Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Bob Loblaw]

Hey Rowus,
Just a quicky. I remember seeing somewhere you said you try to get x points or y $ from each trade. I've spent 10 minutes trying to find it. Just wondering what those figures are and the reasoning behind that amount, if there is any (which I'm sure there is). Don't need a whole 2 hours work deconstruction though. Cheers

 

[darkshines]

Hey Rowus,
Just a quicky. I remember seeing somewhere you said you try to get x points or y $ from each trade. I've spent 10 minutes trying to find it. Just wondering what those figures are and the reasoning behind that amount, if there is any (which I'm sure there is). Don't need a whole 2 hours work deconstruction though. Cheers

$200k per trade rings a bell?

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, I'm thinking of pulling the trigger on TBC (F4)

With all the madness around ruck scoring, combined with his knee problems (why did i get him in the first place ), I think he's a liability to have in the forward line, seeing as ruckmen score less now. I can either downgrade him to Jack Lonie and use the cash next week to get some quality premos in my side (e.g. Griffen>Wines, Lumumba>Smith if need be) or I can get Lumumba out for a cheaper priced defender in Vlastuin, and use the cash to go TBC>Adams.

On that note, what are your thoughts on Vlastuin? I've seen a lot of talk about Hunt, but I have more confidence in Vlastuin being a higher draft pick, showing potential in his first season as well as this year being his third season. I think he may average 90-95 which is great for D6, what do you reckon?

Cheers

Hey dyii,
I'd stick to your guns. Unless TBC is a late out, ride him out a bit longer, like you inrended to. The jury is still out on Lonie, and if he gives us a sub 50 Again this week, you won't really have gained much for your trade. Don't let one weeks disappointment change your well considered plans. I am 90% sure we will see a few Rucks with 100+ scores this week. Who knows, even TBC might do it!

edit - sorry, I forgot about Vlastuin. I think he has potential, but will get a few low scores when given negative roles. It would surprise me if averaged 90-95, but I've been surprised before.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowus,
Just a quicky. I remember seeing somewhere you said you try to get x points or y $ from each trade. I've spent 10 minutes trying to find it. Just wondering what those figures are and the reasoning behind that amount, if there is any (which I'm sure there is). Don't need a whole 2 hours work deconstruction though. Cheers

$200k per trade rings a bell?

Hey McC, dark, it goes something like this, in simple terms.

Two Rookies get fat, and reach say $325k each.
You downgrade one to another $125k Rookie - $200k made.
You grab a $525 Keeper with the left over. The inference being the Rookie was a 65 player, and the $525k player is a 105(+) player.
This is derived by $325,000/5,000 = 65, and $525,000/5,000 = 105.
You've used 2 trades to increase your scoring by 105-65=40/week. If we give a nominal amount of 10 games for the traded in player, as some will play more, some will play less, depending on which round your trade was made, that gives you 400 points, from 2 trades made, which equals 200 points/trade.
Each Rookie has fattened, in theory, $200k, so in theory you can attach $200k value to that trade.
Trades made earlier in the season need to make more than the 200 points for the season, and those made later in the season can have a lower expectation attached to them.
It's very rough and round, but it gives you the basic idea.

 

[Maso]

G'day rowsus, Thinking corrective trade ? i have Mummy & Bigboy in rucks with TBC forward would it be wise to ditch bigboy move TBC ruck and bring in Swanny to the forward line ? i'm not sure bigboy will average more then 75 with the new ruck scoring and doesnt seem to be in the guts either as much as i would like. Besides rucks i think my fwd line is weakest link in my team.
Team is linked

 

[Torress]

Hey Torress, thanks, I'm glad you're enjoying it.
It does seem very aggressive, and "knee-jerky" on one games information. Don't forget Adelaide slaughtered the Roos for 3 quarters, and they won't do that every week. It does look like vdB will be one of the better Rookies to have, and the differential between Newnes and Smith may well turn out to be 20/game, but I'm not sure about your solution. It nearly needs to meet your scenario to be comsidered good..... nearly. If Newnes rallies, like most people are hoping/thinking he will, and finishes in the top 8-12 Defs, it will be considered a poor set of trades. There will be other opportunities to grab Smith down the track, and I wouldn't chop Cripps, unless he is wearing the green vest tonight. Remember, it only takes one half decent game to turn a Rookies fortunes around.
I'd wait. You got your structure right by the sound of it, and this rings of second guessing after one weeks scores.

Cheers rowsus, im going to settle for this week with no trades, appreciate the reply mate

 

[THCLT]

Rowsus,

Firstly, let me clarify by stating that my rules for trading during the rounds before the first price rise are:

1. LTI's or prolonged suspensions - I have Rockliff
2. Getting your Rookies set - I have the top 7 performing Rookies <160K after RD1 (McIntosh, Saad, vdB, CEY, Heeney, Clark, Hogan) plus (N Brown, Oxley, Cripps, Cockatoo, Lang, Miller, Lonie, McGrath)
3. Correcting underperforming Midpricers and/or speculative picks.

