Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus,

Just a quick one...please. Sorry to be a pain.
How important do you think it is to have a link between def/fwd when I am now low on trades. (15)
Have been looking at MJ replacements and was looking at B. Smith as a cheaper option but have also looked at McGovern.
Was thinking MJ to McGovern, Clark to H.Goddard and CEY to Wines leaving approx. $100K cash to maybe use two more trades down/up for Miller the week after)
Is it too much of a risk bringing in H.Goddard and McGovern just to open up link?
If Mackenzie plays and I bring in Wines and B.Smith (two trades only) I end with 19 this week, 20 with McGovern after the three mentioned trades.
Any thoughts appreciated
 

Rowsus

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R11 Bye - Maybe 16 players selected, maybe 17 players selected
R12 Bye- A.Oxley, N.Brown, S.Pendlebury, D.Swan, N.Fyfe, A.Saad, T.Miller, D.Mckenzie, JP.Kennedy, T.Mitchell, S.McLaren, Boston
R13 Bye- J.Selwood, M.Clark, T.Goldstein, O.Wines, J.Pittard, R.Gray, H.Shaw, K.Amon

R12 Bye- Maybe 15 players selected, maybe 17 players seleced
R11 Bye- B.Smith, J.Lever, C.Ellis-Yolmen, S.Jacobs, D.Zorko, K.Simpson, P.Cripps, D.Martin, K.Lambert, D.Beams
R13 Bye- J.Selwood, M.Clark, T.Goldstein, O.Wines, J.Pittard, R.Gray, H.Shaw, K.Amon

R13 Bye- Maybe 18 players selected, maybe 20 players selected
R11 Bye- B.Smith, J.Lever, C.Ellis-Yolmen, S.Jacobs, D.Zorko, K.Simpson, P.Cripps, D.Martin, K.Lambert, D.Beams
R12 Bye- A.Oxley, N.Brown, S.Pendlebury, D.Swan, N.Fyfe, A.Saad, T.Miller, D.Mckenzie, JP.Kennedy, T.Mitchell, S.McLaren, Boston

I will come back to this question, when we have seen the teams, as until then, we are really only guessing what your best move is.
If McKenzie isn't chopped off the extended bench, you have 17 players for the week.
I think it gives you two choices.
1) Wear the donut, it is only a Rookie donut, because if Amon was playing, you would have no donut.
2) CEY out, Saad up, and take your pick of: McGovern, H Taylor, Enright.

I wouldn't lock in the trades for the next 2 weeks just yet. Unless you are dead keen to use 3 trades next week, and you want the cash ready to do it, then you need to go Saad to A Pearce this week to be ready. You'd really need to choose out of Cripps and Saad, so I went the Saad option.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus. I'm hoping you can help out with a few trade ideas over the bye rounds. I've never really done well in these rounds! I somehow managed to jump up a few spots last week and found myself ranked 1642 overall. No chance for the prize but I am aiming to finish as well as possible this year.

I have 15 trades and $109,600.

My first thoughts were not to trade this week, but then I thought I should at least consider one (or two) downgrades to build up the bank balance. With that in mind, I'm not sure whether to go CEY to Boston and/or McIntosh to Hamling.

Next week I would look at perhaps bringing in some round 11 defenders like Murphy/Houlii/Gibson/Simpson. But who do I trade out? I am tempted to keep Brown for bench cover but is it better to cash him in? If I don't trade CEY this week I could upgrade him to a defender next week and bring Saad to the mids.

I also need to look at another forward premium but I think I need to wait until round 13 for the better options. I'm happy to hold Cripps a bit longer if need be and concentrate on my other lines. Also have Rocky and hoping he returns in a few weeks (or is that wishful thinking?) - maybe he needs to go?

I guess my biggest concern is generating enough funds to facilitate a number of upgrades over the byes.

Anyway, thanks for considering this post. I understand if it's too complicated and you don't have time!!
Hi Bobbie,
ask as many questions as you want, and make them as long and as complicated as you want.
Interestingly, your score last week was exactly what you were averaging coming into last week! (I find it interesting, anyway! :p)
I like the idea of a cash grab this week, to facilitate trading in the next two weeks. Even though it is contra-indicated, and a bit risky, I think I'd rather bring in Hamling instead of Boston, just because of the Rnd 11 vs Rnd 12 factor. Also, CEY makes you more cash in the trade, and it is probable that McIntosh makes more money by playing next week than CEY does. Using CEY complicates your M/D DPP a little, but if you want to maximise your cash flow, he's better. I'm not sure the small difference in money made in cash flow is worth the complication though.
 

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Who do you think will be the best backs from now on? I know this is a pretty hard one to get correct.

My current Backline keepers are Simpson, Shaw, Hibberd, and Newnes.

Looking at Smith, Birchall, Hodge, Houli or McDonald..

