Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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Rowsus,
Thanks again for all your efforts this pre-season, it's been a fantastic read.
My question for you today revolves around the NAB Challenge. It's easy to dismiss it as pre-season garbage but I'm wondering whether there is a correlation between the high scores in NAB Challenge, and players who took the next step in the subsequent H&A Season. I seem to recall Trent Cotchin topping all players in the NAB Challenge for Supercoach Score in 2012, before having a breakout/spike season of 116 in the regular season. Was this a flash in the pan, or is there a link between the two? Jack Viney this year has had a very hot Challenge, and I wonder if history says there could be a scope for him to repeat a Cotchin2012?
Thanks!
Thanks again for all your efforts this pre-season, it's been a fantastic read.
My question for you today revolves around the NAB Challenge. It's easy to dismiss it as pre-season garbage but I'm wondering whether there is a correlation between the high scores in NAB Challenge, and players who took the next step in the subsequent H&A Season. I seem to recall Trent Cotchin topping all players in the NAB Challenge for Supercoach Score in 2012, before having a breakout/spike season of 116 in the regular season. Was this a flash in the pan, or is there a link between the two? Jack Viney this year has had a very hot Challenge, and I wonder if history says there could be a scope for him to repeat a Cotchin2012?
Thanks!
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hi row
i hope you are excited about the season starting soon. i read in one of your earlier post's about sam greys and your opinion in relation to being a good sc pick. It seems that he will be playing in the midfield. do you think he is a good starting pick? what do you expect him to avg and do you think he can be a top 8 forward?
i hope you are excited about the season starting soon. i read in one of your earlier post's about sam greys and your opinion in relation to being a good sc pick. It seems that he will be playing in the midfield. do you think he is a good starting pick? what do you expect him to avg and do you think he can be a top 8 forward?
Mudflap
I've lost all faith in value Rucks. The ones you list above, that you hope will be 95+ will probably be lucky to reach that level. The other ones you list will be lucky play enough games, or generate enough cash to make them worthwhile. I've resigned myself, that I'll have to start two of the Prem Rucks, so I'm looking at Martin/Gawn. I just can't come at Goldy at that price. As an aside, I wonder what price, all the people that are saying Goldy is a must start, would cause them to say "No. He's too expensive". $800,000? $1,000,000? There has to be a point where you say naaaahhhh, he just costs too much!
I've lost all faith in value Rucks. The ones you list above, that you hope will be 95+ will probably be lucky to reach that level. The other ones you list will be lucky play enough games, or generate enough cash to make them worthwhile. I've resigned myself, that I'll have to start two of the Prem Rucks, so I'm looking at Martin/Gawn. I just can't come at Goldy at that price. As an aside, I wonder what price, all the people that are saying Goldy is a must start, would cause them to say "No. He's too expensive". $800,000? $1,000,000? There has to be a point where you say naaaahhhh, he just costs too much!
To be fair, not much. Attending Centre Bounces is one thing, but it didn't translate into points. He only averaged 85 in the NAB off a 75% TOG. He only averaged 19 disposals during the NAB as well. He will be a player, but he has a lot against him this season.
I agree with jarrad_ on this one, it's not quite comparing apples with apples. We don't know where Steele is heading in his career, but we certainly should have known where Lumumba was at last season!
I agree with jarrad_ on this one, it's not quite comparing apples with apples. We don't know where Steele is heading in his career, but we certainly should have known where Lumumba was at last season!
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To be honest, it's not a question that interests me enough, to spend the hours and hours of work it would take to answer. It doesn't seem to have enough historical or statistical relevance to matter that much.
Here's a partial answer.
In 2015 665 players played at least one game. Here is how many from each Club that achieved it across the 2015 season.
Adelaide 11
Brisbane 9
Carlton 15
Collingwood 12
Essendon 18
Fremantle 14
Geelong 12
Gold Coast 16
GWS 13
Hawthorn 15
Melbourne 15
North 11
Port Adelaide 13
Richmond 10
St Kilda 11
Sydney 11
WC 10
W Bulldogs 17
That a total of 233 players, or 35% of all players that played a game in 2015.
Here's a partial answer.
In 2015 665 players played at least one game. Here is how many from each Club that achieved it across the 2015 season.
Adelaide 11
Brisbane 9
Carlton 15
Collingwood 12
Essendon 18
Fremantle 14
Geelong 12
Gold Coast 16
GWS 13
Hawthorn 15
Melbourne 15
North 11
Port Adelaide 13
Richmond 10
St Kilda 11
Sydney 11
WC 10
W Bulldogs 17
That a total of 233 players, or 35% of all players that played a game in 2015.
Hi Man1, RB.
Your sense is spot on. It is generally easier to get $200k growth out of a cheaper, $117k Rookie, than it is from a $200k Rookie. Yes there are Cripps types that do it, but remember, they need to average nearly 20/game higher to get the same growth. The effect is actually two-fold. Having more expensive Rookies slows the dollar generation a little, AND means you probably need to make one more upgrade than normal. Usually a pure G'n'R team will have 13 or if you are lucky, 14 Keeper/Prem types, without the value picks. If you are picking more expensive Rookies, this reduces to 12 or 13 Keeper/Prems. Double Whammy! You need more Cash, to make one more upgrade, and you are making your cash a little slower. The balancing act of upgrading as quick as you can, but making as much as you can on your Cows becomes even harder this year. I think it might be prudent to squeeze an extra week, and an extra $10-$20k out of your Cows, where possible. Compounding this, is the number of $270 - $370k players people are squeezing into their teams, in the hope of either alleviating the number of upgrades required, or at best making them a one rookie downgrade used to upgrade 2 Midprice picks (across two weeks outside of the byes, of course). I have a general rule of thumb, that value picks in your team need about a 60% success strike rate, or you have lost on them. Given it looks like most teams might struggle to reach the value growth we have seen in previous season, you might need a 70-75% strike rate on value picks this season! I can tell you, that is nearly impossible to achieve!