Obviously, my trading plans are centred around Rockliff. I've put together a two weeks trading plan outlined below.

Option 1

Rockliff ---> JPK or Fyfe (replace with another ultra premium)
* This only leaves me with sufficient funds to trade a suspect Mid Rookie up to a L Jong type and/or sideway a DEF Midpricer to a Docherty.

Option 2

Rockliff ---> Swan, which will leave me with enough funds next week to do the following...

Cripps/Cockatoo/Lang ---> Docherty (via Saad to midfield)
Underperforming DEF Midpricer ---> B Smith

Let me also preface by saying that all of Swan, Docherty and Smith were sitting in my team for long periods during the pre-season. I eventually moved Smith & Docherty (based on their NAB performances) to popular picks in Newnes & Lumumba, and Swan became Bartel because I had the initial funds to do so.

My thought at the moment is that I picked Rockliff as my ultra premium so I 'should' replace like for like, am I selling Rockliff short by going with Option 2?

In essence, it's potentially Rockliff, Lumumba, Cockatoo ---> Swan, Smith, Docherty which has some merits.

Any thoughts...

 

[Rowsus]

G'day rowsus, Thinking corrective trade ? i have Mummy & Bigboy in rucks with TBC forward would it be wise to ditch bigboy move TBC ruck and bring in Swanny to the forward line ? i'm not sure bigboy will average more then 75 with the new ruck scoring and doesnt seem to be in the guts either as much as i would like. Besides rucks i think my fwd line is weakest link in my team.
Team is linked

Hey Maso,
I'd say yes, but will you then eat a donut if TBC is a late out? (McKernan isn't playing VFL!).
I'd wait for this week at least. You decided against Swan for a reason, don't let one Swan-like score seduce you.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus,

Firstly, let me clarify by stating that my rules for trading during the rounds before the first price rise are:

1. LTI's or prolonged suspensions - I have Rockliff
2. Getting your Rookies set - I have the top 7 performing Rookies <160K after RD1 (McIntosh, Saad, vdB, CEY, Heeney, Clark, Hogan) plus (N Brown, Oxley, Cripps, Cockatoo, Lang, Miller, Lonie, McGrath)
3. Correcting underperforming Midpricers and/or speculative picks.

Obviously, my trading plans are centred around Rockliff. I've put together a two weeks trading plan outlined below.

Option 1

Rockliff ---> JPK or Fyfe (replace with another ultra premium)
* This only leaves me with sufficient funds to trade a suspect Mid Rookie up to a L Jong type and/or sideway a DEF Midpricer to a Docherty.

Option 2

Rockliff ---> Swan, which will leave me with enough funds next week to do the following...

Cripps/Cockatoo/Lang ---> Docherty (via Saad to midfield)
Underperforming DEF Midpricer ---> B Smith

Let me also preface by saying that all of Swan, Docherty and Smith were sitting in my team for long periods during the pre-season. I eventually moved Smith & Docherty (based on their NAB performances) to popular picks in Newnes & Lumumba, and Swan became Bartel because I had the initial funds to do so.

My thought at the moment is that I picked Rockliff as my ultra premium so I 'should' replace like for like, am I selling Rockliff short by going with Option 2?

In essence, it's potentially Rockliff, Lumumba, Cockatoo ---> Swan, Smith, Docherty which has some merits.

Any thoughts...

Hi THCLT,
not starting Swan was a considered decision, that you shouldn't change your mind on with one games evidence.
I'd go to JPK or Fyfe, which ever one was most likely to be in your team from the start.
Give Lumumba this week, and sideways him next week if he plays like Harry O again.

 

[THCLT]

Hi THCLT,
not starting Swan was a considered decision, that you shouldn't change your mind on with one games evidence.
I'd go to JPK or Fyfe, which ever one was most likely to be in your team from the start.
Give Lumumba this week, and sideways him next week if he plays like Harry O again.

Thanks Rowsus...after much consideration, I've decided on Rockliff ---> Dangerfield, partly due to same bye round as Rockliff and also wanted to generate as much cash as possible for next week's trades.

At this stage, I'm considering Cripps ---> Bontempelli, Smith, Docherty (I like them in that order). Interested in your thoughts on those three and whether we should refrain ourselves from being seduced by their early performances? Lumumba did enough today considering the Demons 'no-show' in the second half, will be watching Newnes closely tonight to see if he survives the cut as well.

 

[Maso]

Hey Maso,
I'd say yes, but will you then eat a donut if TBC is a late out? (McKernan isn't playing VFL!).
I'd wait for this week at least. You decided against Swan for a reason, don't let one Swan-like score seduce you.

thx, i pulled the trigger on it anyways , next week cameron goes he was a failed selection thought 300k and gws early draw would see him score 90+ but not to be . was always trading him rnd 6ish but after 2 poorer games i will turn him into The bont next week (kid is a gun)
listened to a interview with Hirdy and he said TBC was fine so this was the reason i took the chance on him.

