Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,
Just thinking what your thoughts are on Will Minson?
Been tossing up between him and Maric all preseason and he is quite enticing at 500k
My question is do you know why he broke out in 2013 with a whopping average of 114 and then why he slumped back to his former self last year with an average of 93.3?
Will the new ruck rules help or hinder his output for 2015?
Are there better ruck options (not a fan of Nic Nat)
Thanks mate! Love your work

Hey Woodsey,
I'm on record as saying that Minson's 2013 season was a spike year, and unlikely to be repeated. Outside of that year he has never shown us anything to suggest he can score at that level. I don't think he will be affected any differently than the other Rucks by the new rules, so we just ignore that with him.
I can't really see any "value" picks in the Ruck this year, so you either try and pick a set and forget pair, or pick the cheapest Ruck you have confidence in.
Sorry I couldn't be more help.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Should I take out Nic Nat and put Bellchambers in R2?

Or Bartel- My forward line would then be: Gray, Swan, Bellchambers?

Or Swan- My forward line would then be: Gray, Bartel, Bellchambers?

Thanks,
BomberSam.

Hey BS,
if you believe TBC will play consistently, and raise his price by at least around $70k, and you have doubts on NicNat, then go TBC. I'm not confident in either of them right now. I have much more confidence in Bartel averaging 100+ this season than Swan.

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rowsus,

I believe you have been keen on Rocky all pre-season due to the uncertainty of Ablett.
Now its full steam ahead for Gaz and he will play in the mids. Have you changed your mind?
Are you confident in Gaz's shoulder to stand the test and for him to continue as he left off? Or do you see a decrease in his output?
Was just wondering what people are going to do now.
Is it a good idea to start with both? Then if it looks like either of them will fail to maintain or get close to their normal output you could downgrade prior to round 3.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

I believe you have been keen on Rocky all pre-season due to the uncertainty of Ablett.
Now its full steam ahead for Gaz and he will play in the mids. Have you changed your mind?
Are you confident in Gaz's shoulder to stand the test and for him to continue as he left off? Or do you see a decrease in his output?
Was just wondering what people are going to do now.
Is it a good idea to start with both? Then if it looks like either of them will fail to maintain or get close to their normal output you could downgrade prior to round 3.

Hey Slammer,
my interest in Rocky had nothing to do with the doubts on Ablett, it is more to do with Rocky being the 50 and 100 game historical benchmark. Why can't he continue in something like that fashion? He doesn't have to stay the benchmark, just be there abouts, seeing as he is "competing" with Pendlebury and Selwood for the benchmark title.
I think it is a good idea to start at least one of them, and I am currently starting both. As you alluded to, it is easier to take them out of your team if there is something wrong, than put them into your team later, if they fire.

 

[dazal_]

Hey Rowsus,

Been keeping an eye on this thread the last few weeks. Huge effort mate!

I'm intrigued with your Lycett pick in the forward line and how you mentioned every game he plays (covering an injured ruck) improves his average by 3.

I think the new ruck rule is going to separate the men from the boys this year, particularly if we see a few of the leading candidates miss a game here or there (see Mumford last year - 4 weeks @ 150 per game followed by huge absences). So with this in mind - I've whacked in a FWD/R, but gone with a more set and forget candidate with Ryder.

Just wondering what your thoughts are on Patty this year, given he's going to be sharing the load in the ruck and spending more time up forward?

Cheers,

 

[siwel]

James Kelly, Michael Johnson and Heath Shaw - which 2 would you pick and why? thanks again

 

[siwel]

Further to my question above #3709 do you have an opinion on James Kelly this year (esp considering those realistic options to avg over 100 this season)

Also do you or any Geelong fans know where he played the majority of his NAB cup games this preseason? If it is mid I am very keen on him

 

[Bomber18]

Further to my question above #3709 do you have an opinion on James Kelly this year (esp considering those realistic options to avg over 100 this season)

Also do you or any Geelong fans know where he played the majority of his NAB cup games this preseason? If it is mid I am very keen on him

I watched some of his games. Played a lot more time in the mids than usual, but did go to half back as well.

 

[siwel]

I watched some of his games. Played a lot more time in the mids than usual, but did go to half back as well.

Thanks mate. Looking the goods for me then

 

[mproust]

With the return of Hibberd, do you go Hibberd over Michael Johnson?

