Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Benno]

Rowsus, I am after to some help. I am taking a closer look at Michael Johnson and according to tooserious.net his SC price finished at $386,000 (2014 season link). He is listed at $486,500 this season, is there any reason for this 100k price increase?
While he is on your mind is there anything you can offer on MJ?

Cheers mate

Hey mate,

Prices don't carry over from year to year. It's based on the magic number and season average. MJ's price was fairly low at the end of the season due to a handful of 60's in the last 5 or so rounds so he had a large price drop to finish the year. But his 2015 starting price is based on his overall average from last year multiplied by the magic number. Hopefully the way I've explained that has made sense haha happy for anyone else to provide a better explanation

 

[siwel]

Hey mate,

Prices don't carry over from year to year. It's based on the magic number and season average. MJ's price was fairly low at the end of the season due to a handful of 60's in the last 5 or so rounds so he had a large price drop to finish the year. But his 2015 starting price is based on his overall average from last year multiplied by the magic number. Hopefully the way I've explained that has made sense haha happy for anyone else to provide a better explanation

yeah i knew that but he played 18 games and ended with that price, I didnt think the 100k increase was implemented for players who played so many games in the previous season. Cheers tho

 

[AngryAnt]

yeah i knew that but he played 18 games and ended with that price, I didnt think the 100k increase was implemented for players who played so many games in the previous season. Cheers tho

His price for this season is based on his average from the whole of last season, not what price he finished on last season.

 

[Rowsus]

gday mate thanks for your time .. whats your opinion of one Marley Williams

gday rnr,
pre-pre-season I rated him some chance to benefit from the opportunities that were opening at Collingwood.
Def $380,800
NAB 1 - 91 SC, 71% TOG
NAB 2 - 47 SC, 82% TOG
NAB 3 - 98 SC, 86% TOG
Ave - 79 SC, 80% TOG
I think the bottom line there might sum up where he's at, though he could potentially go better. If you are wanting to take a risk in that price range I think there are better options available.
Here's what I wrote in the table section. I wrote it in December, and posted it in January (ignore the Swan table, if you like)

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowus,

Come the seasons end who do you think will be the top 10 MIDs in terms of total points scored, and average??

Cheers Goodie

Hey Goodies,
I must admit, I hate questions like this. They're very hard to get right, and you can end up looking a bit of a goose.
Total points
Selwood
Pendlebury
JPK
Rocky
Sloane
Ablett
Priddis
Fyfe
Ward
Sidebottom

Ave
Ablett
Rockliff
Selwood
Pendlebury
Fyfe
JPK
Beams
Sloane
Hannebery
Heppell

 

[Rowsus]

Can people please tell me what I'm missing here. I'm looking at MacMillan as my D6 (or Goodes, or Jaksch, but the questions remain).

If MacMillan averages 77 for 12 rounds, his price will rise from $270,000 to approx. $380,000.
Say I find a $120K rookie instead, who averages 50. His price would rise to approx. $257,700.

In this comparison, Macmillan gives me 324 points extra over the 12 rounds, and I upgrade him to a premium by spending say $120,000, instead of $240,000. Yes he only made me $110,000 instead of $140,000. But I think I'd prefer the points. And if I can find that other rookie, I'll have him at D7 anyway, so I'll still get the cash. The real cash comparison needs to be against my current D9, i.e. the guy that is kept out of the team by Macmillan.

I suspect I also need to consider the $150,000 I spend on Macmillan that I could otherwise use elsewhere. Do I need to decide whether that can get me the 324 points? And what about the potential waste of time the D9 is?

This is quite simplistic (and I think 77 might be close to the maximum for MacMillan), but I think it covers the essence. And of course if there really are 3 good $120K DEF rookies, that is obviously a better solution.

Exactly as you say, these are the deciding factors. Will your D9 avoid the vest and make more money than Macmillian? and can you spend the extra cash on something that will score more than 324 points?

Exactly as you yourself and tg pointed out, it's all about the buy in price, and what you can do with difference. Not only should $150k get you those 324 points, or more, it could potentially save you a trade, by turning a slightly borderline selection into a solid Keeper.

