Discussion SuperCoach Pre-Preseason + Mid Price Madness for 2016

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Philzsay

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Pre-draft we already know that we should have Petracca (MEL), Nick Kommer (ESS) and Sam Kerridge/Liam Sumner (CAR).
I'd cross Nick Kommer off the list. He has missed two years with knee tendonitis. Yesterday the 1-4 year players returned to a light training session and had their time trial today. Kommer is meant to be a part of that of that group yet was no where to be seen. Put a fork in him, he is done.
 
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with a "shallow" draft there should be some really good mature agers available hopefully they wont be to expensive
 
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Any inside word on him mate? Any clubs shown interest?

Good luck to him, hope he goes well.
Played in the NEAFL last season for Belconnen Magpies but the club was cut from the comp because (I believe) they didn't want to pay a huge fee to stay. He moved to S.A. to try and get into the AFL system. He is good mates with Jack Steele (GWS) and Logan Austin (Port) as they played junior footy together for ages. My cousin says that he is better than both those two and was unlucky not to get in a team last year. I went up last year and watched Chris Jansen (and my cousin) play against GWS seconds side. Belconnen got flogged and my cousin got knocked over by Tom Boyd (made my day), but Chris didn't look out of place. He was one of a very small handful that actually did something during the game. He played against the likes of Dylan Anderson, Sam Reid, Mark Whiley and a host of GWS young guns and held his own. Loves contested possessions and clearances. He puts his body on the line every time the ball goes over his head. From my POV has a good tank, about 189cm, and has a very decent frame (84kgs).

I quickly looked him up and his local paper said that he was a "key defensive player" for the side. This is crap. He played in the guts the entire time and his second position was on the bench after running his guts out. Apparently won Belconnen's B&F last year.

Here is a little write up of him from the SANFL

http://www.sanfl.com.au/news/sanfl_news/3173/
 

Philzsay

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3. Where will the rookie value be found?
After talking about the premium value to be had in the middle, it was hard not to think about the rookies and which line is best to load up with rookies for SuperCoach 2016. I have typically gone thicker with premos in defence, and thinner in the midfield. But I have a feeling this season could be the year of the rookie forward. Pre-draft we already know that we should have Petracca (MEL), Nick Kommer (ESS) and Sam Kerridge/Liam Sumner (CAR). These are guys have either played before with some rookie impact, and/or should slot into their new sides best 22. In the middle we have Freeman (STK), Trengove (MEL), Ahern (GWS), and possibly a few others. Pickett (GWS) could be M/F. Currie (GCS) is the obviously possibility in the ruck, and I can't seem to find any bargain rookie defenders at this stage (maybe Cam Delaney (GEE)). At this stage I can see myself going thinner through the forward line (3 premo, 0 midpricer, 5 rookie), a 5-2-4 midfield, 1-1-1 ruck, and 5-0-3 backline.

Does anyone else have plans like this around where the money should be spent?? Every year I spend less where the good rookies are, and more where I think the rookies are thin.
A potential lack of Backline rookies worry me at this stage. Not much on offer sub 200k. One player I'm thinking about is Lachie Plowman, noticed a fair few BF Blues supporters have him in their best 22. However Erich has him at 235k so he may be too expensive. Mind you this time last year I was also worried about my backline rookies and eventually Oxley and Saad presented themselves. What are the chances of that happening again?

I will be essentially picking my backline before my forwards, I really want to make sure I get my backline close to being right, whether that is going top heavy or trying to find some value, who knows. Last year I got half of my backline right and half wrong, the wrong half really cost me towards the end of last year. So my forward structure will become a bit dependent on the money left over after the backline spend. I think I may be light on in the forwards as well, so that I am able to squeeze in an extra premium/value mid into the side.
 
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A potential lack of Backline rookies worry me at this stage. Not much on offer sub 200k. One player I'm thinking about is Lachie Plowman, noticed a fair few BF Blues supporters have him in their best 22. However Erich has him at 235k so he may be too expensive. Mind you this time last year I was also worried about my backline rookies and eventually Oxley and Saad presented themselves. What are the chances of that happening again?

