Opinion Bolters - Past and Present

[Bomber18]

Amazing tables THCLT and great work starting this thread anfa.

What stands out is that it will be very difficult for JJ to maintain even a 100+ average as a half back rebounding defender.

From that list the rebounding half backs I can identify are B.Smith (2015), Docherty (2015), Murphy (2014), Birchall (2013), Waters (2013). None of these guys even managed a 90+ average, the best around ~85 from R3 onwards.
The rest ie: D.Swallow, Heppell, Hanley, etc are midfielders who were classed as backs or KPD ie: Tom McDonald, Rance so I think a comparison to JJ is unfair.

The main successful half back from 2015 who probably didn't make the 'bolter' cutoff would be Rory Laird who averaged 102.5 | 66.6* | 96 (per above columns) for a season average of 93. He averaged 91.8 from Round 3 onwards.

All the statistics considered, it seems JJ is more likely to average around 90-92 at best from Round 3 and therefore isn't really worth a sideways premium swap now. He's still a worthy upgrade target option down the track if he continued averaging 90+.
The worst case scenario could be that he averages 95 from R3 (which I think is unlikely for a HB), but even then at upgrade season (R6-7) he'd be at around 475k with a 5 round average of 95, which is only $57k from what he is priced at now. Probably not missing out on that much when he's more likely to be going at 90-92 considering the averages historically of half backs and the competition he would face from Boyd and Bob Murphy for that same role.

On the flip side, it seems the forwards who breakout are more likely to sustain their averages. Especially the forwards who are midfielders classified as forwards such Dahlhaus, Bontempelli from last season. Both were able to sustain 100+. Makes the likes of Hall and Merrett a lot more appealing as sideswap options if you're confident they can continue the 100 average.

I missed Hall so I'm definitely getting him in this week. I liked Merrett too in the preseason but was scared off by the uncertainty of Essendon, but he'll be one of my first upgrade targets. JJ one I'll monitor too as an upgrade target but there's no way I'm sidewaysing to get him in (even if Bartel to JJ is very tempting). I bet anyone who got B.Smith last year in R3 can never forget those burn stains

 

[Mr_Arrogance]

The worst case scenario could be that he averages 95 from R3 (which I think is unlikely for a HB), but even then at upgrade season (R6-7) he'd be at around 475k with a 5 round average of 95, which is only $57k from what he is priced at now. Probably not missing out on that much when he's more likely to be going at 90-92 considering the averages historically of half backs and the competition he would face from Boyd and Bob Murphy for that same role.

I havent checked but if these numbers stack up it has made my decision much easier for me. If he averages 95 i would only have to pay 57k more with more games to assess if he will be a keeper and can just trade him in as a keeper from a rookie.

He plays Hawthorn this week so if by chance he only scores 60-70 it will stall his price rise considerably, If he continues to score 100 every week until round 7 then I was wrong and will have missed the boat well and truly

 

[Santoz]

Any reverse bolters (don't want to derail thread) but any proven guns who started slow and ended up repaying the faith (Jelwood is one i'm sure). And further to that, any premos who started slow and continued to spud it up?

Rockliff would be in that category for mine.

Check out his scores from 2013-15 from beginning of year to end.

 

[Santoz]

Amazing tables THCLT and great work starting this thread anfa.

What stands out is that it will be very difficult for JJ to maintain even a 100+ average as a half back rebounding defender.

I thought he was playing on a wing?

 

[Bomber18]

I thought he was playing on a wing?

Looking at his heatmap, i think it suggests he plays at half back but pushes up (which you would expect from two big wins).

 

[Bomber18]

I havent checked but if these numbers stack up it has made my decision much easier for me. If he averages 95 i would only have to pay 57k more with more games to assess if he will be a keeper and can just trade him in as a keeper from a rookie.

He plays Hawthorn this week so if by chance he only scores 60-70 it will stall his price rise considerably, If he continues to score 100 every week until round 7 then I was wrong and will have missed the boat well and truly

I've just inputted numbers assuming he scores an even 95 for 5 weeks (so not taking into account fluctuations ie: 120, 70 type scores). If he does that in the next 5 weeks he'll be at 475k. He could average 95 from 5 rounds but from a different set of numbers which would give a different price. If he scores 78, 120, 120, 78, 78 that will still be around 480k.
Worst case is if he keeps going at a 120 average early he'll go north of 500k but statistics on HB rebounders suggest he'll eventually have a poor game to bring his price down. I think the 'missed the boat on him' comment probably is true for him. Those who started him are now ranked quite highly, those who didn't probably need to find another boat to catch up on when JJ has his down games.

 

[Kumamoto Ken]

Those who started him are now ranked quite highly

How I wish that were true!

 

[Feerits Elf]

I think the 'missed the boat on him' comment probably is true for him. Those who started him are now ranked quite highly, those who didn't probably need to find another boat to catch up on when JJ has his down games.

Option 3: bring him in this week at $418k
Option 4: win SuperCoach without him

 

[Bomber18]

How I wish that were true!

You're still twice as good as where I am. *sigh*

 

[Bomber18]

Option 3: bring him in this week at $418k
Option 4: win SuperCoach without him

You're forgetting Option 5: upgrade to him when he's at 475k. I'd do it if he had a 5 game average of 95.

 

[Feerits Elf]

You're forgetting Option 5: upgrade to him when he's at 475k. I'd do it if he had a 5 game average of 95.

