Hi Rowsus,
Posted this in the rucks, interested in your thoughts on Tippett/Sinclair post nab challenge, and the strategy in general:
Trying to work
Goldy R1
NicNat R2
Grimley R3
Tippett/Sinclair F3.
To justify Tippett/Sinclair, I think I need them to:
Finish top 6 Fwd, minus cost of a trade(s) in rucks,
and plus (their ruck score - minus fwd rookie score).
Apologies for the horrible maths!
If they can improve 10-15 ppg, I think they're solid picks. But can they?
Also, what do people think a trade is worth? (In cash and/or points)
Hi Diceman,
I was very keen on Tippett prior to the NAB, but have gone off him completely due to the NAB. He and Sinclair seemed to cut each other up, SC-wise, and to me it makes them hard to take. Bad NAB performances shouldn't put you off Prems you were/are keen on, but neither of those two qualify as Prems, so I feel I'm not really breaking a rule there.
I think you've over complicated your equation, on calculating their required performance.
Firstly, when your team is complete, it is unlikely you'd ever have the top 6 performing Fwds. Let's drop that down to say 10th-12th Fwd, rather than 6th, as that is more likely where your F6 might be, in a really good team.
Secondly, you are factoring in the cost of a trade. The inexplicable part of this equation is, would you trade Goldy/NicNat out, if you didn't have cover? I would think if say Goldy sprains an ankle, and misses two weeks, the majority of coaches with no cover will just eat the two week donut. If that's the case, the trade can't be factored into this equation.
Thirdly, you are using (their Ruck score - Fwd Rookie score). This is also incorrect. It is to be assumed if you have Tippett/Sinclair, that they are occupying F4/6 on your field, and as such, you already have their score in your weekly calculation. What you are looking at doing is:
Goldy to Ruck bench, Grimley to Fwd bench, Tippett/Sinclair to R2, F7 to F6. Assuming your F7 is a better scorer than Grimley. If he's not, the whole DPP part of the equation is moot. As you can see, as far as your scoring 22 players are concerned, it is Goldy out and F7 in. Tippett/Sinclair's score has no bearing on the value of the DPP cover, as they were in the 22 last week, and still in it this week.
The inexplicable part of the equation revisited for a moment. Say it was NicNat with a hamstring, and it was diagnosed as 4 to 6 weeks. Would you hold him, and take potentially 6 weeks of the F7 score, or would you trade him? Not many Coaches will take 6 weeks of F7, and would probably sideways NicNat out. You can see it can become problematical to ever factor in the trade. There are only a few circumstances where the DPP cover is saving you a trade, but potentially a number of scenarios during the season, where it is saving you a donut.
Now let's look at a more likely scenario. Goldy and NicNat never get medium to long term injuries, but miss a game here or there. Let's be generous, and say your F7 is woth 66 points/game. Everytime you use your DPP for Ruck cover, you are in effect adding 66/22 = 3 points/game to Tippett/Sinclair's average. If your F7 is only worth 55, then it is 2.5/game for each DPP Ruck cover. So now your equation looks something like this:
Tippett/Sinclair need to average: 10th - 12th best Fwd - (F7/22)*each DPP Ruck cover utilised.
Just for ease of calculation for you, here are the 10th - 12th rated Forwards averages for the last 3 seasons, using PIT60
2015: 97.4, 97.2, 91.0
2014: 97.7, 91.8, 89.8
2013: 96.8, 95.6, 94.9
Let's pluck a figure of 96 from that table, and assume you had to use the cover 3 times, and seeing as we used PIT60, let's say your F7 is worth 60/game. The equation now becomes:
Tippett/Sinclair need to average: 96 - (60/22)*3 = 87.8 to be a breakeven selection.
This of course doesn't factor in, will Tippett/Sinclair miss the same round as Goldy/NicNat, or did you have no playing Fwd bench when Goldy/NicNat missed? Either or both could reach your required 88 in this scenario, I'm just worried about them being there when you need them!
As to the value of a trade, that is full of conjecture too. A lot depends on the timing and exact use of the trade. I generally attach 200 points as a value when asked that question. A monetary value is harder to attach, but if pressed, I will say around $85k.
I hope all this has helped.
