Analysis Dyson Heppell

[Impromptu]

Dyson Heppell of Essendon was the NAB Rising Star Winner in 2011 and a solid SuperCoach performer in the last 2 years. However, with Heppell's solid SuperCoach performance in the last 2 years, will he take it to the next level?

Name - Dyson Heppell (ESS)
Position - DEF/MID
Price - $450,000
Average - 84.1(20), 83.4(22)
Draw - ADE, MEL, FRE, STK, COL, GWS, GEE, BRL, RIC, SYD, CARL, GCS, BYE

Yes, I'm an Essendon supporter, so I will try to provide an unbiased article. This article assumes that the 'Essendon saga' doesn't impact your decision to pick Heppell nor does it impact Heppell as a player.

REASONS FOR DYSON HEPPELL

Dyson Heppell was Essendon's first round draft pick and 8th overall in the 2010 AFL Draft, so clearly even before Heppell played an AFL game he was already highly regarded. Now potential means nothing until you become an AFL footballer.

However, since Heppell's inception to the AFL system he has done quite well. Notably, Heppell this year has been elevated to the Essendon Leadership team, which could mean nothing, but I think from a SuperCoach point of view, it doesn't hurt to have your young SuperCoach players join the Leadership team.

Heppell has posted solid averages of 83.4(2011) and 84.1(2012). Heppell has youth on his side and is unlikely to be tagged as clearly behind Watson, Goddard and Stanton. Based on natural progression, I believe at worst case scenario will at least breakeven with what he is priced at, namely 84.1. However, I think it is possible for Heppell to reach the high 90s to low 100s.

If Heppell wasn't categorised as a Defender, then clearly Heppell would be a No, but as a Defender Heppell could be a viable decision.

Heppell would obviously be a speculative selection, but I think the risk versus return scenario is a Green Light.

REASONS AGAINST DYSON HEPPELL

With only 6 positions in the SuperCoach defence, Heppell is arguably behind Goddard and Gibbs and likely behind Beau Waters and Heath Shaw. Now we assume that Corey Enright and Chris Newman are no longer SuperCoach relevant so who is likely to be in the top 6? It's a tough decision.

The major disadvantage of Heppell is we simply don't know if Heppell will continue to be a solid 80+ player or take the next step. However, with the likes of Sloane, Beams and Dangerfield taking the next step last year, Heppell could be next in line.

I've been to-ing and fro-ing with Heppell, but I think Youth might prevail here. Heppell is a Watch and nearly Likely for me.

I think the key on whether to select Heppell is more related to how many premium midfielders you intend to have rather than solely on Heppell.

Verdict: WATCH(3)

Interesting Herald Sun article:Essendon Young Gun Dyson Heppell Looking To Influence Playing Further Up the Ground

 

[Rowsus]

I wanted to see him take a little step last year, before taking him this year. He didn't. So even though I've had him in my team since he started, this year it is a NO to Heppel.

 

[Value Bets]

What are your thoughts on the effect the current issues at the Bombers might have on the players, and in turn their SuperCoach output? (if any)?

 

[Rowsus]

What are your thoughts on the effect the current issues at the Bombers might have on the players, and in turn their SuperCoach output? (if any)?

My own $0.02. A small percentage of players (8-10%) will be spurred to lift a little, maybe 5%. Most will not be affected. The last group of players (14-16%) will be distracted and drop a little, maybe 10%. So all in all, that equates to a drop of about 1-1.5% in Essendons SC scores. In other words, don't really factor it in, unless something new is introduced to the equation.

 

[Philzsay]

I voted unlikely simply due to having other preferences for my backline at the moment and he simply doesn't fit in. Because I'm lazy below is a cut and paste of my thoughts I posted a few days about Heppell.

He should at the very least maintain his average however I am not sure that he will have a major jump in SC scores yet. While he will spend more time in the midfield and is a really natural and delightful player to watch I don't think he accumulates enough possessions yet to have consistent big SC scores. He has only managed to get 5 100's in 42 games. If I was to have a guess I would say he will play 20 games at around an average of 92.

 

[Philzsay]

My own $0.02. A small percentage of players (8-10%) will be spurred to lift a little, maybe 5%. Most will not be affected. The last group of players (14-16%) will be distracted and drop a little, maybe 10%. So all in all, that equates to a drop of about 1-1.5% in Essendons SC scores. In other words, don't really factor it in, unless something new is introduced to the equation.

