Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Mudflap]

Rowsus... I posted this on another thread:

Macmillan is a 100% lock for us. I am not sure that you could say that about Goodes.

Last season his TOG was 76% (affected by a sub and an injury) and I estimate it would be at least 83% this season. Without over complicating things his SC 100%TOG for 3 NAB games combined was 273 (av 91 SC points per 100%TOG). At 83% TOG he would have averaged 77 SC points across NAB.

That lines up where I think he will score this season 75 - 80 .

Putting to one side that my calculations may not be right up to your standards and that I have made an assumption in there my question is IF Macmillan is to average 77 points per game up until the round 13 bye what would his value be?

 

[fodzilla]

Is there some sort of formula that can be used to roughly predict/estimate a players price rise or drop, based on starting price if they score/average X points by round Y?

Putting to one side that my calculations may not be right up to your standards and that I have made an assumption in there my question is IF Macmillan is to average 77 points per game up until the round 13 bye what would his value be?

Fortunately the magic of the internet means anyone can answer this. TooSerious offers customisable price projections, just click the little calculator icon. Example: http://tooserious.net/PlayerSalaryCalculator.aspx?id=876&name=Jamie MACMILLAN

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus. Happy to see you are continuing your valuable contribution and advice - always very much appreciated.

Just wondering how you see Kade Kolodjashnij going this year? I am considering him at D5 (Newnes at D4 and Macmillan D6). Too risky?

Hey Bobbie,
I think he's cheap enough to take a risk on. At various times he has been sitting at D5 or D6 in my team. If we suddenly get some good Def Rookies I won't be risking him, but if I am starting with 5 or 6 Non-Def Rookies on the field, there is a very strong chance he will be in my team.

ps - I don't like Macmillan, never been in my team, and I can't see that changing.

 

[Rowsus]

G'day Rowsus,

Have been reading the interesting comments regarding Rockliff and Ablett. Just wondering if yourself or anyone has thought about not starting either Ablett or Rocky.
Ablett looks like he will come back underdone and Rockliff looks like he will competing with Beams, Redden, Rich etc. for more of the ball this year.
In years gone by we have had a standout capt. choice in Ablett and last year Ablett/Rockliff. Could this be the end this year of a standout capt. that can pump out 150 -170 pt scores?
Do we need to look at a different strategy and ignore these two guys and put 5 other quality mids in that can rotate the captaincy? Out of Kennedy, Selwood, Fyfe, Lewis, Beams etc. and accept that we are not gonna get those big scores week in week out. We could then rely on the score being evenly spread across the rest of the mids and team.
Just a thought anyway

Hi Slammer,
I've certainly entertained the idea of no Rocky and no Ablett. I actually built my team without either of them after the GC v Bris game. It's ridiculous how things change, and the season hasn't even started! At one stage I had: Ablett, Rocky, Gray, Bartel, Sandilands, Goldstein, Smith and Simpson all in my team. That's quite a few from the top end of the 4 price lists! The side I built after the GC v Bris game only had 3 of those 8, and I had chopped the 2 most expensive players in the game.
I'm not sure we still shouldn't bank one or two of Selwood and Pendlebury as an anchor in the Captain's loophole, and maybe role the dice before they play, to see if we can fluke a good score, then turn to one of them if we don't. I do think we were a bit spoiled at the end of 2013 with Rocky, and then the start of last year (with Ablett/Pendlebury), and then Rocky again late in the season. Prior to those events, we were umming and aahing if we should bank a 120 VC score, but the last season and a bit, you got crucified many weeks if you did that. I think it is quite conceivable, and maybe even probable, that we will be back to those days of banking a 120 VC, unless Gaz/Rocky can show us otherwise.
As to ignoring these 2 Guys, it could well be the way to go, but it could also take a really big bite out of your season if you do. I'm still not sure what the answer is. I do know, with the restructure I have done, I can and will still probably start one of Rocky/Gaz.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Is there some sort of formula that can be used to roughly predict/estimate a players price rise or drop, based on starting price if they score/average X points by round Y?

