Opinion Questions For Rowsus
- Thread starter Rowsus
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Rowsus, I feel like I'm missing something on Docherty. He appears to be a popular pick, so I went back through this thread to see if there was a reason why 
I gather you initially thought he had some TOG upside, which could be a strong argument in his favour, but that he actually had fairly high (mid 80s) TOG last year. No issues with that, but he seems a very different proposition without significant TOG upside.
I haven't seen much of his play, but he seems slightly inexperienced to be right in the breakout zone, has never played close to a full season, and has only four 100s - all small ones, and all against very weak sides.
What is it that you still like about him? I would also be interested in views from others who may be seeing something I am missing. Thanks for any thoughts.
I gather you initially thought he had some TOG upside, which could be a strong argument in his favour, but that he actually had fairly high (mid 80s) TOG last year. No issues with that, but he seems a very different proposition without significant TOG upside.I haven't seen much of his play, but he seems slightly inexperienced to be right in the breakout zone, has never played close to a full season, and has only four 100s - all small ones, and all against very weak sides.
What is it that you still like about him? I would also be interested in views from others who may be seeing something I am missing. Thanks for any thoughts.
I like a few things about Docherty.
I feel he was targetted by Carlton, and that they have an opinion of him, so will give him every opportunity to repay their faith.
I love his K:H ratio of 2.3:1, that is coupled with a Dis Eff of 71.4%. Not many players with high K:H ratios go over 70%, so it is an even better sign in a young player.
I like that he kicked 7 goals, and had nearly as many Inside 50's as Rebound 50's, a good pointer that he was playing up the ground, more than deep in Defence.
I like that he averaged 18.6 Dis/game, that coupled with him seemingly playing more like a H/B Wing, than a stay at home H/B gives me hope he can take a step further this season.
Even though he has only 29 games, he has 3 seasons, coming into his 4th in the AFL system, so his tank should be good now.
All in all, we know there will be a shift in the top 8 Defs again this season, there is every season, and I want to find some young Defs that play higher up the ground, as I think that gives them more upside.
I think people are scared off by a few of things
His high price, coming of a career high 114 Season.
His poor game count: 17, 19, 14, 17, 19, 18 - we all know how hard coverage in Rucks will be this year, can you afford to start a Ruck that misses an average of 5 games/season?
I'm not completely up to date on how the scoring changes will affect Rucks, but it was in my mind with Mumford that:
He had 6 games with ridiculous amounts of hitouts:
Rnd 3 - 60 Vs Melb for 164 SC
Rnd14 - 55 Vs Carl for 152 SC
Rnd 2 - 46 Vs StK for 158 SC
Rnd 11 - 46 Vs Haw for 115 SC
Rnd 22 - 46 Vs Coll for 165 SC
Rnd 1 - 45 Vs Syd for 132 SC
How many were to advantage? I have no idea, but I just get the feeling that games like those will get marked a lot harder this season, unless he gets a lot of Hitouts to advantage, and I just can't see him having 6 45+ Hitout games again this season. He could be a great POD, if he starts with a bang again this season, and he does have StK, Melb, Syd in the 1st 3 games, and Haw, Carl in Rnds 6 and 7, and they can all give up big Ruck scores to opposition Clubs, as we see with Mumford last season.
His high price, coming of a career high 114 Season.
His poor game count: 17, 19, 14, 17, 19, 18 - we all know how hard coverage in Rucks will be this year, can you afford to start a Ruck that misses an average of 5 games/season?
I'm not completely up to date on how the scoring changes will affect Rucks, but it was in my mind with Mumford that:
He had 6 games with ridiculous amounts of hitouts:
Rnd 3 - 60 Vs Melb for 164 SC
Rnd14 - 55 Vs Carl for 152 SC
Rnd 2 - 46 Vs StK for 158 SC
Rnd 11 - 46 Vs Haw for 115 SC
Rnd 22 - 46 Vs Coll for 165 SC
Rnd 1 - 45 Vs Syd for 132 SC
How many were to advantage? I have no idea, but I just get the feeling that games like those will get marked a lot harder this season, unless he gets a lot of Hitouts to advantage, and I just can't see him having 6 45+ Hitout games again this season. He could be a great POD, if he starts with a bang again this season, and he does have StK, Melb, Syd in the 1st 3 games, and Haw, Carl in Rnds 6 and 7, and they can all give up big Ruck scores to opposition Clubs, as we see with Mumford last season.
