A question about starting the great man... if 20% of coaches are to start him and he bottoms out at 600-625k let's say 7-10 rounds in, and the other 80% jump on, how much did the Goldy-faithfuls lose on the rest of the competition?
^^ I would do the calc as:
Cash saved / 5000 x rounds cash is deployed for = say 16 x 22 or 352
5000 is the rough figure the magic number tends towards.
You'd then need to adjust for the value of a trade (I use 150 on average, more early in the year and less later on - if anything, perhaps err higher than that). Call it -150 or thereabouts, net, for Goldy owners.
If I'm recalling correctly, you don't need to adjust for any scoring differential pre-trade because the non-Goldy owners have presumably deployed the loose change elsewhere - so it's just cash "lost" on Goldy converted to points, versus one trade.*
This ignores any captaincy benefits - you could add that on if you think Goldy adds meaningfully to your captaincy options, although if it's only for 7-10 weeks, that may not be too many points unless he goes massive. Arguably everyone will have Ablett, Rocky and others, so Goldy may not be the standout option, especially if the fixture is unfriendly.
Goldy would likely be averaging 120-125 until traded in, in your example, which I think some owners would consider a win ... but on these calcs, I think they've actually locked in a pretty big opportunity cost loss unless the captaincy benefit is large.
* I think you could argue that you should adjust for the points Goldy is "underperforming by" in rounds 1 through 7-10 as well, but this is reasonably small. It might be 3.8-8.8 x 7-10 in your example, given Goldy is priced at 128.8. This also ignores Jurn's point at post 24, although if Goldy is only falling around 80k, that's typically not enough to do the upgrade on another line.
Does anyone else have a view on this? It would be good to confirm/compare approaches.
I'm sure Rowsus will comment on this. ^^
I am hoping he will
I think conceptually getting Goldy in at 625k makes perfect sense - hes dropped 70k, you've put that money somewhere else thats also been a success (they also havent dropped 70k). Others have wasted money, you've used it to gain a points advantage on the comp.
But in reality its still a really tough position. To pounce on Goldy at any time within the first 7-11 rounds requires you to have a Ruck you want to upgrade and the cash on hand to do it when you want.
This is where rucks are tricky IMO - unlike the mids, we cant have a rookie R2, wait until they get to $350k and upgrade them to a fallen Goldy.
Even if we did have a rookie ruck we would get demolished in the points stake v Goldy for 7-11 rounds (keeping in mind that you would have a premo on another line to o***et Goldy but unfortunately they would have a better rookie ie. mid).
A convenient midpricer a la Leuey is tough also. We pick him to do well so that he makes 100-150k for an easy upgrade. If it pays off and he averages 90+ and goes up then why trade him out? I think I posted earlier about the order youd trade blokes out and if a 90ave at round 7-11 is your lowest scorer you're probably winning SC... by a fair margin. You'd definitely need to upgrade but unless Goldy was 500k ish you probably couldnt justify it if you still have a DEF rookie knocking out 60s.
Worst case Leuey does a TBC and barely moves, maybe making it to 400k. This would be the best and easier way to get Goldy in quick as its a bad scorer whose worth enough so that a trade can get Goldy. But again the points lost would he horrible. Even if Goldy only averages 110.
The easiest way to get a fallen Goldy in quickly would be an injury trade. An already well priced R or F who has to go. Quick, simple and effective. But this requires bad luck and a wasted trade.
In my head its still a really tough choice as to which way to go as I think there are just as many tricky scenarios involved in starting him.
But i think that romantic notion of waiting until he drops in price is the same as Gaz every other year. Its really hard to get in and out cleanly and ahead of the pack.
Thats not to say that we have to pick him as there are 3 or 4 others who could realistically match his average and make him redundant, but its just something I always have in my head when looking at the highest priced blokes every year.
Thats why this game is great... we'll never know whether we need to start Goldy, can upgrade to him, or wont need him at all until its too late!
There are so many "ifs and buts" involved in this, that trying to reduce it down to one scenario/equation is nearly pointless. But here is one attempt anyway.
