Opinion Todd Goldstein $695,100 - Trust Or Trap?

[Lukus193]

By moving Blics to the mids does this mean you see him as a top 10-12 scoring midfielder for the year?

Potentially yes. I'm backing him to increase his 104 average from last year.

I just love his versatility and I think Chris Scott does too.

Let's be honest, Geelong's ruck brigade are some of the most injury prone in the league (Z Smith, Vardy, Stanley, Clark), so I'd expect Blicavs to still do some rucking. Aside from hit outs, I'd expect him to match or increase in most categories this season.

 

[Rowsus]

Potentially yes. I'm backing him to increase his 104 average from last year.

I just love his versatility and I think Chris Scott does too.

Let's be honest, Geelong's ruck brigade are some of the most injury prone in the league (Z Smith, Vardy, Stanley, Clark), so I'd expect Blicavs to still do some rucking. Aside from hit outs, I'd expect him to match or increase in most categories this season.

I'd really like those that are pushing up for Blicavs to increase his score this year to quantify where this will happen.
More possessions? More hitouts? I just can't see where it will happen, but I have an open mind.
where do you see these extra points coming from, and how will he get the opportunity, with the addition of Smith and Dangerfield?

 

[Nathan]

I'd really like those that are pushing up for Blicavs to increase his score this year to quantify where this will happen.
More possessions? More hitouts? I just can't see where it will happen, but I have an open mind.
where do you see these extra points coming from, and how will he get the opportunity, with the addition of Smith and Dangerfield?

........and a fit Duncan and Scott Selwood

 

[Manikato1]

I am interested by the move of Blicavs to the mids as I am confused as to why you would do this. If as R2 he is scoring ave of say 105 then that is probably only good enough for M8. If you move him to the mids who are you replacing? A cash cow? If the cash cow is around 375 or 400k would you not still need another 200k to get another quality ruckman? If you have that 200k why would you not just use it to upgrade the cash cow direct to a premium mid and save yourself a trade? Does it matter what line Blicavs 105 appears? What I am missing here….

 

[Bomber18]

Good question. The answer is it doesnt matter which line he is in! It just provides more options! The option I like is potentially if I start a 105 avg Blicavs I can trade in Rucs or Mids (depending on how they are scoring). I hope to trade in Jacobs after his tough period. Jacobs could score better than a premium mid in the second half of the season. He also could provide flexibility around byes.

 

[Nathan]

Good question. The answer is it doesnt matter which line he is in! It just provides more options! The option I like is potentially if I start a 105 avg Blicavs I can trade in Rucs or Mids (depending on how they are scoring). I hope to trade in Jacobs after his tough period. Jacobs could score better than a premium mid in the second half of the season. He also could provide flexibility around byes.

Even with a 'rough start' i see Jacobs at least matching Blicavs.

At 20k difference it doesn't seem worth it.

 

[Bomber18]

Even with a 'rough start' i see Jacobs at least matching Blicavs.

At 20k difference it doesn't seem worth it.

Jacobs averaged 83.6 in losses last year. I'm not so convinced personally.

 

[Lukus193]

I'd really like those that are pushing up for Blicavs to increase his score this year to quantify where this will happen.
More possessions? More hitouts? I just can't see where it will happen, but I have an open mind.
where do you see these extra points coming from, and how will he get the opportunity, with the addition of Smith and Dangerfield?

You could well be right Rowsus. I'm rethinking it as we speak. Less hitouts certainly seems likely.

He could play just about any position on the ground but it is certainly an unknown how his 'non ruck' time will be from a scoring perspective.

Back to the drawing board!!

Martin and Tippett now R1 and R2.

 

[Manikato1]

He could play just about any position on the ground but it is certainly an unknown how his 'non ruck' time will be from a scoring perspective.

REIGNING best and fairest winner Mark Blicavs won't be required to ruck this season if all goes to plan at Geelong in 2016.

With Gold Coast ruckman Zac Smith added in the off-season to a list that already boasted quality talls Rhys Stanley, Nathan Vardy and Mitch Clark, coach Chris Scott said the Cats hoped Blicavs would fill a different role.

From AFL website Jan 29

So if it goes to plan he has no ruck time although if he just happens to be at a stoppage with no ruck support no doubt he would take the ruck.

The answer is it doesnt matter which line he is in! It just provides more options!

Mmmm.... maybe but not convinced. However having said that this is what is so great about this site. We get to hear all kinds of opinions and we all get to learn something from that.

 

[Lukus193]

So if it goes to plan he has no ruck time although if he just happens to be at a stoppage with no ruck support no doubt he would take the ruck.

Could also be the third man up on quite a few occasions. You'd also expect 'effective' hitouts to increase slightly, based on the 'Dangerfield' factor at stoppages.

