Opinion Todd Goldstein $695,100 - Trust Or Trap?

[Jurn Stern]

Stick to the general Ruckman thread if you want to avoid Goldstein. There is too many people doing confirmatory research on this page and it's starting to work on me. Here is how I'm avoiding Goldstein this week.

I think everyone will agree that the ruck will be more contested that in 2015, and as you will see this will have an instant effect on Goldy's output. In 2015, Goldy went 1 out against the S.McKernan (221), Lobb (164) and a few other terrible ruck lineups. He is going to have people planning for him, planning to shark from him, planning to play him very closely. He's going to have less rotations, and an increased likelihood for sharing the ruck load. He is price at practically 700k, after a career best season, and is trying to do what history says will be incredibly difficult.

I think it's very optimistic to imaging Goldy averaging over 120. Now, everyone stop being Goldy lovers. I wanna see my Goldy haters hating.

 

[THCLT]

Entering his prime for ruckman with 5 solid seasons of history, not to mention his nice upward trends!

Agreed that it's unlikely to expect him to reproduce or even improve on last year's efforts and that he's overpriced for the expected output. However, I don't think it's unrealistic to expect a return of between 115-120 for the season which would make him one of the top 2 ruckman for the year. Breaking the recent history of a top 2 ruckman backing up the following year, but records are not set in concrete and there to be broken at some stage. If there's a ruckman I'm backing to buck those trend, then it's in Goldy I trust!

Sorry Jurn Stern...

Disclaimer: I'm a North supporter so there may be some bias in my comments and I take NO responsibility for those who chose to be swayed by them!

 

[Zim^zuM]

2011 P21 A113.2
2012 P20 A93.0 (H.McIntosh played first 7 Games averaging 22 HO)
2013 P22 A113.5
2014 P21 A106.9
2015 P21 A128.8

Just thought I'd add the only time he went below a 100 AVG McIntosh stole quite a considerable amount of points from Goldstein for 7 weeks. In those 7 weeks Goldstein averaged 51. He also scored a random 27 against Freo in round 22. So to end the season averaging 93 (After McIntosh got injured) is quite massive.

Not sure if north tried playing two rucks early to start 2014 but he only averaged 85.5 after the first 6, then was on fire for the rest of the season. So bar when McIntosh hindered him and the first 6 weeks of 2014 he has been a monster and theres no football reason out there to doubt or assume he wont repeat it and average closer to 120 than 110. So based on that if for some reason he does have a poor start ill cop the whack.

 

[Nathan]

2011 P21 A113.2
2012 P20 A93.0 (H.McIntosh played first 7 Games averaging 22 HO)
2013 P22 A113.5
2014 P21 A106.9
2015 P21 A128.8

Just thought I'd add the only time he went below a 100 AVG McIntosh stole quite a considerable amount of points from Goldstein for 7 weeks. In those 7 weeks Goldstein averaged 51. He also scored a random 27 against Freo in round 22. So to end the season averaging 93 (After McIntosh got injured) is quite massive.

Not sure if north tried playing two rucks early to start 2014 but he only averaged 85.5 after the first 6, then was on fire for the rest of the season. So bar when McIntosh hindered him and the first 6 weeks of 2014 he has been a monster and theres no football reason out there to doubt or assume he wont repeat it and average closer to 120 than 110. So based on that if for some reason he does have a poor start ill cop the whack.

Injured his arm RD 1 against Bombers in 2014.

 

[jaca]

All valid points jurn stern. The question for becomes: Who else?

I see 2 strategies:
- Pick a premo + e.g. Lobbe and upgrade Lobbe to Goldy at some stage
- Pick 2 alternative premos and avoid Goldy

This issue I'm faced with in both of the above scenarios (let's leave out what scores you may miss out one) is: how many trades are likely to be used over the course of the season? In scenario 1, it's at least 1.. but given history/news re: Mummy, Martin, Nic Nat et all neither options fill me with confidence. I think hoping that Lobbe becomes Goldy is pushing our luck. Goldy feels a more solid pick to stay there all season.

Jacobs provides a glimmer of stability, but a tough draw and Danger out of the picture concerns me here too.