Seems strange that if Mummy destroys a game with say 50 hitouts of which 30% are deemed effective, he would only get 75 points + change for tackles/disposals etc. So perhaps 110-120. Am I correct in thinking that scaling wouldn't be as influential on rucks now with the new system? So those monster 160+ scores wouldn't happen? Am I missing something here?
The biggest problem I see with SDT, is that his role in the team can vary so much. Sometimes he's playing KPP Def, and sometimes intercept and rebound Def. It all comes down to the vagaries of who else is available as a tall Def that week, and are they playing a team with lots of tall Fwds. He dfeinitely has a high ceiling, but like anyone that can play KPP Def, the floor in his cellar is deep! He's a risky selection, and I'd like to see him a little cheaper before I started him, but he could work out ok.
Nathan,
as you indicated, there are a lot of variables that go into that question, not the least of which is, how will the MN vary this season?
If we assume it follows a similar path to last season, and he scored 125 each and every game, it would look something like this:
Rnd 3 B/E 171 - $689,100 New Price for Rnd 4
Rnd 4 B/E 162 - $672,900 New Price for Rnd 5
Rnd 5 B/E 155 - $659,800 New Price for Rnd 6
Rnd 6 B/E 148 - $649,800 New Price for Rnd 7
Rnd 7 B/E 142 - $642,100 New Price for Rnd 8
Rnd 8 B/E 139 - $636,100 New Price for Rnd 9
Rnd 9 B/E 136 - $631,400 New Price for Rnd 10
Rnd 10 B/E 134 - $627,600 New Price for Rnd 12
as you indicated, there are a lot of variables that go into that question, not the least of which is, how will the MN vary this season?
If we assume it follows a similar path to last season, and he scored 125 each and every game, it would look something like this:
Rnd 3 B/E 171 - $689,100 New Price for Rnd 4
Rnd 4 B/E 162 - $672,900 New Price for Rnd 5
Rnd 5 B/E 155 - $659,800 New Price for Rnd 6
Rnd 6 B/E 148 - $649,800 New Price for Rnd 7
Rnd 7 B/E 142 - $642,100 New Price for Rnd 8
Rnd 8 B/E 139 - $636,100 New Price for Rnd 9
Rnd 9 B/E 136 - $631,400 New Price for Rnd 10
Rnd 10 B/E 134 - $627,600 New Price for Rnd 12
Hey WattsThePoint, welcome aboard.
I think Courtesans is refering to Rohan's ability to butcher the ball, even when seemingly not under pressure (GF pressure not withstanding). I tend to agree with him, and I'm not sure where people are getting the idea that Rohan might take the Malceski role this season. Malceski's greatest asset was/is how well he used the ball, particularly by foot. Rohan doesn't, so I can't see him getting that role. It's not impossible that he could turn out to be a good pick this season, but I just don't see it happening.
I think Courtesans is refering to Rohan's ability to butcher the ball, even when seemingly not under pressure (GF pressure not withstanding). I tend to agree with him, and I'm not sure where people are getting the idea that Rohan might take the Malceski role this season. Malceski's greatest asset was/is how well he used the ball, particularly by foot. Rohan doesn't, so I can't see him getting that role. It's not impossible that he could turn out to be a good pick this season, but I just don't see it happening.
Hey WattsThePoint, welcome aboard.
I think Courtesans is refering to Rohan's ability to butcher the ball, even when seemingly not under pressure (GF pressure not withstanding). I tend to agree with him, and I'm not sure where people are getting the idea that Rohan might take the Malceski role this season. Malceski's greatest asset was/is how well he used the ball, particularly by foot. Rohan doesn't, so I can't see him getting that role. It's not impossible that he could turn out to be a good pick this season, but I just don't see it happening.
