Anyone have a POD they are(n't) willing to share?

[_Slip_]

How has his pre season looked?

Anfa I have no idea to be honest but if you consider he played every game in 2012 and 2013, then Scott rushed him back for the finals tells me he is highly regarded. 188cm and 24 years old with 5 years in the system, with an injury last year spells breakout for me. Averaged 63 in 2012 and 73 in 2013 with a 63 average last year in 4 games. At 270K he is priced at 54-58 points and in their best 22. I believe he can average 75-80 pp.

Nice cash cow with job security.

AFL prospectus rates him as a great buy.

 

[_Slip_]

I'm sorry is it just me but I do not understand the hype around Jack Newnes. Maybe because the defense line is thin but St.Kilda are a bottom 4 side at best and yes he had a breakout last year to average 81 in 22 games, backed up from 56 avg in 11 games in 2012 and 58 avg in 18 games in 2013. He only scored 100+ in 4 games with a standard deviation of 19.4, and 8 games under 80. I'm struggling to see where the improvement will come from, especially with the 2nd and 3rd year players potentially stepping up this year. If he holds his SC score this year I will be surprised let alone improve. For me he is a 75 - 80 pp game player. Any comments welcome.

 

[Mudflap]

I'm sorry is it just me but I do not understand the hype around Jack Newnes. Maybe because the defense line is thin but St.Kilda are a bottom 4 side at best and yes he had a breakout last year to average 81 in 22 games, backed up from 56 avg in 11 games in 2012 and 58 avg in 18 games in 2013. He only scored 100+ in 4 games with a standard deviation of 19.4, and 8 games under 80. I'm struggling to see where the improvement will come from, especially with the 2nd and 3rd year players potentially stepping up this year. If he holds his SC score this year I will be surprised let alone improve. For me he is a 75 - 80 pp game player. Any comments welcome.

I agree. I kept thinking that I am missing something?? But as much as look at him I just cant pick him.

 

[Hondo]

It depends if he will run in the midfield. If so, like Swallow last year, previous stats are unreliable.

 

[anfa18]

Anfa I have no idea to be honest but if you consider he played every game in 2012 and 2013, then Scott rushed him back for the finals tells me he is highly regarded. 188cm and 24 years old with 5 years in the system, with an injury last year spells breakout for me. Averaged 63 in 2012 and 73 in 2013 with a 63 average last year in 4 games. At 270K he is priced at 54-58 points and in their best 22. I believe he can average 75-80 pp.

Nice cash cow with job security.

AFL prospectus rates him as a great buy.

Thanks for that

I'm sorry is it just me but I do not understand the hype around Jack Newnes. Maybe because the defense line is thin but St.Kilda are a bottom 4 side at best and yes he had a breakout last year to average 81 in 22 games, backed up from 56 avg in 11 games in 2012 and 58 avg in 18 games in 2013. He only scored 100+ in 4 games with a standard deviation of 19.4, and 8 games under 80. I'm struggling to see where the improvement will come from, especially with the 2nd and 3rd year players potentially stepping up this year. If he holds his SC score this year I will be surprised let alone improve. For me he is a 75 - 80 pp game player. Any comments welcome.

A lot of the hype for Newnes has come from this article.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-01-24/saint-bulking-up-for-2015

 

[Nathan]

Thanks for that




A lot of the hype for Newnes has come from this article.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-01-24/saint-bulking-up-for-2015

A lot of hype before that article it was just a bonus

 

[anfa18]

Anfa I have no idea to be honest but if you consider he played every game in 2012 and 2013, then Scott rushed him back for the finals tells me he is highly regarded. 188cm and 24 years old with 5 years in the system, with an injury last year spells breakout for me. Averaged 63 in 2012 and 73 in 2013 with a 63 average last year in 4 games. At 270K he is priced at 54-58 points and in their best 22. I believe he can average 75-80 pp.

Nice cash cow with job security.

AFL prospectus rates him as a great buy.

Looks like you are onto something with Macmillan mate, he just got added to the leadership group today.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-02-16/wells-steps-down

 

[DeliciousJedi]

What role does Macmillan play in the midfield?

I'd have put JZ and Bastinac ahead of him. But it may be all changed, with Gibson going back to more an outside role or even tagging too. Then there's LMac having more mid time as well.