 

[Rowsus]

Rampe vs yarran? Both have good DE (from watching)? And do u think they will be the designated kicker out of defense. Thanks bud

My first choice is neither, then Rampe, because he's cheaper than Yarran. I can't see there being a lot between their scoring, and if it is going to be a mistake selection (that you are going to ride out in at least the short term), then the cheaper the better.
I actually don't believe in the concept of a "designated kicker" out of defence. There's no doubt there are players Coaches would prefer to see with the ball in their hand, but no team can run with a "give it to Johno" type plan. It's too predictable, and too easy to defend against. Plus, with the number of times each side comes out of Def in a game, they'd be getting 30 to 40 kicks (if they weren't tagged).

 

[Rowsus]

Good evening or morning where you are Rowsus.

I will make this quick. I want one $200k rookie mid. So taking likely consistent output and JS into account, in what order would you select Newton, Sheed and Cripps. Right now personally I'm tossing up Sheed vs Cripps as I question Newton's tank as he has faded in large patches of the Nab. If Newton was a seasoned campaigner it wouldn't worry me as much, but for a guy pushing for rd 1 alarm bells are ringing especially with Vince to come back in.

Good evening _Slip_
I share your concerns with Newton. He's no Tyson, and I'm not starting with him.
I ended up taking Cripps over Sheed. Sheed has the better JS, but I just like Cripps scoring potential, even with the likes of Gibbs to come back into the team. Sheed doesn't seem to be getting scores to match his possessions, which worries me a bit. Some will run with both, or even all 3. Right now I'm running a huge risk/smokey in my Fwd line, so I can't afford two of them. Even if I could, I think I'd still only start Cripps.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus, I am after to some help. I am taking a closer look at Michael Johnson and according to tooserious.net his SC price finished at $386,000 (2014 season link). He is listed at $486,500 this season, is there any reason for this 100k price increase?
While he is on your mind is there anything you can offer on MJ?

Cheers mate

Hey mate,

Prices don't carry over from year to year. It's based on the magic number and season average. MJ's price was fairly low at the end of the season due to a handful of 60's in the last 5 or so rounds so he had a large price drop to finish the year. But his 2015 starting price is based on his overall average from last year multiplied by the magic number. Hopefully the way I've explained that has made sense haha happy for anyone else to provide a better explanation

yeah i knew that but he played 18 games and ended with that price, I didnt think the 100k increase was implemented for players who played so many games in the previous season. Cheers tho

His price for this season is based on his average from the whole of last season, not what price he finished on last season.

Siwel, as the Guys have pointed out, pricing at the start of the year is entirely based on last seasons average, and then discounts are applied for players with less than 7 games played. It's actually conceivable, if you have say a couple of injury/sub affected scores in about Rounds 19 and 20, to finish a season on a price of $300k, but you still averaged mid to high 90's, and your price for Round 1 next season is $500k. This season every player not eligible for a discount had their last seasons average multiplied by 5375 to get their opening price. No one's opening price is ever increased, but sometimes, and we don't know why, the discounts aren't fully applied for playing few games.
As to MJ.
One of Ross Lyon's favourite players. He has been quoted as saying, "if they were all Michael Johnson's, my job would be so much easier!".
He is consistently just outside the top 8 Defs the last couple of seasons, and could easily sneak in this season. Was looking like he would last season, until injury ruined his season and average.
He's in my team.

 

[Rowsus]

Another question Rowsus, however much information you want to share is up to you.

Which are your most promising players due to statistical trends coming into this season? Maybe you could categorise them into areas such as Fallen Premium, Breakout and Mid-Pricer.

I pay close attention to this thread and am aware of some that you are keen to but wondering if these have changed due to the NAB Cup and if you would be willing to condense your pages and pages of analysis of players to look at into one epic post.

I sort of feel this was covered in the "KLo and Rows Table Show" threads.
I would like to help, and go through it all, but unfortunately it is too time consuming at this late stage. I wouldn't have time to work on anything else but this before the season begins, if I started it now. Sorry.

