2015: Premium Rucks

[TeeButOne]

No, I think Jacobs is too much money to invest straight up. You've misunderstood me if you think I am recommending picking him.

I was challenging why the "set and forget" strategy seems to be generally ignoring Jacobs who averaged almost 10ppg more last year. It's not as though Goldy as an alternative is $100K cheaper. It's only about $50K difference. From early assessments of the scoring changes Jacobs looks least likely to be affected and arguably set up for even higher scores.

At this stage I am not picking Jacobs or Goldy. NicNat and Leuy are my current starters. Last year I picked Jacobs and Sandi at similar price points.

I don't like going for fully priced rucks to start as a general rule.

I think the reason people (incl. myself) are keen on Goldstein is his consistency. PLUS, he's not really only $50k cheaper, as he had a troubling start to last year, but then got his mojo back:

2013: Averaged 113
2014 (1st half): Averaged 86 (early season shoulder injuries I believe / poor form)
2014 (2nd half): Averaged 125
2014: Averaged 107

He's clearly proven that he is a 115 player, so being priced at only 107 is quite a bargain.

 

[whiteTiga2k]

Have you guys considered Ivan Maric? Didn't he finish off the season really well?

 

[whiteTiga2k]

With ya Russ. If I start both Kreuz/Berger, it'll be coin in the bank or R/F cover. I'd probably lean R/F cover (TBC) but with 3 returning from injury with question marks on their time in ruck, it just feels like a headache or 3 waiting to happen.

Out of curiosity, have you considered Ryder as your R/F cover?

Hi IDIG

How is Bellchambers tracking this year? Do you think he or Giles will get first ruck role?

 

[IDIG]

Hi IDIG

How is Bellchambers tracking this year? Do you think he or Giles will get first ruck role?

Pretty sure he's ahead of schedule but i reckon Giles will almost certainly play number 1 ruck. Something like an 80/20 split early as he builds match fitness.

 

[Nathan]

Pretty sure he's ahead of schedule but i reckon Giles will almost certainly play number 1 ruck. Something like an 80/20 split early as he builds match fitness.

Carlisle struggling too doesn't help his cause.

 

[IDIG]

Carlisle struggling too doesn't help his cause.

Oh yes that's right. Almost guarantees he will spend most of his time deep forward which pretty much makes him sc irrelevant.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

If ASADed out probably all mute points in any case.
Bellchambers I think the second player on my never again list.
Giles would not touch in a zillion years.
Best of luck to those that tries them out.

 

[Zimmer]

Pretty sure he's ahead of schedule but i reckon Giles will almost certainly play number 1 ruck. Something like an 80/20 split early as he builds match fitness.

From the sounds of it, Giles is a bit behind on fitness as well.

 

[Zim^zuM]

Agreed, I'm probably Goldy bias a tad (though I don't know why).

106.9 is a lot more premium than 102.1.
And two 113's make for a solid case.

Time will tell. I'll be happy to be proven wrong by Jacobs this year, as it would mean we have found a reliable premium ruck option with the new rules.

Don't forget Goldsteins poor back up season and scores have often been when he is not the loan ruck. In 2013 HMAC was back in the picture.

 

[Zim^zuM]

Currie also played 3 of the first 5 games last season, Daw after that. To me it looks like Currie is only an option if Goldstein doesnt play, and Daw with his personal life wouldnt be playing anytime soon I assume

 

[IDIG]

From the sounds of it, Giles is a bit behind on fitness as well.

Ooh hadn't heard that. Maybe McKernan might be worth a look

 

[GrainFedBeef]

I like the Maths.

The change in ruck scoring doesn't make premiums less appealing just because they are overvalued. It also means value plays don't go up by as much. If you assume leuy and kreuzer don't win as many taps as say a goldy then they Go up less than before, so the value difference becomes less.

Yes, there is value in both kreuzer and leuy but neither have solid track records staying on the park. Putting in insurance at r3 defeats the point. If a r/f was to fire it would be fine however. The track record isn't there. If u have to trade he value is destroyed.

To me, there may be better value if Tom Mitchell looks the goods vs kreuzer or leuy, just because they are not on the same line is irrelevant. There is only so many risks you may want to take. If either leuy or kreuzer had better track records or were best of breed before injury te decision would be easier. All subject to how they all look in nab cup of course.

 

[malbi]

No, I think Jacobs is too much money to invest straight up. You've misunderstood me if you think I am recommending picking him.

My apologies. I thought you were. I think the last ruckman where "set and forget" was valid was when Dean Cox was in his prime. The last couple of years the ruckman have had good years and bad years with many of them succumbing to injuries. So picking a premium ruckman for "set and forget" in the last couple of years was asking for a form drop or injury. Given the change in scoring it seems more than ever that underpriced ruckmen are the way to go.

 

[anfa18]

Sandilands?

