Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[FirstTimer]

Hi Rowsus ,
After some thoughts on Newnes from the Saints , is he worth considering , i think he has some upside to him but worried about his SC output in a Saints team that isn't strong with lots of young kids that will turn the ball over more times than not , thoughts please..........

Also thoughts on L. Spurr / Ibbotson / Cam Sutcliffe for the Dockers any of them warrant any thoughts in your opinion

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks!

you're welcome. I've had to edit it a little, as I realised I was looking at Docherty's 2013 TOG%.

 

[Rowsus]

Does anyone have any data that shows players who are over 30 or 30 start to drop off supercoach wise with their season averages?

I did some research on this in 2012 (I think, or early 2013).
I looked at players 29 years and older, and started with how they scored when they were 28. Here is the summary of how it looked:
At 28, 63 players involved, they played in 82.8% of the available games, and averaged 87.8 in SC
At 29, 63 players involved, they played in 83.2% of the available games, and averaged 85.9 in SC
At 30, 42 players involved, they played in 79.0% of the available games, and averaged 82.2 in SC
At 31, 22 players involved, they played in 75.9% of the available games, and averaged 85.7 in SC
At 32, 14 players involved, they played in 77.1% of the available games, and averaged 87.2 in SC
At 33, 4 players involved, they played in 74.0% of the available games, and averaged 90.4 in SC
Now, the problem with this analysis is, it only looks at age. It is quite conceivable, that say 3 of the 4 players that averaged 90.4 between them when they played at 33, had actually averaged say 98 at 33, so it doesn't account for how the individuals themselves went in their scoring as they got older. It is more reliable in predicting that older players will miss approximately 2 more games per season than they previously did.
So how does the individuals score deteriorate with age?
Here is a table that shows every player that has scored 110+ in a season of SC, AND played at least one season at the age of 30 or higher.

Keeping in mind, these are mostly players coming off a higher level. The further you have to fall, the more likely you will fall!

There were 29 of these players that played in SC seasons at both 27 and 28.
Overall they averaged 105 at 27, and 13 of the 29 increased their SC average the following year. The average of the 29 players did not change at 28, as they averaged 105 again the next season.

There were 31 of these players that played in SC seasons at both 28 and 29.
Overall they averaged 105 at 28, and 9 of the 31 increased their SC average the following year. The average of the 31 players dropped to 100 the next season.

There were 32 of these players that played in SC seasons at both 29 and 30.
Overall they averaged 100 at 29, and 13 of the 32 increased their SC average the following year. The average of the 32 players dropped to 99 the next season.

There were 28 of these players that played in SC seasons at both 30 and 31.
Overall they averaged 101 at 30, and 9 of the 28 increased their SC average the following year. The average of the 28 players dropped to 95 the next season.

There were 16 of these players that played in SC seasons at both 31 and 32.
Overall they averaged 99 at 31, and 5 of the 16 increased their SC average the following year. The average of the 16 players dropped to 96 the next season.

There were 13 of these players that played in SC seasons at both 32 and 33.
Overall they averaged 97 at 32, and 4 of the 13 increased their SC average the following year. The average of the 13 players dropped to 92 the next season.

There were 8 of these players that played in SC seasons at both 33 and 34.
Overall they averaged 93 at 33, and 3 of the 8 increased their SC average the following season. The average of the 8 players dropped to 85 the next season.

There appears to be a pattern for the players with a higher scoring history, that in any given season, the players over 30 will drop a combined 5/game from their average, but a third of them will actually increase their average from the previous season.

 

[Rowsus]

gday mr Rowsus , will u be publishing any work on players subbed on or off ...last years chart was awesome ...thanks

gday rocknroll,
it's actually not my thread you're thinking of, it is IDIG's. I'm not sure if he is doing it again this year or not.

Here is a link to last years, just so you can check if this is what you meant: A Bargain Hunters Paradise

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus.

Just wondering what your thoughts on Ryan Griffen are this year.

I see great value in Griffen but I'm finding it really difficult to estimate what he will average and whether he will average enough to be a keeper in the midfield.

What do you think he will average this year?

Thanks mate.

