Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus. Hope you have had a sterling start to the new year.

Could you possibly run your eye over Yarran and McKenzie for me? Do you think Malthouse might use Yarran in a more attacking role? And can McKenzie break into the top 15 defenders? He was doing quite well until injury previously.

Hi sang, it's just another year, but that's what happens when you cross the 50 mark!
Yarran is Yarran. He will score 120 one week, and 50 the next. I have grave doubts about him "fixing" his inconsistency problem. When the opposition target him, he will score low, when they don't, it is possible he cuts loose. Here is the table I posted about him. (A Walker's is attached, sorry I don't have time to remove it.)

I'm not prepared to take the risk with McKenzie. Too often he is left with a match up type role, rather than a creative type role. Here is table from last month.

 

[chels]

Err these numbers are bothering me. If 108-110 averages equate to around 540k at round 12. Does that mean if I start with griffen and he averages that much would mean that he will only go up by 5-10k?

Hi Prochard, to get my head around this I took an intuitive approach. There are 9 games each week (apart from the bye rounds) and 3300 points to be allocated in each game (times 6 games in the bye rounds). Statistically, the group of players most likely to rise in price are rookies and rookie priced players who exceed there implied starting "break even." And there are potentially a large number of these type players. Now, for every player who increases in price another player(s) must fall in price - because the total number of points available is defined.

Similarly, there is defined total value for the players in the competition. What "gives" is the magic number, and typically it declines. So a premium player like Griffin in your example can increase his average but only benefit marginally because the value per point (the magic number) has declined.

Hope that helps, and please Rowsus and others if I have got this wrong please straighten out my thinking.

 

[blue dreamer]

Thanks Rowan

 

[mproust]

Is anyone thinking of Maric this year? He is really the only value ruckman I can find. Had decent scores last year and with a preseason under his belt and Richmond looking to improve, I think he may give me a 105 average. Do you think that is enough by season's end considering his starting price? Will I lose out too much against the other rucks?

 

[Blossoms]

Hey Rowsus

Think I've read all your threads by now. Love your work. Hopefully some of this knowledge can help me 'breakout' in my first season of Supercoach.

Interested in your thoughts on Nakia Cockatoo. Freakish looking talent. But an 18 yo who played one game last year, and priced at $177,300. For arguments sake, let's say he plays early games at an average of 70. At what point does he get traded out, and what is formula we use for the calculation?

Cheers.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Just on Yarran.
He has never been a reliable scorer for SC due to style of game he plays.
Last year watching him actually play live there were times his big runs left him empty in tank so hopefully worked on getting a bigger tank to do his amazing runs but not be short of breath and useless for team for two or three minutes after it.
A sample of some of his scores last season
133, 89, 90, 106, 72, 66, 122, 106, 62, 95, 92, 9, 111
if you can live with that guess can take a punt.
Probably not myself

 

[PC]

With the exception of the 9 (subbed due to injury?), that line of scoring would be pretty good for a backline player this year imo!

 

[Adrenaline]

Hi rowsus

I have 4 premiums in the backline and I am trying to find a mid price defender approx 418k or less. I've considered the prince adcock geary, ibbotson, Macmillan and so on but not sure who to pick. Due to my structure I am not able to generate enough funds for another premium defender. In your opinion who is the best choice for that price range?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus. Apologies in advance if you have already answered this question

What are your thoughts on Parker for 2015? Can he take his average up another 5-10 points?

Cheers in advance!

I'll be watching this response. I love the way Luke Parker goes about it. Goal kicking, tackling, contested player who seems to only get better and better. Can take a solid contested mark also. Dunno if I have the balls to start him at roughly 580k, when JPK is only 612k.

Looked at his same age numbers versus Ablett, Selwood and JPK - very close or better in some areas!

You'll find the answer at JPK, Parker, Hannebery and Jack

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus - last time I saw these rules I wondered about something, so this time I will ask: I understand why captains are treated differently from other players, but why are rucks? Thanks again.

