Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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Do you think my club Carlton or your club Melbourne will win a premiership in the next 50 years?

I doubt it. People who think I'm overly pessimistic should consider when Melbourne won their last flag and how Carlton have performed in the draft era. Also with 18 teams in the comp it is even harder to win a flag.
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus,

I'm glad you had a great time on your return back down under, it was a pitty I was not able to make it to the catch-up, but sounds like all involved had a ripping time!

I'm after some of your advice once again. 3 trades left and $69,000 in Bank. My season hit a bid of a snag last week, in my bit to break into the top 1000, droping from 1300 -> 1900, so I feel it is now make or break time.

Early in the week, following the news of Dayne's injury, I was set on Wallis -> Kelly/Malcheski and Beams -> GAJ, leaving 1 trade and around $70,000 in bank.

I guess, the feeling that I had is that the word injury and Beams has not been a good association in the past, so may be best to deal with him at his highest value and this is the only way I can see getting GAJ into my team.

I could also just do the Wallis -> Kelly/Malcheski for D7 and sit on the cash to deal with Beams when and if he is pulled in for surgery.

Would love too hear your thougnts on my otions?

Thanks in advance!
Hey Deeman1,
I guess it all comes down to two things.
How committed are you to getting Ablett?
How much faith do you have in Beams?
You are probably better off waiting a week, unless you are in a close match up you really need to win. That way you might have more Beams info to work with.
If you can't wait, and you have no faith in Beams, it is Wallis/Beams out.
If you can't wait, and you think Beams will struggle through, it is Wallis/Bont out.
As to my opinion, I never thought Beams would be a 22 game player this season. I would probably wait for more info, and if I was in a position where I can't wait, then I'd go Wallis/Beams out.
 

Rowsus

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Rowan,

It was an absolute pleasure to be able to meet and spend some time with you, pity we couldn't snag a win on the horses. Hope the trip was everything you had hoped for!

I've decided to go ALL IN this week to get Ablett into my team. I did consider bringing in Bartel to my forward and moving Higgins back and knocking B Smith back to D7, but this move would jeopardise putting Ablett out of reach. In the end, the decision was based on 'getting the best 22' as opposed to 'getting premium bench cover'. I have 4 trades prior trading and will be moving Wallis and Krakouer out of my team for Ablett and H Goddard.

If you have some time, can you cast your eyes over my team and see whether there are any other options?
Thanh,
it was great to meet up with you, too. Next time we'll find a winner at the races too!
I've had a good study of your options, and I think Wallis/Krak is the best option.
I agree with your approach. While it is good and important to have decent bench coverage, best 22 is the first priority.
 

Rowsus

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Rowsus,

Thanks again for your feedback. I had a question about the Captaincy Loophole in that particular thread, but didn't get an answer.

For this week's games, at this stage, the only non-player I have in my team (aside from Read, who I can't use for the loophole this week, as he plays in the 2nd game, and I don't have any decent HAW / CARL players for VC (Docherty?)) is Kavanagh on my MID bench. Is it worth using him as my loophole, meaning that I won't be able to use any genuine EMG coverage for my MID line? Would hate to risk the prospect of a donut at this stage of the season. Or do I simply trust in Ablett / Goldstein for the C?

Thoughts?
TBO,
I think you just go through the Ablett VC process.
You then look at his score, and whether Fyfe is playing, and weigh up the pros and cons.
If Ablett goes large, damn the "sunday torpedoes", and risk locking him in.
 

Rowsus

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Do you think my club Carlton or your club Melbourne will win a premiership in the next 50 years?

I doubt it. People who think I'm overly pessimistic should consider when Melbourne won their last flag and how Carlton have performed in the draft era. Also with 18 teams in the comp it is even harder to win a flag.
Carlton maybe, Melbourne less likely.
Salary caps only even the competition so much. Off field spending, favourable draws, even favourable scheduling have a lot to do with it too. Just like in American sport, the big will get bigger, and the small will need to rely on the small two or three season streak, where with luck, they will be competitive in September.
 
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Hey Deeman1,
I guess it all comes down to two things.
How committed are you to getting Ablett?
How much faith do you have in Beams?
You are probably better off waiting a week, unless you are in a close match up you really need to win. That way you might have more Beams info to work with.
If you can't wait, and you have no faith in Beams, it is Wallis/Beams out.
If you can't wait, and you think Beams will struggle through, it is Wallis/Bont out.
As to my opinion, I never thought Beams would be a 22 game player this season. I would probably wait for more info, and if I was in a position where I can't wait, then I'd go Wallis/Beams out.
Thanks for your time in providing a response Rowsus.

