken leg suffered early in the season.

"[Crouch] is one of the best young kids in the game, came second by a whisker last year in the Rising Star…he's still not match fit yet either," Sanderson said after the game.
"Really important long-term player for us but we saw today how important for us he is right now as well."

I honestly reckon he has more upside than Wines but I doubt I'll but my trust in a player to score 110 av after only 25 games.

Nice point, have a look at post 35 in the thread entitled "The next fantasy' Elite'" for some other basic stats.

 

[MC's Mix]

Hi MC, I'm glad you're enjoying the site.
I haven't completed tables on all 3 players, but here is my "off the top of my head" thoughts.
Mayes - I'm not sure why there is so much love him, apart from people trying to force a bargain into their team. I would have liked to have seen more promising scores in his season last season. 1 x 100+ and 4 x 90-99's doesn't excite me too much. His TOG% of 83.8% doesn't leave much room for improvement, and that's usually one of the easiest one's to improve for a 3rd year player.
Docherty - I like Docherty, and will probably start with him. As opposed to May, he had less than 60% TOG last season, so lots of room for improvement. He scored 3 100+'s and 2 90-99's, and he really just seems to have more immediate upside than Mayes.
Seedsman - The Collingwood backline is getting a major make-over. Seedsman has the potential to be a great beneficiary of this, but he's more of a wait and see for mine. His injury history/game count worries me, so I can't back him with any confidence.
To answer your question, the most likely to breakout, in order, are: Docherty, Seedsman, Mayes.

Thanks!