2015: Premium Rucks

[Hondo]

It's interesting that if the concept is set and forget and lock in the best ruckman, why am I not seeing Jacobs in many or even any teams?

I know he's $50K dearer but he averaged a whopping 115, 8-9 ppg > Goldy.

So why the focus only on Goldy? If Jacobs is the pivot point of the ideal set and forget then Goldy becomes a "value" alternative to the likely number 1.

Another way to look at it, if the argument is "don't pick Luey or Kruze because they give up X points per game" does that not apply to Goldy himself giving up 8-9 ppg? Is Luey a stepping stone to Goldy or Jacobs? If Jacobs, and last year's averages follow on to this year, then those "stuck" with Goldy are at a disadvantage, depending on when he times his annual hot runs.

 

[Pinnell]

It's interesting that if the concept is set and forget and lock in the best ruckman, why am I not seeing Jacobs in many or even any teams?

I know he's $50K dearer but he averaged a whopping 115, 8-9 ppg > Goldy.

So why the focus only on Goldy? If Jacobs is the pivot point of the ideal set and forget then Goldy becomes a "value" alternative to the likely number 1.

Another way to look at it, if the argument is "don't pick Luey or Kruze because they give up X points per game" does that not apply to Goldy himself giving up 8-9 ppg? Is Luey a stepping stone to Goldy or Jacobs? If Jacobs, and last year's averages follow on to this year, then those "stuck" with Goldy are at a disadvantage, depending on when he times his annual hot runs.

I think Jacobs has a minor injury issue at the moment which might be hindering his preperation?

 

[Nathan]

It's interesting that if the concept is set and forget and lock in the best ruckman, why am I not seeing Jacobs in many or even any teams?

I know he's $50K dearer but he averaged a whopping 115, 8-9 ppg > Goldy.

So why the focus only on Goldy? If Jacobs is the pivot point of the ideal set and forget then Goldy becomes a "value" alternative to the likely number 1.

Another way to look at it, if the argument is "don't pick Luey or Kruze because they give up X points per game" does that not apply to Goldy himself giving up 8-9 ppg? Is Luey a stepping stone to Goldy or Jacobs? If Jacobs, and last year's averages follow on to this year, then those "stuck" with Goldy are at a disadvantage, depending on when he times his annual hot runs.

Goldstein has a better scoring history,

Jacobs
2011 19 92.7
2012 21 102.1
2013 22 85.3
2014 22 115.4

Goldstein
2011 21 113.2
2012 20 93.0
2013 22 113.5
2014 21 106.9

Goldstein injured his shoulder round 1, played out game but couldn't lift preferred arm at all.
In last 14 games last season (including finals) Goldstein averaged 125. It's no contest for mine.

 

[Slugus]

It's interesting that if the concept is set and forget and lock in the best ruckman, why am I not seeing Jacobs in many or even any teams?

I know he's $50K dearer but he averaged a whopping 115, 8-9 ppg > Goldy.

So why the focus only on Goldy? If Jacobs is the pivot point of the ideal set and forget then Goldy becomes a "value" alternative to the likely number 1.

Another way to look at it, if the argument is "don't pick Luey or Kruze because they give up X points per game" does that not apply to Goldy himself giving up 8-9 ppg? Is Luey a stepping stone to Goldy or Jacobs? If Jacobs, and last year's averages follow on to this year, then those "stuck" with Goldy are at a disadvantage, depending on when he times his annual hot runs.

I know its sort of a stupid argument, but the truth is that the top rucks of the previous year never are the top rucks the following year. So history says that Jacobs will drop below 100 and out of the top 5 scoring rucks, so you are paying top dollar and hoping to break a very real trend in super coach history. I don't see him as the "likely" number 1 and I think Nic Nat and Goldy are more likely to take the mantle in 2015

 

[Hondo]

Goldstein has a better scoring history,

Jacobs
2011 19 92.7
2012 21 102.1
2013 22 85.3
2014 22 115.4

Goldstein
2011 21 113.2
2012 20 93.0
2013 22 113.5
2014 21 106.9

Goldstein injured his shoulder round 1, played out game but couldn't lift preferred arm at all.
In last 14 games last season (including finals) Goldstein averaged 125. It's no contest for mine.

Don't forget Jacobs had an injury affected game as well. R11 subbed off at half time for 57. Take that game out and he averaged 118 last year. That's heading towards premium mid territory.

Over his last 12 games after getting subbed off Jacobs averaged 125 as well.

I'm not going for either play at this stage I'm just challenging why he is not in more teams if the goal is getting the best 2 ruckman in your team.

