2015: Premium Rucks

[OzRulesFootball]

Ozrules, I'll stand corrected but at this stage I can't accept the new ruck rules make a number one ruck no better than a Harry Cunningham type. I reckon you are low balling the starting point of 80.

We've seen rookie rucks belt out 90+ like Smith, Nicholls and Giles. Geez stef Martin goes from scrub to stud when handed that number one role.

Not sure where you get Harry Cunningham as a comparison. Cunningham averaged 60, nothing like 80 and a 60 for midfield is so far off base line of consideration it is not relevant to SC game. You got to realize a ruckman is already in engine room of game. In any case I see you do not accept 80 as a new base line. That was not my idea of SC threshold for a ruck by the way. It is what I meant for a club in AFL to have a base line of 80 from their ruck in champion data ranking system. If they under probably not impacting game enough to keep their spot which is my definition of base line. For SC itself it is a fantasy game. Threshold for consideration needs to be higher. As for 80 figure itself simply a ball park figure. I have not looked into with any stats but see a bit of them playing FDL. Just a figure off top of my head in thinking if 10% off the average for most rucks then an 89 average in past system looking to probably be 80 in newer system. Some will not be victims on new system so much if good with taps out to advantage and others with poor taps to advantage could fall further.
You only looking at about 18 to 20 rucks that probably 90 or over in past seasons so about one each club on average. Their number 1 ruck should have been expected to get that much. I'm sure Rowsus will enlighten us much further as he has looked into ruck stats in serious detail in past.
The main thing to realize is ultimately we will not know for sure until enough rounds into season give evidence of new trends.

 

[Hondo]

Thanks ozrules. With that further explanation I think we are in closer agreement than I thought on "number one rucks". Cunningham was just an example off the top of my head of someone averaging a poorly 72. Not a good example as it turns out

This is why I think any number one ruck at $300k needs a second look at least. I'd be thinking 90 or higher if you think they can hold their spot. That's the price point that Maric busted out from when he finally got the same opportunity. Giles, Smith and Nicholls also like I mentioned before.

It used to be that a number one ruck seemed to get 90-100 just for turning up almost. They just naturally get involved in the game a lot.

 

[Juzzo]

It looks like we all might burn a trade or 2 on rucks. So why not start with low priced rucks and upgrade when we know how the scoring system works in reality. Should be able to trade in top rucks at a reduced starting price.

 

[Nathan]

It looks like we all might burn a trade or 2 on rucks. So why not start with low priced rucks and upgrade when we know how the scoring system works in reality. Should be able to trade in top rucks at a reduced starting price.

The money saved doesn't get me anything I like so I'm starting Goldy/Nicnat

 

[Juzzo]

The money saved doesn't get me anything I like so I'm starting Goldy/Nicnat

Fair enough, money saved could get me smith in defence instead of rookie, but still might pike out and get 2 proven rucks, 50/50 for me at this stage.

 

[chels]

It looks like we all might burn a trade or 2 on rucks. So why not start with low priced rucks and upgrade when we know how the scoring system works in reality. Should be able to trade in top rucks at a reduced starting price.

Three rounds of NAB Cup games should give a decent basis to assess how the scoring system works - that one area many will focus on during and after the games to try to better understand how ruck scores are being compiled. I suspect the very top teams in SC value trades highly and will have got the ruck decision correct at the start of the season.

 

[Rowsus]

It looks like we all might burn a trade or 2 on rucks. So why not start with low priced rucks and upgrade when we know how the scoring system works in reality. Should be able to trade in top rucks at a reduced starting price.

If you start with 2 low priced Rucks, you are locking in that you will need to use a minimum of two trades on Rucks, and more likely three or four, and in bad scenarios five or more, depending on your willingness to eat a donut or two there.
If you start with a 1/1, or a 2/0 strategy, you potentialy save a trade or two from the above scenario.
In short, starting two "value" Rucks, unless they both take off become Keepers, which is highly unlikely, gives you no chance whatsoever to save trades in your Ruck.

 

[Hondo]

I tend to agree. I am not keen on two value rucks however if they are your only 2 mid pricers AND they've allowed you to get 2 extra keepers elsewhere you could argue the trades spent on the rucks are o***et by the trades saved on upgrading in the other spots.

