Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

i decided to get rid of mills weltering etc and get bartel and lonergan in

im personally not that keen on bartel but i struggle to see him not being a top 6 back

and lonergan i really like did a good tagging job on boak and got 91 points and 68 dt points which is a good sign and also got 117 against sydney and 103 against adelaide

I know that the suns having their midfield back will take points away but the fact that he is kind of like a kornes tagger he can continue to hopefully do most weeks what he did against boak

whats your view on lonergan?

Curse you for asking that! He's sitting at D4 in my team as we speak!
I will add, that he will be the first one out, if I need to free up some cash for improvememnts elsewhere.
I'm not 100% sold on his JS, but I know Eade has been impressed with his pre-season, and he was rated nearly as highly as JOM in the junior ranks. The fact that he is D/M this season convinced me to sit him at D4, as he can gather numerous possessions. He might be a mini repeat of Swallow from 2014, but as I said, he is very shakily in my team, as we speak.

 

[jaca]

Interesting comment re: no doggies mids over 110. Suggests to me that Libba is maybe not as valuable as he might seem.

 

[Rowsus]

Listening to Scott, they don't want Blicavs in the ruck, because they see him so valuable elsewhere. He is a giant running tackling stoppage intercepting machine.

He won their b n f,
He's learning the game, but has good skills.

He's miles from when Brad Hill towelled him up in finals.
I'm seeing a premium midfielder, who will go 3rd man up all around the ground, getting hit-outs to advantage/first hands on the pill.

Lockity lock!

He attended an awful lot of Stoppages in 2015, and wasn't a Clearance/first hands beast. As you said, Scott says he won't be used as much as a Ruck, so if you want him at as many Stoppages in 2016, who steps back from these contests, to make room for Blicavs? Dangerfield, Selwood, Duncan, Guthrie, Caddy? And don't forget Dangerfield is "new", so already everybody else is attending less anyway. It would seem certain that Blicavs is attending less Stoppages, getting less Hitouts, and spending more time "roaming" as to where he is needed, especially across half back.

No one else has been able to quantify where he will not only gather more points, but where he will pick up the points lost from being at less Stoppages.
You say you are seeing a Premium Midfielder, would you care to explain whose spot he is taking, and have a crack at explaining where the lost and extra points are going to come from, Diceman?

 

[Rowsus]

Interesting comment re: no doggies mids over 110. Suggests to me that Libba is maybe not as valuable as he might seem.

Even though he will have had 13 months off, I'd be amazed if Libba can get over 105, let alone over 110. New coach, new structure, first year back from a knee, none of it lines up as a 110 season. Most players need a year off, and a year back, to get back to their best after a knee. To expect a 110 from a returning knee player would appear to be setting the bar too high, from what history has shown us.
I'm not taking Libba, and he was in my team for 2 years before he did his knee. I'm expecting something not much either side of 100 from him. I think if you take him, you need to be confident of something close to 105.

 

[Bomber18]

Even though he will have had 13 months off, I'd be amazed if Libba can get over 105, let alone over 110. New coach, new structure, first year back from a knee, none of it lines up as a 110 season. Most players need a year off, and a year back, to get back to their best after a knee. To expect a 110 from a returning knee player would appear to be setting the bar too high, from what history has shown us.
I'm not taking Libba, and he was in my team for 2 years before he did his knee. I'm expecting something not much either side of 100 from him. I think if you take him, you need to be confident of something close to 105.

Great comments! Agree with you!
Personally I think he will average high 90s which is not enough at his price but every player comes back differently from injuries so I could be swayed by NAB form if he looks like the player he was before. ACL knee reconstructions also increase the chance of hamstring/calf injuries due to grafts needed from the hamstring tendon.

 

[Manikato1]

I'm not taking Libba, and he was in my team for 2 years before he did his knee. I'm expecting something not much either side of 100 from him. I think if you take him, you need to be confident of something close to 105.

