Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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Rowsus

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hello again mr Rowsus what are ur thoughts on one Daniel Wells
hello again rocknroll, Wells is a no go. Won't produce enough money or points to justify his selection. Never achieved a 105 season and will be 30 this year. Underpriced for what he will produce, but bound to disappoint you, I would think.
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rows,

I'd like to know your thoughts on Harry Taylor.
He started off poorly last year, then came good.
If he had a good start to the year he would've averaged a lot higher than 83 a game.
Is he unders at $446,900?

Thanks
Juzzo
Hey Juzzo,
given the lower expectation Coaches are placing on their D3-6 this season, and the potential for Blicavs to go back as a KPP Def, Taylor potentially is a pretty good choice this season.
 

Rowsus

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Love your work Rowus however I think ward has a few things going in his favour;
His age - 24
The contested role he plays is harder to tag and with griffin arriving he may not even get tagged
Hasn't been in a great team and still scored well
Loves to tackle
If you take out his injury effected games ave 116.2

Personally him going in with the strategy of two premiums that ave over 120 in 2014 and two bw 110 and 120 that show good value and could make the jump

On another note what are your thoughts of Harley Bennell?


2014 ranking 425 however was only concerned with my league wins..
I think Bennell is what I would call a "timing" player. He will in all probability have a strectch of games, where we will all wish we had him, and he will also very likely have stretches of poor scores and/or injury. If you can get the timing right, he will be a beauty. You can ride the points, and the price rise, and then bail out before disaster strikes. Get it wrong, and it could be season over. Puts him in the too hard basket for mine.
 
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Blue Dragons

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Rowsus, can I ask for your insights into Taylor Adams. Not one I had previously considered but report after report is of him "tearing up the pre season" (which I know are to be taken with a grain of salt). Another report also said something along the lines of Adams wanting a mid spot and he wanted to leave Bucks with no doubt and no option but to play him there.

Articles - here and here some good stats in there as well.

At $378,500 and a Fwd/Mid I am looking at him for a spot in my Fwd line in a F4 type of spot
Cheers mate
For what its worth I am mates with Ben Guthrie who wrote one of those articles..he told me that they are grooming Adams to take over Luke Balls role so he should be seeing a lot of time in the guts. They say he has been flying and has been doing a heap of work on his disposal.
 

Rowsus

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What about Lachie Neale?
I've gone a little cool on him. From things I've heard and read, he might be like a genuine Melbourne Cup hope, and needs to build into a campaign. His preseason running hasn't been that great, and maybe he is one of those players that needs matches to become match fit. His season definitely seems to improve the longer it goes. Having said that, while I am cautious that the Ruck changes will affect players like Neale, if in the preseason comp he is at most of the centre bounces, and gets lots of first hands on the ball, I will jump straight back on him.

Yehh, and what about Docherty ? :)
I'm hoping Docherty will make the step from 77 to 93-95, and while that would make him a Def keeper, it's not what I would call a break out season. I tend to think of break out seasons as being a little more spectacular than that. At this stage I will be picking Docherty, but I view Def picks as being decidedly less risky than other areas. I should have made myself clearer, when I said proven players, I was thinking more outside of the Def line.
 

Rowsus

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Rowsus, can I ask for your insights into Taylor Adams. Not one I had previously considered but report after report is of him "tearing up the pre season" (which I know are to be taken with a grain of salt). Another report also said something along the lines of Adams wanting a mid spot and he wanted to leave Bucks with no doubt and no option but to play him there.

Articles - here and here some good stats in there as well.

At $378,500 and a Fwd/Mid I am looking at him for a spot in my Fwd line in a F4 type of spot
Cheers mate
My personal opinion siwel... Unproven player at mid range price ($378,500) is usually a bad idea. He needs to either average 90+ and be a keeper at F6/7 or make 125k+ cash, which means he needs to average 90+ anyway. If you think he can average 90 then sure, if not then i wouldn't bother.
For what its worth I am mates with Ben Guthrie who wrote one of those articles..he told me that they are grooming Adams to take over Luke Balls role so he should be seeing a lot of time in the guts. They say he has been flying and has been doing a heap of work on his disposal.
You certainly wouldn't consider him if he was Mid only, but he could very well fill an F5/6 position, or become a useful F7/M9 swing. I think he could fill a Luke Ball type role, and that Means in SC, as far as the level of his scoring goes, he will probably never make the Mid Keeper level. Even with the strength of the Fwd's this season, I still think there is place for one risky selection, particularly if he can become a DPP, late season back up. Adams is certainly under consideration for that. If he spends a lot of the preseason on the ball, he is probably worth the risk.
 

fodzilla

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Rowsus, how diligent are you in relying on statistical analysis for your own team selection, and how successful has it been for you in the past?
 