Man, with some of these backlines I can see a heap of trading in defence this year.

For me it's the worry about where to turn if one cops a LTI early.

 

[Drew]

If you start with 2 low priced Rucks, you are locking in that you will need to use a minimum of two trades on Rucks, and more likely three or four, and in bad scenarios five or more, depending on your willingness to eat a donut or two there.
If you start with a 1/1, or a 2/0 strategy, you potentialy save a trade or two from the above scenario.
In short, starting two "value" Rucks, unless they both take off become Keepers, which is highly unlikely, gives you no chance whatsoever to save trades in your Ruck.

I'm going 1/1 at this point Rowsus, namely Jacobs and Luenburger, what are your plans mate, 1/1 or 2/0?

 

[Bob Loblaw]

It looks like we all might burn a trade or 2 on rucks. So why not start with low priced rucks and upgrade when we know how the scoring system works in reality. Should be able to trade in top rucks at a reduced starting price.

If you start with 2 low priced Rucks, you are locking in that you will need to use a minimum of two trades on Rucks, and more likely three or four, and in bad scenarios five or more, depending on your willingness to eat a donut or two there.
If you start with a 1/1, or a 2/0 strategy, you potentialy save a trade or two from the above scenario.
In short, starting two "value" Rucks, unless they both take off become Keepers, which is highly unlikely, gives you no chance whatsoever to save trades in your Ruck.

Think the argument here is that if you accept that a trade in each of your rucks is inevitable (or near enough), at least with midpricers at the point of a trade you have made money rather than lost it (with money saved initially by going with midpricers going towards points elsewhere in the ground). And if for example your midpriced ruckmen make it to the bye you cash in and buy premiums.

If Lue and Nic Nat both get injured in round 10 lets say it would feel better trading Luenburger to Goldstein (Upgrade) rather than Nic-Nat to Goldstein (Sideways).

The injury prone premium ruckmen you pick up will have only have the final 12 rounds to be injured in rather than 23 reducing likelihood of sidwaysing a premium. Essentially those 2 trades to upgrade midpriced ruckmen are simply shifted from possibly two trades you would need to make elsewhere in the ground to generate cash but also reduce the possibility of sidewaysing a premium (as ruckmen are more likely to be injured.)

Obviously the primary concern is output of Lue or Kreuz of which I am not convinced but am giving more and more thought to each day.

 

[Brettthejett]

Will be starting Nic Nat and one of luey or goldy

 

[anfa18]

The rucks seem to be the hardest line to settle on at this stage of the year. Last season i started with Jacobs and Sandilands and didn't make a ruck trade all season. To try and help my mind settle on a structure this year, i made a pros and cons list.

option 1: 2 mid pricers - This is the ultimate "value" option.
pros: very low starting price, able to strengthen other lines with cash saved, allows you to see how the rucks are performing.
cons: likely lower scoring capabilities, forced to start a forward dpp for cover, resound to making 2 or 3 trades and possibly 1 more in the forward line, hard to trade in a premium ruck without a decent amount of spare cash.

option 2: 1 premium and 1 mid pricer - This seems to be the most popular choice at the moment.
pros: good amount of points and still conservative in price, allows you to see which rucks are inform before trading one in.
cons: start a dpp or not? resound to 1 trade and possibly 2 if the dpp under performs.

option 3: 2 premiums - This option is the opposite of "value".
pros: likely high amount of points, possibly save 1 or 2 trades, easy sideways trade if the player gets injured, no dpp required.
cons: high starting price, injuries can still happen.

Options 2 and 3 seem the best in my opinion and i'm slightly leaning towards option 3 right now. However, i have far from settled on which i will go with... Back to research sigh!!

 

[Nathan]

option 3: 2 premiums - This option is the opposite of "value".
pros: likely high amount of points, possibly save 1 or 2 trades

The only point that matters for me.

 

[madmunza]

Will be starting Nic Nat and one of luey or goldy

Exact same, Nic Nat a must and I'll monitor Luey in Nab

 

[darkshines]

When in doubt, jab out. Im just not comfortable with the effect on fwd line of starting a Ryder (who has burned me before) or a Lycett (who hasnt had enough continuity to trust).