Not sure if this is what you are asking but...
The rucks are very important as the difference between the No1 SC ruck and say No4 or No5 SC ruck can be very significant. Say the difference is 10 points, multiply that over the course of the season and this becomes some significant points. This is an issue as only two rucks are selected to play. Historically the difference between mids is often smaller and not as much of an issue there.
So for example using last years averages
Player A with No1 (Sauce 115 avg) and No4 SC (Sandi 111 avg) ranked rucks v Player B with No4 (Sandi 111 avg) and No5 (Goldy 107 avg) SC ranked rucks. Lets assume all played 22 games
Sauce 115 x 22 = 2530
Sandi 111 x 22 = 2442

v

Sandi 111 x 22 = 2442
Goldy 107 x 22 = 2354

Thats 200 point difference straight off and a Sandi Goldy ruck combo last year was prob above avg of what most people had so that 200 can easily increase to 300-400 points.

Hi Darkie,
siwel is on the right track. Rucks are an area where most Coaches burn 3 to 5 trades a season, and yet they only make up 2 onfield spots in our team. Combine that, with the fact that there is historically a big gap from the 3rd best scoring Ruck in any season, and the 5th or 6th best, and we need to get our final selections right. We obviously want to get them right, with as few trades as possible, so with that in mind, and remembering that a "failed" M2 pick, can still slide down, and do a job for you at M8, but a failed R2 pick has nowhere to go but out, we should decide on our Ruck strategy, and not consider dollars too much. History has shown that taking last years top 2 Rucks at R1 and R2 hasn't been a great strategy, so we don't just burn dollars for the sake of it, but don't shy away from your pick because of dollars. You'd kick yourself if you liked say Sauce this season, but decided to "save" $60k, and go elsewhere, only to see Sauce light it up again this year. (disclaimer - I'm not picking or advocating Sauce this season). It's so important to get your Rucks right, so you don't leak points, and it's important to try and avoid 5 trades to do it, hence they get a special "rule" all of their own.

 

[Rowsus]

Err these numbers are bothering me. If 108-110 averages equate to around 540k at round 12. Does that mean if I start with griffen and he averages that much would mean that he will only go up by 5-10k?

The MN, once it settles down a bit by round 5 or 6, bobs up and down from just over 5,000 to sometimes below 4,900. If you want a good number to work with, when analysing future prices, use 5,000. So yes, if you think a player will average 108, you can assume his price will tend towards $540,000.
Yes, in general that means if Griffen scores at that level, he will only go up a little bit. Keep in mind with players like Griffen though, that their prices are more dynamic than a "normal" player. Griffen scores in Highs and Lows, and that means his price will vary more than a player that has a smaller standard deviation than Griffen. Griffen, if he averages 108 for the season, will still likely score a couple of 150's and a 140, mixed with some 80's. This will cause wilder price fluctuations than a player that scores mainly around 100-116, with the odd 130 or 90, but still averages 108.

So do you think Swallow meets the stepping stone criteria?

I may be foolish, but I'm clinging to the hope that Swallow can be a cheap M7/8 type player, rather than a Stepping Stone. He's sort of priced in that area, that he actually can't be a great Stepping Stone, unless he scores high, and you expect his scoring to suddenly drop, and you pull a Dimma/Cloke move with him. I've always said, Stepping Stones need to make dollars, and score useful points. For Swallow to make dollars of any signifigance he has to score at a Keeper level anyway. He has the potential to be that trap M8 type player though. He might score well enough, that you never get around to upgrading him, but low enough that you leak points to teams with better M8's!

Hi Prochard, to get my head around this I took an intuitive approach. There are 9 games each week (apart from the bye rounds) and 3300 points to be allocated in each game (times 6 games in the bye rounds). Statistically, the group of players most likely to rise in price are rookies and rookie priced players who exceed there implied starting "break even." And there are potentially a large number of these type players. Now, for every player who increases in price another player(s) must fall in price - because the total number of points available is defined.

Similarly, there is defined total value for the players in the competition. What "gives" is the magic number, and typically it declines. So a premium player like Griffin in your example can increase his average but only benefit marginally because the value per point (the magic number) has declined.

Hope that helps, and please Rowsus and others if I have got this wrong please straighten out my thinking.

