Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Rowsus · 17 Mar 2015

he has the draw to start with a bang again this season. Against that, he always misses games, and is priced to a career high average in a season where we are not exactly sure how the new Ruck rules will affect things. He should be a good POD if you have him, and get at least one or two good scores early, but at his price, I think I'd rather have Gray! Of course you might be intending to start with both!

Grimmo87 · 17 Mar 2015

Not sure at all what to do for ruck cover, I don't want to play a guy like Bellchambers in my fwd line when there are such great fwd premiums this year and playing him on the bench is also pretty stupid since he's 300k so with no rookies what should I be doing for cover? If I go in with a goldy/nic Nat combo what happens if one of my players misses just 1 week with no cover?

Rowsus · 17 Mar 2015

PowerBrokers said:

Hey PB, you can color me red, I'm blushing so much.

thanks for the kind words!
Houli is an interesting one all right, he's sort of the poor man's Kade Simpson in SC. As you indicated, he hasn't missed many games in the last 4 seasons, and he generally scores just outside the top 8 in aggreragte for Def's but lower down the list on averages.

2011: 22/89.2 placed him 17th on Def averages, 1962 points placed him 9th on Def aggregate points
2012: 22/83.1 placed him 25th on Def averages, 1829 points placed him 14th on Def aggregate points
2013: 20/91.6 placed him 12th on Def averages, 1831 points placed him 14th on Def aggregate points
2014: 22/83.2 placed him 26th on Def averages, 1831 points placed him 14th on Def aggregate points

*he actually wasn't a Def in 2011, but that's where his numbers line up.

So even though 4 of the top 5 averaging Def's from last season are no longer in that line, I think we can expect him to be anywhere from 10th to 24th on averages, and 8th to 14th on aggregate. That makes him a viable alternative in this tricky Def season, but I just get the feeling he is going to be, once again, just outside what we are hoping for in our D6. He could possibly fill a spot, until the picture is clearer as to who we should have, but the built in problem with that is, starting a $447,400 Def you intend to trade out! Any Def you start over say $350k should be one you hope/expect to carry through the season.

Rowsus · 17 Mar 2015

rocknroll said:

currently on the injury list with Sandi's disease (he's got turf toe!). Turf toe is pretty indiscriminate, and it can be hard to actually put a date on a return, as we learnt with Sandi. He's currently listed at 1-2 weeks, but it is possible it could still say 1-2 weeks in 2 weeks time.
I know the Club has an opinion of him, so you can be pretty comfortable, that when he is fit, he will get a pretty decent go at it. I'm not overly confident in him scoring to a level we would want from a $250k player, which is probably at least 75/game. Probably too high of a risk this season, maybe next season.

Rowsus · 17 Mar 2015

chels said:

The one that springs immediately to mind is SJ. He was kept to 53 and 50 in his 2 games against Freo last season, and 84 in 2013 in the Qualifying final (his only game against Freo in 2013), which was his 2nd lowest score for the season.
Tagging is a very specific skill, and Crowley has been the best at it in recent history. I really don't think Freo have another player that could keep SJ to his 2 lowest, and second lowest score in 3 games over 2 seasons.

Rowsus · 17 Mar 2015

_Slip_ said:

Hi _Slip_,
I am well, thank you for asking.
I'm not sure of the best way to find that info. I believe CD have it in the prospectus, but I've never seen a copy, so I'm not sure how detailed the info is. Also, some forums have guys giving opinions on such things, but I'm not sure if any of them are reliable or not. I can't even direct you to which forums, as I never go there myself.
Sorry I couldn't be more helpful.