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Some basic analysis on Taylor Adams



To my disappointment his TOG% sat at 80.4% last year with his sub games removed. There is room for improvement but only a few %, I was hoping he averaged something like 73-75% and had room for a big increase.

Areas of potential improvement
His DE is one area which he can improve on and this will translate into better SC scores.
Same goes with his tackles and Kick to HB ratio (if he plays more inside mid that may stay the same or drop slightly)
Also goal assist/goals contributed and number of contested possessions. Increases in these areas will help him bump up that SC avg

Just some quick basic stuff but interested to hear what others think
 

Rowsus

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Rowsus, how diligent are you in relying on statistical analysis for your own team selection, and how successful has it been for you in the past?
fod, I would say very diligent. All of my selections are based on statistical analysis, but if you boil it down, so are everyones selections, unless they are picking "favourite players", or using auto-fill.
As to success, I have found some good ones, and also missed some good ones because to my eye their stats didn't shape up. D Swallow last year springs to mind as one of the misses. I have 2 major problems in SC. I take too many risks, and I lack patience. I just have to fiddle, and that's not a good recipe for success.
 
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He was training away from the main group in December to avoid contact, but I believe he is back with the main group this month, he is no longer mentioned in any injury/rehab discussion.
I'll check and update, because fully fit I think he is a genuine chance to improve 20 ppg

Edited to add the clubs response; "Hi Len, Lachie is progressing well. Hopefully you can come watch him train at our open session this Friday at Tom Wills Oval."

He is still not doing contact training, so definitely a "ready" risk atm..
 

Schmicko

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Some basic analysis on Taylor Adams



To my disappointment his TOG% sat at 80.4% last year with his sub games removed. There is room for improvement but only a few %, I was hoping he averaged something like 73-75% and had room for a big increase.

Areas of potential improvement
His DE is one area which he can improve on and this will translate into better SC scores.
Same goes with his tackles and Kick to HB ratio (if he plays more inside mid that may stay the same or drop slightly)
Also goal assist/goals contributed and number of contested possessions. Increases in these areas will help him bump up that SC avg

Just some quick basic stuff but interested to hear what others think
http://m.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-p...-drunk-in-public/story-e6frf3e3-1227196923055

Headline says it all really... not the actions of someone you're hoping will make that 'next step' in their development!
 
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thanks for the lyons reply

how do you think jesse lonergan will go this year??

provides the suns a p.o.d with his contested possessions and looks to be fully fit

and is only 246k
 

Goodie's Guns

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how do you think jesse lonergan will go this year??

provides the suns a p.o.d with his contested possessions and looks to be fully fit

and is only 246k
Is he only a MID??

At $246K spells trouble to me, probably better off picking another rookie that will probably gain more in value.
 
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he's proven that he can score high in the past like in 2013 when he got 105

like last year against st kilda when he got 101 from 16 possesions 3 marks 3 tackles 1 goal

would take that every week admitedly without ablett of course
 
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how do you think jesse lonergan will go this year??
provides the suns a p.o.d with his contested possessions and looks to be fully fit
and is only 246k
he's proven that he can score high in the past like in 2013 when he got 105
like last year against st kilda when he got 101 from 16 possesions 3 marks 3 tackles 1 goal
would take that every week admitedly without ablett of course

Hi jarrad, it's good to see you considering a player not mentioned much so far... Jesse Lonergan $246,700.

NAB Cup will give a clearer idea, but I think as Goodie's Guns said we may have some other Midfield rookie options who will be cheaper and a chance to score just as well. At the moment my most expensive midfield rookie priced player is Jed Anderson, who is $100,000 cheaper at $141,400.

