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Opinion Questions For Rowsus
- Thread starter Rowsus
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Hey Pro,
I'm a bit worried about finding enough Rookies, so Smith does represent a "bird in the hand" proposition, that is very tempting. I've decided to go without him, and keep my fingers crossed enough of the others pop up, now I have "lost" Lambert. As you say, I think he's a low 50's player, and if I can, I want to avoid a slowburner in my Midfield. If you think Cripps is only good for 74-78, I'd look elsewhere. We can hopefully achieve that with Rookies that cost less than $200k.
I'm a bit worried about finding enough Rookies, so Smith does represent a "bird in the hand" proposition, that is very tempting. I've decided to go without him, and keep my fingers crossed enough of the others pop up, now I have "lost" Lambert. As you say, I think he's a low 50's player, and if I can, I want to avoid a slowburner in my Midfield. If you think Cripps is only good for 74-78, I'd look elsewhere. We can hopefully achieve that with Rookies that cost less than $200k.
Hi THCLT,
I'd rate them Lumumba as the most likely to succeed as a Def Keeper, then the other 3 are all pretty equal. I think Houli is the least likely to get into the low to mid 90's, as his history looks pretty set. Broadbent looks to have more potential upside than the other 2, but is also the most likely to fail, too.
All things considered. Lumumba and Kelly if you want to be safer, Lumumba and Broadbent if you want to take a risk.
I'd rate them Lumumba as the most likely to succeed as a Def Keeper, then the other 3 are all pretty equal. I think Houli is the least likely to get into the low to mid 90's, as his history looks pretty set. Broadbent looks to have more potential upside than the other 2, but is also the most likely to fail, too.
All things considered. Lumumba and Kelly if you want to be safer, Lumumba and Broadbent if you want to take a risk.
Hi Rowsus,
Getting nervous now?!
What do you expect Dane Swan to average this year? A lot of teams seem to be excluding him coming into lockout (although overall ownership is sitting around 45%)
His history is hard to look past with 2014 being an exception, even a small drop in average from the ~120s he hit for 5 years straight would mean he is still a valuable pick at F3/4 at $460k.
Cheers
Getting nervous now?!
What do you expect Dane Swan to average this year? A lot of teams seem to be excluding him coming into lockout (although overall ownership is sitting around 45%)
His history is hard to look past with 2014 being an exception, even a small drop in average from the ~120s he hit for 5 years straight would mean he is still a valuable pick at F3/4 at $460k.
Cheers
Hey Rowsus, just a quick one which has been constantly playing on my mind for the past few days.
Dustin Martin. I don't have him and haven't had him all preseason preferring Gray and Bartel instead. However I am now second guessing myself solely due to his popularity, I have seen his name in almost every team and according to supercoach gold he appears in a whopping 44% of teams. If I don't select him and he goes bang then I am behind a lot of coaches.
I think I read that you were one of those starting him so what do you think Dusty will average in 2015, why are you selecting him and is it worth getting him in my team just so I don't miss out?
Thanks Rowsus, it feels like its been a really long preseason but we are nearly there!
Dustin Martin. I don't have him and haven't had him all preseason preferring Gray and Bartel instead. However I am now second guessing myself solely due to his popularity, I have seen his name in almost every team and according to supercoach gold he appears in a whopping 44% of teams. If I don't select him and he goes bang then I am behind a lot of coaches.
I think I read that you were one of those starting him so what do you think Dusty will average in 2015, why are you selecting him and is it worth getting him in my team just so I don't miss out?
Thanks Rowsus, it feels like its been a really long preseason but we are nearly there!
Hi Halfy,
no, I'm not nervous, but I'm not setting high expectations either.
I'm one of the 55% without him. I expect to start ok, play his usual blitzing role on Anzac day, and drop off, particularly in the 2nd half of the season. I think he might end up around 18-19 games, and be just above, or just below 90/game by the seasons end.
I don't think he's anything like the player that hit those 120 averages so consistently, and Collingwood aren't the same team, either.
no, I'm not nervous, but I'm not setting high expectations either.
I'm one of the 55% without him. I expect to start ok, play his usual blitzing role on Anzac day, and drop off, particularly in the 2nd half of the season. I think he might end up around 18-19 games, and be just above, or just below 90/game by the seasons end.
I don't think he's anything like the player that hit those 120 averages so consistently, and Collingwood aren't the same team, either.
Hey ZP,
I certainly wouldn't go changing your team to include one of the more expensive Premiums, just because he has a ownership %. We can't include them all, and you left him out for a reason. I'd back your judgement/gut feel, rather thange because of a popularity contest.
I think he will average around 103-105, but that's just me. Yes, he's in my starting team, but he's not in 56% of teams, and that's more than 44%.
I certainly wouldn't go changing your team to include one of the more expensive Premiums, just because he has a ownership %. We can't include them all, and you left him out for a reason. I'd back your judgement/gut feel, rather thange because of a popularity contest.
I think he will average around 103-105, but that's just me. Yes, he's in my starting team, but he's not in 56% of teams, and that's more than 44%.
I don't like him. I think he is more likely to play a negating role, than a SC friendly role. 2 of his 3 NAB Cup games were not great, score wise, and he only averaged around 75 SC points/100%TOG. If he scores at that rate, and plays around 85% TOG, he will only average around 65. That would mean we are only expecting around $30k growth in his price. I would only take him if you expect him to average 80+, so you can get at least $100k growth out of him.