That pretty much sums it up. It's a zero sum game, the total price increases = the total price decreases. To allow for the increased value the Rookies achieve, the MN drops to adjust the higher priced players prices down, if they score at their previous seasons average (in general).

 

[Rowsus]

Is anyone thinking of Maric this year? He is really the only value ruckman I can find. Had decent scores last year and with a preseason under his belt and Richmond looking to improve, I think he may give me a 105 average. Do you think that is enough by season's end considering his starting price? Will I lose out too much against the other rucks?

Welcome aboard
some are definitely considering Maric, here is a question and answer from 9 days ago, post #3258 on page 163.

Rowsus, I have had a search through the thread and cant find anything on him. What are your thoughts on Ivan Maric? Finished the year off well does anything indicate he can get back to his 2012 SC form

Siwel, my greatest concern with Maric is, that I distinctly remember reading a newspaper article (around 12-24 months ago) where Hardwick said that Maric's injury was chronic, and would need management throughout his career. I have tried a few times to find this article again, without success. I can't even remember which injury it was he was referring to, but I remember thinking "that put's Maric on the never again list". There is no doubt, if you were confident he can stand up through the season, unaffected, he has the potential to be a top 3 Ruck. He definitely showed that at the end of last season. I just think I'd rather not start with someone who I'm pretty sure will miss games and have low scores because they play games injured.

In case you are interested, here is a link to the article in question.

this article
http://www.richmondfc.com.au/news/2013-07-04/maric-to-manage-groin-soreness

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus

Think I've read all your threads by now. Love your work. Hopefully some of this knowledge can help me 'breakout' in my first season of Supercoach.

Interested in your thoughts on Nakia Cockatoo. Freakish looking talent. But an 18 yo who played one game last year, and priced at $177,300. For arguments sake, let's say he plays early games at an average of 70. At what point does he get traded out, and what is formula we use for the calculation?

Cheers.

Hey Blossoms, thanks for the kind words.
Cockatoo looks a player, and could be a ready made, even if 3 years behind, replacement for Christensen. I'm a bit wary of Cockatoo's fitness base, and Geelong's record of not "flattening" their Rookies. That means he's likely to get managed at some stage, even if he's looking good.
If he averages 70, his price will tend towards 70 x 5,000 = $350,000. Keeping in mind Rookies that average 70 probably have a 35 and a 105 in there somewhere, and that fluctuates their prices a lot more than other players. Don't set a price to trade him out, let circumstances and B/E's guide you. If you can't find the B/E just ask on this site, someone will tell you. Wait for his B/E to get above his average, that's usually when you should start to trade them out.

 

[Rowsus]

Just on Yarran.
He has never been a reliable scorer for SC due to style of game he plays.
Last year watching him actually play live there were times his big runs left him empty in tank so hopefully worked on getting a bigger tank to do his amazing runs but not be short of breath and useless for team for two or three minutes after it.
A sample of some of his scores last season
133, 89, 90, 106, 72, 66, 122, 106, 62, 95, 92, 9, 111
if you can live with that guess can take a punt.
Probably not myself

With the exception of the 9 (subbed due to injury?), that line of scoring would be pretty good for a backline player this year imo!

It's not just the 9 that's the problem. If you look at the table at post #3364, you will see he has: 9, 38, 47, 54 and 62 in his scores last season!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi rowsus

I have 4 premiums in the backline and I am trying to find a mid price defender approx 418k or less. I've considered the prince adcock geary, ibbotson, Macmillan and so on but not sure who to pick. Due to my structure I am not able to generate enough funds for another premium defender. In your opinion who is the best choice for that price range?

Hi Adrenaline,
If I had to choose a Def for under $418k I would be taking The Prince, Docherty or Kolodjashnij.
If you can use the $50k KK gives you over the other 2, the choice is easy. If not, it's pretty tricky. Maybe the order I've listed them above.

 

[PC]

It's not just the 9 that's the problem. If you look at the table at post #3364, you will see he has: 9, 38, 47, 54 and 62 in his scores last season!

