Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus

Just wondering what you think of McGovern now?
I have McGovern, Lonergan and Z.Smith to think about with some cash in bank.
Is McGovern playing more shutdown roles?? Really thought he would go ok this year but he is losing cash for us fast.
Do I persevere with him or turn him into a Docherty or Simpson this week or wait for Heater next week and see if he can bounce back.
He might see a bit of the ball this week against North.
Lonergan I think I will hold for another week at least. He has been playing ok without starring.
I have Weitering and Adams both helping my scores down back atm.
Lastly Zac Smith. I can with one trade (just) turn him into Goldy this week. If of course I don't touch backline.
But that would mean I use all my cash. I would then have to wait for rookies to hopefully make more cash for me.
Any thoughts?
Hey Slammer,
McG is a bit of a concern, and he's certainly not taking the interecept Marks I was hoping for. I too, will probably hold Lonergan, and fix McG this week. When fixing a player like McG, I think you either have to take him all the way down, or upgrade him. I think sideways Trading them to another "hopeful" value pick is only asking for trouble. Initially I was tossing up between Dea and Weitering, even though neither is palatable at the price. This leaves me with the other unpalatable solution of trading him down to Ruggles, before he hits his bubble. In your case, Heater has a B/E of 137, and McG a B/E of 94, so if you wait a week, you are betting that McG will score within 43 points of Heater, otherwise the price gap will increase. It's not outside the realms of possibility, that Heater goes 130, McG 60, and suddenly they are $12k further apart. I think you should get on the front foot, and go to Docherty (over Simpson). His role looks a lot more SC-friendly under the new team structure, and game plan.
As to whether you do Goldy instead, that's a bit sideways for me. Which Ruck do you take out? NicNat? Gawn? I know Goldy has a perceived magic run coming up, especially with Sandi now out of the Picture, but to burn a trade and dollars on that now really looks like you are chasing that 172!
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus,
I currently have the ruck setup of Martin and Gawn,
Both performing solidly, especially Gawn. I already had the plan of upgrading gawn to goldy around round 6-7, but looks like that plan needs to be executed earlier. However, now im not even sure if it should be Gawn who should be upgraded.
My question is:
Should I bring in Goldstein now?
If so, who for?


Cheers
Hey Pro,
go the distance. I know Goldy doesn't have to face Sandi now, but I would stick to your plan. Waiting will also give you a better idea of which one should go, to get Goldy in too.

In the same boat and very interested to hear Rowsus's thoughts. For what it's worth I'm leaning towards the comforting 'do nothing' approach. I picked Martin as the best bet (after Goldstein) to average 110+, and Gawn as the best value option to improve and stick within 15 points of Goldy's average, which I figured was the benchmark to be about even with Goldy owners given the price difference. (I know the money for points is a much bigger difference but that's the number I came up when mulling my last couple of selections). Obviously I hoped a hard opening draw for Goldy might coincide with a few big scores for Gawn and the stars would align to sideways easily before his RD6 game against WBD. Goldy's RD3 score is a bit of a disaster scenario but don't think enough has changed for me to abandon my thinking just yet.
Spot on. If you are contemplating a risky sideways trade like this, particularly this early in the season, you want to be confident it is right. If you are ummmming and aaahing as to which one to "upgrade", or whether you should even do it at all, the best thing to do, is to do nothing!
 

Rowsus

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Hey Mate enjoy reading through some of your questions and the way you look at things for analysis. This is my first question/post on the site. Currently sitting ranked around the 2400 mark and used 2 trades thus far. My current team is

DEF - Houli, Laird, D.Rich, Weitering, Tipungwuti, Adams, m. Brown, M. Hartey

MIDS - Ablett, Danger, Selwood, Fyfe, T.Mitchell, Liberatore, S.Kerridge, C.Mills, R.Davis, C.Menadue, G.Hewitt

RUCKS, - Goldy, Nic Nat, - T.Read

FWDS - A. Hall, Wells, Dusty, Kennedy, Papley, T.Greene, L.McCarthy, W. Millera

The main problem as I see my team thus far is T. Greene sitting in the forward line and although he's seems to be getting his share of midfield time he's scoring has been disappointing. I can see him improving slightly from here but figure hell be inconsistent with the odd hundred mixed in with a range of poor scoors. I only have 30K in bank at moment and am not keen on any of the sub 460K forwards as a swap. Have considered a Greene- Johannisen swap but not really sold on that either or any of the other defenders that I can afford.
What do you think of trading Greene- Parish/Oliver both who I passed up on pre-season because of price . Obviously they have already seen one price rise but id still pocket around 170k. Or do you believe this is actually a backwards move and I should hold Greene until I have the cash to upgrade him to a premium forward when the next chunk of cash comes my way?
Hi FGD, welcome aboard. :)
Greene's B/E is only 81, so holding him isn't too big of a risk. If you do decide to trade, I would go down, as you can't reach any player you like going up. I don't like the Parish/Oliver option, as getting on expensive Rookies after they have already had a price rise is not very efficient. Remember, a Rookie's first job is to make Cash, and his second job is to score points. In your position, I would probably hold Greene. If you are forced to trade, bring Brown down to your Fwd line, and get Hartley, or if you like taking risks, Ruggles.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way.
 