 

[Santoz]

With the return of Hibberd, do you go Hibberd over Michael Johnson?

Hibberd's hammies concern me.

Johnson & Gibson look like they'll play similar roles in their respective teams. Intercept marks & freed up to quarterback.

About as lockable as any back me thinks ...

 

[SC FANATIC]

Hey Rowsus, you probably already have been asked this (would look through comments buy 186 pages :O ) but have you ever worked as a statistician or a similar job?

What are your thoughts on Michael Walters as a selection? In 2013 he averaged 88.8 from 18 games with only 2 scores over 115 which shows his consistency especially for somebody who plays predominantly as a small forward. Last year he only played 6 games due to injury and scored 2 tons in his final two H & A games. He's currently 24 years of age and seems to have plenty of upside considering his low price of $383,000. Unfortunately due to structure i have not not been able to fit him into my team atm but that could change.

What do you think of Mitch Duncan as a selection? What would he have to score to be a keeper? His average has improved every year since his debut with an average of 100 from 22 games last year. He is extremely durable missing only 1 game in the last 3 years and will probably always avoid a tag due to having Selwood and a plethora of other stars as teammates.

Will the inclusion of Nick Malceski be of detriment of benefit to the scoring of other suns backs such as KK and McKenzie?

Sorry for all the questions but i see you as a SuperCoach Oracle and you seem to enjoy helping out others in the SCS community

Cheers

 

[HirdofMe?]

Hi Rowsus,

I have been reading this thread all preseason, it has been invaluable! I thought I should join in and ask you a question which has been troubling me the last few days.

Newnes v Higgins, who do you think is the better pick?

Apologies if this has already been asked.

Cheers, keep up the good work

 

[Prochard]

Hey Rowsus what are your thoughts on Clem Smith and Patrick Crips?
I think crips will average 74-78
Smith 55-65
Do these averages justify the selections?

 

[THCLT]

Hi Rowsus,

Just re-jigging my DEF with the intent of looking for players with demonstrated durability and consistency, how would you rank J Kelly v B Houli v M Broadbent v H Lumumba as I would need to select 2 from the list?

My thoughts are:

J Kelly - proven 90+ average and likely to miss 2 games, 31+ years old a worry?
B Houli - has established a scoring pattern of around 85 and only missed 2 games over the last 4 years, likely to lift his average with a better Tigers outfit?
M Broadbent - has average 82 over the last 3 seasons without missing a game, at 25 years old, could this be the year he climbs into the T10 DEF as PA continue their rise?
H Lumumba - history suggests probably only a 75-80 player, how strongly should we factor in new club, new role, new 'leash of life'

Over to you...

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Been keeping an eye on this thread the last few weeks. Huge effort mate!

I'm intrigued with your Lycett pick in the forward line and how you mentioned every game he plays (covering an injured ruck) improves his average by 3.

I think the new ruck rule is going to separate the men from the boys this year, particularly if we see a few of the leading candidates miss a game here or there (see Mumford last year - 4 weeks @ 150 per game followed by huge absences). So with this in mind - I've whacked in a FWD/R, but gone with a more set and forget candidate with Ryder.

Just wondering what your thoughts are on Patty this year, given he's going to be sharing the load in the ruck and spending more time up forward?

Cheers,

Hey dazal_,
I'm worried about Ryder on a few levels.
Underdone because of missing practice matches due to ASADA.
Lobbe will probably dominate the Ruck time. I think Ryder will be used their minimally around the ground, but a lot down Fwd.
Port's Fwd line is pretty strong with Schulz and Westhoff (when he's not pushed up the ground), and the likes of Wingard and Gray kicking over 40 goals last season. I'm not sure Ryder will get the 2 goals/game I'd like, if he playing as a Fwd/Ruck, rather than a Ruck/Fwd.
Given all that, and his higher price, against Lycett's lower price and potential, I went with Lycett. It certainly doesn't preclude Ryder from being a good pick though.

 

[Rowsus]

James Kelly, Michael Johnson and Heath Shaw - which 2 would you pick and why? thanks again

Further to my question above #3709 do you have an opinion on James Kelly this year (esp considering those realistic options to avg over 100 this season)

Also do you or any Geelong fans know where he played the majority of his NAB cup games this preseason? If it is mid I am very keen on him

I watched some of his games. Played a lot more time in the mids than usual, but did go to half back as well.

