2015: Premium Rucks

[Rowsus]

With all the conjecture on how the new Ruck scoring Rules will affect how the Rucks will score, has there been any thought given to which players get a lot of 3rd man up hitouts? How will this affect their scoring? Try these for some surprising number of Hit Outs recorded in 2014:
Jordan Lewis 81
Ollie Wines 62
Callan Ward 38
Brad Ebert 35
David Swallow 29
Patrick Dangerfield 28
Nathan Fyfe 27

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Hello, Just wondering what the general consensus is with the Kreuzer, Warnock, Wood conundrum??????

Heres an outake from this article written 2 days ago. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/carlton-and-matthew-kreuzer-to-wait-until-the-season-starts-before-opening-contract-talks/story-fni5f5nx-1227214996193

"Coach Mick Malthouse has already expressed hope the no. 1 pick of the 2007 national draft might reclaim his mantle as a quality ruckman.

The club has tried at times to push Kreuzer forward but he has only 56 goals from his 106 games and seems better suited as a tough ruckman with great second efforts.

Despite the departure of Jarrad Waite to North Melbourne the Blues still believe they have enough tall timber to threaten rivals this year.

Lachie Henderson will play as the club’s focal point up forward, with Levi Casboult and ex-Western Bulldog Liam Jones fellow attacking key talls.

Sam Rowe, Michael Jamieson and new recruits Kristian Jaksch and Blaine Boekhorst will share the key defensive roles, while Cameron Wood and Warnock will push Kreuzer for the rucking spot."

Not sure where these comments are from but let me tell you, 185cm rookie Blaine Boekhurst has as much chance of playing a key defensive role as Eddie Betts has playing in ruck for Crows.

For Carlton I expect Kruezer in ruck. Malthouse has soft spot for Wood so at some stage expect him to get a game or three when Kruezer takes a week or two off somewhere during the season. Warnock is a 200 plus centimetre giant that is good tap ruckman but virtually no marking presence or much else so I expect him to play out most of year in VFL team unless Malthouse is feeling sorry for him or by some miracle Warnock learns to do more than tap ruck and actually contribute at AFL level. I personally would hope common sense prevails and Kruezer plays 80% of time in ruck, Casboult gives him a break about 15% of time and Rowe jumps in the remainder of time anyone is needed. Hopefully Warnock and Wood rarely needed and there just for back up on our list if anything major happened to Kruezer again!!! Please no.
I know Malthouse mentioned Kruezer playing up forward but I expect common sense prevails and that is just short stints when he taking a rest from ruck workload. He is too good being in heat of action as a follower to waste up forward. He is not the best tap ruckman but he is great value in general just being in the following division. He is not called The Tractor for nothing.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

With all the conjecture on how the new Ruck scoring Rules will affect how the Rucks will score, has there been any thought given to which players get a lot of 3rd man up hitouts? How will this affect their scoring? Try these for some surprising number of Hit Outs recorded in 2014:
Jordan Lewis 81
Ollie Wines 62
Callan Ward 38
Brad Ebert 35
David Swallow 29
Patrick Dangerfield 28
Nathan Fyfe 27

Interesting pick up there Rowsus.
Although Jordan Lewis not really on anyones radar for SC so probably won't matter much.
Wines though more interesting as some wanting him to jump up his average to be relevant but he also got a few points there he maybe no longer will get.

 

[THCLT]

Anyone thinks T Goldstein can continue his recent pattern of putting in another 'close to season' best performance this year, he seems to love putting on a show in the odd years?
His recent season average SC scores for the H&A games reads:
2011 - average 113
2012 - average 93
2013 - average 114
2014 - average 107
Last year was a bit of an anomaly in that he had a phenomenal end to the year, registering 10 out of a possible 11 scores of 100+ (including 2x166) from RD12 onwards before sitting out the last game against Melb. His average during this 'hot streak' was a remarkable 125.5, boosting his season average from 86.4 prior to RD12 to a whopping 106.9 at season end. His back half of the season has traditionally been stronger if not equal to the front half, but has never translate to a +20pts differential. This all bode well for him entering the 2015 season, especially with North pushing hard towards the upper echelon of the ladder.