I see you think Houli will average 95 from now to the end of the season. How about the ones i have listed?
I'll pluck for:
Hodge, Shaw, Simpson, Houli, Murphy, McG.
Birchall will miss games, Smith will bounce back, but not be the player he was last season, but will be good value. McDonald will drop off a bit.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus, what a turd of a result for you last week - I feel for ya bro! Glad you're making money though.

I'm in a similar boat to you - LTIs and some dubious coaching decisions have left me struggling to afford a team full of decent premos - heading into the byes needing 6 premos (2 def, 4 mid) and that includes keeping Newnes :p. I'm thinking of going for broke over the byes - here's the plan:

RF 11: Out - Johnson, CEY and Cripps / In - Smith, Wines and Lambert
RD12: Out - Saad and Oxley / In - Beams and Hamling (switching Adamson to def)
Rd13: Out - Clark, Sheed and Hogan / In - Hanners, Sloane and Fantasia (switching Lambert to Fwd)

This would leave me with approx $125k (on today's values), 6 trades, one more Def premium to get and a no decent bench coverage (def - Adamson/Lever/Hamling, mid - Amon, Glenn and McKenzie, fwd - Lambert and Fantasia). Hopefully I'll get an opportunity to move Lambert to the mids at some stage to create the swing.

I suspect I will end up just getting fat on donuts due to a lack of trades but I'd appreciate your thoughts on the above - whilst I think I may as well go for broke I don't want to drag my leagues down by being reckless with trades or end up with a totally catastrophic rank!
Hi Bones, thanks for the good words.
I like it. As much as we are struggling, we still need a bit of positivity/aggression in our trading. With 6 trades, and $125k, and a bit of good management, I can't see you eating too many donuts.
I hope it runs well for you. Let me know how it works out.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus!

Just a quick one, who would you rate higher and to finish the season off stronger? Wines or Ward?
Also, Alex Pierce vs Boston? Who do you think the smarter pick would be? Better scoring of Boston vs job security of Pierce?
Hi wT2k,
Wines over Ward for me, just.
AP over AB. I think AB's JS might just be RS, while AP's should be OK.
 

Rowsus

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Rowsus,

As with a few others, I'm keep to bring in a replacement for Michael Johnson. Excluding the players with the R11 BYE, who would you be particularly keen on as a replacement? Personally, I'm looking at the 3 Geelong boys in Enright, Taylor and Mackie. All 3 good value options (all set to jump in price, all under $450k), but can't really decide on which would be best. Only other cheaper option I was considering was someone like McGovern.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.
TBO,
forgetting Mackie, you are considering the same 3 as me. Smith will come in next week, or the week after.
I'm leaning towards McG, but it's not an easy decision. The usual rule is History over Potential, and certainly the other 2 have the history, particularly Enright. McG might get the nod with his M/F status, and I might bring in H Goddard down the track to complete the set.
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus

What are your thoughts in a POD midfielder like Brandon Ellis? Bit expensive at $549700 but is very consistent, hasn't dropped below 90 all year and is currently averaging 107.1. Averaged 101.66 for the first 6 round when Richmond were playing average footy but since their turn of form 4 weeks ago he has averaged a very solid 115.25.

How do you see him faring from here? I see Richmond as more likely to maintain their current form, than revert back to their form of the first 6 rounds. Main reason for looking at him is not entirely keen on other R11 bye Premo mids (Sloane, Lewis, Cotchin).

Look forward to hearing your thoughts.
Cheers
MrM
Hey MrM,
I like your reasoning, but I think he will likely throw in two or three lowish scores, that will prevent him getting a 110+ average from here, and he's currently priced at close to 110 anyway. He's a great draft player, and I've had him the past couple of years, but I think he's just below the SC pass mark...... this year, anyway.
 

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Pendlebury vs Hannebury ? Who would you trade in this week? Both have round 12 bye.
As much as Pendles looks to be a bit below his best, you have to back his history in. Hannes is good, but I would expect Pendles to be better, just.
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus,

Just a quick one...please. Sorry to be a pain.
How important do you think it is to have a link between def/fwd when I am now low on trades. (15)
Have been looking at MJ replacements and was looking at B. Smith as a cheaper option but have also looked at McGovern.
Was thinking MJ to McGovern, Clark to H.Goddard and CEY to Wines leaving approx. $100K cash to maybe use two more trades down/up for Miller the week after)
Is it too much of a risk bringing in H.Goddard and McGovern just to open up link?
If Mackenzie plays and I bring in Wines and B.Smith (two trades only) I end with 19 this week, 20 with McGovern after the three mentioned trades.
Any thoughts appreciated
Hey Slammer,
it's not absolutely crucial, but I am leaning that way myself. You probably want a pretty reliable (to get on the park pretty consistently) D7 or 8 if you do it, otherwise you may lack the opportunities to use it properly. To that aim, I will probably hold Brown at D8. Even though he is only good for 50 points, if I get desperate, and need to swing McG Fwd, at least I know I have some Def cover here. It can also present some loopholing opportunities, if we are Lucky enough to have bench cover from here! Smith has Hawthorn in Rnd 12, so I might even leave hin until Rnd 13, when he should of well and truly bottomed out in price.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Row, what's the formula for calculating SC/TOG % and what's the best place to grab the information from?
Hi DJ,
one of the sites might have it somewhere, but I just calculate it myself. it is simply:

SC score / TOG%

So if you score 100 points in 80% TOG it is 100 / 80% = 125 SC/100%TOG

it Works the same for averages, as it does on a weekly basis too.
 