I could be clutching at straws too!!

 

[Bomber18]

With his elite endurance I could see Blitz improving his TOG and get more disposals due to new cap. More wins would help his cause too. Looking at the statistics doesnt really give reasons to pick him but honestly there has never been a player in the AFL quite like him.

 

[Muffin Head]

If you look at Goldstein's history over the past 5 years it reads as follows:

2011 P21 A113.2
2012 P20 A93.0
2013 P22 A113.5
2014 P21 A106.9
2015 P21 A128.8

So over the last 5 years he has averaged 21 games per year at 111. Yes I agree you are paying a premium for him but as a set and forget ruckman you can't go wrong.

 

[I am Cursed :(]

Blicavs:
I'm in the same camp as Rowsus in that I don't know where his improvement will come from. The cats recruited Zac Smith which on face value signals less ruck time for Blicavs. The latter third of the season Geelong were basically "cheating" in ruck contests. By "cheating" I mean the nominated ruck would not contest the footy and instead just try to nullify the opposition ruckman while a third man up (Blicavs) would then have a free run at it. It was ugly, the commentators were all over it and I can't see the umpires letting it continue this year.

He's obviously an athletic beast, so the reduction in interchange should help guys like him with their TOG. I think any gain he gets there he loses in the ruck. The best game I saw him play was floating across half back taking intercept marks. I wouldn't pick him as a ruck or midfielder.

Goldy:
Two weeks ago you couldn't pay me to stick him in my side. I thought for sure you could get the same if not better value having a guy like Jacobs or Martin and spending the $100k elsewhere. I have pretty much done a 180 and now think he is an ok investment. Stef Martin's game count concerns me. He was quoted last week saying it's going to be tough running out full games with the reduction in interchange and the loss of Leuenburger. Prior to last season, his game count sucks so I'm not confident that one good season is enough to pick him as "set and forget". Jacobs has a tough start, and no Dangerfield which could hurt his HTA stat.

Instead of picking apart the negatives with other players, just look at the positives with Goldy. He's pretty much a lock for 20-22 games, and pretty much a lock for a 110 point average. He's got several seasons under his belt playing as the lone ruckman, so I don't think the reduction in interchange will hurt him. He's coming off a career best year with no real reason he should DECLINE.

He's expensive, but I think a 110ppg set and forget ruck is worth his weight in gold. The ruck line is typically a brutal waste of trades, the other lines are easier to fix / find value.

 

[Bomber18]

Blicavs:
I'm in the same camp as Rowsus in that I don't know where his improvement will come from. The cats recruited Zac Smith which on face value signals less ruck time for Blicavs. The latter third of the season Geelong were basically "cheating" in ruck contests. By "cheating" I mean the nominated ruck would not contest the footy and instead just try to nullify the opposition ruckman while a third man up (Blicavs) would then have a free run at it. It was ugly, the commentators were all over it and I can't see the umpires letting it continue this year.

He's obviously an athletic beast, so the reduction in interchange should help guys like him with their TOG. I think any gain he gets there he loses in the ruck. The best game I saw him play was floating across half back taking intercept marks. I wouldn't pick him as a ruck or midfielder.

Goldy:
Two weeks ago you couldn't pay me to stick him in my side. I thought for sure you could get the same if not better value having a guy like Jacobs or Martin and spending the $100k elsewhere. I have pretty much done a 180 and now think he is an ok investment. Stef Martin's game count concerns me. He was quoted last week saying it's going to be tough running out full games with the reduction in interchange and the loss of Leuenburger. Prior to last season, his game count sucks so I'm not confident that one good season is enough to pick him as "set and forget". Jacobs has a tough start, and no Dangerfield which could hurt his HTA stat.

Instead of picking apart the negatives with other players, just look at the positives with Goldy. He's pretty much a lock for 20-22 games, and pretty much a lock for a 110 point average. He's got several seasons under his belt playing as the lone ruckman, so I don't think the reduction in interchange will hurt him. He's coming off a career best year with no real reason he should DECLINE.

He's expensive, but I think a 110ppg set and forget ruck is worth his weight in gold. The ruck line is typically a brutal waste of trades, the other lines are easier to fix / find value.

I agree with you regarding Goldy! I'm happier to take gambles and find value elsewhere.