 

[Brettthejett]

What role does Macmillan play in the midfield?

I'd have put JZ and Bastinac ahead of him. But it may be all changed, with Gibson going back to more an outside role or even tagging too. Then there's LMac having more mid time as well.

Pretty sure Scott said bastinac is in line first for more mid time

 

[Bob Loblaw]

I'm sorry is it just me but I do not understand the hype around Jack Newnes. Maybe because the defense line is thin but St.Kilda are a bottom 4 side at best and yes he had a breakout last year to average 81 in 22 games, backed up from 56 avg in 11 games in 2012 and 58 avg in 18 games in 2013. He only scored 100+ in 4 games with a standard deviation of 19.4, and 8 games under 80. I'm struggling to see where the improvement will come from, especially with the 2nd and 3rd year players potentially stepping up this year. If he holds his SC score this year I will be surprised let alone improve. For me he is a 75 - 80 pp game player. Any comments welcome.

It depends if he will run in the midfield. If so, like Swallow last year, previous stats are unreliable.

Both of you have point, but Swallow last year moved from 3 years of averaging 80 to 103. His previous year, he was held back from the midfield because of his injury. Swallow was a #1 draft pick in a rising team while Newnes was pick #37 in a team that looks to once again end up down near the bottom. However a midfield spot is quite likely for Newnes at St. Kilda and as swallow showed all previous statistics become oboslete when one is moved out of the back.

Would not be a bad one to go without, if your looking to be different i reckon. I dont mind Savage for 60k less.

 

[Pearcey47]

Alex Rance?

 

[OnePercenters]

Hey guys! I had successfully talked myself out of Jordan Lewis, it's a spike year, age, etc but I don't know if it's the pursuit of finding value and making those dollars spread a bit further or if I'm starting to make stats look better than they actually are, which is something I've seen Rowsus say from time to time.

Anyway here is something I may have noticed but again, this might be slanted to look good instead of actually being good.

For the first 6 rounds of the season Jordan Lewis averaged 87.83 which is around his career average. Then in the 7th round Sam Mitchell goes down with injury and coincidently Lewis has his best score of the year hitting 118. Another coincidence is Lewis pushed his average to 118 in those 15 rounds (from round 7 to 23). He scored 100 or more 11 times in those 15 rounds (also just missed on one occasion with 99). Sam Mitchell returned in the last 8 rounds but Lewis wasn't impacted at all, only being out-scored by Mitchell on one occasion, when he scored the 99 I mentioned early (Mitchell scored 103).

Sam Mitchell has always averaged better than Lewis, so the question is: Did Jordan Lewis fill the role left by Sam Mitchell and continue in that role even when Mitchell was fit? How can we identify if he will continue in the same "role" during pre-season?


I'm probably over analysing this, what do you guys think? Maybe Rowsus or KLo30 could look at those 15 rounds and see if anything in particular changed.

 

[Santoz]

I haven't seen many teams starting with Lance Franklin.

Last year he rolled into Sydney and, by all reports, hadn't put in much training over the break.

He started slowly and his price dropped before getting his **** together in the second half of the year.

Another year on. A serious Sydney pre-season (?) Another year of knowing the movements of the blokes around him on field.

Back to a 100pt+ year?

 

[Philzsay]

I haven't seen many teams starting with Lance Franklin.

Last year he rolled into Sydney and, by all reports, hadn't put in much training over the break.

He started slowly and his price dropped before getting his **** together in the second half of the year.

Another year on. A serious Sydney pre-season (?) Another year of knowing the movements of the blokes around him on field.

Back to a 100pt+ year?

I believe his training has also been managed this year as well, not as bad as last year, but I am not 100% sure.

My main concern is fitting everyone in. I have a short list of about 15 forwards (both premium and rookies) that I would like to squeeze in. Hence I look Buddy and think maybe he will have one off week score of 36 which sees his price plummet, whereas some of my other premium options may be more consistent.

But if he goes 'Bang!' at the start of the year and you have him you will be in a good spot so don't let mine and others hesitation be a reason to not pick him.

 

[Santoz]

I believe his training has also been managed this year as well, not as bad as last year, but I am not 100% sure.