So if you are right Rowsus I wonder what people will do with him come midseason? If he does hit 110 ave by then he is a keeper no doubt. But let's say Libba does ave 100 (say 95/105 on alternate weeks for a steady progression)he should be around $485 ish by week 13.

At this point he could be your long term M8, may even be on the bench in an uber strong midfield or be used as a stepping stone. Most of these things would depend on your cash reserves, number of trades you have left etc. It is hard to predict where you will be mid season with these kinds of things so I wonder what other coaches will do with him at this point. And what is the game plan if he ave below 100?

On the other hand if you replaced Libba with a 123k rookie that could ave 80 (and they can do that in the first half of the season) by rd 13 he would be around $375k. However you could have taken the $230k price diff and turned another player elsewhere into a premium and covered the 20pt per week difference. Your strategy here is upgrade no question. And if a Callum Mills could push it up to ave 85 he could be around $405k by rd 13.

So I am interested in the pros and cons of this scenario as Libba is a big question mark for me atm.

 

[Rowsus]

So if you are right Rowsus I wonder what people will do with him come midseason? If he does hit 110 ave by then he is a keeper no doubt. But let's say Libba does ave 100 (say 95/105 on alternate weeks for a steady progression)he should be around $485 ish by week 13.

At this point he could be your long term M8, may even be on the bench in an uber strong midfield or be used as a stepping stone. Most of these things would depend on your cash reserves, number of trades you have left etc. It is hard to predict where you will be mid season with these kinds of things so I wonder what other coaches will do with him at this point. And what is the game plan if he ave below 100?

On the other hand if you replaced Libba with a 123k rookie that could ave 80 (and they can do that in the first half of the season) by rd 13 he would be around $375k. However you could have taken the $230k price diff and turned another player elsewhere into a premium and covered the 20pt per week difference. Your strategy here is upgrade no question. And if a Callum Mills could push it up to ave 85 he could be around $405k by rd 13.

So I am interested in the pros and cons of this scenario as Libba is a big question mark for me atm.

You've sort of summed up why I won't have him. I see him ending up as a trap M8 for most of the teams that take him. There will be bigger problems to fix, than an M8 leaking 5-10 points/Round, so you end up not fixing him.

If he averages around 100 he will make about $135k before/if he is traded out. A $123k Rookie needs to average around 55 to make the same amount of money. Keeping in mind, the Rookie you are comparing to Libba isn't your first picked, will start most weeks, Gun Rookie, but your last picked, probably 6th Rookie in your Mid, that might rarely be in your 22. Even so, I think we can usually find a Mid Rookie that is worth more than 55/game, even with our 6th pick. This leaves you with the $230k to upgrade another pick elsewhere, maybe a Premium to a SuperPremium, and high Mid Pricer to a safe/r pick. Either way, you need to find around 25-30 points with that money, so you can break even on points, with those that started Libba. The other advantage non-Libba owners end up with, unless Libba can drag himself up to the 105+ mark, is they have either potentially saved a trade, by using the spare change to make an upgrade, or they end up with a stronger M8 than Libba owners.
It's why I say, you shouldn't take Libba, unless you are reasonably confident he can give you at least 105 for the season.

 

[chels]

A question for you Rowsus and btw I am having trouble articulating exactly what I am asking.

Hawthorn have been particularly successful as a club in the last three years. But have their players been successful SC picks? First, by what margin do the SC points for the hawks exceed the SC points against? Second, do the players share points around in the sense of there are no stand out players (yep, I know Hodge was a good D pick last year) in SC terms? Third, is there a correlation between the number of games played and SC points in the hawks' SC numbers (and maybe in the wider population)? Or would we see something in the relationship between position and SC points?

Hope this makes sense - I am not sure how you might depict this but I am confident you will find a way to answer this and answer my query.