Hi BB,
I'm sceptical about him. It took him 7 seasons to break 100, and 9 season's to break 110. He's moved to an inferior side with one possible gun Mid, and a few promising young Mids. There is a lot things that point to his one 110+ season being a spike. I seem to recall he was the leading Midfielder that season for involvement in scoring (chains of possession). Given GWS may struggle to kick lots of goals, there's one area already he needs to find "replacement points" to replicate a 110+ season. I'm backing against him to be 110+, but won't be surprised if he manages 105-108.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus ,
After some thoughts on Newnes from the Saints , is he worth considering , i think he has some upside to him but worried about his SC output in a Saints team that isn't strong with lots of young kids that will turn the ball over more times than not , thoughts please..........

Also thoughts on L. Spurr / Ibbotson / Cam Sutcliffe for the Dockers any of them warrant any thoughts in your opinion

At this stage Newnes will be in my team, and unless things go pear-shaped, I see little downside to selecting him.

Spurr - no
Ibbotson - I won't be risking, one good season that relied heavily one home wins. You can find a table I published on him in the Defenders thread. It was about 6-8 weeks ago now,
Sutcliffe is worth considering, but I won't be having him.

 

[chels]

I did some research on this in 2012 (I think, or early 2013).
I looked at players 29 years and older, and started with how they scored when they were 28. Here is the summary of how it looked:
At 28, 63 players involved, they played in 82.8% of the available games, and averaged 87.8 in SC
At 29, 63 players involved, they played in 83.2% of the available games, and averaged 85.9 in SC
At 30, 42 players involved, they played in 79.0% of the available games, and averaged 82.2 in SC
At 31, 22 players involved, they played in 75.9% of the available games, and averaged 85.7 in SC
At 32, 14 players involved, they played in 77.1% of the available games, and averaged 87.2 in SC
At 33, 4 players involved, they played in 74.0% of the available games, and averaged 90.4 in SC
Now, the problem with this analysis is, it only looks at age. It is quite conceivable, that say 3 of the 4 players that averaged 90.4 between them when they played at 33, had actually averaged say 98 at 33, so it doesn't account for how the individuals themselves went in their scoring as they got older. It is more reliable in predicting that older players will miss approximately 2 more games per season than they previously did.
So how does the individuals score deteriorate with age?
Here is a table that shows every player that has scored 110+ in a season of SC, AND played at least one season at the age of 30 or higher.

Keeping in mind, these are mostly players coming off a higher level. The further you have to fall, the more likely you will fall!

There were 29 of these players that played in SC seasons at both 27 and 28.
Overall they averaged 105 at 27, and 13 of the 29 increased their SC average the following year. The average of the 29 players did not change at 28, as they averaged 105 again the next season.

There were 31 of these players that played in SC seasons at both 28 and 29.
Overall they averaged 105 at 28, and 9 of the 31 increased their SC average the following year. The average of the 31 players dropped to 100 the next season.

There were 32 of these players that played in SC seasons at both 29 and 30.
Overall they averaged 100 at 29, and 13 of the 32 increased their SC average the following year. The average of the 32 players dropped to 99 the next season.

There were 28 of these players that played in SC seasons at both 30 and 31.
Overall they averaged 101 at 30, and 9 of the 28 increased their SC average the following year. The average of the 28 players dropped to 95 the next season.

There were 16 of these players that played in SC seasons at both 31 and 32.
Overall they averaged 99 at 31, and 5 of the 16 increased their SC average the following year. The average of the 16 players dropped to 96 the next season.

There were 13 of these players that played in SC seasons at both 32 and 33.
Overall they averaged 97 at 32, and 4 of the 13 increased their SC average the following year. The average of the 13 players dropped to 92 the next season.

There were 8 of these players that played in SC seasons at both 33 and 34.
Overall they averaged 93 at 33, and 3 of the 8 increased their SC average the following season. The average of the 8 players dropped to 85 the next season.

There appears to be a pattern for the players with a higher scoring history, that in any given season, the players over 30 will drop a combined 5/game from their average, but a third of them will actually increase their average from the previous season.

Fantastic stuff Rowsus - you really, really rock.

