Opinion Todd Goldstein $695,100 - Trust Or Trap?

[Bomber18]

Fantastic tables Klo! Great resources.

I can see why people might bank on a down game against Freo bringing down his price for a round 7 trade in but keep in mind how he also verses teams like BRI, MEL, GC around that game. These are teams that give up the most SC points to their opponents. If he goes 150+ in a few of those games, his price won't go down that much.

I can see Klo's middle table of Goldy's last scores against his opponents being a more accurate representation of how his price might fluctuate (Although I think he'll score lower against Freo). Even if he scores 90-100 against Freo, his higher scores around it will keep his price around 640k. Rookies won't have matured enough for a trade in at Round 6 IMO. He had 150+ scores early last season as well. Teams that miss out on him in Round 7, 8 and 9 would really struggle to catch up. Assuming Goldy averages 115-120, his higher scores would come against BRI, MEL, GCS, STK, ESS and CAR as those are all teams that give up heaps of points to opposition and he plays them all in the first 9 rounds!

My prediction of his first 8 would be something like: 105, 130, 150, 95, 150, 115, 140+, 140+ (200?), 140+

Goldy averaging 128 and only dropped 14k. I just wanted to gloat how I called in preseason that his price wouldn't drop much due to a big score against Melb.
Although, no one could've predicted a Sandi injury to let him score 120 against Freo, even without it he was looking like holding his price.
One of the few things I've gotten right this season!

 

[I am Cursed :(]

Goldy averaging 128 and only dropped 14k. I just wanted to gloat how I called in preseason that his price wouldn't drop much due to a big score against Melb.
Although, no one could've predicted a Sandi injury to let him score 120 against Freo, even without it he was looking like holding his price.
One of the few things I've gotten right this season!

I too am loving the set and forget GG combo. Top two rucks so far, not looking like slowing down!

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

I too am loving the set and forget GG combo. Top two rucks so far, not looking like slowing down!

Same here

 

[blue dreamer]

He's a much better buy now at 680k with & 138 more points than my trade to him (Stef) he said self depracatingly

 

[anfa18]

Goldy averaging 128 and only dropped 14k. I just wanted to gloat how I called in preseason that his price wouldn't drop much due to a big score against Melb.
Although, no one could've predicted a Sandi injury to let him score 120 against Freo, even without it he was looking like holding his price.
One of the few things I've gotten right this season!

Firstly it looks like a well done and good job for all those who started Goldy (i bet some were a little nervous after the first 2 rounds 126 and 95 and then again yesterday when it was said he could be a late out). Having said that, i backed my reasoning, while it hasn't gone great with Martin and Jacobs (i could have started Gawn and Nic Nat) i still feel my reasoning was pretty solid for not starting Goldy, i just went with the wrong combo.
My original reasoning: Goldstein's first 4 games would be up against Jacobs, Martin, Gawn and Sandilands. They are probably the 4 best ruckmen apart from Goldstein and he faced them all from the get go. No one could predict Goldy kicking 5 goals against Melbourne and Sandilands being injured, but that's the way the cookie has crumbled and you can't win them all.
I also didn't start with Shaw. While he is averaging 90, has only managed 1 good score, dropped 60k and has a B/E of 124. This is somewhat how i expected Goldy to start. If you started both Goldy and Shaw, you would be well behind people who went with Gawn/Nic Nat and Rance + 200k at this stage.

I guess, if Martin is going to miss weeks, i'll bring him in and save face by telling people my plan to bring him in worked perfectly.

 

[Bomber18]

Firstly it looks like a well done and good job for all those who started Goldy (i bet some were a little nervous after the first 2 rounds 126 and 95 and then again yesterday when it was said he could be a late out). Having said that, i backed my reasoning, while it hasn't gone great with Martin and Jacobs (i could have started Gawn and Nic Nat) i still feel my reasoning was pretty solid for not starting Goldy, i just went with the wrong combo.
My original reasoning: Goldstein's first 4 games would be up against Jacobs, Martin, Gawn and Sandilands. They are probably the 4 best ruckmen apart from Goldstein and he faced them all from the get go. No one could predict Goldy kicking 5 goals against Melbourne and Sandilands being injured, but that's the way the cookie has crumbled and you can't win them all.
I also didn't start with Shaw. While he is averaging 90, has only managed 1 good score, dropped 60k and has a B/E of 124. This is somewhat how i expected Goldy to start. If you started both Goldy and Shaw, you would be well behind people who went with Gawn/Nic Nat and Rance + 200k at this stage.