Coach A starts Goldy ($695,100) and Rookie Xyz (position unknown) ($117,300) - total $812,400
Goldy scores 121 in each of the first 9 Rounds, and after Round 9 his price has fallen to $622,000
Rookie Xyz plays 6 of the first 9 games, and has scored 65 in each of those games. His price is now $265,000 - total $887,000
Coach A picked his Rookies well, and when Xyz missed in rounds 5, 6 and 8 he has Rookie Abc take his place on the field, and coincidently he scored 65 in those 3 games as well. Goldy has scored 121 x 9 = 1,089, and the Rookie spot has scored 9 x 65 = 585, total 1,674 points. Rookie Xyz has grown $147,700 in value, and is well on the way to being milked, possibly in another 3 games, when he has hit $300k.
Coach B starts Leuey ($309,400) and Barlow ($503,200), and is hoping Barlow will score at Forward Keeper level (95+), and that he can upgrade Leuey to Goldy after Round 9. Though the real calculations are WAY more complicated than what follows, what does Leuey have to achieve, if Barlow plays all 9 games and scores 95 in each of them, for Coach A and Coach B to be considered roughly level after Round 9?
Coach A is looking at a "one up, one down trade" with Xyz being
half of that equation with another similar Rookie Jkl. Coach B also has Rookie Jkl in his team, so those two cancel each other out, and they both have Rookie Qrs.
Barlow has scored 95 x 9 = 855 points for coach B, so to be level on points Leuey needs to score 819. That's an average of 91/game, and let's assume for argument's sake that Leuey has played all 9 games (probably wishful thinking!). Leueys price has now risen to $439,000 (using the same set of MN's used to calculate Goldy and the Rookies price changes). Barlow is now worth $480,000 so Coach B has also scored 1,674 from his 2 players, and their total worth is $919,000. which is $32,000 more than Coach A's Goldy and Rookie xyz are worth. Coach B needs $183,000 to turn Leuey into Goldy. We have seen that Rookie Xyz has increased $147,700, so let's assume Rookie Jkl has tracked the same, and is now worth $147,700 more than his opening price.
Coach B is forced to either cull a better/fatter cow than Jkl to make the upgrade, or be sitting on some sort of cash reserve we had not previously assumed. We could assume they were both sitting there with $40k in the bank, and make Coach B's job easy! If not, Coach B has now culled Rookie Qrs a little early to make his trade. Coach B has a 3 week period, while he waits for Coach A to cull Xyz and Jkl in his one up, one down upgrade. In those 3 weeks both A and B have Goldy, Coach A has Qrs and Xyz scoring at 75 and 65, and Coach B has Barlow and Jkl scoring 95 and 65. Coach B gains 60 points in those 3 weeks, but has lost 3 weeks growth on Qrs, which has netted Coach A an extra $45,000 for his upgrade. When Coach A makes his upgrade, he will in theory have that player for 10 weeks, and needs to use that $45,000 better player to bridge that 60 point gap. In theory, the $45,000 netts him 9/game, so he is 30 points better off than coach B.
Ok, so many assumptions made!
That Coach A used his $45,000 to full effect, and found a 9/game play better than Barlow.
That Leuey played all 9 games and averaged 91, Barlow 9 games at 95, Goldy was locked in at 121 to to go down to price assumed at the start. That the rookies played X games and scored Y points. And last, but by no means least, my guesses/calculations on the MN are relatively close! You can see, if we change anyone of those assumptions just a little bit, the whole scenario changes.
One of the key observations about the above scenario is, that Coach B obviously hoped for more than 95 from Barlow, and who knows, in reality he might go 100-105, and Coach B also hoped/assumed Goldy would score at less than 121/game, and be easier to reach than he turned out to be in this scenario. In this scenario Coach A won by 30 points, but it wouldn't take drastic changes to put Coach B 30 points in front! For example, BomberSam originally asked if Goldy was $600-625k. At $600k Goldy has only scored at 117. his points to Round 9 have dropped by 36, and Coach B spends $25k less to get Goldy in, so now Coach A only has $20k to try and bridge a 96 point gap! Nearly impossible! That's how fragile scenarios/equations like this become!
In trying to set some sort of cut off point, I will say, if you believe Goldy will be available for under $580k by Round 9, start without him. That equates to a 113 average, but don't forget, averages don't determine prices, they just determine where prices are heading! One bad score can get him there with a 115-118 average! If you think his price will bottom out between $580k and $620k, look at who the loose change is getting you. If you think he will never drop much, if at all, below $620k, then you are wasting valuable planning time looking at teams without Goldy in them!