 

[Adrenaline]

hi row

thanks for providing so much information every day. the forum has definitely helped me to choose my structure and the majority of players this year. i was hoping if you can answer the following questions:
1. which is the best mid price player for value out of libba, JOM, Crouch.
2. who would you choose out of harvey and franklin. i have read your reviews on both players and it sounds like franklin is best choice however if i choose franklin i will need to upgrade him. would that be your advice?
3. what is your top 6 predictions for the best "value" players in def and forward lines?

 

[MC's Mix]

Gday Row, thanks for your earlier reply. Just one more for now:

With the incoming rotation cap, and with (presumably) far more players resting forward or back, how do you see the DPP players looking for next year? Will they adjust their selction criteria do you think or still base it on percentage of time/possessions?

Cheers!

 

[DicemanReturns]

I don't think he replaces anyone. I think he's their 1st pick at the stoppage.

I think the cats will look to exploit having two ruck men at contests, as they threatened last year (but ran out of ruck men)

His wingspan, agility, speed, and fitness, make him a mobile wall that can get to more contests then almost anyone, and as 3rd man up, will get lots of hitouts to advantage from stoppages.

He was getting a game on fitness/potential at the start of last year. I'm expecting him to be a lot better this year.

 

[Rowsus]

A question for you Rowsus and btw I am having trouble articulating exactly what I am asking.

Hawthorn have been particularly successful as a club in the last three years. But have their players been successful SC picks?

2013
Defs: Agg - Burgoyne 20/1704 (21st), Ave - Birchall 14/92.1 (11th), PIT60 - Burgoyne 1824/82.9 (20th)
Mids: Agg - Mitchell 21/2188 (27th), Ave - Mitchell 21/104.2 (26th), PIT75 - Mitchell 2263/102.9 (27th)
Ruck; Agg - Roughead 22/2167 (4th), Ave - Roughead 22/98.5 (4th), PIT65 - Roughead 2167/98.5 (4th)
Fwds: Agg - Roughead 22/2167 (8th), Ave - Roughead 22/98.5 (11th), PIT65 - Roughead 2167/98.5 (9th)

Only Roughead was a good pick in 2013, in the Fwd line.

2014
Defs: Agg - Burgoyne 22/2073 (7th), Ave - Burgoyne 22/94.2 (7th), PIT60 - Burgoyne 2073/92.4 (7th)
Mids: Agg - Lewis 21/2298 (13th), Ave - Lewis 21/109.4 (15th), PIT75 - Lewis 2373/107.9 (17th)
Ruck; Agg - Hale 19/1388 (16th), Ave - McEvoy 12/89.8 (11th), PIT65 - McEvoy 1727/78.5 (14th)
Fwds: Agg - Roughead 20/1915 (11th), Ave - Roughead 20/95.8 (11th), PIT65 - Roughead 2045/93.0 (8th)

Burgoyne, Roughead and Lewis were ok picks, but not at the pointy end of rankings.

2015
Defs: Agg - Gibson 21/1904 (12th), Ave - Hodge 17/108.3 (2nd), PIT60 - Hodge 2141/97.3 (2nd)
Mids: Agg - Mitchell 20/2174 (24th), Ave - Mitchell 20/108.7 (14th), PIT75 - Mitchell 2324/105.6 (11th)
Ruck; Agg - McEvoy 15/1257 (12th), Ave - McEvoy 15/83.8 (14th), PIT00 - McEvoy 1257/57.1 (12th)
Fwds: Agg - Gunston 22/2125 (8th), Ave - Gunston 22/96.6 (14th), PIT65 - Gunston 2125/96.6 (10th)

Hodge was a good pick, Gunston was an ok pick and Mitchell was an ok pick.

In general, Hawthorn have failed to produce more than 2 players that finished better than 4th in the last 3 seasons. It would tend to suggest you need to careful picking Hawthorn players.

First, by what margin do the SC points for the hawks exceed the SC points against?

2013: 1731 for, 1569 against (+162)
2014: 1740 for, 1560 against (+180)
2015: 1773 for, 1527 against (+246)

source: THCLT's SC Team Analysis 2012 to 2015

Second, do the players share points around in the sense of there are no stand out players (yep, I know Hodge was a good D pick last year) in SC terms?

