Opinion Buddy Franklin ($470,100) - Training the house down! :)
- Thread starter IDIG
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I had a quick look and there was nothing to predict Cloke's start. His 3 big scores were against teams that had finished 1st, 9th and 12th the previous year. His second best of those 3 scores were in a loss and he only averaged 90 in wins the previous year. Total profit of $138,700 and a 114 average so not the cash generation you would like from a cash cow but very handy points on the ground.
The only lock in my forward line is Dusty so I still have time to become a spineless jellyfish.
The only lock in my forward line is Dusty so I still have time to become a spineless jellyfish.
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Hey Sven.
You're spot on, it was born out of opportunity. As a player it was my first serious crack at SC that year so really picking Cloke - which now seems like a crazy risky selection! - was done with some naivety. Also true was the fact SJ played his own role in the trade. IF there wasn't an available premium i wanted to trade down to and I certainly don't think I would've sideways traded him. I don't think I even considered anyone else. SJ was that perfectly primed for me to upgrade Cloke (that was definitely how I saw it despite his start to the year) and pocketed $140k. Which allowed me to upgrade Wines (rookie) to Priddis (via 1 wk in Daisy).
I certainly don't want to promote I went into the season (as this discussion implies about Buddy) with the perfect plan for Cloke to get off to a flyer and then down-trade him to a fallen premium. I think though what came about was so effective that now it would seem like people are looking for ways to recreate that trade. I think this speaks to why some have said they wouldn't have made the trade if they were in my shoes (if I can speak to them).
One reason it was so effective was that Cloke had such a low ownership and so in theory no one else made that trade other than me. This is one thing to keep in mind with the Buddy pick. If you are aiming for him to fast start so you can do a similar kind of trade the fact is, if 20% of the comp owns him, then they will do the trade too.
I've said it before though, you've got to put yourself in those lucky positions and thats the skill going into the season. Trying to identify where odds are in your favour. Buddy is a high scoring momentum player. If he does start well then those people game enough to bank on that will reap the benefits. There are plenty of other key forwards though who could kick bags in the opening rounds - Jack, Walker, even Cloke - who if you picked instead Buddy, would advantage your team by a far greater margin (cause they'll have low ownership). Buddy is just a safer option. There are less midfielders who won't be widely owned who are likely to massively outscore their averages in the opening rounds (ie 150+ scores back to back to back). This is why key forwards are suited to this kind of trade.
It's this kind of thinking that makes me shy away from Buddy as soon as I whack him in my team. The key to that trade was it's uniqueness. The more people that pick Buddy the less potential it has to be that standout trade for your team - ie don't make him your 'strategy' going into the year. He is no more or no less a strategy than someone who is hoping for Goldy's price to fall in the opening rounds to pick him up at $600k.
You're spot on, it was born out of opportunity. As a player it was my first serious crack at SC that year so really picking Cloke - which now seems like a crazy risky selection! - was done with some naivety. Also true was the fact SJ played his own role in the trade. IF there wasn't an available premium i wanted to trade down to and I certainly don't think I would've sideways traded him. I don't think I even considered anyone else. SJ was that perfectly primed for me to upgrade Cloke (that was definitely how I saw it despite his start to the year) and pocketed $140k. Which allowed me to upgrade Wines (rookie) to Priddis (via 1 wk in Daisy).
I certainly don't want to promote I went into the season (as this discussion implies about Buddy) with the perfect plan for Cloke to get off to a flyer and then down-trade him to a fallen premium. I think though what came about was so effective that now it would seem like people are looking for ways to recreate that trade. I think this speaks to why some have said they wouldn't have made the trade if they were in my shoes (if I can speak to them).
One reason it was so effective was that Cloke had such a low ownership and so in theory no one else made that trade other than me. This is one thing to keep in mind with the Buddy pick. If you are aiming for him to fast start so you can do a similar kind of trade the fact is, if 20% of the comp owns him, then they will do the trade too.