*3/4 time and swan on 52 should have saved the trade LOL !

 

[sangkuriang]

Hey Lenny5, thanks for that.
I have no doubt Dahlhaus could turn out to be a valid selection. His price is scaring a lot of people off, including me, but he could easily be a good POD selection. I think a lot of people look at him, look at the Bont, and take the Bont because of the price difference, and the media hype.

This question is becoming more relevant if anything. How much better would Dahlhaus have to do to justify his price difference? Could one of these be heading for breakout years? Role changes with a new coach.

 

[Zoku Pops]

Rowsus will you trade Ablett this week? Only reason I got him is because I didn't start with him last year and it ruined my season, this year is the opposite. Thinking he has to go.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Rowsus...after much consideration, I've decided on Rockliff ---> Dangerfield, partly due to same bye round as Rockliff and also wanted to generate as much cash as possible for next week's trades.

At this stage, I'm considering Cripps ---> Bontempelli, Smith, Docherty (I like them in that order). Interested in your thoughts on those three and whether we should refrain ourselves from being seduced by their early performances? Lumumba did enough today considering the Demons 'no-show' in the second half, will be watching Newnes closely tonight to see if he survives the cut as well.

At this point in time, that order looks correct, if Smith can play in Round 3.

 

[Prochard]

Hey Rowsus, for next week,
How does Miller>Clark, Lumumba>Smith sound?

Really want Bontempelli but has noone to downgrade/upgrade/sideways trade

 

[Rowsus]

This question is becoming more relevant if anything. How much better would Dahlhaus have to do to justify his price difference? Could one of these be heading for breakout years? Role changes with a new coach.

Using the 5,000 factor, which is about where the MN usually sits after Round 4 or 5, you'd normally want Dahl to outscore Bont by 70,400/5,000 = 14/game. But to be honest, that is just maths. If Dahl can continue to score at a Fwd Keeper level, then his Price is more than justified, and even if Bont outperformed Dahl from a lower price, you happily wear it.
The potential is there for both to breakout to Keeper level, or possibly even better this season. Certainly Beveridge has them playing a different style of game this season, and with the vacancies created by Libba, Cooney and Griffen seem to have been partially filled by these 2 in, in a more SC friendly style of game. It would be nice to see them play one or two games against tougher opposition before we all sell the farm to bring one or both in, but that's not a luxury we have.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus will you trade Ablett this week? Only reason I got him is because I didn't start with him last year and it ruined my season, this year is the opposite. Thinking he has to go.

Zoku Pops, in my head, he is already gone. We can't afford to wait, as the down side is too big now. He will have a B/E of around 220-230 this week, and if he bangs his shoulder, and he gets red vested for 40, then he will drop about $85k in price. The way he is travelling there doesn't appear to be much upside in hanging onto him.
The only thing I can say that was good about starting both Ablett and Rocky is, they are easy problems to fix, as you can bring in whoever you want for them. It puts me 2 trades behind quite a few Coaches, and if you had them both, and got your Rookies wrong, you are in for a world of early pain. Fortunately, I got the Rookies pretty right. I'm missing Hogan, but I have all the other likely suspects right now.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, for next week,
How does Miller>Clark, Lumumba>Smith sound?

Really want Bontempelli but has noone to downgrade/upgrade/sideways trade

I think your Lumumba to Smith might possibly have to wait a week. I'm guessing Smith will get a mandatory week for getting knocked out.
Why not Ablett to Bont, and Miller to Clark? Assuming Clark posts something serviceable this week. It will create a double DPP link to your Fwd line, but that's not a problem, and gives you a fist full of dollars. If Smith doesn't play next week, and Lumumba stinks it up, you'll still have enough for your Lumumba to Smith anyway.

*edit - I just realised - you may have axed Ablett already?

 

[Prochard]

Ablett is already gone, I have noone above 350k in my forward and midfield I want to get rid of :/

I think your Lumumba to Smith might possibly have to wait a week. I'm guessing Smith will get a mandatory week for getting knocked out.
Why not Ablett to Bont, and Miller to Clark? Assuming Clark posts something serviceable this week. It will create a double DPP link to your Fwd line, but that's not a problem, and gives you a fist full of dollars. If Smith doesn't play next week, and Lumumba stinks it up, you'll still have enough for your Lumumba to Smith anyway.

 

[Rowsus]

Ablett is already gone, I have noone above 350k in my forward and midfield I want to get rid of :/

Do you have enough cash leftover from Ablett to go Salem ---> Bont?
While it chops a cash cow, the equation comes down to, what do you expect them each to average?
If you believe Bont will only score at F6 level, from here on in, you don't consider it. If you think he will be at F2/3 level, I'd jump in and do it. Unless you believe Salem can average a bit more than high 70's to 80. It's never easy, is it?