Rowsus

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Most likely been discussed before, so if someone could point me in the right direction... What do Nat Fyfe's scores look like with and w/out Sandilands?
In 2015 Sandi played every game that Fyfe played.
In 2014 Sandi missed Rnd 18, and Fyfe scored 102 (season average 122)
In 2013 the Rounds where Sandi played over 10% TOG were: 15, 16, 18, 19, 20, 23. Fyfe didn't play Rnd 23, and he averaged 113 in the other 5 matches, against a season average 107.
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus!
My question is, could you compile a table of players who went on runs of 8 rounds where they averaged a lot higher than their seasonal average? (maybe limit it to 2009 onwards) Could you include the year and their age please?

Mainly interested in looking at Mids & Fwds who averaged 125+ for 8 rounds but had seasonal averages under 120. Defenders that went 120+ for 8 rounds are of interest too (ie: maybe Hodge last year).
In past years, my better years came when I identified that player who was about to go on a massive run. ie: O'keefe in 2009, NDS in 2011 (man I loved him), Rocky & Griffen in 2013. It might be of help to identify who could do something similar this season.

Might be a time consuming task, but would appreciate your efforts when you get a chance (presumably when you're back from aus! Hope you enjoy your trip).
Hey B18,
not something I have in my history of stats, and therefore would take me too long to compile.
Sorry. :(
I don't often knock back requests, but I can see that taking a good 10-12 hours of work, and I'm not sure it would actually help identify who might do it this season. ergo - the workload to reward doesn't seem to justify it.
Once again, sorry :( I don't like knocking back requests. :(
 

Bomber18

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Hey B18,
not something I have in my history of stats, and therefore would take me too long to compile.
Sorry. :(
I don't often knock back requests, but I can see that taking a good 10-12 hours of work, and I'm not sure it would actually help identify who might do it this season. ergo - the workload to reward doesn't seem to justify it.
Once again, sorry :( I don't like knocking back requests. :(
Hey Rowsus,
No worries at all! I had a feeling it might be quite a mammoth task too so completely understandable.
I'll continue my search for that magic mid season bolter who can save my ranking :p
Have a great time in Aus!
B18
 
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Yo Rowsus.

If you were to trade out one of Sheridan and Lonergan, which one would it be?

I will buy you a beer in thanks ;)
 
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Hey Slammer,
McG is a bit of a concern, and he's certainly not taking the interecept Marks I was hoping for. I too, will probably hold Lonergan, and fix McG this week. When fixing a player like McG, I think you either have to take him all the way down, or upgrade him. I think sideways Trading them to another "hopeful" value pick is only asking for trouble. Initially I was tossing up between Dea and Weitering, even though neither is palatable at the price. This leaves me with the other unpalatable solution of trading him down to Ruggles, before he hits his bubble. In your case, Heater has a B/E of 137, and McG a B/E of 94, so if you wait a week, you are betting that McG will score within 43 points of Heater, otherwise the price gap will increase. It's not outside the realms of possibility, that Heater goes 130, McG 60, and suddenly they are $12k further apart. I think you should get on the front foot, and go to Docherty (over Simpson). His role looks a lot more SC-friendly under the new team structure, and game plan.
As to whether you do Goldy instead, that's a bit sideways for me. Which Ruck do you take out? NicNat? Gawn? I know Goldy has a perceived magic run coming up, especially with Sandi now out of the Picture, but to burn a trade and dollars on that now really looks like you are chasing that 172!
Cheers Rowsus


I have Zac Smith as R2 not Nic Nac
So it would Smith up to Goldy
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

Looking at my current team my M8 is between Hewett (that 19 will slow his $$) and Davis avg 51 on bench. Ive got Gresh who needs to be traded out, as he wont get back in i think. Ive got Keays who deserves a game as killing it in the 2nds.

Im thinking of spending $110k upgrading Gresh to Parish avg 22d 6.8 tackles, avg 83 as i see him like Cripps in that he is getting plenty mid time and has shown consistency, wont lose mid role. I get 30ppg on Davis as m8 and those stats of Parish are on par with Bartel or even Parkers 2nd year. KK, Birchall, Simpson only avg 22-23d last few years, if they were $260k youd jump at.