MJ and Heater.

MJ is very consistent, plays a really friendly SC role.
Heater doesn't ever play 22 games, in the last 9 seasons he has played 167 games, but never averaged under 90. He's 29, and playing in a side that is improving, so their share of the pie should be increasing this season. I can see him playing 19 games and being in the 94-96 area.
Kelly doesn't play 22 too often either. In the last 7 seasons he has played 131 games, and 4 of those 7 seasons have been hovering around or below 90. He has been playing a very negative role in a lot of games the last 2 seasons. He's 31, and he's more likely to slide backwards than Heater, and despite Scott's Words that the like of Kelly and Bartel should/could play mid this season, we can't be sure if Kelly's role will still be negative in their. He's not the worst pick out there, I just see more downside than upside to him though.

 

[Rowsus]

With the return of Hibberd, do you go Hibberd over Michael Johnson?

Hibberd's hammies concern me.

Johnson & Gibson look like they'll play similar roles in their respective teams. Intercept marks & freed up to quarterback.

About as lockable as any back me thinks ...

I'm not interested in picking any Essendon players yet. There still is some baggage that comes with them (underdone preseasons etc), and I'd prefer to see them first. I actually expect them to go really well in the first week or two, as the relief of the lifted burdeon gives them a bit of a high. As with every high, there is a following flat spot, and that's exactly what I am waiting to ride out. I don't want to take players I'm expecting to hit a flat spot, after coming off a high. No pun on drugs intended.
I like MJ, I'm worried about how Hawthorn change players roles around. Gibson/Burgoyne look good in isolation, but they each only have 2 good seasons in the last 6 or 7. I can't rely on them to produce the goods consistently enough to take them. Both will probably kill it now!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, you probably already have been asked this (would look through comments buy 186 pages :O ) but have you ever worked as a statistician or a similar job?

No, I've never worked as a statistician. If had my time over Again, I would have probably would have become an actuary.

What are your thoughts on Michael Walters as a selection? In 2013 he averaged 88.8 from 18 games with only 2 scores over 115 which shows his consistency especially for somebody who plays predominantly as a small forward. Last year he only played 6 games due to injury and scored 2 tons in his final two H & A games. He's currently 24 years of age and seems to have plenty of upside considering his low price of $383,000. Unfortunately due to structure i have not not been able to fit him into my team atm but that could change.

I can't see him getting enough Midtime to make his scoring worthwhile. He pretty match matches Betts on a goals/game basis, but also is probably just as good/bad pick as Betts. Small Fwds are historically SC poison, and I can't see Walters changing this.

What do you think of Mitch Duncan as a selection? What would he have to score to be a keeper? His average has improved every year since his debut with an average of 100 from 22 games last year. He is extremely durable missing only 1 game in the last 3 years and will probably always avoid a tag due to having Selwood and a plethora of other stars as teammates.

I can't see him scoring high enough to be a good selection. you can check his table in The KLo and Row Table Show. As to what he needs to average to be a Keeper, he needs to average whatever you'd like from your M8. some people want 105, some want 110, I think somewhere inbetween is acceptable.

Will the inclusion of Nick Malceski be of detriment of benefit to the scoring of other suns backs such as KK and McKenzie?

I think it probably might hurt McKenzie a little, and mostly have no affect on KK. In general, I wouldn't over think things like that. It shouldn't be enough to dissuade you from either, if you really like them.

Sorry for all the questions but i see you as a SuperCoach Oracle and you seem to enjoy helping out others in the SCS community

Cheers

No need for the apology, ask as many questions as you like. I hope it helped.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

I have been reading this thread all preseason, it has been invaluable! I thought I should join in and ask you a question which has been troubling me the last few days.

Newnes v Higgins, who do you think is the better pick?

Apologies if this has already been asked.

Cheers, keep up the good work

Hi Hirdofme?
Higgins has only averaged 80+ twice in 9 seasons, and only managed 20 games twice in that time. Even though he is at a new/better Club, he is still Higgins, and likely to get injured and cough up disappointing scores.
Newnes is a young player on the up, so has an upside that Higgins may not have. He played 22 games at 80+ last season, which Higgins has never done! Remember, if Higgins misses 3 games, it greatly devalues his input into your team.
I think Newnes is an easy pick over Higgins.