I guess, if Martin is going to miss weeks, i'll bring him in and save face by telling people my plan to bring him in worked perfectly.

Didn't predict 5 goals, but I predicted he'd score enough points around the ground (ie: a 140-150 DT score) as Melbourne leak a lot of points. Predicting another big score verse Nicholls, but probably not a 150 as GC are an improved side this season. Gawn/Nic Nat (or Mummy) seems the only alternative combos that can compete with Goldy. Could change in the next few weeks as North have a few more easier sides to beat up on. Smartin has lost of cash (even before his injury), so he's clearly been a worse starting pick than Goldy.

I didn't start Shaw because I didn't think he'd be the no.1 scorer. Rance is a dime in a dozen of potential defensive options, and seems like the best pick so far. He might be beneficiary of the ball spending extra time in the tigers defence. I'm not a fan of paying top dollar for defenders though.

 

[stephen]

If Stef had scored the 120+ he was on track for yesterday, I'd say the jury would still be well and truly out. No doubt you're up now though, ya smug jerks.

 

[Bomber18]

If Stef had scored the 120+ he was on track for yesterday, I'd say the jury would still be well and truly out. No doubt you're up now though, ya smug jerks.

Yeah that's a good point. Looking at his scores, he was still doing alright with 104 avg before R4. I've got him in DT and just assumed he'd been poor, cos he'd been terrible in that format.

irregardless, I think Goldy after R4 averaging 128 is a winner for those who started him.

 

[Eagling]

Yeah that's a good point. Looking at his scores, he was still doing alright with 104 avg before R4. I've got him in DT and just assumed he'd been poor, cos he'd been terrible in that format.

irregardless, I think Goldy after R4 averaging 128 is a winner for those who started him.

I'm satisfied with Stef as my R2; consistently performing; although he hasn't hit the heights of Nic Nat and Gawn; he hasn't put up scores as low as they did. Just had the bad luck to be KOed when he was on his way to a big score.

 

[anfa18]

Interesting time to bring this thread back to attention. What are people's thoughts? Goldy started like a house on fire but the last 2 weeks has come back to the field. He's now lost 100k and has a B/E of 200.

 

[jaca]

Wouldn't want a different combo that Gawnstein right now, though.

 

[Eagling]

Wouldn't want a different combo that Gawnstein right now, though.

Gawnanui would be up there too.

 

[anfa18]

Wouldn't want a different combo that Gawnstein right now, though.

Technically Gawn and Nic Nat for the most points so far and for points per dollar spent.

I will be likely to trade Jacobs to Goldstein in 2 weeks, hopefully saving 150k+ on him. Although i've saved nothing because Martin has dropped 130k and Jacobs has dropped 100k Losing 60+ points per week compared with Gawn and Nic Nat. All four of those players were similar prices pre-season and i selected the wrong two.

 

[CHARTREUSE 55%]

Mumstein all the way for me!

 

[jaca]

Good point on Nic Nat, the "right" starting call was probably Gawn , Nic Nat, 3 premo defence, heavy premo in mids with no Fyfe.

Ah, hindsight.

 

[Eagling]

Good point on Nic Nat, the "right" starting call was probably Gawn , Nic Nat, 3 premo defence, heavy premo in mids with no Fyfe.

Ah, hindsight.

I went heavy premo in the mids - Ablett, Fyfe, Selwood, Pendlebury and Rockliff. All of them have had issues.

 

[Bomber18]

Interesting time to bring this thread back to attention. What are people's thoughts? Goldy started like a house on fire but the last 2 weeks has come back to the field. He's now lost 100k and has a B/E of 200.

He'll probably make that this week verse Essendon

With Dons & Blues, coming up we'll know whether it was better to start him or give him a miss soon.

I agree that Nic Nat & Gawn seems like the much better option. A lot of players at the top seem to have gone that combo.

 

[MC's Mix]

Wouldn't want a different combo that Gawnstein right now, though.

Gawn/Nat averaging more.

 

[The Experiment]

He'll probably make that this week verse Essendon

With Dons & Blues, coming up we'll know whether it was better to start him or give him a miss soon.

I agree that Nic Nat & Gawn seems like the much better option. A lot of players at the top seem to have gone that combo.

Any chance Goldy gets a rest against the Bombers and North look to give Daw a run?

 

[t.thomas6]

Any chance Goldy gets a rest against the Bombers and North look to give Daw a run?

More than likely they both play. Goldy is not a fan of resting unless he's injured. Will always play even if sore.