My main concern is fitting everyone in. I have a short list of about 15 forwards (both premium and rookies) that I would like to squeeze in. Hence I look Buddy and think maybe he will have one off week score of 36 which sees his price plummet, whereas some of my other premium options may be more consistent.

But if he goes 'Bang!' at the start of the year and you have him you will be in a good spot so don't let mine and others hesitation be a reason to not pick him.

It's either him or Deledio and I find the move of Delids into the forwardline an interesting one. It sounds as if he's battling injury and they're trying to manage him by throwing Dusty into the guts. Makes picking both Franklin and Dusty at F1 & F2 easier for mine ...

 

[Bob Loblaw]

I haven't seen many teams starting with Lance Franklin.

Last year he rolled into Sydney and, by all reports, hadn't put in much training over the break.

He started slowly and his price dropped before getting his **** together in the second half of the year.

Another year on. A serious Sydney pre-season (?) Another year of knowing the movements of the blokes around him on field.

Back to a 100pt+ year?

I have t considered not having him to be honest. He's just so likely to be that 110+ player as he's domes it multiple times before. Yes hell miss a few games with his knee but they are usually toward the end of the year so if your ever going to get him, get him from the start I reckon.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

I haven't seen many teams starting with Lance Franklin.

Last year he rolled into Sydney and, by all reports, hadn't put in much training over the break.

He started slowly and his price dropped before getting his **** together in the second half of the year.

Another year on. A serious Sydney pre-season (?) Another year of knowing the movements of the blokes around him on field.

Back to a 100pt+ year?

Have considered him strongly and in and out of my team.

If you normalise some of his early scores last year he should be back to ave 110. However he also missed three games last year.

Note he has a quad injury preaseason hence lack of fitness in first few games.

Appears to be training hard, Tippet also fit, however, his knee issue did flare up in the last week and was used as a reason for not playing in the game versus WCE last night. Challenging as I expect he will be a top 3 ave player but with Sydney Swans likely to be strong again this year, he is likely to be rested several times. Swans have a mixed start to the season, 4 hard games and also GWS, Bulldogs and Melb.

 

[anfa18]

Franklin games missing (not including byes) and early low scores:

2014: missed rounds 7, 19 and 23. Low scores in round 1 (54), round 4 (29) and round 6 (31 injured).
2013: missed rounds 16 and 17 and 20. Low scores in round 1 (62), round 5 (57) and round 6 (45).
2012: missed rounds 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 and 21.
2011: missed rounds 11, 14 and 17. Low score in round 1 (72).
2010: missed rounds 1, 4, 7, 11 and 16. Low score in round 2 (83) and round 3 (73).

In the last 3 seasons, Franklin has only missed one game before round 16. However, in both 2013 and 2014 he put out 3 poor games in the first 6 rounds. This means his price dramatically drops and people could bring him in much cheaper.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Franklin games missing (not including byes) and early low scores:

2014: missed rounds 7, 19 and 23. Low scores in round 1 (54), round 4 (29) and round 6 (31 injured).
2013: missed rounds 16 and 17 and 20. Low scores in round 1 (62), round 5 (57) and round 6 (45).
2012: missed rounds 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 and 21.
2011: missed rounds 11, 14 and 17. Low score in round 1 (72).
2010: missed rounds 1, 4, 7, 11 and 16. Low score in round 2 (83) and round 3 (73).

In the last 3 seasons, Franklin has only missed one game before round 16. However, in both 2013 and 2014 he put out 3 poor games in the first 6 rounds. This means his price dramatically drops and people could bring him in much cheaper.

So what your saying is he has missed Supercoach final(s) for the last three years (and may have missed 2 out of 3 bye rounds including his bye in 2010/11). Do you think he aims to mock us? Obviously no fan of SC!

I bet Brent Harvey is picked first in his own team, you wonder why he still is going strong at 37, they take SC seriously down at Ardent St.

 

[Crackle]

Anyone considering wellingham?

I know he only has a best average of 81 but considering the eagles don't have the greatest midfield going around he could be one of their key ball movers as well as play up forward and hopefully snag a few goals. Having a good preseason by all reports, got best on last night, DPP, maybe if he was 30-40k cheaper he'd be a bit more appealing.

Worth considering though