Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[_Slip_]

Hey _Slip_,
I think he is some chance to be top 3 in 2016, but I think the numbers make him a poor risk.
He's priced at $550,800, and usually that amount of money is only used on safe/safer picks than he looks.
His game counts (13, 9, 13, 4) do look bad, but that is nearly as much due to his inability to break into the team, as it is to injury.
He seemed to tire towards the end of last season, which worries me a bit. That was most notably in Rnds 19, 20, and 21. It wasn't just bad SC scores, he looked phsically tired during the games. I don't know of any injury he carried there, but he did look better in rnds 22 and 23.
His 3 biggest scores were against St Kilda, Essendon and Geelong, to give me confidence, I would have liked to have seen him post a 110+ against at least one decent Ruck.

There's no doubt he can be a beast, but until evidence to the contrary, it appears that is only against inferior opposition, as far as Rucks go. He was the first VFL/AFL Ruck to post 80 hitouts in a game, but that was against a no name player from Ballarat. He's a punt, and when you take a punt, you want something going in your favour. It seems you are paying top dollar for something that has slightly more downside (potential low game count, drop in score output), than upside (how much can he improve his average over 18/19+ games, if he manages to play that many?). It's a punt that could work, but given the size of the risk, I don't think the reward is big enough to do it.

Thanks for the feedback Rowsus.

Dees only play Goldy, Martin, Jacobs, NN, Sandi and Mummy once in 2016.

He scored 105 against Martin, 106 against Sandi and 101 against Mummy last year.

I agree he is a big risk but if he remains injury free I am starting him R2. Could be the biggest bone head or genius decision of the season.

Dees have Ess, Pies, Tigers, Saints, Suns and Dogs in 6 out of their first 8 games. Worst case scenario is a corrective trade and lose some cash but "Balls to the Wall" this year

Thanks for your input. Much appreciated Rowsus.

 

[Bomber18]

Hey Rowsus! Good to see that you're open again after your great analysis of the players in 2015.

My question is related to concerns I have with Libba returning from ACL.

Are there any stats you could produce regarding players returning from ACLs or other leg injuries (ie: Barlow's broken leg) compared to their original years.
I'm not sure whether there is a list of players who had suffered ACL injuries but off the top of my head I know Suckling, Taylor Walker, Clay Beams, Malceski, Colyer, Dempsey, Winderlich are some who have had ACL injuries.

Thanks for your efforts

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus! Good to see that you're open again after your great analysis of the players in 2015.

My question is related to concerns I have with Libba returning from ACL.

Are there any stats you could produce regarding players returning from ACLs or other leg injuries (ie: Barlow's broken leg) compared to their original years.
I'm not sure whether there is a list of players who had suffered ACL injuries but off the top of my head I know Suckling, Taylor Walker, Clay Beams, Malceski, Colyer, Dempsey, Winderlich are some who have had ACL injuries.

Thanks for your efforts

I'm not aware of a collective list anywhere with ACL or similar injuries. I don't think it is worthwhile seeing how non-SC relevant players performed after coming back, as it is much easier to return to a lower base, than a higher one.
Suckling went: 93, 81 - KNEE - 77, 73
Malceski went: 34, 67, 101 - KNEE Pre-season + 9/66, 52, 96 - KNEE Pre-season + 12/68, 76, 91, 105, 71
Walker T went: 49, 62, 63, 100 - 5/69 Knee - 80, 83
Gray R went: 90 - 2/71 KNEE - 82, 111, 110
Z Smith is an example of it being easier to return to a lower level
Smith Z went: 78, 70 - 8/77 KNEE - 76, 79

In general, I would err on the conservative side, and say they need at least one season back to get going again.

 

[Bomber18]

I'm not aware of a collective list anywhere with ACL or similar injuries. I don't think it is worthwhile seeing how non-SC relevant players performed after coming back, as it is much easier to return to a lower base, than a higher one.
Suckling went: 93, 81 - KNEE - 77, 73
Malceski went: 34, 67, 101 - KNEE Pre-season + 9/66, 52, 96 - KNEE Pre-season + 12/68, 76, 91, 105, 71
Walker T went: 49, 62, 63, 100 - 5/69 Knee - 80, 83
Gray R went: 90 - 2/71 KNEE - 82, 111, 110
Z Smith is an example of it being easier to return to a lower level
Smith Z went: 78, 70 - 8/77 - 76, 79

In general, I would err on the conservative side, and say they need at least one season back to get going again.