Two premos for me. And then pick the (preferably DPP) rook with the best game prospects. Probably Wright?

 

[Dynamo]

Herald Sun - Luey.

“A lot has changed since I was playing regularly, Stefan Martin has come on the scene and he was incredible last year and now it’s just about trying to figure out a partnership with him.

“I have been a bit used to playing one out when I’ve been fit so I’ve just got to adapt to having someone else there in Stef because he’s just too good to not have in there.”

With the 197cm Martin and former Geelong premiership player Trent West also in his squad, Leppitsch is set to switch the big bodies between the ruck and up forward, something Leuenberger said he was looking forward to.

“I haven’t really had a good crack there before. There may have been two or three games where I have played a bit up forward as opposed to ruck so it might take a bit of time,” he said.

“But I’ve been putting in a bit of time trying to build my skills for up forward so if I can get a rest up there and kick one or two a game then that’d be pretty nice.”

In his second year at the helm, Leppitsch said a healthy Leuenberger meant a lot to his side.

“You talk about a ruck combination and when they’re up and going and you get first use of the football that can be the game,” he said.

“We saw in the grand final, you can have a forward like Lance Franklin but if you get starved of opportunity it’s pointless. With him and Stef firing, given the quality of our midfield it really does put pressure on the opposition’s defence.”

The Lions’ first NAB Challenge match is against St Kilda in Burpengary on February 28 before facing Sydney in Co*** Harbour on March 6 and the Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium on March 20.

 

[Rowsus]

I'm going 1/1 at this point Rowsus, namely Jacobs and Luenburger, what are your plans mate, 1/1 or 2/0?

NicNat coupled with one of Sandi/Goldy or Leuey. So the only thing I can say is, not 0/2. Right now, it is Leuey, which is giving me an extra Prem on another line.

 

[Drew]

Hmm yeah NicNat is very tempting, i wouldn't mind going NicNat and Jacobs but don't have the cash left now in my teams current draft, see how the preseason looks with Luey, if he's looking ok i think i'll run with him at his "value" pricing.

 

[Braider]

Hmm yeah NicNat is very tempting, i wouldn't mind going NicNat and Jacobs but don't have the cash left now in my teams current draft, see how the preseason looks with Luey, if he's looking ok i think i'll run with him at his "value" pricing.

I'll never understand how people settle for a compromised solution for their starting side, if you "wouldn't mind going" something, change it up and make it happen. We have $10,000,000 and unlimited trades. No offence Drew

 

[Bob Loblaw]

Hello, Just wondering what the general consensus is with the Kreuzer, Warnock, Wood conundrum??????

Because for me;
Kreuzer in Ruck = Lock
Kreuzer up forward = Spud

His 2013


Online article outtake September 2013 - Carlton Ruckman Matthew Kreuzer is in doubt for Saturday night's semi-final against Sydney as he battles a calf complaint. Kreuzer was seen limping in the Visy Park carpark on Tuesday and did not join in on-field training on Wednesday.

"He took a kick to the calf early in Sunday's stunning elimination-final win over Richmond but, despite being clearly hampered, was able to return to the field and play out the match

As seen here Kreuzer clearly plays better without Warnock, as #1 ruck, and Warnock was used in 2013 to lessen the load when coming off an injury."

Obviously next year is a whole different ball game.

Heres an outake from this article written 2 days ago. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/carlton-and-matthew-kreuzer-to-wait-until-the-season-starts-before-opening-contract-talks/story-fni5f5nx-1227214996193

"Coach Mick Malthouse has already expressed hope the no. 1 pick of the 2007 national draft might reclaim his mantle as a quality ruckman.

The club has tried at times to push Kreuzer forward but he has only 56 goals from his 106 games and seems better suited as a tough ruckman with great second efforts.

Despite the departure of Jarrad Waite to North Melbourne the Blues still believe they have enough tall timber to threaten rivals this year.

Lachie Henderson will play as the club’s focal point up forward, with Levi Casboult and ex-Western Bulldog Liam Jones fellow attacking key talls.

Sam Rowe, Michael Jamieson and new recruits Kristian Jaksch and Blaine Boekhorst will share the key defensive roles, while Cameron Wood and Warnock will push Kreuzer for the rucking spot."