Rowsus · 17 Mar 2015

Brettthejett said:

It's certainly within the realms of possibility, but seems unlikely.
Off the top of my head, I will say the chances that even one of them make it over 115, and play say 19 or more games in doing it (pretty pointless if they only play a handful of games!) would be somewhere around 25-30%.
This caused me to do some maths. Let's assume they all have an equal chance of doing it, and my gut feel is right (let's say 27.5% for calculation purposes).
For only 1 player to make it to 115+, and that being a 27.5% chance, then each individual player is either a:

9.2% chance of achieving it - .092 x .908^3 x 4 = 27.5% OR
47.5% chance of achieving it - .475 x .525^3 x 4 = 27.5%

Having done the math, I would say I was a little tough on them, but the 9.2% chance seems more realistic than the 47.5%.
At 9.2% the chances of all 4 achieving 115+ is 0.0072%
At 47.5% the chances of all 4 achieving 115+ is 5.1%

Realistically, I think individually they are around 16-18% to make it.
That makes it a 38.9% that only one makes it, and a 52.5% chance that one or more make it, but only a 0.08% chance that all 4 make it.

No matter how you line it up, it really seems unlikely all 4 will make it.

_Slip_ · 17 Mar 2015

Hi Rowsus

In light of the news that Ablett may not play round 1, which premium mids do you think are most likely to increase their value in the first 4 weeks of the season?

Thanks in advance.

Rowsus · 17 Mar 2015

Grimmo87 said:

The first thing is, don't panic, we're all in the same boat.
Unless a playing Rookie Ruck, with at least the appearance of some JS, presents in the next 2 weeks, take a R/F at R3.
If you aren't happy with any of the playing R/F's, then don't pick one to play in your Fwd line. Do keep in mind though, if you use a playing R/F as cover 4 times during the season, that can add around 10/game to his real value to your team.
Go in with Goldy/NicNat, or which ever 2 are your choice, and wait for a problem to strike, and then you can decide what is best, depending on how big the problem is. Also keep in mind, it is not the R/F (if you have one) that actually covers your missing Ruck, it is your F7. As your R/F is already on the field, and when he moves up to your Ruck line, your F7 comes on the ground.
When the problem strikes, and it will, you can assess:
If it looks like a 1 week problem, you might decide to eat the donut. If you compare your situation to someone who has the same Ruck out, but they have a R/F, they gain an F7 score advantage over you. Let's call that 60-70 points. It's probably a wise decision to eat a donut rather than plug a 70 point gap in your team. Trades are worth more than 70 points! The other option is to trade the Ruck out, or trade in a R/F to cover. Once again, not great options for a 1 week out, unless you are otherwise unhappy with your Ruck anyway. Side trading the Ruck out out to a similar Ruck might save you 100-110 points, but then what do you do when that Ruck goes missing? You can't keep doing that.
If it's a 2 or 3 week problem, I would suggest trading in a R/F at that point, so you have on going cover from that point on. It can be a cheap one, or a better one, depending on your cash and other trading needs. If a Rookie Ruck has presented in that time, you might even downgrade your missing Ruck to the Rookie Ruck, and gain cash from both ends of the trade. Once again, if you are generally disatisfied with the injured Ruck, then trade him out anyway.
If it is 4 weeks or longer, then trade the Ruck out.
Remember, with one week out, as an isolated case, you are really only giving up 60-70 points to those with R/F cover, not 100 points, or whatever the R/F scores.

t.thomas6 · 17 Mar 2015

Hey Rowsus,

Would love your opinion on some strategies/team structures:

1) Do you think it's better to go deep in defense this year due to lack of rookie depth? This may mean weakening a line (or two)...so if this is the case, what lines would you "weaken" and why?
2) How many breakout players is reasonable to start with in the midfield? And is it worth having them if you have a mid-pricer or fallen premium (e.g Wells)?
3) Who do you think will be the top 6 defenders this year, what 2 are certain starters in your team and why?