I know that the new Ruck scoring rules will affect his overall output, as with all other ruckman to some extent, but I'm struggling to come up with a reason to exclude him from my starting team. I would love for him to sit at R1 alongside Naitanui at R2, but have to compromise one of the other lines to achieve this. Also, being a North supporter contribute some unhealthy bias towards the decision making process.

Please tell me that I'm not the only one struggling with these thoughts

 

[Philzsay]

Your not the only one THCLT. I had Goldstein as R1 before the ruck scoring changes were leaked.

I'm essential waiting for the Nab Challenge to get a better understanding of how much the scoring changes will affect the premiums before deciding which strategy to go.

 

[Grant]

Anyone thinks T Goldstein can continue his recent pattern of putting in another 'close to season' best performance this year, he seems to love putting on a show in the odd years?
His recent season average SC scores for the H&A games reads:
2011 - average 113
2012 - average 93
2013 - average 114
2014 - average 107
Last year was a bit of an anomaly in that he had a phenomenal end to the year, registering 10 out of a possible 11 scores of 100+ (including 2x166) from RD12 onwards before sitting out the last game against Melb. His average during this 'hot streak' was a remarkable 125.5, boosting his season average from 86.4 prior to RD12 to a whopping 106.9 at season end. His back half of the season has traditionally been stronger if not equal to the front half, but has never translate to a +20pts differential. This all bode well for him entering the 2015 season, especially with North pushing hard towards the upper echelon of the ladder.

I know that the new Ruck scoring rules will affect his overall output, as with all other ruckman to some extent, but I'm struggling to come up with a reason to exclude him from my starting team. I would love for him to sit at R1 alongside Naitanui at R2, but have to compromise one of the other lines to achieve this. Also, being a North supporter contribute some unhealthy bias towards the decision making process.

Please tell me that I'm not the only one struggling with these thoughts

There is no real reason not to pick him. Definitely the most reliable option over 500k. He is one of the best hta players so the new rules will only help him. Remember it's only the comparative scoring changes that matter. If he scores 5pts less because of the new ruck scoring but others lose 10pts then that is a 5pt advantage not a 5pt deficit.

I've been fairly set on Leuenberger and Naitanui myself so far but I'm quite tempted to pick Goldstein due to his durability and consistency.

 

[Nathan]

Anyone thinks T Goldstein can continue his recent pattern of putting in another 'close to season' best performance this year, he seems to love putting on a show in the odd years?
His recent season average SC scores for the H&A games reads:
2011 - average 113
2012 - average 93
2013 - average 114
2014 - average 107
Last year was a bit of an anomaly in that he had a phenomenal end to the year, registering 10 out of a possible 11 scores of 100+ (including 2x166) from RD12 onwards before sitting out the last game against Melb. His average during this 'hot streak' was a remarkable 125.5, boosting his season average from 86.4 prior to RD12 to a whopping 106.9 at season end. His back half of the season has traditionally been stronger if not equal to the front half, but has never translate to a +20pts differential. This all bode well for him entering the 2015 season, especially with North pushing hard towards the upper echelon of the ladder.

I know that the new Ruck scoring rules will affect his overall output, as with all other ruckman to some extent, but I'm struggling to come up with a reason to exclude him from my starting team. I would love for him to sit at R1 alongside Naitanui at R2, but have to compromise one of the other lines to achieve this. Also, being a North supporter contribute some unhealthy bias towards the decision making process.

Please tell me that I'm not the only one struggling with these thoughts

I'm going Goldy/Nicnat and think I've done it without compromising any lines.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I'm going Goldy/Nicnat and think I've done it without compromising any lines.

Same here. Both have been locked in since mid Jan.