No, you already cited that in your post. That's Option 2.

 

[Bomber18]

No, you already cited that in your post. That's Option 2.

Ahh my bad, got your thinking now (Y).

 

[Presto]

Option 3: bring him in this week at $418k
Option 4: win SuperCoach without him

Any of options 1,2,and 3 combined with 4 for me

 

[aj74]

Seeing Parker listed as a bolter isn't too flash. I'm looking at moving Rockliff to him.

I think Parker will be one of the top mids by the end of the year, if not top 10 then not too far out of it. Watching him play, he is a contested ball beast and an absolute maniac at the ball. Reminds me a lot of Fyfe. Coming into his prime at 23 years old, 10 of his last 13 completed games last year resulted in tonnes. He's started brightly enough - I could see him going at 110 - 115 this year

So his 138 ppg opening would mean 107 for his remaining games to average 110 and 112 if he is to average 115. For 535k or whatever, that's adequate return. Assuming a 110 - 115 average, he has had one big score in round 1 and an average score in round 2 so I have only missed 1 huge one.

 

[jaca]

fwiw, Freako tweeted today: "Centre bounce attendance numbers show that Parker has overtaken Hanners in there, attending 74% to his 37%"

 

[anfa18]

Seeing Parker listed as a bolter isn't too flash. I'm looking at moving Rockliff to him.

I think Parker will be one of the top mids by the end of the year, if not top 10 then not too far out of it. Watching him play, he is a contested ball beast and an absolute maniac at the ball. Reminds me a lot of Fyfe. Coming into his prime at 23 years old, 10 of his last 13 completed games last year resulted in tonnes. He's started brightly enough - I could see him going at 110 - 115 this year

So his 138 ppg opening would mean 107 for his remaining games to average 110 and 112 if he is to average 115. For 535k or whatever, that's adequate return. Assuming a 110 - 115 average, he has had one big score in round 1 and an average score in round 2 so I have only missed 1 huge one.

To play devils advocate. In the first two games he has been their biggest contested ball winner, however in the past 2-3 seasons i think the Swans biggest contested ball winner has been JPK. JPK's overall numbers have been slightly down in the first 2 games and in close games i would expect him to take charge. Although you would have only missed 1 huge score, you would have missed 2 scores above the 110-115 predicted average. Also remember that his scores have come in wins of 80 and 60 points, possibly 2 of the Swans biggest wins of the year. While it's not necessarily a factor in his 2 scores, it probably helps that the Swans dominated, they had 50-100 more possessions and 20-30 more inside 50s in those wins. The Swans first tests will come in rounds 4 and 5 when they play Adelaide (away) and West Coast (home).

 

[MC's Mix]

You're forgetting Option 5: upgrade to him when he's at 475k. I'd do it if he had a 5 game average of 95.

Odds are that H Shaw/Rance etc could also be at a similar price by then, and I know who i'd choose of the two.

 

[Bomber18]

Odds are that H Shaw/Rance etc could also be at a similar price by then, and I know who i'd choose of the two.

Great point this! Add in McVeigh as well.

 

[Cattleherder]

Thanks for a great thread Anfa18 and other contributers. It shows that most bolters inevitably regress to their mean and we shouldn't get carried away with early form.

 

[aj74]

fwiw, Freako tweeted today: "Centre bounce attendance numbers show that Parker has overtaken Hanners in there, attending 74% to his 37%"

Yeah Hanners missed a chunk of the game against the Pies with concussion after the Sidebottom hit. I wouldn't be surprised if they held him back a little last week as a precaution, thinking they should be able to sort out the Blues midfield easilly enough.

To play devils advocate. In the first two games he has been their biggest contested ball winner, however in the past 2-3 seasons i think the Swans biggest contested ball winner has been JPK. JPK's overall numbers have been slightly down in the first 2 games and in close games i would expect him to take charge. Although you would have only missed 1 huge score, you would have missed 2 scores above the 110-115 predicted average. Also remember that his scores have come in wins of 80 and 60 points, possibly 2 of the Swans biggest wins of the year. While it's not necessarily a factor in his 2 scores, it probably helps that the Swans dominated, they had 50-100 more possessions and 20-30 more inside 50s in those wins. The Swans first tests will come in rounds 4 and 5 when they play Adelaide (away) and West Coast (home).

Yeah I really don't watch enough Swans footy to tell what's going on with JPK. Only had him late season a couple of times and was underwhelmed IIRC. Thought he was one of the faster starting premiums and tended to trap people chasing him later in the year. How old is he these days? He could easily take points from Parker if he hits form

Yeah 116 is above the range of 110 - 115 true but not enough to be material. I'll call it average

I think also that with players like Parker, saying "he scores better in wins" is putting the cart before the horse. As one of their prime movers, it is probably fairer to say that when he plays well, the Swans win. This of course means that opposition will start putitng more work into him. But considering Hannebery, JPK and even Jack, how much time can the oppo put into Parker?

Yep. Adelaide away will be a tough ask, with the Crows and their fans on the up. WCE at home should go the Swans way. In fact hey, I'm a little concerned about this weekend vs the Giants. But after all that, they have Brisbane, Essendon and Richmond and if the Tiges don't pull the finger out quickly they could be a rabble by that stage. His final month reads Port in Sydney, Saints (Etihad), North (Hobart), Richmond (SCG)

He is a massive injury risk with the way he plays too...