Thanks for your research! I had forgotten about Gray! How could I forgot how injury prone he once was!

I did find a list after some searching of players who had done ACLs (although it includes rugby players too).
http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/injury-knee-acl-injury.php

Another notable one is Ball, who went 89 - 97 - 3/63 KNEE - 90 - 73 and of course Rich last year who went 90 - 86 - 3/80 KNEE - 80

I don't think any established 105+ scorer has even done an ACL (I suppose Malceski is the closest). It does increase my doubts whether Libba can average 100+ when no one has ever done it before after an ACL. It's also food for thought re: Rich as historically it seems players second season after an ACL is generally a lot better.

Although not an ACL Barlow went 116/13 LEG - 83/9 - 95 - 110 - 112 - 93, so it took him 1.5 seasons to get back to a reasonable average and 2 to hit a premium average again.

 

[jaca]

So what lesson do we take from this for 2016?
The supposed new riches in the Def line won't all turn out to be smart picks.
The ones that do turn out to be smart picks probably won't drop that much in price! (but they will drop 8-12%, at some stage!)

A couple of questions for interpretation purposes: Are you saying that Shaw will probably only drop to 540k or so, and if he falls more he's likely not so good a pick-up anyway?

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Thanks for your research! I had forgotten about Gray! How could I forgot how injury prone he once was!

I did find a list after some searching of players who had done ACLs (although it includes rugby players too).
http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/injury-knee-acl-injury.php

Another notable one is Ball, who went 89 - 97 - 3/63 KNEE - 90 - 73 and of course Rich last year who went 90 - 86 - 3/80 KNEE - 80

I don't think any established 105+ scorer has even done an ACL (I suppose Malceski is the closest). It does increase my doubts whether Libba can average 100+ when no one has ever done it before after an ACL. It's also food for thought re: Rich as historically it seems players second season after an ACL is generally a lot better.

Although not an ACL Barlow went 116/13 LEG - 83/9 - 95 - 110 - 112 - 93, so it took him 1.5 seasons to get back to a reasonable average and 2 to hit a premium average again.

This does make me re think Libba, as the aim is he would be a keeper. Will still watch NAB form, but question is could I pick up a rookie instead at $150k who I can use the cash elsewhere and still make $150k on that rookie. Assuming Libba should deliver at least 30 points on his breakeven.

 

[Couch Coach]

Rowsus,

At the start of the 2015 season there were a number of breakout candidates nominated by the community like Newnes and Jason Johannisen.

Newnes went on to score reasonably well while JJ didn't set the world on fire.

Do you see any hope for JJ and other similar previously hyped players to have a breakout season this year?

Regards,

CC

 

[chels]

Rowsus,

At the start of the 2015 season there were a number of breakout candidates nominated by the community like Newnes and Jason Johannisen.

Newnes went on to score reasonably well while JJ didn't set the world on fire.

Do you see any hope for JJ and other similar previously hyped players to have a breakout season this year?

Regards,

CC

I think post 169 in this thread begins to answer your question -
http://www.supercoachscores.com/thr...ysis-Of-2015-Season/page9?p=228058#post228058

 

[MC's Mix]

I think post 169 in this thread begins to answer your question -
http://www.supercoachscores.com/thr...ysis-Of-2015-Season/page9?p=228058#post228058

Post #169 doesn't exist in that thread. If you're referring to #163, with Rowsus' predictions for breakouts, the original question is referring to players that were hyped in previous years as opposed to this year. Not 100% sure though!

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Rowsus,

At the start of the 2015 season there were a number of breakout candidates nominated by the community like Newnes and Jason Johannisen.

Newnes went on to score reasonably well while JJ didn't set the world on fire.

Do you see any hope for JJ and other similar previously hyped players to have a breakout season this year?

Regards,

CC

I see some players like Smith, Rosa, K.Kolo, Rich and Yeo possibly falling into this category. I know Rowsus has already written about some of these guys in the Analysis and Tables thread but I'm still unsure about which (if any) should be considered. Hopefully Rowsus can through these guys into the mix ?

 

[Rowsus]

A couple of questions for interpretation purposes: Are you saying that Shaw will probably only drop to 540k or so, and if he falls more he's likely not so good a pick-up anyway?

