Opinion Player X vs Player Y
- Thread starter yakka
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Thanks gents - I'm inclined to agree with much of this.
Weighing up the injury risks and Tippett's cover value is a bit tricky, but this is what I've come up with. It assumes both play 18 (about right for both, maybe slightly generous to Buddy given he has recently had mental health issues as well, and a fraction harsh on Tippett given he is presumably starting the year fit). I've assumed both meet their 2015 averages as well:
Buddy v Tippett
Assume 18 games @ 2015 average for each
Buddy 18 @ 87.1
F7-8 covers Buddy 4 games @ 65
Loose change buys 2.5/game x 20 games played
1878 points total (average c. 85)
Tippett 18 @ 89.6
F7-8 covers Tippett 4 games @ 65
Rucks miss 5 games combined, Tippett plays c. 80% of games and therefore covers only 4 of those
F7-8 covers R1/2 4 games @ 65
2133 points total (average c. 97)
Of course, either could beat (or miss) their 2015 average - although I think Buddy needs to improve by c. 12 points relative to Tippett just to match him for points scored on a PIT basis.
I think a side with Tippett in it is also somewhat less likely to use trades (reflecting better ruck cover, and Buddy's higher likelihood of a season-ending issue).
This is swaying me in favour of Tippett.
Weighing up the injury risks and Tippett's cover value is a bit tricky, but this is what I've come up with. It assumes both play 18 (about right for both, maybe slightly generous to Buddy given he has recently had mental health issues as well, and a fraction harsh on Tippett given he is presumably starting the year fit). I've assumed both meet their 2015 averages as well:
Buddy v Tippett
Assume 18 games @ 2015 average for each
Buddy 18 @ 87.1
F7-8 covers Buddy 4 games @ 65
Loose change buys 2.5/game x 20 games played
1878 points total (average c. 85)
Tippett 18 @ 89.6
F7-8 covers Tippett 4 games @ 65
Rucks miss 5 games combined, Tippett plays c. 80% of games and therefore covers only 4 of those
F7-8 covers R1/2 4 games @ 65
2133 points total (average c. 97)
Of course, either could beat (or miss) their 2015 average - although I think Buddy needs to improve by c. 12 points relative to Tippett just to match him for points scored on a PIT basis.
I think a side with Tippett in it is also somewhat less likely to use trades (reflecting better ruck cover, and Buddy's higher likelihood of a season-ending issue).
This is swaying me in favour of Tippett.
Gee that's quite a tough one! I think both Greene and Smith are not really worth selecting because I think neither will make the top 6-10 in their respective positions. Out of the two though, I think Greene has a better chance of hitting a reasonable average. At worst he could be traded out around the Byes.
Crows have a tough draw to start so I think Smith will 'trap' his owners again. (Reference Beg2Differ's 'Maddinson Trap' comment from the BBL fantasy competition). Much like Maddinson, Smith will have one fantastic score to show his potential followed by a run of garbage scores to show why he's priced at what he is. Smith will most likely put in one great NAB score to suck everyone in again (I hope he does!).
Out of Montagna and Boyd, Boyd is the better pick due to his position. If he can average 100+ in the defence, that's much more valuable than a 100+ in the forwards.
So Boyd + Greene for me!
Crows have a tough draw to start so I think Smith will 'trap' his owners again. (Reference Beg2Differ's 'Maddinson Trap' comment from the BBL fantasy competition). Much like Maddinson, Smith will have one fantastic score to show his potential followed by a run of garbage scores to show why he's priced at what he is. Smith will most likely put in one great NAB score to suck everyone in again (I hope he does!).
Out of Montagna and Boyd, Boyd is the better pick due to his position. If he can average 100+ in the defence, that's much more valuable than a 100+ in the forwards.
So Boyd + Greene for me!
Most definitely Buddy + F5 rookie. Buddy worth the risk I think. Could average 110 in his first 7 rounds (With 200 in Round 7 against M.Brown/Hartley 
)
While I think Bird won't be the worst pick, Simpkin/Lyons probably just not worth it. I don't think Simpkin will get consistent games over listed Dons. I can see Simpkin playing in Round 1, but down the track if there's a listed player who's been performing well in the VFL and Simpkin competing for a spot, the listed player would get preference. Just not worth the headache.
I am a bit put off by Lyons because of his tough draw. He's one to watch in the NAB. Talented player!
)While I think Bird won't be the worst pick, Simpkin/Lyons probably just not worth it. I don't think Simpkin will get consistent games over listed Dons. I can see Simpkin playing in Round 1, but down the track if there's a listed player who's been performing well in the VFL and Simpkin competing for a spot, the listed player would get preference. Just not worth the headache.
I am a bit put off by Lyons because of his tough draw. He's one to watch in the NAB. Talented player!
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At the moment I am going with Dahlhuas.
Had Bennell last year, whilst he was super when on the park, was injured/in trouble too often and it hurt me badly.
Also has had an interrupted preseason so might be a little slower getting off the mark this year, plus if he is an upgrade target, we get a look at his new role at the Dockers.
Last year I constantly watched Dahlhaus rack up the SC points against my side.
Had Bennell last year, whilst he was super when on the park, was injured/in trouble too often and it hurt me badly.
Also has had an interrupted preseason so might be a little slower getting off the mark this year, plus if he is an upgrade target, we get a look at his new role at the Dockers.
Last year I constantly watched Dahlhaus rack up the SC points against my side.
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I'm not so sure, would need to talk to someone with a better knowledge of the Bulldogs setups etc. And see what they do in the NAB Challenge.
One reason why that potential issue is not so much of a worry for me atm is that it seemed like Dahlhaus could rack up the points even when he wasn't a prominent figure in the game. I remember watching numerous games, where I was barracking for The Bont, and opponents had Dahlhaus and he somehow could just keep racking up the points when it seemed he wasn't really in the game compared to a dominant Bont in most scenarios. It was frustrating, so hopefully he racks them up again this year for my side.
One reason why that potential issue is not so much of a worry for me atm is that it seemed like Dahlhaus could rack up the points even when he wasn't a prominent figure in the game. I remember watching numerous games, where I was barracking for The Bont, and opponents had Dahlhaus and he somehow could just keep racking up the points when it seemed he wasn't really in the game compared to a dominant Bont in most scenarios. It was frustrating, so hopefully he racks them up again this year for my side.
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I think if Fyfe is fit, you can get a much higher average out of him and Lobbe. Lobbe could go back to around 90-95 without Ryder, while Fyfe should stay above 120, totaling at 210-215.
I would predict 100-105 out of both NicNat and Wines, with a lower total of 200-210. Wines isn't a super premium yet, and NicNat is also injury prone.
However, if Fyfe still has lingering doubts, the other combo might be preferable, as Wines will go up in price, while Fyfe will go down.
I would predict 100-105 out of both NicNat and Wines, with a lower total of 200-210. Wines isn't a super premium yet, and NicNat is also injury prone.
However, if Fyfe still has lingering doubts, the other combo might be preferable, as Wines will go up in price, while Fyfe will go down.