Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Suits · 5 Apr 2016

Hi Rowsus, hope you are well.

I recognise how difficult this may be to quantify, and am aware you may have attempted this before, but if you were to put a monetary value on a trade, what would it be? I'm trying to work out whether a downgrade of Mills to Papley (which I predict in the long-run to earn me $66k more than I would have had with Mills) is worth it, I'm doubting that it is.

Secondly, are you able to place a point value to a trade? Ie is doing a certain trade justified if you predict it will earn you 250 points, for example.

Thanks very much!

MC's Mix · 5 Apr 2016

Hey Rowsus,

Just after an opinion on my trade thoughts for this week. I'm currently behind the 8-ball in terms of overall, sitting around the 40k mark (around 400-500 points behind the pack). Generally I conserve trades and play the long game to catch up on the leaders, allowing myself a few trades early to remedy my rookies etc.

My current situation is that my rookies are solid, with only Gresham and Ellis below-par. Papley is the only rookie i'm keen to bring in, most likely at the expense of Gresh. My other concerns are Rocky, Barlow, JPK and Yeo. I'm happy to keep the faith with Barlow, Yeo and JPK, however I think Rocky needs to go.

Gresham/Ellis --> Papley (via DPP)
Rocky --> Any mid 624k or below. (*Gresham)

Currently tossing up between Ablett & Libba. I initially thought Libba wouldn't be back to his best until mid-season, though his start has me thinking he might be a cheap keeper. Ablett on the other hand I didn't pick because I didn't trust his body to last 22 games, though he'd be a nice captain option at this stage...
So, do I stick to my guns and forget about Libba/GAJ and pick a POD or do I suck the proverbial egg and go for it? Is Libba a must-have? Papley?

Sorry for rambling!

Rowsus · 5 Apr 2016

dicksilverman said:

Hi ****,
holding fire makes perfect sense. It's really dangerous to drastically alter our expectations on a player (either up or down!) on the back of less than 5 or 6 games data. Sometimes we are sort of forced into doing it with less, but I'm not sure that description applies here. We set a range for our players when we choose them. Some do it consciously, some do it sub-consciously, but we do it. My range on Barlow looked something like: highside 22/107 and my lowside was 17/85, with a reasonable expectation of 20/97. Even if he is heading to our lower limit, he will be 15/88 from here. Now, while that is disappointing, it's not a disaster, and it's our worst case scenario. If we downgrade our reasonable expectation to 20/93, he is looking at 18/96 from here. Perfectly acceptable! People shift their expectations too far, too early. Sometimes it works out for them, other times it's a problem. Now, given the scarcity of trades late in the season, shouldn't the idea be, that we err on the side of caution? What would be the bigger mistake? Keeping Barlow, and he stinks it up, or trading Barlow, and he ends up with something like 20/96? Given the second option involves both using a trade, and taking a risk on, that whoever you trade in doing any better, the bigger mistake would appear to be trading Barlow out.
The Rocky/Libba problem is similar, but not exactly the same. You obviously thought Libba wouldn't reach Keeper status, because you didn't select him. Is it fair to totally reassess that, on the back of two very easy wins? Some will say it's now or never, but I think there is often more reward in sticking to your guns/opinion. Would he be a bad pick? Probably not. Is he worth a trade from here? The jury is still out on that one. Your idea to counter it by a good upgrade is not a bad one.
I think Gresham to Papley, via Kerridge, is probably your best move this week.
Good luck, whichever way you jump!

Rowsus · 5 Apr 2016

Eagling said:

Hey Eagling,
given you have 9 of the top 11 Rookies, as far B/E's go, Kennedy is missable, if you decided to go that route. I myself started without Rocky, as I was concerned at how easy/often he has been getting injured. If your concerns have reached a similar level, then Rocky to Kennedy is an acceptable path, if you can't find another Keeper you have strong confidence in, in that price range. If your concerns aren't that high, I'd hang onto him, and forego Kennedy. I don't like the idea of trading Rocky out, with the idea of trading him back in. The difference between your selling price, and your buying price won't be big enough to warrant it. My thoughts are, you either have a big enough opinion of him to ride this out, or you quit him, and forget him. Last season showed us several times, the danger of trading back in, players we had already traded out.
In the trading scenario you painted, I would keep Hewett, and trade Dunkley, but not for the reasons you stated. Decisions on rookies should be made from a dollar, and not a point basis. In your scenario both Rookies have about $40k to make before topping out, given the info at hand. The higher averaging Rookie is more likely to post 100+ score, and reignite his growth (as well as potentially give you better coverage.) If you have to choose between 2 Rookies, and everything else seems equal, keep the one that seems more likely to re-ignite his growth.

Rowsus · 5 Apr 2016

MrMurdoch said:

Hi MrM,
I wasn't completely bullish on him, in fact he was pretty much the last picked in my team! Likely top 10 Def?..... probably not, top 15 or 18 I would more say. I did say I liked him more than Yeo, and would benefit more than Yeo with the return of the bigger Defs. One thing I like about McG, is he can score wellish with few touches. That's a bonus! Gresham for Papley seems an easy choice. As to your other trade, I'd just advise on erring on the side of caution.

Rowsus · 5 Apr 2016

Zoku Pops said:

chels said:

Hey ZP, I'm well thanks, and hope you are too.
I'd definitely spend the $26k to get Mitchell over Parker. As chels points out, history says he will beat Parker, and that's all we have to base our decisions on here. Yes, there is some implied risk with Syd Mids, but I think it's an acceptable risk.

