Opinion Todd Goldstein $695,100 - Trust Or Trap?

[IDIG]

From the pre-season thread...maybe we can discuss this dilemma with the man himself!

*shudders*

I'm the same, even after suffering without him last year, i'll find it hard to start with him at that price.

He faces Sandi in round 4 next year so should bottom out around round 7 where he'll then face stk, ess, carl. That should coincide with when the cows have made some coin to potentially make the quick jump from a Berger type before the fireworks begin. Similar to BB, that's probably where i'm at.

 

[Grant]

Goldstein will be a big decision next season for your initial squad.

I reckon in terms of averages:
<110 - Don't start with him as he will drop too much in price.
[110-120) - Debatable
120+ - Definitely start with him due to his superior scoring and just cop any minor price drops that happen.

I reckon he'll average in the debatable group just to make things more difficult. If I pick him he'd be the only player in my squad I was expecting to drop in price and average. After the Bellchambers disaster last season I might just cop the lost cash.

 

[Snowman]

I don't think theres any doubt he will be available cheaper at some stage throughout the year, but for me this isnt the deciding factor of whether or not to start him. For me its just a question of will Goldy be the highest scoring ruck again in 2016, if the answer is yes then lock him in and just pay the premium. Sure you may give up 100k but its also potentially 1 trade saved and history has taught me that pre planned upgrades sound good in theory but things dont always go to plan when the real thing starts and can often be much harder to achieve

 

[Jurn Stern]

I don't think theres any doubt he will be available cheaper at some stage throughout the year, but for me this isnt the deciding factor of whether or not to start him. For me its just a question of will Goldy be the highest scoring ruck again in 2016, if the answer is yes then lock him in and just pay the premium. Sure you may give up 100k but its also potentially 1 trade saved and history has taught me that pre planned upgrades sound good in theory but things dont always go to plan when the real thing starts and can often be much harder to achieve

I don't ever fully understand this 'trade saved' thing. Maybe it's because I trade like a mad man, but I figure if I save 150 by taking my initial R1, and future R2, then I can make someone else's Midpricer my premium, hence saving a trade elsewhere.

For me everything is just a game a weighted risk. I see the risk of starting Goldstein at 695k as a high risk, but starting Pendles at 625k as low. So I'll take the lower risk game, which has always paid off for me.

 

[Savvy90]

For me, Goldy is going to have to tear down the Pre-season comp with a 120-130 scoring ave before he'll get in my team. Only as a C/ Vc candidate for me. Just too many other holes in the team to plug otherwise.

We are in un-charted waters with a ruckman averaging 130. To score 130 once is a fluke for me until proven otherwise. I'll look at picking him up at the halfway point. Hopefully a lot cheaper than $700k.

 

[couchPOTATO]

For me, Goldy is going to have to tear down the Pre-season comp with a 120-130 scoring ave before he'll get in my team. Only as a C/ Vc candidate for me. Just too many other holes in the team to plug otherwise.

We are in un-charted waters with a ruckman averaging 130. To score 130 once is a fluke for me until proven otherwise. I'll look at picking him up at the halfway point. Hopefully a lot cheaper than $700k.

my advice is don't pay too much attention to Goldy's NAB numbers, if he runs around and gets 70 and 80 points in 2 games, playing reduced game time and barely raises a sweat so what??

fyi in 2015 goldy scored 198 in 2 nab challenge games, 30 points below his regular season average

 

[Prochard]

Goldstein will be top 3 ruck for sure, and is more durable than most ruckmen. Lock him in.

 

[BomberSam]

Goldstein will be top 3 ruck for sure, and is more durable than most ruckmen. Lock him in.

There's still a 90% chance that you won't gain anything on those that don't start him with an eye to getting him cheaper 7 rounds to mid-season in, because we will get him for less cash. You won't be saving a trade either because you will need to trade to get a premo on another line that we have covered because we didn't start Goldy.

With that being said, there are just so many factors and alternatives affecting every trade and every plan we make pre-season. Goldy could well be very hard to achieve with a rookie downgrade/midpricer upgrade combination, especially if early on he can replicate his form from last season.