He is ridiculously expensive though, so I hear your words of concern. Having said that, my current side contains the 5 top priced players.

 

[Zim^zuM]

. He is going to have people planning for him, planning to shark from him, planning to play him very closely. He's going to have less rotations, and an increased likelihood for sharing the ruck load. He is price at practically 700k, after a career best season, and is trying to do what history says will be incredibly difficult.

I think it's very optimistic to imaging Goldy averaging over 120. Now, everyone stop being Goldy lovers. I wanna see my Goldy haters hating.

why is round 1 different to round 13 and onwards last season?? Do teams say we will wait until next season to try stopping him? And let him go crazy for 10 weeks

 

[Goodie's Guns]

why is round 1 different to round 13 and onwards last season?? Do teams say we will wait until next season to try stopping him? And let him go crazy for 10 weeks

Yeah I was thinking the exact same thing hahaha. The AFL clubs have staff and coaches watching every single other team and their players week in week out, I'd be baffled to think that even one of the clubs last year didn't put significant time and planning (weeks ahead) into Goldstein and ways to stop him. yes they may have had more time to plan and get better plans to go up against him this year, but it's not like Goldy won't have been planning and adjusting his game to cope with potential extra attention and different tactics and setups against him.

 

[Rowsus]

Is there a rule against 3rd man up? Alot of his hit outs were third man up last year if its a rule they didnt enforce it

There is no rule about the 3rd man up, but Umpires might start to, on occasions, deem that the Ruckman had no intention of contesting the ball, and was just clearing a path for the 3rd man. In this case it is the Ruckman that will have a free paid against him, and not the 3rd man. As I am Cursed alluded to, there is no doubt that was the Ruckman's intentions many times in 2015.

 

[Jurn Stern]

why is round 1 different to round 13 and onwards last season?? Do teams say we will wait until next season to try stopping him? And let him go crazy for 10 weeks

Just trying to add as many doubts as possible so I don't pick him.

 

[Courtesans]

My final word..maybe, he just cost too much. Is a bad buy.

 

[Prochard]

Initial thought: No chance at that price.
However, given North Melbourne's heavy lopsided draw towards the first half of the season, I think if either start him or upgrade to him early.

 

[Bones]

My final word..maybe, he just cost too much. Is a bad buy.

LOL - maybe - until you think about his penchant for mega scores with a 'c' on him

 

[AngryAnt]

Goldstein's 44 against Sandi came on the back of him being quite ill the day before and he probably shouldn't have even played.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Goldstein's 44 against Sandi came on the back of him being quite ill the day before and he probably shouldn't have even played.

Interesting. I hadn't realized that.

 

[Misky]

Goldstein's 44 against Sandi came on the back of him being quite ill the day before and he probably shouldn't have even played.

So that mean's he's slightly underpriced then

 

[Darkie]

Goldstein's 44 against Sandi came on the back of him being quite ill the day before and he probably shouldn't have even played.

Interesting. I hadn't realized that.

So that mean's he's slightly underpriced then

AngryAnt's info was news to me too, although it's worth noting that Goldy also scored 69 against Sandi in 2014, while in 2012 he scored 27.

 

[anfa18]

AngryAnt's info was news to me too, although it's worth noting that Goldy also scored 69 against Sandi in 2014, while in 2012 he scored 27.

He also scored 104 in 2013 and 116 in 2015 against Freo...

 

[Zim^zuM]

I hope he has a poor nab cup and ppl go off him

 

[meataxe]

I have gone with goldstein.

Martin and Gawn don't have proven durability, and there is likely no bench coverage.

Niknat has only averaged above 105 once I think?

Figure that at worst he goes 110-115, with the bonus of 21-22 games. At best he is 125+ again and teams that don't start with him will have to waste a trade sideways to get him.

 

[Johnsy44]

I have gone with goldstein.

Martin and Gawn don't have proven durability, and there is likely no bench coverage.

Niknat has only averaged above 105 once I think?

Figure that at worst he goes 110-115, with the bonus of 21-22 games. At best he is 125+ again and teams that don't start with him will have to waste a trade sideways to get him.

Agreed, can I ask who your r2 is?