Also, I think Jesse Lonergan may have a bit of competition for a midfield spot.
Besides Ablett, Bennell, Swallow, O'Meara, Prestia and Rischitelli, there's also Russell, Shaw, Sexton, Jack Martin and now Mitch Hallahan.

Not saying he won't get games, but the higher SC scoring midfield opportunities may be tighter for Lonergan with Mitch Hallahan coming to the club.
 
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Hi jarrad, it's good to see you considering a player not mentioned much so far... Jesse Lonergan $246,700.

NAB Cup will give a clearer idea, but I think as Goodie's Guns said we may have some other Midfield rookie options who will be cheaper and a chance to score just as well. At the moment my most expensive midfield rookie priced player is Jed Anderson, who is $100,000 cheaper at $141,400.

Also, I think Jesse Lonergan may have a bit of competition for a midfield spot.
Besides Ablett, Bennell, Swallow, O'Meara, Prestia and Rischitelli, there's also Russell, Shaw, Sexton, Jack Martin and now Mitch Hallahan.

Not saying he won't get games, but the higher SC scoring midfield opportunities may be tighter for Lonergan with Mitch Hallahan coming to the club.
agreed about the competition but as i did mention he does give them a p.o.d with his contested ball winning skills which as proven can be quite good with his sc to dt ratio and obviously they are going to win more games than not this year so the point allocation will be in their favour
 

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Hey Row,

After looking through a lot of teams posted on here it seems like the majority are stacking the forward line with 4-5 premos, 4-5 midfield premos and 2-3 in the backline.

With the backline being so thin, what are your thoughts of doing the opposite and stacking the backline with say 5 keepers and only having the 2 premos to start in the forward line?

Obviously depending how the pre season games go, but it looks like there are better rookie priced options to play forward than back. The top forwards will most likely score better than the top defenders but the rookie priced forwards also look like they will score better than the defenders.

Just a thought..would like to hear what you think.

Thanks!
 

Rowsus

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thanks for the lyons reply

how do you think jesse lonergan will go this year??

provides the suns a p.o.d with his contested possessions and looks to be fully fit

and is only 246k
Is he only a MID??

At $246K spells trouble to me, probably better off picking another rookie that will probably gain more in value.
he's proven that he can score high in the past like in 2013 when he got 105

like last year against st kilda when he got 101 from 16 possesions 3 marks 3 tackles 1 goal

would take that every week admitedly without ablett of course
thanks for the lyons reply

how do you think jesse lonergan will go this year??

provides the suns a p.o.d with his contested possessions and looks to be fully fit

and is only 246k
Is he only a MID??

At $246K spells trouble to me, probably better off picking another rookie that will probably gain more in value.
Hi jarrad, it's good to see you considering a player not mentioned much so far... Jesse Lonergan $246,700.

NAB Cup will give a clearer idea, but I think as Goodie's Guns said we may have some other Midfield rookie options who will be cheaper and a chance to score just as well. At the moment my most expensive midfield rookie priced player is Jed Anderson, who is $100,000 cheaper at $141,400.

Also, I think Jesse Lonergan may have a bit of competition for a midfield spot.
Besides Ablett, Bennell, Swallow, O'Meara, Prestia and Rischitelli, there's also Russell, Shaw, Sexton, Jack Martin and now Mitch Hallahan.

Not saying he won't get games, but the higher SC scoring midfield opportunities may be tighter for Lonergan with Mitch Hallahan coming to the club.

Too many queries means his price is too high to take the risk. Will he escape injury long enough to make enough money? You need him to average around 90, for about 8 games to be a good pick. Is he high enough up the GC pecking order to get some decent Mid time? There are an awful lot of good young Mids on GC's list. His SC average last season was on the back of a TOG% of 66%. That gives him SC/100%TOG of around 69!!! That equals poison! His Dis/100%TOG is around 16-17, once again, that's poison. Lastly, even your example where he scored 101, it's a hollow score. Those stats won't add up to 101 in SC too often, so you have to look at it as a "lucky score", as it is unlikely to be repeated, if he played a similar game again. There must be better priced options than Lonergan.
 
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