I won't be starting Goldy.

 

[Darkie]

my advice is don't pay too much attention to Goldy's NAB numbers, if he runs around and gets 70 and 80 points in 2 games, playing reduced game time and barely raises a sweat so what??

fyi in 2015 goldy scored 198 in 2 nab challenge games, 30 points below his regular season average

I think this is good advice. I see NAB as essentially irrelevant (if not outright misleading) for fit, established players. It is useful for rookies (with an emphasis on minutes played, rather than just total score) and players under an injury cloud, in my view.

From memory the NAB is also much less contested every year, which I imagine leads to fewer hitouts.

 

[Darkie]

I don't ever fully understand this 'trade saved' thing. Maybe it's because I trade like a mad man, but I figure if I save 150 by taking my initial R1, and future R2, then I can make someone else's Midpricer my premium, hence saving a trade elsewhere.

For me everything is just a game a weighted risk. I see the risk of starting Goldstein at 695k as a high risk, but starting Pendles at 625k as low. So I'll take the lower risk game, which has always paid off for me.

The first point is an excellent one, and not something I had previously considered.

 

[BomberSam]

A question about starting the great man... if 20% of coaches are to start him and he bottoms out at 600-625k let's say 7-10 rounds in, and the other 80% jump on, how much did the Goldy-faithfuls lose on the rest of the competition?

 

[Darkie]

^^ I would do the calc as:

Cash saved / 5000 x rounds cash is deployed for = say 16 x 22 or 352

5000 is the rough figure the magic number tends towards.

You'd then need to adjust for the value of a trade (I use 150 on average, more early in the year and less later on - if anything, perhaps err higher than that). Call it -150 or thereabouts, net, for Goldy owners.

If I'm recalling correctly, you don't need to adjust for any scoring differential pre-trade because the non-Goldy owners have presumably deployed the loose change elsewhere - so it's just cash "lost" on Goldy converted to points, versus one trade.*

This ignores any captaincy benefits - you could add that on if you think Goldy adds meaningfully to your captaincy options, although if it's only for 7-10 weeks, that may not be too many points unless he goes massive. Arguably everyone will have Ablett, Rocky and others, so Goldy may not be the standout option, especially if the fixture is unfriendly.

Goldy would likely be averaging 120-125 until traded in, in your example, which I think some owners would consider a win ... but on these calcs, I think they've actually locked in a pretty big opportunity cost loss unless the captaincy benefit is large.

* I think you could argue that you should adjust for the points Goldy is "underperforming by" in rounds 1 through 7-10 as well, but this is reasonably small. It might be 3.8-8.8 x 7-10 in your example, given Goldy is priced at 128.8. This also ignores Jurn's point at post 24, although if Goldy is only falling around 80k, that's typically not enough to do the upgrade on another line.

Does anyone else have a view on this? It would be good to confirm/compare approaches.

 

[Juzzo]

I'm sure Rowsus will comment on this. ^^

 

[Darkie]

I'm sure Rowsus will comment on this. ^^

I am hoping he will

 

[sven_inc]

I think conceptually getting Goldy in at 625k makes perfect sense - hes dropped 70k, you've put that money somewhere else thats also been a success (they also havent dropped 70k). Others have wasted money, you've used it to gain a points advantage on the comp.

But in reality its still a really tough position. To pounce on Goldy at any time within the first 7-11 rounds requires you to have a Ruck you want to upgrade and the cash on hand to do it when you want.

This is where rucks are tricky IMO - unlike the mids, we cant have a rookie R2, wait until they get to $350k and upgrade them to a fallen Goldy.

Even if we did have a rookie ruck we would get demolished in the points stake v Goldy for 7-11 rounds (keeping in mind that you would have a premo on another line to o***et Goldy but unfortunately they would have a better rookie ie. mid).