 

[Hondo]

I know its sort of a stupid argument, but the truth is that the top rucks of the previous year never are the top rucks the following year. So history says that Jacobs will drop below 100 and out of the top 5 scoring rucks, so you are paying top dollar and hoping to break a very real trend in super coach history. I don't see him as the "likely" number 1 and I think Nic Nat and Goldy are more likely to take the mantle in 2015

So why is Goldy so popular ?

I am not against Goldy BTW I am just testing some assumptions getting made.

 

[Grant]

It's interesting that if the concept is set and forget and lock in the best ruckman, why am I not seeing Jacobs in many or even any teams?

I know he's $50K dearer but he averaged a whopping 115, 8-9 ppg > Goldy.

So why the focus only on Goldy? If Jacobs is the pivot point of the ideal set and forget then Goldy becomes a "value" alternative to the likely number 1.

Another way to look at it, if the argument is "don't pick Luey or Kruze because they give up X points per game" does that not apply to Goldy himself giving up 8-9 ppg? Is Luey a stepping stone to Goldy or Jacobs? If Jacobs, and last year's averages follow on to this year, then those "stuck" with Goldy are at a disadvantage, depending on when he times his annual hot runs.

If you were confident Jacobs would replicate his 2014 numbers then the vast majority of people would pick him. Rucks are a different breed though that lack season by season consistency at the top level.

 

[malbi]

It's interesting that if the concept is set and forget and lock in the best ruckman, why am I not seeing Jacobs in many or even any teams?

It is because most other people believe that there is better value elsewhere. You barrack for Adelaide. So naturally you favour Jacobs and you have a bias in what you say on the topic. I personally am going to start with under-priced rucks and hope that they improve in value (and no I am not picking Kreuzer). So it is a different value system and a different strategy. That is the reason. Most people believe there is better value in Goldstein. Others like Nic Nat. Others like Kreuzer and Burger, yada yada.

 

[Jurn Stern]

Ruck Info:

Goldstein scored tons against the following teams in 2014 regular season:
Gold Coast, Brisbane (2), Richmond, Adelaide (2), Melbourne, St.Kilda, Geelong, GWS, Western Bulldogs

He is a classic flat track bully from the looks of that. With the help of Erich's draw analysis (thanks Erich), we can see that one game against bottom tier teams before the bye, and four after. They also play 4 top tier teams before the bye, and only 2 after.

Jacobs was far more consistent than this, but also had his best season to date. Rucks (and in the case of his scoring jump, players in general) do not back up the following year. Jacobs worst games in 2014 were against Port, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs and North. Adelaide may have an easy draw, but they come up against these 4 teams in the first 6 games on 2015. Just a once off you say??? His worst averages against teams in 2013 came against North and the Western Bulldogs. It certainly seems he struggles against good, body work rucks.

Scoring changes will hurt all rucks, mark my words. Starting with the highest priced rucks is a bad idea, unless you estimate they will average 110+ and play 22 games. Make your money work for you, don't invest in an asset that you know will be disadvantaged.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

I don't mind the thought of starting with one of the value ruck options in Kreuzer or Leuenberger but I am becoming more and more anxious about needing a RUC/FWD link in my starting side. I think Bellchambers is good value but I can't stand seeing him in my forward line and he is injury prone just like Kreuzer and Leuey. Lycett is awkwardly priced, will be second ruck and I don't think he'll average enough to be a keeper. Ryder has to be an upgrade target as he adjusts to his new team.

So I think if I was to pick either Kreuzer or Leuey then I would be taking the risk of no RUC/FWD link and just hoping for the best. Perhaps my rucks will need to last say 7 rounds until I upgrade a rookie and bring in Ryder who will hopefully be hitting his straps and cheaper than his starting price.

Is anybody else thinking of starting one of Leuey/Kreuzer without a RUC/FWD link?

 

[BigRuss]

I don't mind the thought of starting with one of the value ruck options in Kreuzer or Leuenberger but I am becoming more and more anxious about needing a RUC/FWD link in my starting side. I think Bellchambers is good value but I can't stand seeing him in my forward line and he is injury prone just like Kreuzer and Leuey. Lycett is awkwardly priced, will be second ruck and I don't think he'll average enough to be a keeper. Ryder has to be an upgrade target as he adjusts to his new team.

So I think if I was to pick either Kreuzer or Leuey then I would be taking the risk of no RUC/FWD link and just hoping for the best. Perhaps my rucks will need to last say 7 rounds until I upgrade a rookie and bring in Ryder who will hopefully be hitting his straps and cheaper than his starting price.