Hey Rowsus,
Nervous times ahead!
Just wondering about your Ruck coverage, I, like you initially had Nic Nat as R2 and then Lycett as Ruck/Fwd cover but currently have just Lycett at R2 and no cover.
Do you still have your cover? As I have currently Rocky and Ablett I do not have cash anymore to have this cover and I am stuck with 3 rookies in starting fwd line (including Clark).
Would have to drop my M5 to another rookie. Do think its necessary?
I believe my M5 should average 100+.
So I guess its Lycett and Nic Nat vs M5 (100+) and say Hogan
Any suggestions
Nervous times ahead!
Just wondering about your Ruck coverage, I, like you initially had Nic Nat as R2 and then Lycett as Ruck/Fwd cover but currently have just Lycett at R2 and no cover.
Do you still have your cover? As I have currently Rocky and Ablett I do not have cash anymore to have this cover and I am stuck with 3 rookies in starting fwd line (including Clark).
Would have to drop my M5 to another rookie. Do think its necessary?
I believe my M5 should average 100+.
So I guess its Lycett and Nic Nat vs M5 (100+) and say Hogan
Any suggestions
Hey Slammer,
to be honest, unless you think your M5 is well above 100, I think NicNat and Lycett will outscore your M5 + Hogan. I'm not holding high hopes for Hogan to be anything more than a 65 player this season.
My opinion aside, there is nothing wrong with backing a strong M5 over Lycett/Ruck cover. Playing Lycett at R2, with the aim of upgrading a Fwd to a R1/R2, and dropping Lycett down to the Fwd line in about Rnd 6 or 7, is a path a few smart Coaches are taking, and there's nothing wrong with that plan. It locks a trade/donut into your team if you get a R1/R2 out before that, but that is the risk side of the risk/reward equation. I don't think my estimated gain of NN/Lycett over your M5/Hogan is enough for you to change your plan, particularly as it sounds like you are pretty keen on your M5. I'd stick fat with what you've got.
No (SC) love for Hodge here. He's a monty to get protected, rested and vested. It devalues his worth to your team, and isn't worth the risk. I think he will play 18-19 games at around the low 90's. Included in those games will be a red vest or two, and a "protected" run or two, where they bench him a bit more than normal, or sit him in a back pocket, when the game is iced. If it's 18 games at 92, and you're Lucky enough to have coverage when he's out (that might be a big "if" this year!), and that coverage scores 60, his 92 PIT60's down to 86. I think to take Hodge, you need to think he can average 100 again this year, just to compensate for the missed games and vests. He's only managed 100 in 2 of the last 6 seasons, and I can't see his problems getting less with age.
Rance has been there abouts, or just outside the top Defs in a few seasons, particularly when you break the seasons into 2 halves. He has snuck into the top 10 for half a season here and there. I just worry that he suffers that tall player curse, especially for Defs. He can score his 100+ scores, but he just throws in too many 40's and 50's that drag his average down. He's not for me. Avoid tall Defenders, unless the team has 3 or 4 of them, and you are confident in your choices role within the team. Broady is a chance to post a low 90 season, unfortunately, he's just as likely to post a low 80 season, too!
to be honest, unless you think your M5 is well above 100, I think NicNat and Lycett will outscore your M5 + Hogan. I'm not holding high hopes for Hogan to be anything more than a 65 player this season.
My opinion aside, there is nothing wrong with backing a strong M5 over Lycett/Ruck cover. Playing Lycett at R2, with the aim of upgrading a Fwd to a R1/R2, and dropping Lycett down to the Fwd line in about Rnd 6 or 7, is a path a few smart Coaches are taking, and there's nothing wrong with that plan. It locks a trade/donut into your team if you get a R1/R2 out before that, but that is the risk side of the risk/reward equation. I don't think my estimated gain of NN/Lycett over your M5/Hogan is enough for you to change your plan, particularly as it sounds like you are pretty keen on your M5. I'd stick fat with what you've got.
No (SC) love for Hodge here. He's a monty to get protected, rested and vested. It devalues his worth to your team, and isn't worth the risk. I think he will play 18-19 games at around the low 90's. Included in those games will be a red vest or two, and a "protected" run or two, where they bench him a bit more than normal, or sit him in a back pocket, when the game is iced. If it's 18 games at 92, and you're Lucky enough to have coverage when he's out (that might be a big "if" this year!), and that coverage scores 60, his 92 PIT60's down to 86. I think to take Hodge, you need to think he can average 100 again this year, just to compensate for the missed games and vests. He's only managed 100 in 2 of the last 6 seasons, and I can't see his problems getting less with age.
Rance has been there abouts, or just outside the top Defs in a few seasons, particularly when you break the seasons into 2 halves. He has snuck into the top 10 for half a season here and there. I just worry that he suffers that tall player curse, especially for Defs. He can score his 100+ scores, but he just throws in too many 40's and 50's that drag his average down. He's not for me. Avoid tall Defenders, unless the team has 3 or 4 of them, and you are confident in your choices role within the team. Broady is a chance to post a low 90 season, unfortunately, he's just as likely to post a low 80 season, too!
Happy to be of been of service, chels. I've enjoyed our conversations on the various ways of looking at and interpreting stats. 
A quick SC question that has me confused. 30 March the tiges promote Kent Lambert from the rookie list. 1 April they list him as an emergency. Does not add up to me - why promote a rookie you are not going to play. I am tempted to put him on the bench, as his minimum price helps so many other lines. Any thoughts?
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