You have hinted a couple of times that while the quantitative side is important coupling it with the qualitative side is the next step. What hits me from the table is the question "how did their on field roles change with age?" There are a couple of mids who have spent more time in the back line (Mitchell, NDS) or forward (Bartel) who seem to be have spent more time in newish roles. Perhaps a coach utilising their skills that way enables the player to play another season (or two) without a huge SC drop off? Perhaps a change of club (NDS, Chappy) also helps. This might be more relative for those in keeper leagues rather than SC. BTW, B Goddard ticks all those boxes this year. Boomer is just a freak - we may not see his like again. Hoping a player emulates him may well be a mistake.

A related thought to ponder; we know Swan carried an injury(s) in 2014 and also played a more forward role; or was the more forward role because of injury (i.e., causative)? It is way beyond my knowledge of the game to fill in the qualitative material on more than a few players.

 

[freowho]

Fantastic stuff Rowsus - you really, really rock.

You have hinted a couple of times that while the quantitative side is important coupling it with the qualitative side is the next step. What hits me from the table is the question "how did their on field roles change with age?" There are a couple of mids who have spent more time in the back line (Mitchell, NDS) or forward (Bartel) who seem to be have spent more time in newish roles. Perhaps a coach utilising their skills that way enables the player to play another season (or two) without a huge SC drop off? Perhaps a change of club (NDS, Chappy) also helps. This might be more relative for those in keeper leagues rather than SC. BTW, B Goddard ticks all those boxes this year. Boomer is just a freak - we may not see his like again. Hoping a player emulates him may well be a mistake.

A related thought to ponder; we know Swan carried an injury(s) in 2014 and also played a more forward role; or was the more forward role because of injury (i.e., causative)? It is way beyond my knowledge of the game to fill in the qualitative material on more than a few players.

Goddard seems to score better away from the middle of the ground where he can run off and deliver those 60m bullets. He played forward last year because of injury and had some of his best scores.

 

[The Misfit]

Hi Zagbag,
I haven't done any of my tables on GWS yet. Coniglio certainly started the season well, averaging 103 in the first 5 rounds last season, but dropping off to finish on 83.5. I think there are a few too many Things going against him to be a genuine breakout player this year. The addition of Griffen, and GWS still struggling to win their share of games, or be competitive enough games, are probably the 2 biggest hurdles.
Whitfield appears to be struggling through the pre-season, and I wouldn't seriously consider him until we see how he comes through that.
If you could choose them outside of the Mid area, they might be worth the punt, but as it is, they look like they are just too risky.

In a team full of runners Lachie came 7th in our last 3km time trail run around a week or so ago, why do you feel he is struggling?

 

[Rowsus]

In a team full of runners Lachie came 7th in our last 3km time trail run around a week or so ago, why do you feel he is struggling?

I could be wrong, but I remember reading a few weeks ago his rehab (on his shoulder?) wasn't progressing as they would like. I tried finding it again, but couldn't. Certainly shoulder rehab work might not hinder his time trial results, so it is still possibly correct. I'm happy for anyone with more info to correct one way or the other.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Hey Rowsus. Thanks heaps for the previous responses. You may have gathered that I'm trying to figure out which premiums to go with in the mids this year and I greatly value your input.

Next cab off the rank is Callan Ward. It seems to me that he is the one guy at GWS that isn't affected by the midfield around him. Some of the younger plays seemed to thrive last year when a lot of their gun midfield teammates were out injured. Ward just seems to dominate regardless. I think if anything the addition of Griffen will benefit Ward as he will not attract as much attention from the opposition.

How do you think he will go this year and what are the odds of him joining the 120+ elite club?

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Rowsus. Thanks heaps for the previous responses. You may have gathered that I'm trying to figure out which premiums to go with in the mids this year and I greatly value your input.

Next cab off the rank is Callan Ward. It seems to me that he is the one guy at GWS that isn't affected by the midfield around him. Some of the younger plays seemed to thrive last year when a lot of their gun midfield teammates were out injured. Ward just seems to dominate regardless. I think if anything the addition of Griffen will benefit Ward as he will not attract as much attention from the opposition.

How do you think he will go this year and what are the odds of him joining the 120+ elite club?

Keen to hear your thoughts on this too. Ive got him locked in. I had him last year too and he is just so consistent. I think he can still score higher too. He is a high 80s TOG player and with the couple of injuries last year he was at low 80s. He also only kicked 7 goals so if he can hit the scoreboard more that will boost his score.
With Griffen coming in he should escape the tag for most weeks too which is a bonus.
The only downside I see is that table of yours which doesnt look favourably on him increasing his score.