Is anybody else thinking of starting one of Leuey/Kreuzer without a RUC/FWD link?

I've been pretty hot on set and forget this pre season but I'm starting to waiver. If I do go with Kreuz or Berger I'll be keeping at least 120k in the kitty in case of an early injury.

The only way I'd take F/R cover is if I take both of them.

 

[Jurn Stern]

I don't mind the thought of starting with one of the value ruck options in Kreuzer or Leuenberger but I am becoming more and more anxious about needing a RUC/FWD link in my starting side. I think Bellchambers is good value but I can't stand seeing him in my forward line and he is injury prone just like Kreuzer and Leuey. Lycett is awkwardly priced, will be second ruck and I don't think he'll average enough to be a keeper. Ryder has to be an upgrade target as he adjusts to his new team.

So I think if I was to pick either Kreuzer or Leuey then I would be taking the risk of no RUC/FWD link and just hoping for the best. Perhaps my rucks will need to last say 7 rounds until I upgrade a rookie and bring in Ryder who will hopefully be hitting his straps and cheaper than his starting price.

Is anybody else thinking of starting one of Leuey/Kreuzer without a RUC/FWD link?

I'm in the same boat mate, and did a big write up about my concerns and ideas.

I am thinking about starting one of Leuey/Kreuzer/Bellchambers at R2. I think one of them will be in my side, it'll just depend on which seems to have the firmest grip on a solo ruck job at their respective club.

 

[Hondo]

Ruck Info:

Goldstein scored tons against the following teams in 2014 regular season:
Gold Coast, Brisbane (2), Richmond, Adelaide (2), Melbourne, St.Kilda, Geelong, GWS, Western Bulldogs

He is a classic flat track bully from the looks of that. With the help of Erich's draw analysis (thanks Erich), we can see that one game against bottom tier teams before the bye, and four after. They also play 4 top tier teams before the bye, and only 2 after.

Jacobs was far more consistent than this, but also had his best season to date. Rucks (and in the case of his scoring jump, players in general) do not back up the following year. Jacobs worst games in 2014 were against Port, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs and North. Adelaide may have an easy draw, but they come up against these 4 teams in the first 6 games on 2015. Just a once off you say??? His worst averages against teams in 2013 came against North and the Western Bulldogs. It certainly seems he struggles against good, body work rucks.

Scoring changes will hurt all rucks, mark my words. Starting with the highest priced rucks is a bad idea, unless you estimate they will average 110+ and play 22 games. Make your money work for you, don't invest in an asset that you know will be disadvantaged.

Great analysis. FWIW, in the Gold Coast game Jacobs was subbed off at half time with injury.

So in conclusion I think you are recommending to not start Jacobs or Goldy. Is that right? And/or that Goldy is a better upgrade target with a better SOS in the second half of the year?

 

[Hondo]

It is because most other people believe that there is better value elsewhere. You barrack for Adelaide. So naturally you favour Jacobs and you have a bias in what you say on the topic. I personally am going to start with under-priced rucks and hope that they improve in value (and no I am not picking Kreuzer). So it is a different value system and a different strategy. That is the reason. Most people believe there is better value in Goldstein. Others like Nic Nat. Others like Kreuzer and Burger, yada yada.

No, I think Jacobs is too much money to invest straight up. You've misunderstood me if you think I am recommending picking him.

I was challenging why the "set and forget" strategy seems to be generally ignoring Jacobs who averaged almost 10ppg more last year. It's not as though Goldy as an alternative is $100K cheaper. It's only about $50K difference. From early assessments of the scoring changes Jacobs looks least likely to be affected and arguably set up for even higher scores.

At this stage I am not picking Jacobs or Goldy. NicNat and Leuy are my current starters. Last year I picked Jacobs and Sandi at similar price points.

I don't like going for fully priced rucks to start as a general rule.

 

[Jurn Stern]

Great analysis. FWIW, in the Gold Coast game Jacobs was subbed off at half time with injury.

So in conclusion I think you are recommending to not start Jacobs or Goldy. Is that right? And/or that Goldy is a better upgrade target with a better SOS in the second half of the year?

Duly noted on the sub game.

I wouldn't recommended selecting rucks this year at all if it were possible. It isn't however, so I would suggest accessing each of the premium rucks fully. I don't want to tell people not to pick a player, I just want the assessment of why they are selected to be solid.