The results of the first two questions leads us to the undeniable conclusion, that Hawthorn's game style does lead to a more even distribution of points amongst it's players, than most other sides.

Third, is there a correlation between the number of games played and SC points in the hawks' SC numbers (and maybe in the wider population)? Or would we see something in the relationship between position and SC points?

Hope this makes sense - I am not sure how you might depict this but I am confident you will find a way to answer this and answer my query.

There certainly seems to be a correlation between experience and points at Hawthorn.
Hawthorn had 13 players average over 80 in 2015.
The least experienced of those players were:
Jack Gunston 103 games
Isaac Smith 111 games
Luke Breust 116 games
Ben McEvoy 123 games
Liam Shiels 124 games
That is rather extraordinary. I'm pretty sure no other team has all of it's top 13 scorers with over 100 games experience. Apart from Gunston and Shiels, they were all at the lower end of the rankings, so those higher in the Hawthorn Rankings are very experienced players indeed!

 

[yakka]

Just would like to know what your thoughts are regarding Zac Smiths potential output this year. I have done some research and his numbers don't look that great, not to shore if that was due to not having opportunity at the Suns once Nickols came on the scene, or maybe the quality of the Suns midfield. Does he have better opportunities and better midfielders now his at the cats?? Does he have it in him to get to a 100 ave??

 

[chels]

Many thanks for the amazingly comprehensive answer Rowsus. I have been intrigued by the number of assertions on various sites that you must pick Hawthorn players because they are fantasy gold. However, it just did not feel that that was correct. Now some evidence!

I does make me a bit nervous about what looked like potentially natural picks in Hartung (27 games), O'Rourke (11 games) and Sicily (3 games); not to mention their rookies.

 

[Rowsus]

hi row

thanks for providing so much information every day. the forum has definitely helped me to choose my structure and the majority of players this year. i was hoping if you can answer the following questions:
1. which is the best mid price player for value out of libba, JOM, Crouch.

Hi ad,
that can vary from day to day at the moment. Certainly on latest news, JOM would be last. I think there is a possibility for Crouch to make more money, while Libba will score more points. I don't want either, but if forced to choose, I'd go Crouch, only because he is cheaper.

2. who would you choose out of harvey and franklin. i have read your reviews on both players and it sounds like franklin is best choice however if i choose franklin i will need to upgrade him. would that be your advice?

Seing as I have Buddy in my team, and not Harvey, I have to say Buddy. I don't think you'll need to upgrade Buddy, and if you think that is a chance, you shouldn't touch him. You might have to sideways him, or even potentially "downgrade" him to a fallen Prem, and pocket the change. I can see both being good picks, and while you are less likely to need to trade Harvey, he doesn't have the points upside that Buddy has. Buddy can give you that WOW factor, but he can also give you 50's and 60's. Buddy is the higher risk pick, has the potential for higher rewards. If you are already taking 2 or 3 risks, go Harvey, if not, take a punt on Buddy.

3. what is your top 6 predictions for the best "value" players in def and forward lines?

Without trying to be smart, value can be defined in different ways. Is it the player that outscores his price the most? A player priced at say $480k, that goes on to be a Fwd Keeper with a high 90's ave probably hasn't beaten his price by as much as many players, but would certainly appear to be a great value pick!

I will admit, I'm really having trouble identifying value in the Fwd line. I have been looking for weeks, and nothing is jumping out at me, that I can list with confidence. Buddy might head that list of Fwd value.

In Defence I think Williams, Duryea, Lonergan and Sheridan all have the potential to fill Def Keeper spots at good prices. I'd just be wary of how bad a history players in this price range have! I have no confidence in Malceski giving us 19/20+ games at a good Keeper level, though I am also sure he'll look like a he was a good pick at some stage this season.