I think Courtesans is refering to Rohan's ability to butcher the ball, even when seemingly not under pressure (GF pressure not withstanding). I tend to agree with him, and I'm not sure where people are getting the idea that Rohan might take the Malceski role this season. Malceski's greatest asset was/is how well he used the ball, particularly by foot. Rohan doesn't, so I can't see him getting that role. It's not impossible that he could turn out to be a good pick this season, but I just don't see it happening.
I think that's a good point, and a fail that people are making this season. Some are assuming a Sydney Def will pick up the Malceski points.
Look at Syd's highest scoring Defs in the last 5 seasons:
2014: Malceski 105, McVeigh (D/M) 104, Rampe 76
2013: Malceski 91, Richards 69, Smith 66
2012: Richards 78, Malceski 76, Grundy 75
2011: Grundy 86 (D/F), Spangher 78, Shaw R 77
2010: Malceski 96, Grundy (D/F) 89, Kennelly 79
I wouldn't be surprised if Sydneys top Def this season scored as low 85-87.
Look at Syd's highest scoring Defs in the last 5 seasons:
2014: Malceski 105, McVeigh (D/M) 104, Rampe 76
2013: Malceski 91, Richards 69, Smith 66
2012: Richards 78, Malceski 76, Grundy 75
2011: Grundy 86 (D/F), Spangher 78, Shaw R 77
2010: Malceski 96, Grundy (D/F) 89, Kennelly 79
I wouldn't be surprised if Sydneys top Def this season scored as low 85-87.
I agree Rowsus - its just too demanding for the ruckman...it really is pot luck of some sort. I have Goldstein at the moment, but nervous it could be his turn for an injury!
I keep reading about "injury discounts" - you know how player x is y% cheaper because "he went off early in two games". I reckon a fair chunk of those players have a history of doing that year in year out. I know I paid that penalty a couple of times for Chris Yarran and Cyril Rioli over the past couple of years, a big penalty. But you can be sure, that somewhere this year, those same guys will do it again. SO I reckon a concussed player, early in the game is worth looking at regarding an "injury discount", but not those guys whom are forever injured EVERY year, never filling the 22 game quota.
I keep reading about "injury discounts" - you know how player x is y% cheaper because "he went off early in two games". I reckon a fair chunk of those players have a history of doing that year in year out. I know I paid that penalty a couple of times for Chris Yarran and Cyril Rioli over the past couple of years, a big penalty. But you can be sure, that somewhere this year, those same guys will do it again. SO I reckon a concussed player, early in the game is worth looking at regarding an "injury discount", but not those guys whom are forever injured EVERY year, never filling the 22 game quota.
Quote Originally Posted by Rowsus View Post
Just using history and trends as a guide, I will say none of the top 4 or 5 Rucks will play 22 games this season.
Hi Rowsus, I've really enjoyed your insights over the past year but first time to pose a question:
I'm favouring Nic Nat and Leuenburger with Read as R3 and Ryder in the forwards as I really feel the need for cover (especially early in the season) given the injury history - my guess is he will save me trades as well as points. Last year I had Minson and, whilst he scored miserably, he saved me trades that really helped my overall. But Ryder is probably over priced so my question is what is the cover worth? If Ryder averaged 90 for example would that he still be a worthwhile investment? I know - how long is a piece of string - but I would still value your thoughts on this.
Just using history and trends as a guide, I will say none of the top 4 or 5 Rucks will play 22 games this season.
Hi Rowsus, I've really enjoyed your insights over the past year but first time to pose a question:
I'm favouring Nic Nat and Leuenburger with Read as R3 and Ryder in the forwards as I really feel the need for cover (especially early in the season) given the injury history - my guess is he will save me trades as well as points. Last year I had Minson and, whilst he scored miserably, he saved me trades that really helped my overall. But Ryder is probably over priced so my question is what is the cover worth? If Ryder averaged 90 for example would that he still be a worthwhile investment? I know - how long is a piece of string - but I would still value your thoughts on this.
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