G'day Zagbag,
it's certainly can be one of the problems with taking those higher mid-priced players, with the intention of using them as Stepping Stones. If they perform well, you want to keep them, if they perform poorly, it's a waste of money and a trade. Steven was averaging 102 before his weekend monster, and I guess the questions become: What do you think he can achieve from here, until the end of the season, and from here, until his bye?
Before his weekend monster, 2 of his seasons best 3 scores were in a win, and a close loss. Given St Kilda's standing in the competition, they may not have too many of those after their bye. Looking at his coming opponents:
Brisbane:
Rnd 8 opposition Mids scored: 119, 112, 112 - but none of those were Watson or Heppell!
Rnd 7 Gray scored 134, and Wingard 105, but Boak 75, Ebert 73, Cornes 55
Rnd 6 Gibbs, Judd, Cripps were all between 104 and 113, but Murphy was 78
Conclusion: Brisbane can do a fair job of containing the one or two main opposition Mids.
Hawthorn:
Rnd 8 Hanne 138, Parker 124, Jack 107, JPK 104
Rnd 7 N Jones 104, next best Mid Vince 79!
Rnd 6 Ward 131, Griffen, Shiel, Treloar, Greene 101-107
Conclusion: You probably need good Midfield depth to have one or two score well against Haw.
Melbourne:
Rnd 8 Boyd 132, Dahl 124, Wallis 115, Bont got Vinced for 42
Rnd 7 Mitchell, Shiels, Hartung all 121-128, no Lewis
Rnd 6 JPK 135, Titchell, 125, Parker 119, Jack 110, but Hanne 85. Was Hanne Vinced?
Conclusion: Vince is becoming a good tagger, but the ones that don't get Vince, score well!
If you think he can't go in the 106-108 area from here, and fill a cheap M8 role, or you are scared to change plans, because changing plans can lead to things backfiring, then you need to trade him out. The question becomes, when? He has a B/E of 65, so you'd think he might rise about $15-17k after this week. One thing to keep in mind, even though Steven was averaging 102 before the weekend, his AF average was 113, that might be an indicator that he can score at an M7/8 Keeper level. He'll probably struggle against Hawthorn, and will Vince go to Armitage or Steven? Also, you need to look at what your trades are possibly going to be in the coming weeks. Do you have your eye on someone, that might need 2 trades next week? If so, it might be time to trade him this week, unless you already have those trades planned too. If you're unsure, and it all looks too hard, you should probably hold him until Round 12, and trade him then. Find your intended Rnd 11/13 target for Steven, and look at his B/E and his draw, and time your trade around him. For the moment, I'd probably keep him at least until his bye.
Bonts a tricky one, that's for sure. One thing I'm certain of, some people are too quick to label him a Prem! He's only averaged 84 in his last 5 matches, and his highest score in that time, 113 against St Kilda, was a real head scratcher. 15 possessions, no goals, an AF score of 66! Not often your SC:AF is 1.7:1! He does represent a problem. A B/E of 153 and he's already dropped nearly $25k from his peak price. He's currently priced to score around 94, and it's possible he could hold that price, after he drops a bit this week and next week. Given he's a 19 year old, 2nd year player, with only 23 games under his belt, it's also possible he will find the extra attention he's drawing too much, and his season will fall apart a bit, with the physical pressure leading to more missed games as we go along. Given his B/E, if you decide he has to go, then the sooner the better. He should lose more money than Tarrant this week, so if he's on your trade out list, he should go before Tarrant. I never had Bont, and I'm starting to feel good about that! Once again, if in doubt, hold him, but otherwise, out he goes this week!
KK hasn't scored under 81 in his last 5 games, has averaged 91 in his last 5, and 95 in his last 3. He's got a B/E of 58, and the playing list around him is riddled with holes, with 4 of last seasons 5 best Mids out with LTI's. I think you'd be mad to trade him out at the moment.