I will be essentially picking my backline before my forwards, I really want to make sure I get my backline close to being right, whether that is going top heavy or trying to find some value, who knows. Last year I got half of my backline right and half wrong, the wrong half really cost me towards the end of last year. So my forward structure will become a bit dependent on the money left over after the backline spend. I think I may be light on in the forwards as well, so that I am able to squeeze in an extra premium/value mid into the side.
Obviously pre-draft and before any preseason play we can speculate, but I think there is value to be found in the backline with premiums, and not so much with the rookies. Good to see i'm thinking along similar lines to the great Philzsay
 
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AFL draft 2015: Big SuperCoach scoring draftees to watch out for

November 11, 2015 4:46pm
Ben WaterworthFOX SPORTS
IT’S never too early to start your SuperCoach preparation.

And with the AFL draft now under two weeks away, the attention of SuperCoach owners turns to the best young talent in the country who are hoping to make their way onto senior lists next season.

Throughout 2015, Champion Data — the official AFL number crunchers — have been keeping a close eye on all under 18 competitions and recording player statistics.

And the numbers produced by some of the draft’s top prospects this season would have keen SuperCoach owners eyeing off some bargain buys for the 2016 season.

Here are 21 potential rookie bargains for SuperCoach owners to keep an eye on in the coming months.

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AFL
AFL draft 2015: Big SuperCoach scoring draftees to watch out for

November 11, 2015 4:46pm
Ben WaterworthFOX SPORTS

Don't miss 2015 NAB AFL draft on Fox Footy

IT’S never too early to start your SuperCoach preparation.

And with the AFL draft now under two weeks away, the attention of SuperCoach owners turns to the best young talent in the country who are hoping to make their way onto senior lists next season.

Throughout 2015, Champion Data — the official AFL number crunchers — have been keeping a close eye on all under 18 competitions and recording player statistics.

Jacob Weitering is the best intercept players of this year’s draft class. Picture: Glenn FergusonEric Hipwood will land at Brisbane as an academy selection. Picture: Sarah MatraySouth Australia's top draft pick could be Aaron Francis in this year’s AFL draft. Picture: Mark BrakeRyan Clarke is one of the bolters of the 2015 AFL draft. Picture: Glenn FergusonRhys Mathieson is a contested ball animal. Picture: Mitch BearJade Gresham is a ball magnet — literally. Picture: Carmelo BazzanoOakleigh Chargers’ Ben Crocker looms as a SuperCoach smokey. Picture: Josie Hayden
PICK ME: PROFILES OF THE TOP AFL DRAFT PROSPECTS

And the numbers produced by some of the draft’s top prospects this season would have keen SuperCoach owners eyeing off some bargain buys for the 2016 season.

Here are 21 potential rookie bargains for SuperCoach owners to keep an eye on in the coming months.

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DEFENDERS

Mitchell Hibberd (Tasmania)

TAC Cup average: 114 points from 3 games

U18 average: 121 points from 3 games

Hibberd is a great athlete who has excellent decision-making ability and efficiency, which always bodes well for SuperCoach scoring. Depending on which club picks him up, Hibberd could feature early in the AFL season, too, if he’s drafted to a lower-ranked club, especially since he’s a year older than most other draftees and has already developed a solid body frame.

Jacob Weitering (Vic Country, Dandenong Stingrays)

TAC Cup average: 118 points from 8 games

U18 average: 90 points from 6 games

With ample class with ball in hand and excellent intercept ability, Weitering thoroughly deserves to be the No. 1 pick in this draft. But keep in mind he’ll be an expensive buy next season and his scoring is unlikely to justify his price tag during the early stages of his career.

Eric Hipwood (Queensland)

U18 average: 134 points from 3 games

He might appear as a lanky 202cm kid, but don’t be fooled by the appearance of Brisbane academy player Hipwood, who is an incredibly agile player for his size. With the Lions desperate for key-position players, Hipwood, who averaged 22 disposals and seven marks during this season’s U18 championships, could feature early in the season.