I think this years Winner will, apart from dodging the bad Premium picks, nail his Rookies by Round 3, and will in all likelihood nail around 3 value picks, that he got to use as season Keepers.
Your sense is spot on. It is generally easier to get $200k growth out of a cheaper, $117k Rookie, than it is from a $200k Rookie. Yes there are Cripps types that do it, but remember, they need to average nearly 20/game higher to get the same growth. The effect is actually two-fold. Having more expensive Rookies slows the dollar generation a little, AND means you probably need to make one more upgrade than normal. Usually a pure G'n'R team will have 13 or if you are lucky, 14 Keeper/Prem types, without the value picks. If you are picking more expensive Rookies, this reduces to 12 or 13 Keeper/Prems. Double Whammy! You need more Cash, to make one more upgrade, and you are making your cash a little slower. The balancing act of upgrading as quick as you can, but making as much as you can on your Cows becomes even harder this year. I think it might be prudent to squeeze an extra week, and an extra $10-$20k out of your Cows, where possible. Compounding this, is the number of $270 - $370k players people are squeezing into their teams, in the hope of either alleviating the number of upgrades required, or at best making them a one rookie downgrade used to upgrade 2 Midprice picks (across two weeks outside of the byes, of course). I have a general rule of thumb, that value picks in your team need about a 60% success strike rate, or you have lost on them. Given it looks like most teams might struggle to reach the value growth we have seen in previous season, you might need a 70-75% strike rate on value picks this season! I can tell you, that is nearly impossible to achieve!
I think this years Winner will, apart from dodging the bad Premium picks, nail his Rookies by Round 3, and will in all likelihood nail around 3 value picks, that he got to use as season Keepers.
Hey Slammer,
I can understand your concern with the aging Prems. They have to drop off sooner or later.
Firstly Gaff. Coming into he is 6th season, and has played 110 games. That usually means he has set his scoring patterns, outside of the potential to have a spike season somewhere. He's one of those players that can have 30 disposals, and score 100. I think he's a 100-105 player, but probably will throw in that one spike season of 110-112, just to confuse us. The hard part is picking when that will happen!
Cripps looks a superstar in the making. I just think it's asking too much, for what is nearly a 2nd year player, to become a 110+ player, in a poor team. There's not many seasoned players that can do it in a poor team, so an inexperienced player should find it even harder!
I'll go for:
Cripps 104 - 106
Rocky 108 - 110
though most are hoping/thinking Rocky might go higher.
I can understand your concern with the aging Prems. They have to drop off sooner or later.
Firstly Gaff. Coming into he is 6th season, and has played 110 games. That usually means he has set his scoring patterns, outside of the potential to have a spike season somewhere. He's one of those players that can have 30 disposals, and score 100. I think he's a 100-105 player, but probably will throw in that one spike season of 110-112, just to confuse us. The hard part is picking when that will happen!
Cripps looks a superstar in the making. I just think it's asking too much, for what is nearly a 2nd year player, to become a 110+ player, in a poor team. There's not many seasoned players that can do it in a poor team, so an inexperienced player should find it even harder!
I'll go for:
Cripps 104 - 106
Rocky 108 - 110
though most are hoping/thinking Rocky might go higher.
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Hey Suits, thanks for the kind words.
There can be a correlation between a good NAB, and a Break Out season. T Mcdonald is another case in point. The trick is to sort between the "real" role changes, and the practice match role changes. Lumumba would be an example of the opposite to what you are saying. Just on Viney, as a Melbourne supporter that pretty much saw every game last season, all be it on my lap top, and not live, I can tell you his role in the team evolved quite a lot in 2015. What you saw in the NAB's this season, is what he was doing at the end of 2015. Injuries aside, I would be amazed if he didn't hit 105+ in 2016, and in that case can fill a cheapish M7/8. He can potentially push it to 110, but i'd be surprised if he could go much over that, for a whole season....... this year! Tacklers seemed to be getting rewarded in the NAB's this season, and if that continues in the regular season, the likes of Viney, Rockliff, Robinson and Libba might do well, or at least get aided in keeping too many low scores away.
There can be a correlation between a good NAB, and a Break Out season. T Mcdonald is another case in point. The trick is to sort between the "real" role changes, and the practice match role changes. Lumumba would be an example of the opposite to what you are saying. Just on Viney, as a Melbourne supporter that pretty much saw every game last season, all be it on my lap top, and not live, I can tell you his role in the team evolved quite a lot in 2015. What you saw in the NAB's this season, is what he was doing at the end of 2015. Injuries aside, I would be amazed if he didn't hit 105+ in 2016, and in that case can fill a cheapish M7/8. He can potentially push it to 110, but i'd be surprised if he could go much over that, for a whole season....... this year! Tacklers seemed to be getting rewarded in the NAB's this season, and if that continues in the regular season, the likes of Viney, Rockliff, Robinson and Libba might do well, or at least get aided in keeping too many low scores away.
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