Rowsus · 5 Apr 2016

Suits said:

Hi Suits, I'm well, and hope you are too.
Yes, it is a question that has been answered 3 or 4 times in this thread, but I don't expect you to hunt through nearly 6,000 posts to find them.
The value varies depending on round and circumstance. In rough approximate figures: trade = 200 points or $85k.

Rowsus · 5 Apr 2016

MC's Mix said:

Hey MC's Mix,
I wouldn't declare either of Libba or Papsley as must haves, but certainly the teams that have both look better than most teams that don't....... for now, anyway! My thinking is, it is too early to fully assess Libba yet, as they haven't had a tough game. Of course, it's nearly now or never, if you think you want him. My gut feel is, not having Ablett is potentially more damaging than not having Libba. Especially given the Captain value he can deliver. If you decide to trade Rocky out, I'd go Ablett.

Rowsus · 5 Apr 2016

For those posting questions in here the next 2 days, please keep in mind I will be travelling most of the time until Thursday morning, so getting answers may be delayed a bit.

dicksilverman · 5 Apr 2016

Thanks Rowsus, great wisdom as usual. Travel safely!!!

Eagling · 5 Apr 2016

Rowsus said:

Hey Eagling,
given you have 9 of the top 11 Rookies, as far B/E's go, Kennedy is missable, if you decided to go that route. I myself started without Rocky, as I was concerned at how easy/often he has been getting injured. If your concerns have reached a similar level, then Rocky to Kennedy is an acceptable path, if you can't find another Keeper you have strong confidence in, in that price range. If your concerns aren't that high, I'd hang onto him, and forego Kennedy. I don't like the idea of trading Rocky out, with the idea of trading him back in. The difference between your selling price, and your buying price won't be big enough to warrant it. My thoughts are, you either have a big enough opinion of him to ride this out, or you quit him, and forget him. Last season showed us several times, the danger of trading back in, players we had already traded out.
In the trading scenario you painted, I would keep Hewett, and trade Dunkley, but not for the reasons you stated. Decisions on rookies should be made from a dollar, and not a point basis. In your scenario both Rookies have about $40k to make before topping out, given the info at hand. The higher averaging Rookie is more likely to post 100+ score, and reignite his growth (as well as potentially give you better coverage.) If you have to choose between 2 Rookies, and everything else seems equal, keep the one that seems more likely to re-ignite his growth.

Sorry, Rowsus, unfortunately, I must spread some reputation around before giving some to you.

Thanks for answering my question; I thought Ben Kennedy might be a must-have, but if he isn't, I'm happy to keep Rockliff. In fact, going into round 4 with all my trades remaining sounds like a very palatable thought.

Slammer · 6 Apr 2016

Hey Rowsus,

Do you think Rocky should go?
Now confirmed out for two weeks minimum with niggling calf injury I am thinking he should go.
I am thinking of giving Barlow another chance and hope Ross plays him in the middle this week.
However Rocky is puzzling me.
Was thinking Gresham to Papley (via Menadue) and Rocky to Libba + approx $260k which seems logical for me.
Or Option 2 Gresham to Papley and Rocky to R. Gray
Only concern is do u think Libba will continue? Up against Hawks this week!

Juzzo · 6 Apr 2016

Hi Row,

In the same boat as a lot of people here.
Only rookie I might need is Papley.
Only rookie I could get rid of is Dunkley.
Have Barlow and Rocky but will keep both.
Have Crouch and Ah Chee, and no Libba.
Really want to give Ah Chee another week.

My thinking is either Dunkley (dropped or not?) to Papley or not worry with Papley and do no trades.

Your thoughts appreciated.

Prochard · 6 Apr 2016

Hey Rowsus,
What do you think about Andrew Gaff going over 90.5 against fremantle at $1.87 this week?

Aenimist · 6 Apr 2016

Row,

How do you see Callum Mills's scoring trajectory? As much of a gun as he is (and equally assured a place in that Sydney lineup), if he keeps scoring 70s then I question his cash generating success given his starting price.

I know you don't have a crystal ball that predicts players scores, but I am seriously considering downgrading he or Oliver to Papley. Is this folly?

Maso · 6 Apr 2016

Hey Rowsus , i have bit of different question then normal

Im from the sticks and was wondering if a guy is a having a few beers lets say 8-12 and there schooners, at a inner city bar in melbourne with a bunch of supercoach brethren what would be a acceptable monetary amount one would need to enjoy a evening like this ? im sure there is a few variances and unforeseen costs involved but was hoping you may have a formula, spreadsheet or analysis that could help

P.S
also is there any chance i will have trades left for finals in 2016

jaca · 6 Apr 2016

You'll need more money than you'll have trades left!

Creeker · 6 Apr 2016

Maso said:

Hope I can shed some light on your situation while the great man is currently in the air.
With regards to the funds situation, it all depends who you are in a shout with. If drinking with Jay, IDIG, Rowsus, Phil, Thanh, PC and of course Ben. Bring plenty, these guys are known party animals who go pretty hard. If in a shout with blokes like myself, you wont need that much. I'm known for my responsible drinking and only enjoy the odd sip.
As for your trade question, I'd say it will be the same response as last year. No hope my friend.
Hope this helps ol mate.

THCLT · 6 Apr 2016

Creeker said:

Hahahahahaha...I'd like to see that!

Creeker · 6 Apr 2016

THCLT said:

Hmmm, you may have me on a slight technicality there mate.

Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Suits

Draftee

MC's Mix

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

dicksilverman

Eagling

Slammer

Juzzo

Prochard

Aenimist

Maso

jaca

Creeker

THCLT

BBL|05 Winner

Creeker