I've said it before though, you've got to put yourself in those lucky positions and thats the skill going into the season. Trying to identify where odds are in your favour. Buddy is a high scoring momentum player. If he does start well then those people game enough to bank on that will reap the benefits. There are plenty of other key forwards though who could kick bags in the opening rounds - Jack, Walker, even Cloke - who if you picked instead Buddy, would advantage your team by a far greater margin (cause they'll have low ownership). Buddy is just a safer option. There are less midfielders who won't be widely owned who are likely to massively outscore their averages in the opening rounds (ie 150+ scores back to back to back). This is why key forwards are suited to this kind of trade.
It's this kind of thinking that makes me shy away from Buddy as soon as I whack him in my team. The key to that trade was it's uniqueness. The more people that pick Buddy the less potential it has to be that standout trade for your team - ie don't make him your 'strategy' going into the year. He is no more or no less a strategy than someone who is hoping for Goldy's price to fall in the opening rounds to pick him up at $600k.
Great post Dimma, and what's really interesting about this is that despite this site having a very statistical and analytical focus, at the end of the day you do need to "take a punt" and go with the "gut feel", two phrases that I think are not very popular on SCS. I don't mean that as a criticism at all, I rely almost entirely 100% on SCS for insight, wisdom and outside the box thinking from fellow contributors (not to mention the genius of Rowsus), but for me analysis/stats should form the platform or base of your selections and then let the gut take over from there. It's a fine, fine balance and one which I don't get right (my results tell the story) but I can't help but think there is more room for upside from getting a unique strategy right. Luck plays a huge part.
I think a large of coaches on here do mainly use the stats as a base and sounding board, but ultimately make a lot of decisions based on gut feel. It probably doesn't get noticed as much as because posting "I'm picking player x based on gut feel" rarely makes a long post, whereas talking about the stats, or the players abilities and role in the team does lend itself to longer conversations and debates on the forum.
Buddy has had a long pre season, maybe hasn't trained the whole time but one would think he has 'freshened' up. We all know what he can do in games and normally that equates to big SC scores - but giving away countless free kicks can send you nuts as a supercoach owner!
Will be heavily owned, 470k is awesome, swans still a really good team, he seems to be fit, he is very much proven, could pull off a dimma/cloke move.
Buddy a lock at the moment for mine. Could be the number 1 forward for 470k! what if he turns into the hulk for 10 rounds like Jono Brown did at 140 average all those years ago? If he dominates early the pack has got a nice lead if you don't start him.
Will be heavily owned, 470k is awesome, swans still a really good team, he seems to be fit, he is very much proven, could pull off a dimma/cloke move.
Buddy a lock at the moment for mine. Could be the number 1 forward for 470k! what if he turns into the hulk for 10 rounds like Jono Brown did at 140 average all those years ago? If he dominates early the pack has got a nice lead if you don't start him.
Brilliant mate, I know exactly how you felt going in to that trade.
I started Monfries in 2013 on a hunch the year he was traded to Port and had a similar result. He started around $370,000 and went on to average 100 over the first few months until I pulled the trigger and ditched him for a SJ-type too. It allowed me to be right behind you right up until the painful end.
I think there is room for a stepping stone-type player somewhere but you'd have to be very clear on why he's in your team. I thought Monfires could get off to a flyer but despite how well he started I knew he'd never be a keeper. I think in 2013 we were aided by the fact that SJ was a gun who had an interrupted PS and didn't start the year until a little later and almost had a career year thereafter. Again as you mentioned, we can't control any of that but can at least put yourself in a position to capitalise on it. There'd need to be someone around that mark this year for it to work too.
I started Monfries in 2013 on a hunch the year he was traded to Port and had a similar result. He started around $370,000 and went on to average 100 over the first few months until I pulled the trigger and ditched him for a SJ-type too. It allowed me to be right behind you right up until the painful end.
I think there is room for a stepping stone-type player somewhere but you'd have to be very clear on why he's in your team. I thought Monfires could get off to a flyer but despite how well he started I knew he'd never be a keeper. I think in 2013 we were aided by the fact that SJ was a gun who had an interrupted PS and didn't start the year until a little later and almost had a career year thereafter. Again as you mentioned, we can't control any of that but can at least put yourself in a position to capitalise on it. There'd need to be someone around that mark this year for it to work too.
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