 

[Mudflap]

Rowsus, I am looking for some value in my backs and keep coming back to Shane Savage. I have not seen many people mention him on here so he would be a unique pick. His end to last season was what has me interested. What are your thoughts on him?

 

[The Misfit]

I could be wrong, but I remember reading a few weeks ago his rehab (on his shoulder?) wasn't progressing as they would like. I tried finding it again, but couldn't. Certainly shoulder rehab work might not hinder his time trial results, so it is still possibly correct. I'm happy for anyone with more info to correct one way or the other.

He was training away from the main group in December to avoid contact, but I believe he is back with the main group this month, he is no longer mentioned in any injury/rehab discussion.
I'll check and update, because fully fit I think he is a genuine chance to improve 20 ppg

Edited to add the clubs response; "Hi Len, Lachie is progressing well. Hopefully you can come watch him train at our open session this Friday at Tom Wills Oval."

 

[dicksilverman]

Hi Rowsus, happy new year!! We're off and running in Supercoach 2015 and my team has already been non-stop tinkered with. One young gun i'd like to consider is Devon Smith. At $490k he seems well priced based on his 91 point average last year and i think he could continue to grow his average. can you let me know any intel that might secure him a spot. I realise there are other options such as Swan and TMitch but i've got them already. cheers mate!

 

[Pearcey47]

Can anyone tell me the price of Jason Holmes from St Kilda? He is the only player missing off my spreadsheet.
Thanks.

 

[bloke]

Hi Row. It's been a while since I posted here. I thought I'd post my reply from the rate my team thread here to get your advice.

DEF: K Simpson, L Hodge, J Newnes, C Pearce, B Waters, H Goddard (M Karpeny, D Voijo-Rainbow)
MID: G Ablett, T Rockliff, N Fyfe, B Gibbs, A Swallow, C Petracca, I Heeney, B Boekhorst (N Cockatoo, J Laverde, D McKenzie)
RUC: M Kreuzer, M Leuenburger (S Durdin)
FWD: R Gray, B Deledio, B Goddard, T Mitchell, T Membrey, M Clarke (D Markworth, C Daniel)

$17,500 left. Players in bold I'm set on. Rookies are placeholders but the more expensive ones I am pretty keen on.

These are the main things I'm contemplating.

-Are my 'risky' players bad choices (Newnes, Pearce, Waters, Gibbs, Swallow, Kreuzer, Luey)?
-Is Rocky the right choice over someone like Pendlebury? Will Brisbane's new midfielders restrict him?
-Do I need at least 1 set ruckman?
-Do I have too many midpricers?
-Is my structure even right?

SO MANY QUESTIONS

Thanks Rowsus

 

[Deeman1]

Can anyone tell me the price of Jason Holmes from St Kilda? He is the only player missing off my spreadsheet.
Thanks.

Im assuming you mean the ruckman, if this is the case he is $123,900.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Can anyone tell me the price of Jason Holmes from St Kilda? He is the only player missing off my spreadsheet.
Thanks.

$123.9k Ruc

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus. Thanks heaps for the previous responses. You may have gathered that I'm trying to figure out which premiums to go with in the mids this year and I greatly value your input.

Next cab off the rank is Callan Ward. It seems to me that he is the one guy at GWS that isn't affected by the midfield around him. Some of the younger plays seemed to thrive last year when a lot of their gun midfield teammates were out injured. Ward just seems to dominate regardless. I think if anything the addition of Griffen will benefit Ward as he will not attract as much attention from the opposition.

How do you think he will go this year and what are the odds of him joining the 120+ elite club?

Hey BB, happy to help.
To be honest, I would be surprised if Ward can make another jump, and get into the 120+ area. There is too much history against it. I am sure you have read my posts in the past week, about players making decent jumps to high averages falling back the next season. For that reason, and also for the reason that, outside of Ablett, only 6 of the 26 120+ seasons recorded have been achieved by a player whose team failed to make the 8! The table shows where each players team finished, when each player achieved their 120+ season.

I think he will experience a small drop this season, something around 111.
To answer your question specifically, I would rate him around an $11 chance to crack 120+ this season.