DEFENDER-MIDFIELDERS

Tom Cole (Vic Country, Bendigo Pioneers)

TAC Cup average: 121 points from 9 games

Clearly the Pioneers’ best player in 2015, Cole is a classy ball-user off half-back who could also push into the midfield. Just as promising were his performances for Geelong’s VFL side this year, where he averaged 81 points from three games.

Brayden Fiorini (Northern Knights)

TAC Cup average: 141 points from 13 games

Unlikely to be picked up in the first round of the draft, ball magnet and effective ball user Fiorini could turn into the SuperCoach bargain of the year. If Fiorini, who averaged 32 disposals in the TAC Cup and kicked multiple goals in three of last four games, is labelled a dual-position player, jump on and pick him in your backline.

DEFENDER-FORWARDS

Aaron Francis (South Australia)

U18 average: 116 points from 6 games

So versatile he can literally play anywhere on a footy field, Francis is likely to be a pricey investment for SuperCoach owners, as he’s expected to be picked up within the first eight or so draft picks. But with a ready-made body and excellent athleticism, Francis is expected to play early in the season — and should reward you with decent scores as a defender.

MIDFIELDERS

Kieran Lovell (Tasmania)

TAC Cup average: 160 points from 4 games

U18 average: 187 points from 3 games

Yep, you read those 2015 averages right. Lovell had the footy on a string this season, averaging 35 disposals per game in the under 18s championships and 34 per game in the TAC Cup. Will be a later pick in the draft, so it’s hard to know exactly when he’ll play in 2016, but keep in mind that he’s a natural ball magnet and clearance machine.

Ben Keays (Queensland)

TAC Cup average: 150 points from 4 games

U18 average: 162 points from 3 games

Brisbane’s second academy pick will be Keays, who is a big-bodied midfielder that could walk into the club’s Round 1 side. While Keays impressed during the carnival by averaging 29 disposals, his performances at NEAFL level — he averaged 25 disposals and kicked four goals from seven games — were just as promising.

Ryan Clarke (Vic Metro, Eastern Ranges)

TAC Cup average: 137 points from 12 games

U18 average: 108 points from 5 games

The quintessential ball magnet who can run all day, Clarke is one of this season’s draft bolters, primarily thanks to his scintillating back end to the season. In three consecutive TAC Cup games mid-season, he racked 30, 42 and 45 disposals respectively. Clarke averaged 30 touches for the year — exciting numbers for SuperCoach owners.

Clayton Oliver (Murray Bushrangers)

TAC Cup average: 135 points from 16 games

Oliver is one of the most electrifying Morrish medal prospects of recent years. The gun midfielder shot up the predicted draft order after a thrilling conclusion to his TAC Cup campaign, finishing the season with an average of 24 disposals and a total of 20 goals from 16 games.

Darcy Parish (Vic Country, Geelong Falcons)
U18 average: 107 points from 4 games

Touted the best midfielder in this year’s draft class outside of the academy players, Parish is your classic accumulator of disposals — yet it’s his explosiveness that has seen him labelled a potential pick No. 3. A good ball user yet also quick and strong, Parish averaged 22 disposals in the national championships and 28 in the TAC Cup this season.

Rhys Mathieson (Vic Country, Geelong Falcons)

TAC Cup average: 122 points from 12 games

U18 average: 106 points from 6 games

Of all the midfielders in this year’s draft class, Mathieson is arguably the most AFL ready-made and could feature the earliest. A contested ball animal with clean hands, Mathieson averaged 20 disposals and five clearances per game in the national championships this season. He can also hit the scoreboard, averaging just under one goal per game in the TAC Cup in 2015.

Nick O’Kearney (Vic Metro, Calder Cannons)

TAC Cup average: 110 points from 13 games

U18 average: 114 points from 5 games

Look up ball magnet in the footy thesaurus and O’Kearney’s name appears as a synonym. But while his ball-winning ability is unquestionable — he averaged 26 touches per game at TAC Cup level and 22 during the carnival — it’s his kicking efficiency that could limit his SuperCoach scoring in 2016. If drafted, however, he’ll be taken late, meaning he’ll be a cheap buy.

