Analysis Value of a Cash Cow?

[johno686]

Great article and as i said in the other thread, i'll be 100% running with a floating donut after seeing its benefits in the BBL. Colquhuon as Goodie's mentioned is a chance to get games so in a strategy that is meant to eliminate risks adding an element of risk is probably not in team floating donut's best interest.

How much we'll actually gain is anyone's guess but in a game that's generally decided by 100 points or so i'll take every advantage i can take. It's not to say that teams that perma capt Gaz and make solid starting rookie selections can't win the overall, it's just that those that have two bites at the cherry have a distinct advantage week in, week out. It may only gain you 10 pts some weeks (or none at all) but it's the weeks that it gains you 100 which will happen once or twice (imo) where the true benefit will be seen.

With the sc app, team sheets, subs, etc so easily available as well as word of mouth, live telecasts i can't see why you wouldn't consider it. It's just too easy these days to gain this advantage.

Cricket is a little different then our game but. One ball is all it takes and your captain gets next to nothing. Plus not every round all of your players will play. If we all remember last year we were hit with a lot of outs most rounds.

 

[Breaker]

Was nearly certain I won't be starting a rookie just for the sake of floating donut, but this article got me reconsider my team once again. I'm going with a loaded forward line, so Dwyer won't be very useful for me for the purpose of the emergency loophole. I assume many people will go with a similar structure due to the lack of good forward rookies right now, so a DEF/MID floating donut would be more useful than a FWD/DEF. Here's hoping that Colquhoun won't get games early during the season!

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Was nearly certain I won't be starting a rookie just for the sake of floating donut, but this article got me reconsider my team once again. I'm going with a loaded forward line, so Dwyer won't be very useful for me for the purpose of the emergency loophole. I assume many people will go with a similar structure due to the lack of good forward rookies right now, so a DEF/MID floating donut would be more useful than a FWD/DEF. Here's hoping that Colquhoun won't get games early during the season!

Interesting to hear you are going with a loaded forward line. I haven't seen to many side with 5 or 6 premium forwards in them or have you selected players you see as keepers and are undervalued?

 

[Hondo]

A report today suggests Colqhoun may be in line for early games

 

[Breaker]

Interesting to hear you are going with a loaded forward line. I haven't seen to many side with 5 or 6 premium forwards in them or have you selected players you see as keepers and are undervalued?

5 keepers and 1 midpricer. Not loaded as in the best premiums, but more for a consistent output to avoid fielding any forward rookies. I expect 3 of the keepers to be in the top 6 forwards by seasons end. But if a solid forward rookie does come up during the NAB cup, then my line-up would be changed accordingly.

 

[Fluffywhitebirds]

Loving this thread and all the stats analysis!

The one dimension I haven't seen considered is not the $200k value of the cash cow, but the protection that cash cow providers as a (clearly) playing rookie. What value do we place on a bench player getting consistent games? Avoiding trades at critical times? You may say that "hey, I have a get out of jail card with 30 trades and can just trade the guy out", but I doubt such a cavalier attitude to trades will be seen by the top 100 teams....they still have value.

 

[Impromptu]

Loving this thread and all the stats analysis!

The one dimension I haven't seen considered is not the $200k value of the cash cow, but the protection that cash cow providers as a (clearly) playing rookie. What value do we place on a bench player getting consistent games? Avoiding trades at critical times? You may say that "hey, I have a get out of jail card with 30 trades and can just trade the guy out", but I doubt such a cavalier attitude to trades will be seen by the top 100 teams....they still have value.

DPP, if we need cover in the MID with Dwyer/Neade then we bring Rockliff, Martin, Thomas to the Midfield.

Yes, you will be short a rookie one of four (in terms of cover), but trust me when I say the top 100 teams and eventual winner will take a calculated but Cavalier approach this year, ie winning team will be trading aggressively but not necessarily side-ways.

You may want to read one of my old articles titled: [URL="http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/28-2011-Trading-To-Win-(1)[/URL]. 30 trades to me is adequate for cover if you ask me.

 

[Bontempele]

`Great articles as always Jay, on the floating donuts i mean, I love the analysis you've a made and originally, after the floating donut article, I thought it was a great idea.

However, after further analysis, I have decided the floating donut is a BAD idea.

Reason 1: apart from round 1 and maybe 2, generally there is at least 1 player missing in each round anyway(through injuries, suspension, etc), generally 3 or 4.

Reason 2: The maximum amount made from the floating donut for captain loophole would be about 20 points per week. thats if someone other than ablett scores 130+. often however, that wont happen, so the loophole may only be used every 2nd week. Thats about 200 points. The emergency loophole might be a bit more effective. Id say 20 points every week so around 500 overall. Altogether, 700 points extra.

Reason 3: Very often, especially late in the year and during the byes, we already have donuts, or are 1 player out off having a donut. so a floating donut, may be just that, a donut! I reckon that could mean around a 300 point loss which brings the profit down to 400 points.

Reason 4: A cash cow, generally makes about $200k. That's an upgrade which is worth about 50 points. That extra upgrade would prob be able to be made with about 10 rounds to go. That's about 400 points. Extra points GONE.

So in conclusion, i think the floating donut could gain up to 1000 points, but the losses could end up being more. Too risky for me.

 

[IDIG]

Cricket is a little different then our game but. One ball is all it takes and your captain gets next to nothing. Plus not every round all of your players will play. If we all remember last year we were hit with a lot of outs most rounds.

Yeah that's true and I probably did exaggerate the benefits in the loopholes' simplest form but the advantage is still the same. Possibly not the severity of BBL but it's definitely there. Subbed players, late outs in particular..although you still do need a few things to go your way to get the full benefit.