To be fair, neither.
I try to avoid absolutes where possible. Shaw's 2015 season should be looked on as an outrider, not only for Shaw, but Defs in general. Just for demonstration purposes, the top averaging Defs looking back:
2015: Shaw 22/112
2014: Malceski 22/105
2013: Goddard 22/106
2012: Deledio 22/117 (wasn't available as a Def in 2013, fell $74,400 within the first 14 Round cut off)
2011: Goddard 22/108
2010: Goddard 21/130, Hodge 21/116 (Goddard fell $215,100 by round 13, was still a good pick, but not if you paid top dollar. Hodge fell $124,600 and was Mid only in 2011)
Only 4 Def averages over 110 in 6 seasons qualifies it as an outrider. 2 of the 3 that have played a subsequent season weren't available as Defs the next season. All 3 experienced big price falls, but would have been good picks as Defs, if available. You could argue for each of them, you would have been best off not starting them, but waiting to get them. The higher your previous seasons average, the higher your price is next season, the more likely you are to experience a decent price drop. Stating the obvious.
Because of Shaws outrider high average, I expect him to drop below $540k within the first 14 Rounds, and I expect he will still prove to be a good pick. As to the timing of that pick, start with him or wait, my sense of history tells me it is best to wait.

 

[Mudflap]

Rowsus I am after a forward valued at $475 - 550K and just cant land on anyone. If you could nominate a top 3 in that range it would be appreciated.

I was leaning towards Higgins (although not convinced) but after reading your table and analysis thread have started to look elsewhere (you also don't seem overly bullish about Wingard or Westoff). Bennell has an injury concern, Roughy is cooked (and with him out I dont like Gunston).... on and on it goes.

Thanks in advance

 

[Rowsus]

This does make me re think Libba, as the aim is he would be a keeper. Will still watch NAB form, but question is could I pick up a rookie instead at $150k who I can use the cash elsewhere and still make $150k on that rookie. Assuming Libba should deliver at least 30 points on his breakeven.

Barring re-injury, or something similar, I think if Libba makes $150k he becomes a trap M8 in most teams. Outside of him putting together a couple of big scores to make a quick price jump, if he makes $150k he will be averaging around 102/103, and most Coaches won't deal with that situation. They'll leave him at M8, and use their trades on more pressing issues.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus,

At the start of the 2015 season there were a number of breakout candidates nominated by the community like Newnes and Jason Johannisen.

Newnes went on to score reasonably well while JJ didn't set the world on fire.

Do you see any hope for JJ and other similar previously hyped players to have a breakout season this year?

Regards,

CC

I must admit, I'm having trouble listing them in my head. I guess there were any number of players slated for Break Outs in 2015, but how many of them were really credible contenders, and how many were more a case of wishing, i'm not to sure.
One that does spring to mind is Macmillan. He went most of the way to a Break Out in 2015, jumping from 4/63.0 to 14/88.7. If he can keep his legs in good order, I believe he can be a 94-97/game player this year, but it might be a big "if". He averaged 95.4 when match fit in 2015, so I don't see why he can't again in 2016.

I think post 169 in this thread begins to answer your question -
http://www.supercoachscores.com/thr...ysis-Of-2015-Season/page9?p=228058#post228058

Post #169 doesn't exist in that thread. If you're referring to #163, with Rowsus' predictions for breakouts, the original question is referring to players that were hyped in previous years as opposed to this year. Not 100% sure though!

Yes, chels meant #163, and yes, he slightly mistook the intention of the question.

I see some players like Smith, Rosa, K.Kolo, Rich and Yeo possibly falling into this category. I know Rowsus has already written about some of these guys in the Analysis and Tables thread but I'm still unsure about which (if any) should be considered. Hopefully Rowsus can through these guys into the mix ?

I'm not sure I can put Rosa in a group for Break Out contenders, even with a change of Club. The reason being, I think any player with 6+ seasons, or over 120 games is unlikely to Break Out. They might record a spike season, but I don't think they'd hit my definition of a Break Out. A Break Out being where they lift their scoring to a SC relevant level, and it can be reasonably be expected they will score at or around this level in the following season or two.
Smith appeared to have had his Break Out in 2014. There was a small push for Yeo in the Pre-season of 2015, but I don't think he was widely looked upon as a Break Out contender. He took a step in 2015, and like Macmillan, may take another step in 2016. Rich was a cross between a Break Out contender (in some coaches minds) and a bargain pick in 2015. He proved to be neither, and I see nothing to change my mind for the coming season. KK falls into a different catagory of sorts, being a 2nd year player in 2015. He made great progression, going from 68 in 2014 to 89 in 2015. My own thoughts are, that part of that progression was due to team circumstances and injuries. Being a 3rd year player you can expect him to make progress in his football, and his role within the team. Due to players coming back into the team, I don't however believe this progress will translate to much improvement in SC terms.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus I am after a forward valued at $475 - 550K and just cant land on anyone. If you could nominate a top 3 in that range it would be appreciated.