MIDFIELDER-FORWARDS

Jacob Hopper (NSW-ACT, North Ballarat Rebels)

TAC Cup average: 131 points from 12 games

U18 average: 157 points from 3 games

An AFL star and captain in the making, Hopper should have an immediate scoring impact at the GWS Giants. He can do it all, ranking first for contested possessions and clearances during the national champs while also averaging one goal a game. Predicted, however, to be drafted within the first half a dozen selections, Hopper will be a pricey SuperCoach buy.

Jade Gresham (Northern Knights, Vic Metro)

TAC Cup average: 146 points from 13 games

U18 average: 134 points from 5 games

The man who likes to model his game on Brent Harvey, Gresham produced excellent, consistent numbers throughout the 2015 season at all levels. A goalkicking midfielder who’s great around stoppages, Gresham also had the best kicking efficiency percentage of all midfielders during this year’s under 18 carnival. He also averaged more than a goal per game at both TAC Cup and championships level.

Matthew Kennedy (NSW/ACT Rams)

TAC Cup average: 121 points from 5 games

Despite having an injury-interrupted season, the Giants academy prospect is one of the best on-ballers of this year’s draft class. Kennedy is the complete package who can win the ball in both contested and uncontested situations then push forward and hit the scoreboard. Still, however, a bit of a wildcard considering he played just six games (five TAC Cup and one Allies) at the top under 18 level.

Charlie Curnow (Geelong Falcons)

TAC Cup average: 110 points from 10 games

The younger brother of Carlton’s Ed Curnow should be a much more prolific SuperCoach scorer than his sibling — eventually. Curnow, who starred during the back-end of the TAC Cup season, can play anywhere on the ground — including in the ruck. However he’ll be taken very early in the draft, meaning his price will be high at the start of next season.

Ben Crocker (Vic Metro, Oakleigh Chargers)

TAC Cup average: 113 points from 14 matches

A bit of a smokey, Crocker is most suited to a small forward role that can venture into the midfield occasionally. He booted 23 goals from 14 TAC Cup matches, while he also booted the match-winning goal for Vic Metro against South Australia in the championships — and SuperCoach owners all know how valuable a goal like that is.

FORWARDS

Josh Schache (Vic Country, Murray Bushrangers)

TAC Cup average: 114 points from 10 games

U18 average: 157 points from 16 games

Not only does Brisbane pick Schache with its first selection, it likely picks Schache at full-forward for its Round 1 clash in 2016. The star key-position prospect is the best pure forward of this year’s draft class, highlighted by his incredible feats during this year’s under 18 carnival where he booted a record 24 goals from six games.

Hisham Kerbatieh (Calder Cannons)

TAC Cup average: 120 points from 14 games

While he hasn’t been given much attention by the footy media, Kerbatieh looms as a handy pick-up for a club in this year’s draft. An explosive small forward with freakish ability, Kerbatieh booted 24 goals from 14 TAC Cup games and had an impressive ranking points average despite racking up 20 disposals per game.

Blake Hardwick (Eastern Ranges)

TAC Cup average: 117 points from 16 games

When Hardwick is on a roll, few can stop him. He was the leading goalkicker in the TAC Cup this season, finishing with 56 goals from 16 games. That included goal hauls of 12 against the Bendigo Pioneers, 10 against the Geelong Falcons and eight against Western Jets.
 
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4. Midpricers: Under-priced or Under-performed
I've said it before but I will again, there is a lot of value to be had in the middle for SuperCoach 2016. But other areas of the ground also have some tempting mid-pricers. Here is a quick rundown of the players think could provide great value between 300-400k:

Andrew Walker (DEF) near 330k
Jaegar O'Meara (MID) near 360k
Brad Crouch (MID) near 360k
Scott Selwood (MID) near 300k
Matt Leuenberger (RUC) near 300k
Dale Thomas (FWD) near 300k

I am doing this without my list and by memory, so it's possible I forgot someone, but look at all that value! Could they average +100 in 2016?? I think at least two of them can, and I think that others can do enough to be keepers. But we also know Midpricers can cause havoc, like Dale Thomas of 2 years ago, so how do we weigh up these risks. I have my way, but I'd be keen to know what you all think.