Thanks

Fortunately the magic of the internet means anyone can answer this. TooSerious offers customisable price projections, just click the little calculator icon. Example: http://tooserious.net/PlayerSalaryCalculator.aspx?id=876&name=Jamie MACMILLAN

Hey Benno,
it's really hard to be accurate on this, as the magic number fluctuates up and down, and never finishes on the same percentage decreased value each season. I can give you a formula that is pretty basic for future prediction, but I warn it is pretty rough, and on any given round it is likely to have a decent margin of error.
3 things to remember:
Players scores obviously fluctuate, and so using an average score as a predictor will always be pretty rough in it's accuracy anyway.
If a player did manage to score the same score every week, they would hit the price they are going to roughly finish at by round 11.
There are no price changes after Rounds 1 and 2, so the following formula throws up nonsense if you use 1 or 2 for the Round value, and because of point 2 just above, nonsense if you use a Round value greater than 11.

You can use the following as a very rough guide:

P + 9R/100*(Ave*4950 - P)

Where: P = Opening Price, R = Round number, Ave = The average score the player gets each week.

So for an example: Say we have a $350k player, that we think can average 88, and you want to know roughly what his price will be at Round 6.

350,000 + 9*6/100*(88*4950 - 350,000) = $396,224, which of course gets rounded to $396,200

I hope this makes sense, if you have any queries, don't hesitate to ask.

 

[Rowsus]

Couldn't have explained my predicament with Rockcliff either. I'm kinda doubling up here posted this on the rocky thread but I'd like you opinion. Surely Brisbane wouldn't take their most consistent midfeilder (And possibly best) out of the mids. Redden , Aish, Christianson (injury cloud), Taylor, Rich, Robinson are all "good" (At best B/B+ players) but not A/A+ standard players as beams an Rockcliff are. Also with Beams likely to be heavily affected by a tag why would they take out their only known quantity out of the midfeild.

118?? Do you mean 128? Surely you wouldn't pay that much for a 118ppg player.

Do Lynch and Brown have any connection to coaching at Brisbane or is this simply an off the cuff comment they made after seeing him play down forward?? I didn't actually hear the context of the comments.

Finally , was Rocky played on the Mids in the other NAB matches??? Only briefly watched one of the and payed little attention to Rocky.

1) Clubs definitely "Rob Peter to pay Paul" sometimes. Look at a simple exaggerated example. Let's pretend Rocky is twice as good in the middle as all the other players who might play there. You have a gaping hole in your Fwd line, and you rate Rocky your best chance to fix it, because all of the other players can't mark, and can't kick goals. It's no use having Rocky in the guts, getting the ball into the Fwd line 80% of the time, if it's just coming out 100% of the time. You'd be better to have Knackers (Aish, Redden, etc) getting the ball into the Fwd line 40% of the time, if Rocky is going to mark it and kick a goal 30% of the time. One leads to goals 12% of the time, and the other no goals at all. Of course this example is horribly simplistic, and exaggerated, but it demonstrates, that Clubs won't necessarily play players in their strongest position. It is more about, if he doesn't fill that need, who does?

2) No, I did mean 118, but I was thinking downside. I thought, before all this cropped up, he'd be 118-130, but used the 118 to demonstrate the point. It's always better to look at the better players downsides when planning, it leads to less disappointments. I'm willing to pay the high price, as even if he averages 118, there should still be some useful loophole scores in there. His Highs will still be better than most players that average something similar.

3) I don't think so, but they'd be way more privy to the goings on than anyone of us. It could have been a throw away line, greeted with agreement, but it still raises doubts.

4) He hasn't spent a great deal of time in the Mids during the NAB, going in there now and then, and a lot less than last season. He certainly hasn't thrown himself into the contest, as his tackle and CP numbers would attest. I'm not worried about that though, I'm only worried about him getting parked down Fwd for 30 or 40 minutes each game. Having said all that, depending on Rookies etc, I'm still a strong chance to squeeze Rocky back in.

 

[Rowsus]

Before Ablett (BA), supercoach winners often started without the highest priced players. Last year you tried a money ball approach but Ablett made sure you would rue this decision. Do you think Rowsus that this year could be a throwback to the days when even our Captain picks were value picks?

