When we use the term Value in SuperCoach, we generally mean a Bargain, however value could also mean what we believe something is Worth.
In the Loose Change article, we discussed value as in a bargain found in Value Priced Players. However, in this article, I will be focusing on the value of a cash cow, ie the worth of a cash cow. However, asking someone an open ended question like 'what is the value of a cash cow' is like asking someone 'how long is a piece of string'? The answer is we don't know as the answer will vary depending on our 'subjective' views and this depends on our different circumstances.
With the strong interest received from the articles Floating Donut and Sam Dwyer, I now think rather than asking whether to adopt the Floating Donut strategy, we should ask the question 'what is the alternative to the floating donut?'. The alternative to the Floating Donut is obviously the cash cow we forgo or sacrifice.
We know we will be sacrificing a cash cow, but the important question is what is the cash cow's worth or what is the cash cow's value?
I won't go into specifics and won't get into Bean Counting Stuff, however generally our initial SuperCoach team will have about 12 to 15 premiums. Perhaps, our initial SuperCoach team will have 3 to 6 mid-priced players and therefore we have about 12 rookies; give or take 2 rookies.
Now let's assume we have 12 rookies in our SuperCoach team and remember the equation: Team Floating Donut with Sam Dwyer versus Team Cash Cow with Cash Cow. Before we discuss the value of the cash cow, I need to highlight that your decision of whether to have a Floating Donut, may be effected by how many premiums you intend to have in your Engine Room. A few possible scenarios of the midfield with well known rookies are:
Let's assume your midfield in your initial SuperCoach team has 5 premiums (or 5 non-rookies) and 5 rookies and Hrovat is your worst rookie. The question is what is the worth of Hrovat, ie what is the worth of the alternative to the floating donut? Note the worth is not the price of Hrovat, as when we use Hrovat to generate cash, we need to bring in another player, thus the worth is the net change in Hrovat's price.
We can throw up a few numbers such as $100K, $150K, $200K, $250K and even $300K. However, let's use $200K (with Hrovat's price of $300K) as the worth. Naturally, Hrovat may be worth $300K (with Hrovat's price of $400K), but on the other end of the spectrum, Hrovat could be worth $100K (with Hrovat's price of $200K); remember Tom Liberatore and Clay Smith? Now before you say why are we choosing Hrovat, well let's just say my Supercoach team with the floating donut strategy will have all of K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara, Viney before Hrovat and thus by default Hrovat would be the Delta.
Okay, so Hrovat is worth $200K, but what does that actually mean?
A team with an additional $200K to the initial SuperCoach team ($10.2M) would be a great advantage to the standard SuperCoach team ($10M) as you get an extra premium at the start of the year, thus the additional premium should theoretically give additional points from round 1. However, assuming Hrovat is worth $200K, it would actually take you to round 6-7 to get the benefit of the $200K as you have to wait until Hrovat reaches $300K in price.
Now if at round 6-7, you get to upgrade Hrovat to a premium then the extra points you will gain will be 25-50 points from round 6-7.
However, remember you can only make 2 trades per round, so that means you can't obviously upgrade all of K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara, Viney, Hvorat in one round, ie round 6-7. If you upgrade any of K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara, Viney, Hvorat to a premium in round 6-7, Team Floating Donut will also upgrade the rookies and therefore for round 6 to 9, any upgrade from Team Cash Cow is negated by an upgrade from Team Floating Donut. Only until round 9-10 does Team Cash Cow get the benefit of Hrovat's worth and note the benefit usually only last until round 15 as by them most team will have a team full of premiums.
Now I am trying to be objective as possible, to give you an 'all things being equal' analysis.
While we don't know who is the worst of the rookies and I understand that Hrovat could also be the best rookie compared to K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara and Viney. However, if we knew Hrovat would be the best rookie, then of course Team Floating Donut would pick Hrovat before of K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara, Viney. However, the fact is we don't know who is the worst of the rookies.
In deciding on whether to choose the Floating Donut, you will need to assess what is the value of the alternative of the Floating Donut, ie the rookie you forgo. Now you can't just pick any rookie and hope it's the best rookie. You need to decide who is the worst of the all your midfield donuts and then assess what its worth or value against the possible gains of the Floating Donut.
For me, the benefit of the Floating Donut is worth it. In many years of SuperCoach, I know the amount of points I've loss on picking the wrong captain and the wrong starter, ie a lot of points. Thus for me, I have no hesitation choosing a Floating Donut over choosing a potential cash cow.