Sure, although consider this:
- Malceski had an 8 (finals), 67, 79 (finals), 80, 81, 86
- Simpson 24, 32, 60, 61, 72, 76, 83, 86, 87
- Burgoyne 61 (finals), 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 81, 85, 87, 89
All are older than 30...

- Smith 32, 54, 59, 67, 69, 78, 78, 78, 81, 82, 85, 89
New coach, backline issues at the club

- Shaw 24, 34, 62, 70, 84, 85, 88
Is a spud and misses games

All are worth 60k more than Yarran...all will drop in price I expect. I think you see my point
(Last comment - only 4 scores below 60 and Yarran is ok, 5 is a worry! )

 

[Prochard]

wow, honestly didn't know about this. So what do you need the player to average in order for a 500k player to rise to 560-570k? 109-114? If thats the case, the player is already a solid m5-8, so the player can no longer be classified as a stepping stone. Therefore, the theory of a 500k player stepping stone does not exist and was never practical?

The MN, once it settles down a bit by round 5 or 6, bobs up and down from just over 5,000 to sometimes below 4,900. If you want a good number to work with, when analysing future prices, use 5,000. So yes, if you think a player will average 108, you can assume his price will tend towards $540,000.
Yes, in general that means if Griffen scores at that level, he will only go up a little bit. Keep in mind with players like Griffen though, that their prices are more dynamic than a "normal" player. Griffen scores in Highs and Lows, and that means his price will vary more than a player that has a smaller standard deviation than Griffen. Griffen, if he averages 108 for the season, will still likely score a couple of 150's and a 140, mixed with some 80's. This will cause wilder price fluctuations than a player that scores mainly around 100-116, with the odd 130 or 90, but still averages 108.



I may be foolish, but I'm clinging to the hope that Swallow can be a cheap M7/8 type player, rather than a Stepping Stone. He's sort of priced in that area, that he actually can't be a great Stepping Stone, unless he scores high, and you expect his scoring to suddenly drop, and you pull a Dimma/Cloke move with him. I've always said, Stepping Stones need to make dollars, and score useful points. For Swallow to make dollars of any signifigance he has to score at a Keeper level anyway. He has the potential to be that trap M8 type player though. He might score well enough, that you never get around to upgrading him, but low enough that you leak points to teams with better M8's!



That pretty much sums it up. It's a zero sum game, the total price increases = the total price decreases. To allow for the increased value the Rookies achieve, the MN drops to adjust the higher priced players prices down, if they score at their previous seasons average (in general).

 

[Rowsus]

Sure, although consider this:
- Malceski had an 8 (finals), 67, 79 (finals), 80, 81, 86
- Simpson 24, 32, 60, 61, 72, 76, 83, 86, 87
- Burgoyne 61 (finals), 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 81, 85, 87, 89
All are older than 30...

- Smith 32, 54, 59, 67, 69, 78, 78, 78, 81, 82, 85, 89
New coach, backline issues at the club

- Shaw 24, 34, 62, 70, 84, 85, 88
Is a spud and misses games

All are worth 60k more than Yarran...all will drop in price I expect. I think you see my point
(Last comment - only 4 scores below 60 and Yarran is ok, 5 is a worry! )

I see your point, but outside of Smith, those other players have had some successful history, and Yarran gives you 5 sub 60's every season (... so far), and more 60 - 80 type scores than those others. He will excite you some games, and kill you in others. The problem is, there is more kills than thrills.

 

[Prochard]

Also, how many times did Griffen, Ward, Treloar and Greene got tagged last year?

Thanks

 

[Rowsus]

wow, honestly didn't know about this. So what do you need the player to average in order for a 500k player to rise to 560-570k? 109-114? If thats the case, the player is already a solid m5-8, so the player can no longer be classified as a stepping stone. Therefore, the theory of a 500k player stepping stone does not exist and was never practical?

The only way a $480k+ player becomes a Stepping Stone, is if they grossly exceed their expectation, and you trade them out like Dimma did with Cloke, because you anticipate a correction/drop off in scoring. Outside of that scenario, nope, not a Stepping Stone, a hit or a miss, nothing in between.