However i will need another trade later on. I understand that he wont avg 105+ (i read your Libba analysis)

a) I missed the Parish-train keep the $110k
b) Dont waste the trade wait for Keays, Petracca, Freeman, Trengrove to move Gresh on
c) He is still value at $260k considering his stats, opportunity at ESS

Just hoping for some analysis from you on this cheers

PS - Trying to muster a few of our SC league to catch up for a drink to this weekend with you lads
Hi Salty,
it's a somewhat unconventional team you have there (not that there's anything wrong with that). Having Keays/Gresham at M10/11, forcing Hewett/Davis to M8/9 (M Crouch M7, for those playing along at home), potentially problematical. The biggest problem is if TWO selection dramas hit in the one week, which can happen. I'm not a big fan of bringing in high priced Rookies after a price rise, and it seems you have enough players in this sort of price range. I think you either hold for this week, and see what happens, or go Gresham to Hartley/Ruggles (little risky) or possibly Short. It leaves more of your Cash free, and they potentially grow as much (or even more!) than Parish from here anyway. If you are convinced Parish is an 80+ player, it may not be too late to grab him, but I think you should take Gresham down, if you trade him out.

Cheers!!

Also Rowsus dont worry about my Parish question i read Klo30 midprice madness article since and will stay away from the trade i was contemplating.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way. :)
 

Rowsus

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Yo Rowsus.

If you were to trade out one of Sheridan and Lonergan, which one would it be?

I will buy you a beer in thanks ;)
Sheridan. I have to admit my bias here. After having Sheridan in my team for months of the pre-season, I didn't start him. Lonergan seems more likely to play a Mid role than Sheridan, and he's had one excuse game, one bad game, and doesn't have the Lyon factor to deal with.
Schooner of Carlton it is! ;)
 

Rowsus

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Cheers Rowsus


I have Zac Smith as R2 not Nic Nac
So it would Smith up to Goldy
ahhhhh, I must have looked up the wrong "Just Kreuzing".
That makes more sense, and isn't sideways at all.
Tough call, maybe grabbing Goldy is the way to go afterall!
 
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In 2015 Sandi played every game that Fyfe played.
In 2014 Sandi missed Rnd 18, and Fyfe scored 102 (season average 122)
In 2013 the Rounds where Sandi played over 10% TOG were: 15, 16, 18, 19, 20, 23. Fyfe didn't play Rnd 23, and he averaged 113 in the other 5 matches, against a season average 107.
Hi Rowsus, based on this info would it make sense to move Fyfe onto a Hannerbery/Parker/Priddis/R.Gray type or to simply hold? I am worried that there are better options for Fyfe now that Sandi is down...
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus, based on this info would it make sense to move Fyfe onto a Hannerbery/Parker/Priddis/R.Gray type or to simply hold? I am worried that there are better options for Fyfe now that Sandi is down...
Hi MFC,
Simply hold. There's not enough data there to be trading Fyfe out, and it only looks like he is around 8-10 down when Sandi is out, which isn't enough to be wasting a trade on.
 
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Hey there Row.

Would love to hear your opinion on this:

Last week I decided to trade Rockliff down to Papley via DPP.

My reasoning was that I believed that Rocky would be out for more than 2 weeks (which is looking very likely) and I also felt like I made a mistake picking him in the hope his injury woes were behind him. Basically I felt like I needed to make a corrective trade to a more robust premium keeper selection. I also felt that if i played my looping cards right, I could maximise my rookie scoring to make up for his absence (this actually worked quite well as I only missed McCarthy's 96 for Papley's 46 but still managed to score over 2300 which I was quite happy with)

This lead me to trading in bubble-boy Papley who, while he did not set the world on fire again, still produced significant coin and should continue to do so. So it was basically undertaking a 1 down 1 up trade...but over 2 weeks instead of the 1.

Which leads me to my question: which under-priced mid would you chose to replace Rockliff? I am currently sitting on Selwood, but would like to hear your thoughts :)

Note: there is also the option of downgrading someone like a Hewett to a Hartley (for example) for more coin, but not sure with a move like that either. No rookies are currently popping out at me :)
 
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Hi Rowsus

Thanks for all of your wonderful work over the years, you really are the supercoach guru! I'm pretty sure I remember reading in one of your posts that Nick Dal Santo has the most supercoach points over his career than anyone else since it's inception. Just wondering if you could confirm this, and if it's readily convenient, perhaps provide a table of the top 10 supercoach scorers of all time with their total career points. Cheers, JC.
 
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Hey Row,

You posted in your Tables and Analysis Thread that you thought Jack Martin lacked physical attributes and would be played as a small forward a lot until he develops them.

I've only seen him play once this year (against Freo) and he looks to have bulked up quite a bit and has put together a respectable first 3 games. Has your opinion changed? Or is he still too much of a risk to consider?
 
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