I completely understand if people decide not to pick Sam Dwyer or even a Floating Donut for reasons such as more premiums in the Engine Room. I won't even try to convince you to choose the Floating Donut over the sacrificed Cash Cow. I think if you have 6 or so premiums in the Engine Room, you can avoid picking Sam Dwyer, but my view is you should still pick a Floating Donut in other positions.
However, you need to have a think about what is the cash cow is worth and apply the value or worth to your team and compare it to the Floating Donut.
I asked previously in another thread, however in round 1, you need to ask yourself: who is your captain, vice captain and will Crouch start on the bench or on the field? For me: Crouch(e), Ablett(vc), Pendlebury(c). Will you have Crouch on the ground if named? Will you have Ablett as a captain or vice captain? If you have Cotchin as your vice and he scores 160, will you keep his score and bring in a floating donut or will still make Ablett captain? I'm just raising the question, but it's for you to answer to yourself.
I'll respond to a few questions asked:
Fair point and it is up to each individual on taking this approach. Of course, you can have more than one floating donut. The floating donut in the rucks appears to only be for the Captain loophole, but you don't get the benefit of the Emergency Player loophole.
The benefit isn't about starting Dwyer or having him on the bench, it's about having a free hit at a rookie's or a captain's score. The rookie you are not sure of say, Crouch(e) starts on the bench. If Crouch(e) does well then Dwyer comes into play and everything is negated with non Floating Donut teams. However, if Crouch(e) fails then every team has Crouch's score, but I won't have Crouch as I'll keep Crouch on the bench. For example, I then have Daniher(e) on the bench and if Daniher does bad, then every team has Daniher's score, but I avoid him. Now if either Crouch and/or Daniher does well, then I'll just play Dwyer and everything is negated. Dwyer would not be on the bench if I'm taking advantage of the loophole as if my vice-capt Ablett does well, Dwyer goes on the field as the captain, so I get Ablett's score. If Ablett has a shocker, then I simply pick Pendlebury as captain.
In the Loose Change article, we discussed value as in a bargain found in Value Priced Players. However, in this article, I will be focusing on the value of a cash cow, ie the worth of a cash cow. However, asking someone an open ended question like 'what is the value of a cash cow' is like asking someone 'how long is a piece of string'? The answer is we don't know as the answer will vary depending on our 'subjective' views and this depends on our different circumstances.
With the strong interest received from the articles Floating Donut and Sam Dwyer, I now think rather than asking whether to adopt the Floating Donut strategy, we should ask the question 'what is the alternative to the floating donut?'. The alternative to the Floating Donut is obviously the cash cow we forgo or sacrifice.
We know we will be sacrificing a cash cow, but the important question is what is the cash cow's worth or what is the cash cow's value?
I won't go into specifics and won't get into Bean Counting Stuff, however generally our initial SuperCoach team will have about 12 to 15 premiums. Perhaps, our initial SuperCoach team will have 3 to 6 mid-priced players and therefore we have about 12 rookies; give or take 2 rookies.
Now let's assume we have 12 rookies in our SuperCoach team and remember the equation: Team Floating Donut with Sam Dwyer versus Team Cash Cow with Cash Cow. Before we discuss the value of the cash cow, I need to highlight that your decision of whether to have a Floating Donut, may be effected by how many premiums you intend to have in your Engine Room. A few possible scenarios of the midfield with well known rookies are:
- 4 Premiums (or 4 non-rookies) - M1, M2, M3, M3, M4, K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara, Viney (Hrovat, Dwyer)
- 5 Premiums (or 5 non-rookies) - M1, M2, M3, M3, M4, M5, K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara (Viney, Hvorat)
- 6 Premiums (or 6 non-rookies) - M1, M2, M3, M3, M4, M5, M6, K.Mitchell, Crouch (O'Meara, Viney)
- 7 Premiums (or 7 non-rookies) - M1, M2, M3, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7, K.Mitchell (Crouch, O'Meara) [Viney or alternative is out]
Let's assume your midfield in your initial SuperCoach team has 5 premiums (or 5 non-rookies) and 5 rookies and Hrovat is your worst rookie. The question is what is the worth of Hrovat, ie what is the worth of the alternative to the floating donut? Note the worth is not the price of Hrovat, as when we use Hrovat to generate cash, we need to bring in another player, thus the worth is the net change in Hrovat's price.