Instead of just judging on 2014 season scores alone, look at starting price, pre and post bye draw, likelihood to play above 20 games, home games scores vs away games scores, and be sure to include the thought that unless they start at unders from what we can reasonably assume they will deliver (i.e. Berger, Kreuzer, and to some extent Nic Nat), they will drop in output and price.

Final note: If there is one 2014 premium ruckman from in the competition that can improve in output this year (even with the scoring changes) it is Todd Goldstein. Same coach, same team, same competition from within his team, 3 years of premium output, regularly plays above 20 games. Sam Jacobs has new coach, new competition (L.Lowden) and only 1 year of premium output.

 

[Nathan]

Ruck Info:

Goldstein scored tons against the following teams in 2014 regular season:
Gold Coast, Brisbane (2), Richmond, Adelaide (2), Melbourne, St.Kilda, Geelong, GWS, Western Bulldogs

He is a classic flat track bully from the looks of that. With the help of Erich's draw analysis (thanks Erich), we can see that one game against bottom tier teams before the bye, and four after. They also play 4 top tier teams before the bye, and only 2 after.



Jacobs was far more consistent than this, but also had his best season to date. Rucks (and in the case of his scoring jump, players in general) do not back up the following year. Jacobs worst games in 2014 were against Port, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs and North. Adelaide may have an easy draw, but they come up against these 4 teams in the first 6 games on 2015. Just a once off you say??? His worst averages against teams in 2013 came against North and the Western Bulldogs. It certainly seems he struggles against good, body work rucks.

Scoring changes will hurt all rucks, mark my words. Starting with the highest priced rucks is a bad idea, unless you estimate they will average 110+ and play 22 games. Make your money work for you, don't invest in an asset that you know will be disadvantaged.

Scoring tons against Jacobs, Mumford, Minson doesn't make Goldstein a FTB.

 

[Hondo]

Final note: If there is one 2014 premium ruckman from in the competition that can improve in output this year (even with the scoring changes) it is Todd Goldstein. Same coach, same team, same competition from within his team, 3 years of premium output, regularly plays above 20 games. Sam Jacobs has new coach, new competition (L.Lowden) and only 1 year of premium output.

TBH, I'm not sure Lowden is any greater threat to Jacobs than Currie is to Goldy. And I don't see a new coach being too much of an issue but time will tell.

I think people forget that in 2013 Jacobs was hampered with injury all year and by his own admission was struggling to move properly for the whole season. He was over those issues last pre season and that's why some of us picked him because prior to 2013 we had a nice upward trend. The leap of faith required was to ignore the injury affected 85.1 in 2013. If he was fully fit that year and gone between 101 to 115 and we wouldn't be having these doubts.

So across their career Sauce has 2 years over 100 (not 1) and Goldy 3. If you count Goldy's 106 last year as "premium output" then you should allow Sauce his 101.2 in 2012

I'm still not picking Jacobs ha ha I just feel like I am being brainwashed into how Goldy is so much of a better pick. I don't think he is.

 

[IDIG]

I've been pretty hot on set and forget this pre season but I'm starting to waiver. If I do go with Kreuz or Berger I'll be keeping at least 120k in the kitty in case of an early injury.

The only way I'd take F/R cover is if I take both of them.

With ya Russ. If I start both Kreuz/Berger, it'll be coin in the bank or R/F cover. I'd probably lean R/F cover (TBC) but with 3 returning from injury with question marks on their time in ruck, it just feels like a headache or 3 waiting to happen.

Out of curiosity, have you considered Ryder as your R/F cover?

 

[Jurn Stern]

Scoring tons against Jacobs, Mumford, Minson doesn't make Goldstein a FTB.

By the definition of a FTB from this site it does.

Only 100 and 102 vs Adelaide.
Minson is a one year premo, at best he is a reasonable ruckman.
Highest scores of 166, 166 and 143 from 20 disposals (highest disposal count for year) vs Richmond, St.Kilda and GWS. Finds a lot of easy pill against against teams that are around the bottom of the ladder. Richmond were 4th bottom at the time.

 

[Jurn Stern]

So across their career Sauce has 2 years over 100 (not 1) and Goldy 3. If you count Goldy's 106 last year as "premium output" then you should allow Sauce his 101.2 in 2012

I'm still not picking Jacobs ha ha I just feel like I am being brainwashed into how Goldy is so much of a better pick. I don't think he is.

Agreed, I'm probably Goldy bias a tad (though I don't know why).

106.9 is a lot more premium than 102.1.
And two 113's make for a solid case.

Time will tell. I'll be happy to be proven wrong by Jacobs this year, as it would mean we have found a reliable premium ruck option with the new rules.