Yeah I agree and as the week has gone on, I have reached the conclusion that no trades, might be the best option in the long term.

I would love to be able to get GAJ in, but with the low number of trades left, I have somewhat backed myself into a corner.

Plus it is not only Beams that has ?'s about him, with Fyfe somewhat iffy aswell.

Will hold for now a re-assess in a couple of weeks, when more information is to hand.

Once again, thanks for your advise.
 

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Thanh,
it was great to meet up with you, too. Next time we'll find a winner at the races too!
I've had a good study of your options, and I think Wallis/Krak is the best option.
I agree with your approach. While it is good and important to have decent bench coverage, best 22 is the first priority.
Dodged a bullet there...

With uncertainty surrounding Beams, decided to by-pass Ablett and save a trade. Only did the Wallis -> Bartel trade and keeping Krakouer meant Lambert was a more than adequate replacement for Beams, otherwise would have had to do the Beams trade as well. Good to finally get a 50/50 call right this season.

I recalled you writing that we'd would see unprecedented carnage this year which is exactly what we're seeing right at this moment. Ironically, the Rucks, which are usually prone to such carnage, have survived relatively unscathed...SO FAR!
 
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Hey mate, how's it going
Just wondering on your thoughts on who to replace Beams
Sloane
Lewis
Sidey
Pridda
Hanners
Parker
Open to other suggestions
(Can't afford Danger)
Thanks mate
 
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Hey Rowsus;

I bet you'll be inundated by the lament of GAJ owners, so I'm going to set it off by presenting my team and a couple of options I have thought up.

Firstly, if we're going by performance I think the best 2 Midfielders I don't have are Priddis and Dangerfield. I chose Priddis because he's about $60k cheaper, and I have left Beams out because of his injury status. Of course, I could go for Sloane, Selwood, Sidebottom or Lewis, or even Deledio, Zorko or Shaw, but I think those picks are bit too speculative. Unless can persuade me otherwise, I think Priddis is the best option for a straight swap.

In the first trade, I'm considering a double trade with Ablett-Priddis and Cripps-Anyone, with the budget stated. The second trade has A. Pearce (Simply because he's the only bench player aside from Cripps without DPP) - Goddard and Ablett-Anyone. Which double trade do you think is better.

And if both play (and I choose to keep Cripps) should I loophole Cripps or Saad on Saturday night (With Krak/Steele as backup).
 
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Hey Rowsus,
Havent ask your advice for a while nows until nows
With Fyfe being out I have Steele as cover and if Beams is out I have now other cover in Amon and Anderson
If anything I plan to take out Beams cause he is more of the long injury term, I would want to go someone POD ish thats under 10% ownership and would like to ask if you have any suggestion?
I sorta narrowed it down to J Macrae & S Thompson that caught my eye but if you have any other good POD picks pls I'll have an open mind
thanks in advance
 

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Rowsus - seems like if you just did a best midfielder for remainder of season response, would almost cover every question now!

My weekly thought process:

Easy decision - Ablett OUT, Priddis IN (Could argue Danger, but he comes in to the next equation, don't want to crows mids)

Hard decision - Stretch OUT, Sloane IN (leaving Steele cover and Forward link)
OR Steele OUT, Dangerfield IN (Leaving Stretch/Glenn/Maynard potential cover if one gets a game and No forward link)

Starting 22 most likely better with Priddis and Danger over Priddis and Sloane, but is it worth the risk with little cover and no forward link.

I am leaning towards Priddis and Sloane, thinking Danger may slow down. Also gives me Steele as cover in mids and link up forward. (for Fyfe this week, Swan goes to Mids and Steele/Lambert are the choice up forward)
 
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Rowsus

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It is with regrets that I must close this thread for the time being.
In the last month I haven't been able to give it the time it deserves and needs.
I'd like to thank you all for your support, and kind words. I've actually enjoyed it for the most part, especially the questions that required some statistical research and analysis.
If time permits, I will hopefully re-start the thread in the pre-season.
My apologies to those in the last month, that haven't received the time or answers they deserve.
5172 posts, and over 325,000 views in the last 18 months isn't a bad run! :)
 
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Rowsus

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Well, it's been closed for 6 months today.