My way involves having an exit plan, and setting low expectations for my Midpricers. They have a built in contingency by virtue of being mid-priced, so even if they underperform, you still imagine they will rise in price.
Example, I like Scott Selwood as a player. At 300k, I can afford to set him a reduced expectation of averaging 90, which would allow his price to increase to over 400k. If he averages 100, which is what I am hoping he will do, then he will remain in my team and become M9. I generally pick a value player at the start in most lines that I envisage become my bench/final field spot. My exit plan is 550k - if he exceeds all expectations I have a somehow reaches 550k, I will offload him to the best available ultra premium.

What do people think of that plan, and what do you think of the Midpricers available in 2016???
 
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4. Midpricers: Under-priced or Under-performed
I've said it before but I will again, there is a lot of value to be had in the middle for SuperCoach 2016. But other areas of the ground also have some tempting mid-pricers. Here is a quick rundown of the players think could provide great value between 300-400k:

Andrew Walker (DEF) near 330k
Jaegar O'Meara (MID) near 360k
Brad Crouch (MID) near 360k
Scott Selwood (MID) near 300k
Matt Leuenberger (RUC) near 300k
Dale Thomas (FWD) near 300k

I am doing this without my list and by memory, so it's possible I forgot someone, but look at all that value! Could they average +100 in 2016?? I think at least two of them can, and I think that others can do enough to be keepers. But we also know Midpricers can cause havoc, like Dale Thomas of 2 years ago, so how do we weigh up these risks. I have my way, but I'd be keen to know what you all think.

My way involves having an exit plan, and setting low expectations for my Midpricers. They have a built in contingency by virtue of being mid-priced, so even if they underperform, you still imagine they will rise in price.
Example, I like Scott Selwood as a player. At 300k, I can afford to set him a reduced expectation of averaging 90, which would allow his price to increase to over 400k. If he averages 100, which is what I am hoping he will do, then he will remain in my team and become M9. I generally pick a value player at the start in most lines that I envisage become my bench/final field spot. My exit plan is 550k - if he exceeds all expectations I have a somehow reaches 550k, I will offload him to the best available ultra premium.

What do people think of that plan, and what do you think of the Midpricers available in 2016???
I think it depends on strucutre in the midfield, I have tried a few draft teams and have players such as Crouch and Selwood at different times. I think it depends on how many potential keepers one wishes to have in the midfield. Most draft teams I have had either have 5 'keepers' without a Selwood or Crouch type or 4 'keepers' plus a Crouch/Selwood type at M5. I personally dont see how one could have 5 'keepers' plus Crouch/Selwood in the mid field without seriously comprimising other lines of the team.

Probaby Walker, Leuenberger and O'Meara (if up and going round 1) are most likely to find their way into my team.
 
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4. Midpricers: Under-priced or Under-performed
I've said it before but I will again, there is a lot of value to be had in the middle for SuperCoach 2016. But other areas of the ground also have some tempting mid-pricers. Here is a quick rundown of the players think could provide great value between 300-400k:

Andrew Walker (DEF) near 330k
Jaegar O'Meara (MID) near 360k
Brad Crouch (MID) near 360k
Scott Selwood (MID) near 300k
Matt Leuenberger (RUC) near 300k
Dale Thomas (FWD) near 300k

I am doing this without my list and by memory, so it's possible I forgot someone, but look at all that value! Could they average +100 in 2016?? I think at least two of them can, and I think that others can do enough to be keepers. But we also know Midpricers can cause havoc, like Dale Thomas of 2 years ago, so how do we weigh up these risks. I have my way, but I'd be keen to know what you all think.

My way involves having an exit plan, and setting low expectations for my Midpricers. They have a built in contingency by virtue of being mid-priced, so even if they underperform, you still imagine they will rise in price.
Example, I like Scott Selwood as a player. At 300k, I can afford to set him a reduced expectation of averaging 90, which would allow his price to increase to over 400k. If he averages 100, which is what I am hoping he will do, then he will remain in my team and become M9. I generally pick a value player at the start in most lines that I envisage become my bench/final field spot. My exit plan is 550k - if he exceeds all expectations I have a somehow reaches 550k, I will offload him to the best available ultra premium.