Keep up the great work

Rowsus · 17 Mar 2015

_Slip_ said:

Hi _Slip_,
that's a tough one, and what makes it even tougher is, everyone's idea/definition of a Premium is different.
We wouldn't really call L Parker and N Jones Premium Mids, but removing Libba and Gray (because of his DPP), there are only 12 players between Ablett and those 2 on the price list. Those players averaged between 109.4 J Lewis, and 132.0 Rockliff, and it is hard to be confident about any of them holding their value, let alone increasing it. Keep in mind, a player that scores at last years average in each of the first 3 games, will drop around 6-7% in value after round 3!
If you fish a bit further down the list, I wouldn't be surprised to see Watson, Heppell and Dangerfield increase their value. Though the first 2 come with their own problems. Wines, Hannebery and if Macrae can survive the extra attention, are all chances to go up a little in price too.
It's a tough one, and I'm sure you're asking as you are wanting to find an easy "bridge" to reach Ablett early on. I won't be surprised if Ablett is still in 20-25% of teams if he misses round 1. That bridge will be very difficult to build, and I really think unless you are willing to sit on a decent bank of dollars, or really burn some early trades, if you don't join the 20-25% of teams that hope he plays Round 2, you hold on, and hope for a slow start to really chop his price down!

_Slip_ · 17 Mar 2015

Rowsus said:

Hi _Slip_,
that's a tough one, and what makes it even tougher is, everyone's idea/definition of a Premium is different.
We wouldn't really call L Parker and N Jones Premium Mids, but removing Libba and Gray (because of his DPP), there are only 12 players between Ablett and those 2 on the price list. Those players averaged between 109.4 J Lewis, and 132.0 Rockliff, and it is hard to be confident about any of them holding their value, let alone increasing it. Keep in mind, a player that scores at last years average in each of the first 3 games, will drop around 6-7% in value after round 3!
If you fish a bit further down the list, I wouldn't be surprised to see Watson, Heppell and Dangerfield increase their value. Though the first 2 come with their own problems. Wines, Hannebery and if Macrae can survive the extra attention, are all chances to go up a little in price too.
It's a tough one, and I'm sure you're asking as you are wanting to find an easy "bridge" to reach Ablett early on. I won't be surprised if Ablett is still in 20-25% of teams if he misses round 1. That bridge will be very difficult to build, and I really think unless you are willing to sit on a decent bank of dollars, or really burn some early trades, if you don't join the 20-25% of teams that hope he plays Round 2, you hold on, and hope for a slow start to really chop his price down!

Hi Rowsus.

Thanks for your comments. I guess I have 2 options then.

A) Start Ablett and hope he plays rd 2.
B) Replace Ablett.

Don't like either option

Rowsus · 17 Mar 2015

t.thomas6 said:

Hey t.t6,
1) It's actually hard to go deep in Def this season, as not only are there few Rookies. but it is hard to be confident about the Prems and Guns we have to choose amongst either. That is the other reason so many Coaches are turning to Midpriced selections in the Def line this season. I think going with a 5 non-Rookie, 3 Rookie line up in Def is looking the best idea right now. There have been 32 Def Rookies priced cheaper than N Brown play in the NAB so far, and they have played 43 games amongst them, with an average TOG% of 63% per game played. Surely we can find 3 to pick from that list!
As to which line you weaken to spend more on your Def, it is the Rookies that decide that. Load up your Mid or Fwd line with Rookies you feel most confident in. The line that has the more Rookies you feel happy about, is the line to weaken.
2) Midpricer/breakout players and fallen Prems are 2 different things of course. Take as many fallen Prems as you feel confident can bounce back as you can fit in. I wouldn't take more than 1, maybe 2 at the very most, Midpricer/breakout players. They are very hard to predict accurately, and wasting trades and dollars on them is costly. Even if you are very confident you are right, 2 is very high risk. I assume you are calling Wells a Midpricer, and not a fallen Prem, as to my mind, he never was a Premium Mid. I wouldn't consider him, unless you think he can reach 100/game to be a Stepping stone, annd he's only done that once. Generally, the best policy in the Midfield, is stick to the players that have a strong history in your team selection, and any risks you take should be in the Def line first, then the Fwd or Ruck line next.
3) I wish I was more confident in answering this question. Using a PIT60 to grade them (where a 60/game Rookie replaces them in games they miss, so their spot in the team always has 22 games played), I will say:
Smith, Simpson, Burgoyne, Malceski, Shaw, Hibberd
I currently only have Smith and Simpson from that list in my team. They are the 2 I feel most confident about doing both of scoring 90+ and playing 19+ games.