I think it is only the third time I've declined to do the work to answer a question, in over 1,000 questions.

 

[_Slip_]

Good evening _Slip_
I share your concerns with Newton. He's no Tyson, and I'm not starting with him.
I ended up taking Cripps over Sheed. Sheed has the better JS, but I just like Cripps scoring potential, even with the likes of Gibbs to come back into the team. Sheed doesn't seem to be getting scores to match his possessions, which worries me a bit. Some will run with both, or even all 3. Right now I'm running a huge risk/smokey in my Fwd line, so I can't afford two of them. Even if I could, I think I'd still only start Cripps.

Thanks Rowsus I was thinking the same thing. Can't wait to hear who your smokey is once the season starts.

 

[Mudflap]

Good evening _Slip_
I share your concerns with Newton. He's no Tyson, and I'm not starting with him.
I ended up taking Cripps over Sheed. Sheed has the better JS, but I just like Cripps scoring potential, even with the likes of Gibbs to come back into the team. Sheed doesn't seem to be getting scores to match his possessions, which worries me a bit. Some will run with both, or even all 3. Right now I'm running a huge risk/smokey in my Fwd line, so I can't afford two of them. Even if I could, I think I'd still only start Cripps.

You know this will only start everyone trying to guess who this player is???

I will start the bidding with Claye Beams?

 

[_Slip_]

Good evening _Slip_
I share your concerns with Newton. He's no Tyson, and I'm not starting with him.
I ended up taking Cripps over Sheed. Sheed has the better JS, but I just like Cripps scoring potential, even with the likes of Gibbs to come back into the team. Sheed doesn't seem to be getting scores to match his possessions, which worries me a bit. Some will run with both, or even all 3. Right now I'm running a huge risk/smokey in my Fwd line, so I can't afford two of them. Even if I could, I think I'd still only start Cripps.

You know this will only start everyone trying to guess who this player is???

I will start the bidding with Claye Beams?

It's Colin Sylvia isn't it In all seriousness I know you like to be different ... so maybe Michael Walters? Actually you are Demons man and Walters might be a bit too pricey so my guess is Jeff Garlett who is avg. 92 in Nab.

 

[fodzilla]

No one's opening price is ever increased

...unless they score below the average implied by the rookie base price. It's happened a couple of times with guys who've had just a single game in a season and worn the green vest for most of it.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Hey Goodies,
I must admit, I hate questions like this. They're very hard to get right, and you can end up looking a bit of a goose.
Total points
Selwood
Pendlebury
JPK
Rocky
Sloane
Ablett
Priddis
Fyfe
Ward
Sidebottom

Ave
Ablett
Rockliff
Selwood
Pendlebury
Fyfe
JPK
Beams
Sloane
Hannebery
Heppell

Hmmm, no Beams in the top 10 overall for points scored.
Pretty much what I was hoping to see, in terms of my starting MIDs.

 

[anfa18]

Right now I'm running a huge risk/smokey in my Fwd line, so I can't afford two of them. Even if I could, I think I'd still only start Cripps.

I'll have a guess with Josh Kelly...

 

[jarrad_]

would love your views on tom mcdonald

have noticed his pre season scores and kicking efficiency have been quite good especially with frost in the team

pre season wonder or gold?

same with cam sutcliffe thanks in advance

to continue on with the guessing game is it jack martin or dean towers?

 

[Blossoms]

You know this will only start everyone trying to guess who this player is???

I will start the bidding with Claye Beams?

My guess is Aaron Young.

 

[Grant]

...unless they score below the average implied by the rookie base price. It's happened a couple of times with guys who've had just a single game in a season and worn the green vest for most of it.

I thought Luke McGuane would be an example. Averaged 16.67 in three games last season despite having 84.2% tog. Priced at 166.8k (should be a rock bottom price), which is about 10k per point!

 

[Goodie's Guns]

My guess is Aaron Young.

I've got a mate who's had a couple of looks at him, but in the end decided against it.