Yes, Ablett and Pendles smashed my moneyball approach last season. I paid the ultimate Price for breaking Rule 1 for team selection: Pick you Captain/s first!
I still think, even if Ablett/Rocky don't give us the safe Captain picks, we will just go to the next shelf, and use Pendlebury/Selwood as Captain, and try and roll the dice on a VC before they play.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus... I posted this on another thread:

Macmillan is a 100% lock for us. I am not sure that you could say that about Goodes.

Last season his TOG was 76% (affected by a sub and an injury) and I estimate it would be at least 83% this season. Without over complicating things his SC 100%TOG for 3 NAB games combined was 273 (av 91 SC points per 100%TOG). At 83% TOG he would have averaged 77 SC points across NAB.

That lines up where I think he will score this season 75 - 80 .

Putting to one side that my calculations may not be right up to your standards and that I have made an assumption in there my question is IF Macmillan is to average 77 points per game up until the round 13 bye what would his value be?

Mudflap... I'm not sure I agree with the "Macmillan is a 100% lock for us" bit. Never been in my team, and not likely to be.
At 77/game his price will tend towards 4950*77 = $380,000
This why i'm not getting him. He won't make enough money, or score enough points. I'd rather roll the dice on a Rookie, that only needs to average around 50 to outperform Macmillan in the fundraising stakes.

 

[Mudflap]

Mudflap... I'm not sure I agree with the "Macmillan is a 100% lock for us" bit. Never been in my team, and not likely to be.
At 77/game his price will tend towards 4950*77 = $380,000
This why i'm not getting him. He won't make enough money, or score enough points. I'd rather roll the dice on a Rookie, that only needs to average around 50 to outperform Macmillan in the fundraising stakes.

Sorry that was coming from a NORTH supporter (US). He will play every week.

Thanks for the numbers. I agree that a rookie is the way to go.

 

[rocknroll]

gday mate thanks for your time .. whats your opinion of one Marley Williams

 

[Bob Loblaw]

1) Clubs definitely "Rob Peter to pay Paul" sometimes. Look at a simple exaggerated example. Let's pretend Rocky is twice as good in the middle as all the other players who might play there. You have a gaping hole in your Fwd line, and you rate Rocky your best chance to fix it, because all of the players can't mark, and can't kick goals. It's no use having Rocky in the guts, getting the ball into the Fwd line 80% of the time, if it's just coming out 100% of the time. You'd be better to have Knackers (Aish, Redden, etc) getting the ball into the Fwd line 40% of the time, if Rocky is going to mark it and kick a goal 30% of the time. One leads to goals 12% of the time, and the other no goals at all. Of course this example is horribly simplistic, and exaggerated, but it demonstrates, that Clubs won't necessarily play players in their strongest position. It is more about, if he doesn't fill that need, who does?

2) No, I did mean 118, but I was thinking downside. I thought, before all this cropped up, he'd be 118-130, but used the 118 to demonstrate the point. It's always better to look at the better players downsides when planning, it leads to less disappointments. I'm willing to pay the high price, as even if he averages 118, there should still be some useful loophole scores in there. His Highs will still be better than most players that average something similar.

3) I don't think so, but they'd be way more privy to the goings on than anyone of us. It could have been a throw away line, greeted with agreement, but it still raises doubts.

4) He hasn't spent a great deal of time in the Mids during the NAB, going in there now and then, and a lot less than last season. He certainly hasn't thrown himself into the contest, as his tackle and CP numbers would attest. I'm not worried about that though, I'm only worried about him getting parked down Fwd for 30 or 40 minutes each game. Having said all that, depending on Rookies etc, I'm still a strong chance to squeeze Rocky back in.

Thanks a tonne Rowsus, you're a superstar. Really helpful. I feel from a logical (risk Vs Reward) perspective he isn't the best pick but I had him from the start last year and I feel I want him again. If he comes out with a couple of 150's in the first few weeks that's something I don't want to miss out on.

 

[Bobbie]

Hey Bobbie,
I think he's cheap enough to take a risk on. At various times he has been sitting at D5 or D6 in my team. If we suddenly get some good Def Rookies I won't be risking him, but if I am starting with 5 or 6 Non-Def Rookies on the field, there is a very strong chance he will be in my team.

ps - I don't like Macmillan, never been in my team, and I can't see that changing.