Interesting points you make about Blicavs potentially infringing third man up rules. I imagine he would still get a few third man up hitouts while playing as a mid. He did break the record for third man up hitouts last year too. If the cat's tactics are something the umpires look to stamp out that would affect Blicavs scoring too. Nice pick up

 

[davo]

Is there a rule against 3rd man up? Alot of his hit outs were third man up last year if its a rule they didnt enforce it

 

[Jurn Stern]

Blicavs:
I'm in the same camp as Rowsus in that I don't know where his improvement will come from. The cats recruited Zac Smith which on face value signals less ruck time for Blicavs. The latter third of the season Geelong were basically "cheating" in ruck contests. By "cheating" I mean the nominated ruck would not contest the footy and instead just try to nullify the opposition ruckman while a third man up (Blicavs) would then have a free run at it. It was ugly, the commentators were all over it and I can't see the umpires letting it continue this year.

He's obviously an athletic beast, so the reduction in interchange should help guys like him with their TOG. I think any gain he gets there he loses in the ruck. The best game I saw him play was floating across half back taking intercept marks. I wouldn't pick him as a ruck or midfielder.

Goldy:
Two weeks ago you couldn't pay me to stick him in my side. I thought for sure you could get the same if not better value having a guy like Jacobs or Martin and spending the $100k elsewhere. I have pretty much done a 180 and now think he is an ok investment. Stef Martin's game count concerns me. He was quoted last week saying it's going to be tough running out full games with the reduction in interchange and the loss of Leuenburger. Prior to last season, his game count sucks so I'm not confident that one good season is enough to pick him as "set and forget". Jacobs has a tough start, and no Dangerfield which could hurt his HTA stat.

Instead of picking apart the negatives with other players, just look at the positives with Goldy. He's pretty much a lock for 20-22 games, and pretty much a lock for a 110 point average. He's got several seasons under his belt playing as the lone ruckman, so I don't think the reduction in interchange will hurt him. He's coming off a career best year with no real reason he should DECLINE.

He's expensive, but I think a 110ppg set and forget ruck is worth his weight in gold. The ruck line is typically a brutal waste of trades, the other lines are easier to fix / find value.

A 110ppg set and forget ruck is worth approx 600k at the beginning of the season, not 700k. Never has a ruckman been priced so highly to start the season. I can't see it being a good idea. Agreed that it is easier to find value in other lines on the ground though. Rucks suck to select.

 

[I am Cursed :(]

A 110ppg set and forget ruck is worth approx 600k at the beginning of the season, not 700k. Never has a ruckman been priced so highly to start the season. I can't see it being a good idea. Agreed that it is easier to find value in other lines on the ground though. Rucks suck to select.

I agree, but what I'm saying is the 'value' isn't just in his points, but the fact that you can pick him with confidence knowing he is good for 20+ games per season @ roughly 110. I would say 110 is probably the lower end of what he will average for the year. He is capable of having another 120+ season. The reduced interchange actually favors him, given he is used to being the lone ruck. A lot of these other guys who shared the rucking have had to try and improve their fitness base in the off season.

Obviously anything can happen, but he doesn't come with the risks attached to a lot of the other players. The other "safe" options look to be Jacobs and Sandilands. Sandilands actually surprised me, having played 21 games the past two years. Jacobs start to the year is a bit rough.

There's no rule against third man up, but there should (and probably will) be a rule against ruckmen who do not contest the ball. Good on them for getting away with it for so long, but my view is it will be interpreted the same as marking contests where if your sole objective is to take out the man you will give away a free kick.

 

[THCLT]

If you look at Goldstein's history over the past 5 years it reads as follows:

2011 P21 A113.2
2012 P20 A93.0
2013 P22 A113.5
2014 P21 A106.9
2015 P21 A128.8

So over the last 5 years he has averaged 21 games per year at 111. Yes I agree you are paying a premium for him but as a set and forget ruckman you can't go wrong.

Further to this...

In 2012, he played rounds 1-4, 7 in tandem with H McIntosh (missed rounds 5 and 6). Of this 5 games, Goldy only averaged 71.4 to McIntosh's 93.8, he played the last 15 games as a solo ruck and managed an average of 100.3 over the stretch!

In 2014, he endured a heavy shoulder knock in the first game against Essendon which hampered him for the first 7 rounds where he only returned an average of 87.7. For the remaining 14 games, he averaged an impressive 116.4 including scores of 74 and 75 in the mix!

 

[MrMurdoch]

Further to this...

In 2012, he played rounds 1-4, 7 in tandem with H McIntosh (missed rounds 5 and 6). Of this 5 games, Goldy only averaged 71.4 to McIntosh's 93.8, he played the last 15 games as a solo ruck and managed an average of 100.3 over the stretch!

In 2014, he endured a heavy shoulder knock in the first game against Essendon which hampered him for the first 7 rounds where he only returned an average of 87.7. For the remaining 14 games, he averaged an impressive 116.4 including scores of 74 and 75 in the mix!

Just as I was shying away from him...

 

[Blaze]

Just as I was shying away from him...

lol me too...i knew I shouldn't have clicked on this thread now I may have to rejig my whole team again!