It might be time to re-open for business again.


;) I'll take the lock off shortly!


Please keep in mind.
No "Rate My Team" or "X vs Y" questions,

As usual, questions that pique my interest will get long, well researched answers, where as the other questions will get the best answer I can give, with the time that I have.
 

THCLT

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Time to burn those midnight candles and build on those 5,173 posts and 325k views!

Glad that you're open for business again...:)
 

Rowsus

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They say that everything old is new again!
Looking at the opening 2 posts of this thread from the pre-season of 2014, you could be forgiven for thinking it referred to 2016!
A quick browse will show you what I mean, rather than me reproducing them here.

In a nutshell, we had 6 players added to the Def list in 2014, that in 2013 couldn't be chosen as Defs.
McVeigh, Bartell and Walker lead the Def prices at $572,500 and we also had Mitchell S, Hodge, and Simpson K added in for good measure.
Some Coaches on the site were bemoaning that the skill was being removed from the game, and that nearly every team would end up with these six as their final Def line, and they'd all be top 8-10 Defs, for sure! I warned this was trap thinking, and unlikely to happen, on both accounts.

So how does history show that they went?


It's interesting to look back, isn't it? Only three of the six turned out to be good picks! Interestingly enough, Bartel and McVeigh were two of those, and here they again, two years later!
The other thing I find interesting is their lowest available trade in price prior to Round 14. The successful ones never dipped more than $50k! Keep in mind, a player will drop 10% roughly, just by scoring at last seasons average. The others dipped a bit more, but that might have just been enough to trap some unsuspecting coaches.

So what lesson do we take from this for 2016?
The supposed new riches in the Def line won't all turn out to be smart picks.
The ones that do turn out to be smart picks probably won't drop that much in price! (but they will drop 8-12%, at some stage!)
 

Rowsus

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Time to burn those midnight candles and build on those 5,173 posts and 325k views!

Glad that you're open for business again...:)
Heyyyy..... how did you do that? I didn't take the lock off yet! :p
 
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Hey Rowsus

Thanks for doing this Q & A again.

You being a Melbourne man I am really keen on your thoughts on Gawn.

His season last year reminded me of Martins year in 2014 and to a lesser extent Sandi and Cox in their season prior to consistent breakout.

I know Gawn has not played a full season to date but he has just turned 25 and is clearly the Dees number 1 ruck.

From all reports he is flying preseason and has received a training award from Roos preseason which speaks volumes in my book.

Every year we see the rucks change and a new name bob up.

What is your opinion of Gawn being a top 3 ruck this season (I'm all over him like a rash)?
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus

Thanks for doing this Q & A again.

You being a Melbourne man I am really keen on your thoughts on Gawn.

His season last year reminded me of Martins year in 2014 and to a lesser extent Sandi and Cox in their season prior to consistent breakout.

I know Gawn has not played a full season to date but he has just turned 25 and is clearly the Dees number 1 ruck.

From all reports he is flying preseason and has received a training award from Roos preseason which speaks volumes in my book.

Every year we see the rucks change and a new name bob up.

What is your opinion of Gawn being a top 3 ruck this season (I'm all over him like a rash)?
Hey _Slip_,
I think he is some chance to be top 3 in 2016, but I think the numbers make him a poor risk.
He's priced at $550,800, and usually that amount of money is only used on safe/safer picks than he looks.
His game counts (13, 9, 13, 4) do look bad, but that is nearly as much due to his inability to break into the team, as it is to injury.
He seemed to tire towards the end of last season, which worries me a bit. That was most notably in Rnds 19, 20, and 21. It wasn't just bad SC scores, he looked phsically tired during the games. I don't know of any injury he carried there, but he did look better in rnds 22 and 23.
His 3 biggest scores were against St Kilda, Essendon and Geelong, to give me confidence, I would have liked to have seen him post a 110+ against at least one decent Ruck.

There's no doubt he can be a beast, but until evidence to the contrary, it appears that is only against inferior opposition, as far as Rucks go. He was the first VFL/AFL Ruck to post 80 hitouts in a game, but that was against a no name player from Ballarat. He's a punt, and when you take a punt, you want something going in your favour. It seems you are paying top dollar for something that has slightly more downside (potential low game count, drop in score output), than upside (how much can he improve his average over 18/19+ games, if he manages to play that many?). It's a punt that could work, but given the size of the risk, I don't think the reward is big enough to do it.
 
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