A convenient midpricer a la Leuey is tough also. We pick him to do well so that he makes 100-150k for an easy upgrade. If it pays off and he averages 90+ and goes up then why trade him out? I think I posted earlier about the order youd trade blokes out and if a 90ave at round 7-11 is your lowest scorer you're probably winning SC... by a fair margin. You'd definitely need to upgrade but unless Goldy was 500k ish you probably couldnt justify it if you still have a DEF rookie knocking out 60s.

Worst case Leuey does a TBC and barely moves, maybe making it to 400k. This would be the best and easier way to get Goldy in quick as its a bad scorer whose worth enough so that a trade can get Goldy. But again the points lost would he horrible. Even if Goldy only averages 110.

The easiest way to get a fallen Goldy in quickly would be an injury trade. An already well priced R or F who has to go. Quick, simple and effective. But this requires bad luck and a wasted trade.

In my head its still a really tough choice as to which way to go as I think there are just as many tricky scenarios involved in starting him.

But i think that romantic notion of waiting until he drops in price is the same as Gaz every other year. Its really hard to get in and out cleanly and ahead of the pack.

Thats not to say that we have to pick him as there are 3 or 4 others who could realistically match his average and make him redundant, but its just something I always have in my head when looking at the highest priced blokes every year.

Thats why this game is great... we'll never know whether we need to start Goldy, can upgrade to him, or wont need him at all until its too late!

 

[chels]

Ricky Bobby made a comment consistent with a thought that won't go away when I think about rucks - and not just Goldie.

Was there a tweak to the scoring of SC by CD after around 10 rounds? A t-test or z-score comparison of ruck scores for say rounds 1-11 and 12-22 would be interesting (sorry to add to your burden Rowsus). It would be appreciated if only to put the irritating thought that is bugging me (and Ricky Bobby) to rest! A comparison of Goldie's scores alone does not answer the question as they may be an exogenous factor (e.g., a change in the composition of North's ruck rover unit) that explains the difference.

I also have a second question - how will CD score rucks in 2016? Will there be any tweaks at the start (or during the year)? I find a statement that Goldie will average (say) 115+ a little naive when we do not know the scoring system.

For mine any change (and yes there may not be a change in the scoring system) needs to be thought of as a relative change. Does it change Goldie's potential price movement more than it might change another ruck's potential? By virtue of his 2015 output Goldie may be more susceptible to a change in the scoring system (both positive and negative) than other rucks. Albeit some ruck(s) may have has more of a stat than Goldie amassed - although I am hard pressed to think of which stat!

 

[PC]

Anyone remember when a lot of us went to Docklands and watched the Bombers play the Roos and everyone had Goldy as VC and IDIG didn't and then Goldy scored over 200 and everyone celebrated except for IDIG who didn't have Goldy?

I do. It was a fun night

 

[Deeman1]

Anyone remember when a lot of us went to Docklands and watched the Bombers play the Roos and everyone had Goldy as VC and IDIG didn't and then Goldy scored over 200 and everyone celebrated except for IDIG who didn't have Goldy?

I do. It was a fun night

Haha, you are really not going to let him forget it, lol...

I bet IDIG can't wait for SC 2016 to really start so he can try to forget 2015 and going through the season Goldiless. I bet he does not make that err in judgement again.

 

[KLo30]

Anyone remember when a lot of us went to Docklands and watched the Bombers play the Roos and everyone had Goldy as VC and IDIG didn't and then Goldy scored over 200 and everyone celebrated except for IDIG who didn't have Goldy?

I do. It was a fun night

I certainly do, but there could be a few who don't given the largess of the night.

North supporter, Goldy VC and SCS mates (not necessarily in that order) equaled a great night.

Fox Footy must be due a replay soon. Should be good viewing. And remember IDIG "Pain is weakness leaving the body".

 

[Ricky Bobby]

T

Anyone remember when a lot of us went to Docklands and watched the Bombers play the Roos and everyone had Goldy as VC and IDIG didn't and then Goldy scored over 200 and everyone celebrated except for IDIG who didn't have Goldy?

I do. It was a fun night

LOL
This is one of the funniest things I've read in a long time