Mudflap... I'm not sure I agree with the "Macmillan is a 100% lock for us" bit. Never been in my team, and not likely to be.
At 77/game his price will tend towards 4950*77 = $380,000
This why i'm not getting him. He won't make enough money, or score enough points. I'd rather roll the dice on a Rookie, that only needs to average around 50 to outperform Macmillan in the fundraising stakes.

Cheers for the feedback. KK is currently at D5 and I actually got rid of Macmillan yesterday for a rookie. Like you, I don't have the confidence in him. I think I will run with a rookie at D6 and just be content with a 50 each week.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Hey Rowus,

Come the seasons end who do you think will be the top 10 MIDs in terms of total points scored, and average??

Cheers Goodie

 

[Blossoms]

Hey Bobbie,
I think he's cheap enough to take a risk on. At various times he has been sitting at D5 or D6 in my team. If we suddenly get some good Def Rookies I won't be risking him, but if I am starting with 5 or 6 Non-Def Rookies on the field, there is a very strong chance he will be in my team.

ps - I don't like Macmillan, never been in my team, and I can't see that changing.

Kristian Jaksch might be a less expensive alternative to Kade Kolodjashnij.

 

[EGALegends]

Sorry that was coming from a NORTH supporter (US). He will play every week.

Thanks for the numbers. I agree that a rookie is the way to go.

Cheers for the feedback. KK is currently at D5 and I actually got rid of Macmillan yesterday for a rookie. Like you, I don't have the confidence in him. I think I will run with a rookie at D6 and just be content with a 50 each week.

Can people please tell me what I'm missing here. I'm looking at MacMillan as my D6 (or Goodes, or Jaksch, but the questions remain).

If MacMillan averages 77 for 12 rounds, his price will rise from $270,000 to approx. $380,000.
Say I find a $120K rookie instead, who averages 50. His price would rise to approx. $257,700.

In this comparison, Macmillan gives me 324 points extra over the 12 rounds, and I upgrade him to a premium by spending say $120,000, instead of $240,000. Yes he only made me $110,000 instead of $140,000. But I think I'd prefer the points. And if I can find that other rookie, I'll have him at D7 anyway, so I'll still get the cash. The real cash comparison needs to be against my current D9, i.e. the guy that is kept out of the team by Macmillan.

I suspect I also need to consider the $150,000 I spend on Macmillan that I could otherwise use elsewhere. Do I need to decide whether that can get me the 324 points? And what about the potential waste of time the D9 is?

This is quite simplistic (and I think 77 might be close to the maximum for MacMillan), but I think it covers the essence. And of course if there really are 3 good $120K DEF rookies, that is obviously a better solution.

 

[tracygrims]

I suspect I also need to consider the $150,000 I spend on Macmillan that I could otherwise use elsewhere. Do I need to decide whether that can get me the 324 points? And what about the potential waste of time the D9 is?

Exactly as you say, these are the deciding factors. Will your D9 avoid the vest and make more money than Macmillian? and can you spend the extra cash on something that will score more than 324 points?

 

[lipsunited]

Rampe vs yarran? Both have good DE (from watching)? And do u think they will be the designated kicker out of defense. Thanks bud

 

[_Slip_]

Good evening or morning where you are Rowsus.

I will make this quick. I want one $200k rookie mid. So taking likely consistent output and JS into account, in what order would you select Newton, Sheed and Cripps. Right now personally I'm tossing up Sheed vs Cripps as I question Newton's tank as he has faded in large patches of the Nab. If Newton was a seasoned campaigner it wouldn't worry me as much, but for a guy pushing for rd 1 alarm bells are ringing especially with Vince to come back in.

 

[siwel]

Rowsus, I am after to some help. I am taking a closer look at Michael Johnson and according to tooserious.net his SC price finished at $386,000 (2014 season link). He is listed at $486,500 this season, is there any reason for this 100k price increase?
While he is on your mind is there anything you can offer on MJ?

Cheers mate

 

[siwel]

Another question Rowsus, however much information you want to share is up to you.

Which are your most promising players due to statistical trends coming into this season? Maybe you could categorise them into areas such as Fallen Premium, Breakout and Mid-Pricer.

I pay close attention to this thread and am aware of some that you are keen to but wondering if these have changed due to the NAB Cup and if you would be willing to condense your pages and pages of analysis of players to look at into one epic post.