We can throw up a few numbers such as $100K, $150K, $200K, $250K and even $300K. However, let's use $200K (with Hrovat's price of $300K) as the worth. Naturally, Hrovat may be worth $300K (with Hrovat's price of $400K), but on the other end of the spectrum, Hrovat could be worth $100K (with Hrovat's price of $200K); remember Tom Liberatore and Clay Smith? Now before you say why are we choosing Hrovat, well let's just say my Supercoach team with the floating donut strategy will have all of K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara, Viney before Hrovat and thus by default Hrovat would be the Delta.
Okay, so Hrovat is worth $200K, but what does that actually mean?
A team with an additional $200K to the initial SuperCoach team ($10.2M) would be a great advantage to the standard SuperCoach team ($10M) as you get an extra premium at the start of the year, thus the additional premium should theoretically give additional points from round 1. However, assuming Hrovat is worth $200K, it would actually take you to round 6-7 to get the benefit of the $200K as you have to wait until Hrovat reaches $300K in price.
Now if at round 6-7, you get to upgrade Hrovat to a premium then the extra points you will gain will be 25-50 points from round 6-7.
However, remember you can only make 2 trades per round, so that means you can't obviously upgrade all of K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara, Viney, Hvorat in one round, ie round 6-7. If you upgrade any of K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara, Viney, Hvorat to a premium in round 6-7, Team Floating Donut will also upgrade the rookies and therefore for round 6 to 9, any upgrade from Team Cash Cow is negated by an upgrade from Team Floating Donut. Only until round 9-10 does Team Cash Cow get the benefit of Hrovat's worth and note the benefit usually only last until round 15 as by them most team will have a team full of premiums.
Now I am trying to be objective as possible, to give you an 'all things being equal' analysis.
While we don't know who is the worst of the rookies and I understand that Hrovat could also be the best rookie compared to K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara and Viney. However, if we knew Hrovat would be the best rookie, then of course Team Floating Donut would pick Hrovat before of K.Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara, Viney. However, the fact is we don't know who is the worst of the rookies.
In deciding on whether to choose the Floating Donut, you will need to assess what is the value of the alternative of the Floating Donut, ie the rookie you forgo. Now you can't just pick any rookie and hope it's the best rookie. You need to decide who is the worst of the all your midfield donuts and then assess what its worth or value against the possible gains of the Floating Donut.
For me, the benefit of the Floating Donut is worth it. In many years of SuperCoach, I know the amount of points I've loss on picking the wrong captain and the wrong starter, ie a lot of points. Thus for me, I have no hesitation choosing a Floating Donut over choosing a potential cash cow.
I completely understand if people decide not to pick Sam Dwyer or even a Floating Donut for reasons such as more premiums in the Engine Room. I won't even try to convince you to choose the Floating Donut over the sacrificed Cash Cow. I think if you have 6 or so premiums in the Engine Room, you can avoid picking Sam Dwyer, but my view is you should still pick a Floating Donut in other positions.
However, you need to have a think about what is the cash cow is worth and apply the value or worth to your team and compare it to the Floating Donut.
I asked previously in another thread, however in round 1, you need to ask yourself: who is your captain, vice captain and will Crouch start on the bench or on the field? For me: Crouch(e), Ablett(vc), Pendlebury(c). Will you have Crouch on the ground if named? Will you have Ablett as a captain or vice captain? If you have Cotchin as your vice and he scores 160, will you keep his score and bring in a floating donut or will still make Ablett captain? I'm just raising the question, but it's for you to answer to yourself.
I'll respond to a few questions asked:
Fair point and it is up to each individual on taking this approach. Of course, you can have more than one floating donut. The floating donut in the rucks appears to only be for the Captain loophole, but you don't get the benefit of the Emergency Player loophole.
The benefit isn't about starting Dwyer or having him on the bench, it's about having a free hit at a rookie's or a captain's score. The rookie you are not sure of say, Crouch(e) starts on the bench. If Crouch(e) does well then Dwyer comes into play and everything is negated with non Floating Donut teams. However, if Crouch(e) fails then every team has Crouch's score, but I won't have Crouch as I'll keep Crouch on the bench. For example, I then have Daniher(e) on the bench and if Daniher does bad, then every team has Daniher's score, but I avoid him. Now if either Crouch and/or Daniher does well, then I'll just play Dwyer and everything is negated. Dwyer would not be on the bench if I'm taking advantage of the loophole as if my vice-capt Ablett does well, Dwyer goes on the field as the captain, so I get Ablett's score. If Ablett has a shocker, then I simply pick Pendlebury as captain.