 

[BigRuss]

With ya Russ. If I start both Kreuz/Berger, it'll be coin in the bank or R/F cover. I'd probably lean R/F cover (TBC) but with 3 returning from injury with question marks on their time in ruck, it just feels like a headache or 3 waiting to happen.

Out of curiosity, have you considered Ryder as your R/F cover?

Nah mate I need to see how Ryder fits into the team first. I think Lobbe still holds the #1 position with about a 65/35 split which isn't ideal. He's a real workhorse but not a great contested grab. Ryder well and truly stitches him up in marking practice hence I think he spends more time forward.

To be fair Paddy had shown he's a more then capable forward wouldn't be surprised if he gives 30-35 goals a shake this year so he may make up lost points there.

I'm almost 100% sold on Lycett as my cover In all honesty. I may even still take him if I go down the set and forget route at F4. Kid can play and he'd be the #1 ruck at a lot of Melbourne based clubs I'd wager.

I've put a lot of thought into rucks this year, even more so then usual and I've come to the conclusion that I think the ruckman who suffer the most are going to be the ones with big hit out numbers, so to me seems logical to pick the ones who don't rely on hit outs for scoring. Can eliminate quite a few blokes if you follow that line of thinking.

 

[_Slip_]

Hi Guys

I have seen no mention of Big Boy McEvoy. Nicely priced after a few injuries last year and he is the Hawks number 1 ruck. I can see him returning to 95-105 pp. Why us there no mention of him so far? The top 10 rucks fluctuate every year so he has to be strongly considered in my opinion.

Thoughts?

 

[BigRuss]

Hi Guys

I have seen no mention of Big Boy McEvoy. Nicely priced after a few injuries last year and he is the Hawks number 1 ruck. I can see him returning to 95-105 pp. Why us there no mention of him so far? The top 10 rucks fluctuate every year so he has to be strongly considered in my opinion.

Thoughts?

Sits at R2 for me at the moment mate he's the prime example of ruckman who don't need hitouts to score.

He is quite an average ruckman in all fairness 27.2% at 20.8 per game means about 5-6 to adv per game.

Ranked 8th in contested marks per game last year on the back of an injury plagued year. More fitness and a bit of continuity in his game and who knows where he'll end up.

Full pre season, right age bracket (26 in July) infinitely better ruck coach in Monkhorst which could help his tap work, Much better midfield. All positive signs if you ask me. As far as value picks go I think he's of the better choices.

 

[Nathan]

Sits at R2 for me at the moment mate he's the prime example of ruckman who don't need hitouts to score.

He is quite an average ruckman in all fairness 27.2% at 20.8 per game means about 5-6 to adv per game.

Ranked 8th in contested marks per game last year on the back of an injury plagued year. More fitness and a bit of continuity in his game and who knows where he'll end up.

Full pre season, right age bracket (26 in July) infinitely better ruck coach in Monkhorst which could help his tap work, Much better midfield. All positive signs if you ask me. As far as value picks go I think he's of the better choices.

I'm guessing you have Nicnat at R1 then?

 

[BigRuss]

I'm guessing you have Nicnat at R1 then?

Still somewhat decided on R1 but Nic Nat definitely fits the bill.

 

[happydays]

Anyone had a decent look at Tom Nicholls?

 

[_Slip_]

Anyone had a decent look at Tom Nicholls?

Pass mate too unproven and with Smith back who knows what will happen.

 

[Prochard]

currently having Goldstein+ another ruck over Nic Nat atm

 

[happydays]

Pass mate too unproven and with Smith back who knows what will happen.

I am not too worried about Smith. I think he has Smith covered. I have considered as a POD to parter a premium, but currently he is not in my team.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

I'm thinking about Nic Nat and Leuey with no coverage. Is that too crazy?

It allows me to go very heavy in defence with rookies on bench only..

 

[jobeywatto]

Goldstein - Natanui (Cox)

Lock and load.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

and weigh down...