Rowsus · 17 Mar 2015

mikebray6 said:

Hey Mike, thanks for the kind words.

The answer lies in the rules for picking your team.
1) Pick your 2 Captain selections.
2) Pick your Rucks, depending on Ruck strategy.
3) Fill your team with as many Rookies as you can, keeping a preference order in mind for them.
4) Use the left over money to start upgrading the least preferred Rookies until your cash runs out.

So the answer doesn't lie in a "Sloane vs Gray" type question, it lies more in a "Amon vs Lamb" type question. It's more important to get your Rookies right, and save corrective trades in the first 2 weeks, than to get "Sloane vs Gray" right. Both will probably end up in your team at some point, anyway.

Rowsus · 17 Mar 2015

_Slip_ said:

Happy to help, though I wasn't much help in this case, as I too don't like either option.

Mudflap · 17 Mar 2015

Rowsus I am interested in any thoughts that you have on Blicavs? I am not keen on paying big $$ for any ruckmen to start the season off but there are slim pickings under 400K.

He has been solid in NAB and if he has a role of tall defender that finishes the game in the ruck (after the main ruckmen is subbed out) his TOG should increase a fair amount.

jarrad_ · 17 Mar 2015

thanks for the reply in regards to mumford much appreciated

would you start with stef martin?

i know we have seen only 1 proper game with him and luenberger but i just cant see how injury aside martin isnt a top 2 ruckman this year

could possibly be better with luenberger

t.thomas6 · 17 Mar 2015

Rowsus said:

Hey t.t6,
1) It's actually hard to go deep in Def this season, as not only are there few Rookies. but it is hard to be confident about the Prems and Guns we have to choose amongst either. That is the other reason so many Coaches are turning to Midpriced selections in the Def line this season. I think going with a 5 non-Rookie, 3 Rookie line up in Def is looking the best idea right now. There have been 32 Def Rookies priced cheaper than N Brown play in the NAB so far, and they have played 43 games amongst them, with an average TOG% of 63% per game played. Surely we can find 3 to pick from that list!
As to which line you weaken to spend more on your Def, it is the Rookies that decide that. Load up your Mid or Fwd line with Rookies you feel most confident in. The line that has the more Rookies you feel happy about, is the line to weaken.
2) Midpricer/breakout players and fallen Prems are 2 different things of course. Take as many fallen Prems as you feel confident can bounce back as you can fit in. I wouldn't take more than 1, maybe 2 at the very most, Midpricer/breakout players. They are very hard to predict accurately, and wasting trades and dollars on them is costly. Even if you are very confident you are right, 2 is very high risk. I assume you are calling Wells a Midpricer, and not a fallen Prem, as to my mind, he never was a Premium Mid. I wouldn't consider him, unless you think he can reach 100/game to be a Stepping stone, annd he's only done that once. Generally, the best policy in the Midfield, is stick to the players that have a strong history in your team selection, and any risks you take should be in the Def line first, then the Fwd or Ruck line next.
3) I wish I was more confident in answering this question. Using a PIT60 to grade them (where a 60/game Rookie replaces them in games they miss, so their spot in the team always has 22 games played), I will say:
Smith, Simpson, Burgoyne, Malceski, Shaw, Hibberd
I currently only have Smith and Simpson from that list in my team. They are the 2 I feel most confident about doing both of scoring 90+ and playing 19+ games.

Thanks for replying in such depth Rowsus. I've picked Wells on what I saw at then end of last year. He looked really good. Also with both Dal and Higgins there, may free him up to push that 100/game. But I can definitely see the risk.

Thanks again!

Prochard · 17 Mar 2015

Sorry for asking this question repeatedly. But lets say I start with either Stevens or Greenwood and one of them averages 108-110 prior to the byes(finishing with 105-108) and I upgrade one of them to Rockliff in round 12 for an extra 80-100k. Is that enough to justify this selection?

Prochard · 17 Mar 2015

Also with the new scoring changes, it seems like there are a lot of points taken from Rucks and Mids without any addition elsewhere. So, where do these points go? Do they get allocated relatively evenly during the scaling process?

Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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