I was leaning towards Higgins (although not convinced) but after reading your table and analysis thread have started to look elsewhere (you also don't seem overly bullish about Wingard or Westoff). Bennell has an injury concern, Roughy is cooked (and with him out I dont like Gunston).... on and on it goes.

Thanks in advance

Of the around 30 Fwds in the $475-$550k the 3 I like best are:
Barlow, Harvey, Tippett from a season or starting and Keeping point of view. I can see use in Buddy, Wingard and Westhoff, but I think they are less likely to give a full season of satisfaction.

 

[Brettthejett]

Of the around 30 Fwds in the $475-$550k the 3 I like best are:
Barlow, Harvey, Tippett from a season or starting and Keeping point of view. I can see use in Buddy, Wingard and Westhoff, but I think they are less likely to give a full season of satisfaction.

Glad to see this post. Makes me think I'm on the right track with my fwds
Currently delidio, dusty, barlow, tippet and rookies

 

[Darkie]

Rowsus, it's great to see this thread back in action. I have a question that might be of interest:

What are the most important factors that have changed since last year, and what impact should they have on our strategy?

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus, it's great to see this thread back in action. I have a question that might be of interest:

What are the most important factors that have changed since last year, and what impact should they have on our strategy?

Hi Darkie, thanks for that.
Are there any factors that have changed from last year?
Interchange and subs have had a change, but they really shouldn't alter our strategies.

I guess the other factor that has changed the landscape a little is the Essendon saga. Once again, the basic strategy doesn't change. Try and get the best Cash makers, at the best price, then fill your team with best priced and most reliable Prems.

Was there something that you saw that has changed from last season?

 

[Manikato1]

Of the around 30 Fwds in the $475-$550k the 3 I like best are:
Barlow, Harvey, Tippett from a season or starting and Keeping point of view. I can see use in Buddy, Wingard and Westhoff, but I think they are less likely to give a full season of satisfaction.

Given the price range criteria in Mudflaps question where do you see Tom Bell in forward line options Rowsus? Last season at Carlton hit 7 tons including 2 x 143 so can go big. Wanted to move home to Brisbane and he has know Leppa for a number of years so I think he will get his chance. Coming into his 5th season and played 22 games last year. Would have been nice to be dpp but is there any upside?

On players coming back from ACL injuries I tried doing something similar just based on knee injuries (not just ACL). Started with injuries in 2013 that were comebacks in 2014 but I found so few players that were SC relevant the sample would not have been good for anything.

 

[Rowsus]

Given the price range criteria in Mudflaps question where do you see Tom Bell in forward line options Rowsus? Last season at Carlton hit 7 tons including 2 x 143 so can go big. Wanted to move home to Brisbane and he has know Leppa for a number of years so I think he will get his chance. Coming into his 5th season and played 22 games last year. Would have been nice to be dpp but is there any upside?

On players coming back from ACL injuries I tried doing something similar just based on knee injuries (not just ACL). Started with injuries in 2013 that were comebacks in 2014 but I found so few players that were SC relevant the sample would not have been good for anything.

I don't see much upside with Bell. Most of his good scores were against weak opposition:
143 (StK), 143 (Bris), 124 (GC), 115 (GWS), 115 (Rich), 108 (Fre), 107 (Bris)
In quite a few of those good scores, he was getting a reasonable run in the Midfield, and while that will happen at times, it won't happen enough unless Brisbane suffer some LTI's. Lastly, 6 scores under 70, 2 in the 70's, and 6 in the 80's gives him 14 scores under 90, that average out at 73.
He's in the Break Out zone game-wise and season wise, but Break Outs need ability and opportunity to meet. There's a question mark on his ability over a whole season, and a bigger question mark over what opportunities will be presented to him in 2016. He looks like a high risk pick.