What do people think of that plan, and what do you think of the Midpricers available in 2016???
Thanks Jurn, had forgotten about Andrew Walker, went large a couple of years back in Carlton's first year under Malthouse and showed he had a big top end SC wise, could well be worth a punt this year in defence.
 
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Thanks Jurn, had forgotten about Andrew Walker, went large a couple of years back in Carlton's first year under Malthouse and showed he had a big top end SC wise, could well be worth a punt this year in defence.
He sholud play fwd and become fantasy irrelevant. Think he'd be the only player on the Carlton list to have kicked 50 goals in a season and nobody else looks capable of kicking goals.
 
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SuperFooty (AFL) ‏@superfooty 4m4 minutes ago

Collingwood young gun Matt Scharenberg reportedly suffers serious knee injury. Will require full knee reconstruction.
 
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SuperFooty (AFL) ‏@superfooty 4m4 minutes ago

Collingwood young gun Matt Scharenberg reportedly suffers serious knee injury. Will require full knee reconstruction.
His previous ACL was on his left knee

FOX FOOTY LIVE ‏@FOXFootyLive 6m6 minutes ago

Bad news for @CollingwoodFC's Matt Scharenberg, who requires a full reconstruction on his right knee. More at http://foxfooty.com.au soon!
 

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BREAKING - Promising Collingwood defender, MATTHEW SCHARENBERG will most likely miss yet another season as he injured himself today at training, and will require a knee reconstruction. The former #6 Pick from the 2013 Draft played Four games in the 2015 Season after recovering from his first knee reconstruction.
 
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SuperFooty (AFL) ‏@superfooty 4m4 minutes ago

Collingwood young gun Matt Scharenberg reportedly suffers serious knee injury. Will require full knee reconstruction.
Thats is terrible news for the young fella, that is for sure.

Hopefully he can make a full recovery again and get the best out of his potential. Some players simply have no luck at all :(

His previous ACL was on his left knee

FOX FOOTY LIVE ‏@FOXFootyLive 6m6 minutes ago

Bad news for @CollingwoodFC's Matt Scharenberg, who requires a full reconstruction on his right knee. More at http://foxfooty.com.au soon!
 

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GEELONG midfielder Mitch Duncan will have the start of his pre-season delayed by minor surgery near his Achilles.
The 24-year-old is expected to miss up to a month of training.
Geelong general manager of football Steven Hocking said Duncan returned early from his off-season break and the injury flared last week.
"Mitch will have surgery this week and it is expected the recovery period will be around three to four weeks," Hocking said.
 
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5. Sub Rule Changes: A vested interest
The substitute will be removed and the interchange cap reduced from 120 to 90 rotations per game in 2016.

First thing that this means; no more having a rookie picked only to have him named as the sub. If you're in, you're in.

Secondly, this rule effects SuperCoach more than DT because of the cap on available points. The scoring effectively changes from being divided between 42 players, to being divided between 44. The 3300 points that is allocated each game was distributed between the 42 active players in 2015 (not scoring while in green, or while in red) and meant the mean score would be about 78.57. The scoring in 2016 will now be between 44 players leaving mean score of about 75. Assuming the additional player from each side takes an mean share of the available points (scores 75), we could see a reduction of about 3.57 points across the other 42 players to make up the difference. This, plus the reduced rotations, will have an effect on how our household names get their points.

Thirdly, this has a lot of people looking for value in the heavily subbed played (e.g. Aaron Young, Billy Hartung, Jarryd Lyons). Looking for subbed players makes sense, but only if they still have a role in the team. I feel like Young, Hartung and Lyons all got a game because they can run and could bring leg speed to the final term. The abolished sub rule will change the role of the 22nd player. Obviously the reduced rotations will too, so maybe Hartung is still in option, but we could see more pure rucks, or utilities in teams.

What are your thoughts on how the rule changes will play out?
 
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