 

[Rowsus]

Gday Row, thanks for your earlier reply. Just one more for now:

With the incoming rotation cap, and with (presumably) far more players resting forward or back, how do you see the DPP players looking for next year? Will they adjust their selction criteria do you think or still base it on percentage of time/possessions?

Cheers!

Gday MC's,
I think you might be overestimating the effect of the interchange cap. It actually doesn't change the game that much, and part of it is eaten by no more subs. Some Clubs were "interchanging" at the new restricted level as recently as 3 or 4 seasons ago, with little or no affect.
The other thing to keep in mind, a players position isn't dictated by where they get their possessions, it is dictated by where they line up at Stoppages. To gain DPP they need to line up both potential DPP positions more than 35% of the time.

Bottom line, I think the interchange changes won't be responsible for too many players getting, or not getting, DPP status.

 

[THCLT]

Being a Demons man, how do you see Tomas Bugg fitting into the club game plan and can you see him being released into a HBF role or will they persist with him as a tagger like he was at times at GWS?

Also you mentioned Duryea & Sheridan above, interested to understand your reasoning behind them as Duryea is currently sitting at D3 for my team!

 

[Blossoms]

In Defence I think Williams, Duryea, Lonergan and Sheridan all have the potential to fill Def Keeper spots at good prices. I'd just be wary of how bad a history players in this price range have! I have no confidence in Malceski giving us 19/20+ games at a good Keeper level, though I am also sure he'll look like a he was a good pick at some stage this season.

Thanks for that Row...for a while there I thought I had Tommy all to my self

 

[Rowsus]

Just would like to know what your thoughts are regarding Zac Smiths potential output this year. I have done some research and his numbers don't look that great, not to shore if that was due to not having opportunity at the Suns once Nickols came on the scene, or maybe the quality of the Suns midfield. Does he have better opportunities and better midfielders now his at the cats?? Does he have it in him to get to a 100 ave??

I guess the best starting point, is to look at the key stats for those Rucks that did average 100, to see where he needs to improve.

It would appear he needs to add around 10 Hitouts, 2 or 3 marks, and maybe 3 or 4 disposals. It doesn't sound like much if he is clear 1st Ruck, but I have grave doubts. He has a very good H2A:H/out ratio, which is good, but I can see him competing with Stanley/Blicavs/Clarke/Vardy and that might restrict him from achieving that goal. I can see him improving, but barring injuries to those he's competing with, within his own team, I think he might be limited to something around the Mid 80's.

 

[Rowsus]

Being a Demons man, how do you see Tomas Bugg fitting into the club game plan and can you see him being released into a HBF role or will they persist with him as a tagger like he was at times at GWS?!

I can see him sharing tagging duties, possibly with Brayshaw and the occassional run from Viney or Vince. When he's not tagging, I think he will play more negating half back, than creative half back, and as such, will remain SC irrelevant.

Also you mentioned Duryea & Sheridan above, interested to understand your reasoning behind them as Duryea is currently sitting at D3 for my team!

Duryea has never scored a H & A ton, but I love the way he played in the finals last year. If he is handed a similar role in 2016 he could be a very good pick. I am a bit wary of his price though, he could easily turn into a stagnating pick, that doesn't score enough, or move much in price.
Outside of his Round 21 SC 35 (TOG 53%), Sheridan averaged around 92 across 6 of his last 7 games, and looked good doing it! Duffield is gone now, and he could fill that role. My biggest concern with Sheridan is the Lyon factor. One week he will be killing it, and scoring 120, the next week Ross will be laughing at us, as he switches him to a more defensive role, and he coughs up a 60! The Freo Defs seem to rotate through roles in different games, so it can be hard to choose one with confidence.

Thanks for that Row...for a while there I thought I had Tommy all to my self

Happy to help, Blossom
Seriously though, I had him pencilled in from just before the finals last season, and unless he really lights up the NAB, I can see him being a huge POD, in only 1 or 2% of teams. I don't think me mentioning him here will alter his numbers that much.