I pretty much agree with this. The trick is correctly guessing who may lift a little, who will stay the same and who it may affect slightly. Further I also think there is a 5% chance that a player or two may become a little hot headed defending the team/teammates in the early rounds and earn themselves a suspension for a moment of indescretion.

 

[Hairy]

Voted Watch

I'll watch him in the NAB and see. I think Danyle Pearce will have a better year than Heppell.

Using your logic Rowsus, I would assume you think that Essendon, even though only slightly behind according to the figures, will miss the 8 again.

 

[hammo42]

I wanted to see him take a little step last year, before taking him this year. He didn't.

For a kid who won the Rising Star award, I think he did very well last season to not go backwards. Winning that award may not have attracted taggers or extra attention from opponents, but certainly it would have raised expectations, increasing performance pressure on the kid.

In a recent article on Dayne Zorko it was mentioned how Daniel Rich suffered 2nd-year blues, and how Zorko is getting advice on how to back-up after a great first year.

I voted Heppell as a watch, though he has appeared in my side a few times as I've thrown options around. With very good durability, an extra pre-season under his belt, the Rising Star spotlight fading, and the suggestion of more midfield time, I think he will be very close to the top 6 aggregate scorers in defence.

 

[Impromptu]

For a kid who won the Rising Star award, I think he did very well last season to not go backwards. Winning that award may not have attracted taggers or extra attention from opponents, but certainly it would have raised expectations, increasing performance pressure on the kid.

In a recent article on Dayne Zorko it was mentioned how Daniel Rich suffered 2nd-year blues, and how Zorko is getting advice on how to back-up after a great first year.

I voted Heppell as a watch, though he has appeared in my side a few times as I've thrown options around. With very good durability, an extra pre-season under his belt, the Rising Star spotlight fading, and the suggestion of more midfield time, I think he will be very close to the top 6 aggregate scorers in defence.

Totally agree with you, but I hope me and you are not wearing our Bombers hat...LOL..

I'm a bit scared with Heppell, Brennan, Broughton in my radar (could be none, could be three), but I think Heppell is a solid selection.

 

[Nk29]

For a kid who won the Rising Star award, I think he did very well last season to not go backwards. Winning that award may not have attracted taggers or extra attention from opponents, but certainly it would have raised expectations, increasing performance pressure on the kid.

In a recent article on Dayne Zorko it was mentioned how Daniel Rich suffered 2nd-year blues, and how Zorko is getting advice on how to back-up after a great first year.

I voted Heppell as a watch, though he has appeared in my side a few times as I've thrown options around. With very good durability, an extra pre-season under his belt, the Rising Star spotlight fading, and the suggestion of more midfield time, I think he will be very close to the top 6 aggregate scorers in defence.

Joel Selwood didn't Voted Unlikely but by almost a no. Doesn't have enough impact and I don't see him in the top 10 backs this year.

 

[BC]

$450 not that expensive but considering you pay a 30k more to get players like brougton, hanely, adcock its a no for me.
If the price difference was between 80k+ then would be worth considering, in saying that i hope the kid does well, had him 2010 was great for me

 

[mpollock]

I am thinking i will probably end up with one of Heppell or Broughton ... priced about the same.
NAB watch for both these guys.

 

[IDIG]

Not for me. We've got a tougher draw this year so won't be anywhere near as many of those high possession games that he'll need to score well. At his price, there's probably 2-3 better options.

 

[Value Bets]

I don't think Hep will let you down, at worst he will average what his price indicates. He's a consistent player and should be somewhere between 80-100 this year, just depends whether you think he might push to 100 more often. He is a Watch for me atm.

 

[Courtesans]

It was only the first NAB game but he looked good last night...

 

[OzRulesFootball]

I don't think Hep will let you down, at worst he will average what his price indicates. He's a consistent player and should be somewhere between 80-100 this year, just depends whether you think he might push to 100 more often. He is a Watch for me atm.

I'm not convinced he'll hit the 100 mark.

Don't get me wrong, he is a good handy player but I don't think he gets in enough positions to get the ball often enough for someone taking a spot in Essendon's midfield. They might in time realize it is not his best value to the team being used in the engine room.

 

[Damoz]

Heppell has made it to D4, for me.

For the moment...