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl...tart-this-season/story-e6frf3e3-1227209414701

Average SuperCoach scores for first five rounds 2010-2014:

1. Gary Ablett (Geelong/GC) — 140.3 (22 matches) $734,600
2. Scott Pendlebury (Coll) — 124.9 (25) $668,800
3. Aaron Sandilands (Frem) — 119.2 (19) $580,800
4. Dane Swan (Coll) — 117.3 (25) $464,500
5. Matthew Boyd (WB) — 115.6 (20) $526,200

He's the only ruckman in the top 25 from that list. Even if he loses 10ppg due to the ruck scoring changes, 110 average in the first 5 games could be very handy. After those first 5 games, if he could average just 95 for the rest of the season he will end with an average of 98.75 from (20 games).

round 1 vs Port Adelaide at home (Ryder and Lobbe).
round 2 vs Geelong at away (McIntosh, Simpson and Blicavs).
round 3 vs West Coast (Naitanui and Lycett).
round 4 vs Sydney at home (Pyke and rookie maybe).
round 5 vs Melbourne at away (Jamar, Gawn, Spencer or whoever isn't injured).


An early stint while the rucks figure themselves out or for the season, could he be a good pick? He will lose value just like all of the premium rucks, but could he be worth the risk early on? What do people think of him this year?

 

[Hondo]

Pretty sure he's ahead of schedule but i reckon Giles will almost certainly play number 1 ruck. Something like an 80/20 split early as he builds match fitness.

I've heard different views on this issue of Giles v Bellchambers. Is this your gut feel or you've got inside word? Also, where does Daniher fit into the mix as well. Do all 3 play in the same team?

Is Giles really that good?

 

[Nathan]

HS ruck article
http://m.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl...-and-who-to-pick/story-fni5f3gz-1227209409376

 

[IDIG]

I've heard different views on this issue of Giles v Bellchambers. Is this your gut feel or you've got inside word? Also, where does Daniher fit into the mix as well. Do all 3 play in the same team?

Is Giles really that good?

Yeah 100% gut feel.

But for me, it would be play all 3 with Giles spending most of his time in the ruck, TBC deep forward and JD high. Not sure where Carlisle fits in that equation though?

HS ruck article
http://m.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl...-and-who-to-pick/story-fni5f3gz-1227209409376

I only skimmed this but he doesn't seem to mention the -3 for hit out to disadvantage? Or has this change in scoring not been confirmed yet? I don't think i made that up in my head...lol

 

[IDIG]

Sandilands?

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl...tart-this-season/story-e6frf3e3-1227209414701

Average SuperCoach scores for first five rounds 2010-2014:

1. Gary Ablett (Geelong/GC) — 140.3 (22 matches) $734,600
2. Scott Pendlebury (Coll) — 124.9 (25) $668,800
3. Aaron Sandilands (Frem) — 119.2 (19) $580,800
4. Dane Swan (Coll) — 117.3 (25) $464,500
5. Matthew Boyd (WB) — 115.6 (20) $526,200

He's the only ruckman in the top 25 from that list. Even if he loses 10ppg due to the ruck scoring changes, 110 average in the first 5 games could be very handy. After those first 5 games, if he could average just 95 for the rest of the season he will end with an average of 98.75 from (20 games).

round 1 vs Port Adelaide at home (Ryder and Lobbe).
round 2 vs Geelong at away (McIntosh, Simpson and Blicavs).
round 3 vs West Coast (Naitanui and Lycett).
round 4 vs Sydney at home (Pyke and rookie maybe).
round 5 vs Melbourne at away (Jamar, Gawn, Spencer or whoever isn't injured).


An early stint while the rucks figure themselves out or for the season, could he be a good pick? He will lose value just like all of the premium rucks, but could he be worth the risk early on? What do people think of him this year?

I think Sandi largely depends on if he is punished for hitouts to disadvantage. Him losing the 1pt for hit outs should hurt him but at the same time the increase in points for hit outs to advantage should cancel that out.

One thing you know with Sandi is he'll be pretty consistent and if he's foot issues are behind him, you might have a decent POD as well as i haven't seen his name in many teams.

 

[Nathan]

Yeah 100% gut feel.

But for me, it would be play all 3 with Giles spending most of his time in the ruck, TBC deep forward and JD high. Not sure where Carlisle fits in that equation though?




I only skimmed this but he doesn't seem to mention the -3 for hit out to disadvantage? Or has this change in scoring not been confirmed yet? I don't think i made that up in my head...lol

-points not in Prospectus haven't read it on HS so I assume it's not happening. Jock/SuperCoach Page site are prone to reporting incorrect information.

 

[IDIG]

-points not in Prospectus so I assume it's not happening. Jock/SuperCoach Page site are prone to reporting incorrect information.

Wow that changes everything for me. I've been thinking this whole time that -points was confirmed, in turn making all rucks overpriced (more than they already are) but if the gap between their starting price and average req'd is not as great as first thought, that probably puts the 500ker's back in front for mine... with the trades we save that we always seem to run out of in mind.