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If McKenzie isn't chopped off the extended bench, you have 17 players for the week.
I think it gives you two choices.
1) Wear the donut, it is only a Rookie donut, because if Amon was playing, you would have no donut.
2) CEY out, Saad up, and take your pick of: McGovern, H Taylor, Enright.

I wouldn't lock in the trades for the next 2 weeks just yet. Unless you are dead keen to use 3 trades next week, and you want the cash ready to do it, then you need to go Saad to A Pearce this week to be ready. You'd really need to choose out of Cripps and Saad, so I went the Saad option.
Thanks so much mate. Think i will go the saad - pearce option. who do you think i should get for CEY or you saying keep him?
 

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Hi Bobbie,
ask as many questions as you want, and make them as long and as complicated as you want.
Interestingly, your score last week was exactly what you were averaging coming into last week! (I find it interesting, anyway! :p)
I like the idea of a cash grab this week, to facilitate trading in the next two weeks. Even though it is contra-indicated, and a bit risky, I think I'd rather bring in Hamling instead of Boston, just because of the Rnd 11 vs Rnd 12 factor. Also, CEY makes you more cash in the trade, and it is probable that McIntosh makes more money by playing next week than CEY does. Using CEY complicates your M/D DPP a little, but if you want to maximise your cash flow, he's better. I'm not sure the small difference in money made in cash flow is worth the complication though.
Thanks for that. So you're sugesting CEY to Hamling via Saad?

How about getting greedy and doing two downgrades using both CEY and McIntosh? I could grab Hamling and either Boston or Kavanagh - not sure who to choose?

Also, is it crazy to do an upgrade this week? Tempted to offload Clark but the only decent options are Buddy or McG. Probably smarter to wait until after round 12?
 
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Hey Rowsus, just curious as to whether you've run the numbers as to who are the best Floating Donuts for the back half of the year. Cheers mate.
 
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Hi Rowsus,

Although I was expecting to have at least 20 players this week, teams selections haven't gone according to plan and have left me with 2 donuts. Tossing up between three options:

1. CEY > Boston/ Kav (whoever isn't sub) and McIntosh > McGovern

2. CEY > Boston/ Kav and Bellchambers > Harvey

3. CEY > Boston/ Kav and Krak > Harvey

The first option is the classic one up one down but unsure if McGovern is worthy? But it does help me with a R13 defender.

The second option loses that Ruck cover which I really wanted to avoid a donut for when a ruck misses a game (but bellchambers has failed me...)

The third option forces me to pick out of Boston and Kav before subs are known. Also with Harvey, I see that his last three scores against Sydney are 57, 46, 63.


Your thoughts are much appreciated.
 
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Hi Rowsus,

Although I was expecting to have at least 20 players this week, teams selections haven't gone according to plan and have left me with 2 donuts. Tossing up between three options:

1. CEY > Boston/ Kav (whoever isn't sub) and McIntosh > McGovern

2. CEY > Boston/ Kav and Bellchambers > Harvey

3. CEY > Boston/ Kav and Krak > Harvey

The first option is the classic one up one down but unsure if McGovern is worthy? But it does help me with a R13 defender.

The second option loses that Ruck cover which I really wanted to avoid a donut for when a ruck misses a game (but bellchambers has failed me...)

The third option forces me to pick out of Boston and Kav before subs are known. Also with Harvey, I see that his last three scores against Sydney are 57, 46, 63.


Your thoughts are much appreciated.
Hi hunterpunter, I'm not Rowsus, but I just thought I'd let you know that Kav was named on the field as ruck rover, and Boston on the bench. However, I read it in the paper that Malcho will be the sub tomorrow for the suns. So both won't be subs this week.
 
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Hi hunterpunter, I'm not Rowsus, but I just thought I'd let you know that Kav was named on the field as ruck rover, and Boston on the bench. However, I read it in the paper that Malcho will be the sub tomorrow for the suns. So both won't be subs this week.
So Boston is confirmed to not be sub tomorrow?
 
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So Boston is confirmed to not be sub tomorrow?
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/michael-rischitelli-says-gold-coasts-tough-draw-has-suns-in-good-shape-for-the-future/story-fni5f7ka-1227393563101

The Suns have made three changes to the side that fell to Sydney last week with Charlie Dixon, Jack Leslie and Nick Malceski coming into the side at the expense of injured trio Steve May (groin), Greg Broughton (Achilles) and Keegan Brooksby (calf).

Brooksby injured his calf at training yesterday and was replaced by Malceski who will be the sub for the Suns.


That's where I got it from. Is it believable?
 
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