Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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Thanks B18.
Since his debut, Fyfe has played 106 Home and Away games. If we drop out his first season, where he was just getting his feet wet, this falls to 90.
Fyfe has scored 120+ scores in 37 of those 90 games, and 100-119 in a further 28. Hardly Pendlebury like for 100+ scores, is it?
In those 90 games, Fremantle have won by a margin between 1 - 15 14 times, and Fyfe has 10 of his 120+ scores in those games.
So in 15.6% of his games, he has scored 27.0% of his 120+ scores. Or, he scores 120+ 71.4% of the time in small wins, but only 41.1% of the time overall, beyond his first season.
Fyfe has 13 140+ scores, and 6 of those have come in games with a 1 to 15 point win for Fremantle. Or, he scores a monster 140+ 42.9% of the time in small wins, but only 14.4% of the time of overall, beyond his first season.
46.2% of his monster scores, come from the 15.6% of games, where Fremantle win by low margins.
In rough terms, he's twice as likely to post a 120+ score, and 3 times as likely to post a monster, in a game Fremantle win by a low margin.
I guess the point I am trying to make is, we don't let that dissuade us from getting Fyfe, so we shouldn't let it stop us getting Bontempelli.
Bontempelli's number of scores outside of his first season is still a lowish count. When we have more data, I am expecting a Fyfe-like distribution in scores, even if the quality doesn't necessarily completely match.
Since his debut, Fyfe has played 106 Home and Away games. If we drop out his first season, where he was just getting his feet wet, this falls to 90.
Fyfe has scored 120+ scores in 37 of those 90 games, and 100-119 in a further 28. Hardly Pendlebury like for 100+ scores, is it?
In those 90 games, Fremantle have won by a margin between 1 - 15 14 times, and Fyfe has 10 of his 120+ scores in those games.
So in 15.6% of his games, he has scored 27.0% of his 120+ scores. Or, he scores 120+ 71.4% of the time in small wins, but only 41.1% of the time overall, beyond his first season.
Fyfe has 13 140+ scores, and 6 of those have come in games with a 1 to 15 point win for Fremantle. Or, he scores a monster 140+ 42.9% of the time in small wins, but only 14.4% of the time of overall, beyond his first season.
46.2% of his monster scores, come from the 15.6% of games, where Fremantle win by low margins.
In rough terms, he's twice as likely to post a 120+ score, and 3 times as likely to post a monster, in a game Fremantle win by a low margin.
I guess the point I am trying to make is, we don't let that dissuade us from getting Fyfe, so we shouldn't let it stop us getting Bontempelli.
Bontempelli's number of scores outside of his first season is still a lowish count. When we have more data, I am expecting a Fyfe-like distribution in scores, even if the quality doesn't necessarily completely match.
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Hi ****,
you have probably read my Ablett Replacement Options thread, so you know I'm not completely convinced on Hannebery as an Ablett replacement. I do however think Hall has become close to a "really should have" since Ablett, Rischitelli and Prestia have gone down. I wouldn't be sitting him at M9, I would be starting him in my Fwd's.
you have probably read my Ablett Replacement Options thread, so you know I'm not completely convinced on Hannebery as an Ablett replacement. I do however think Hall has become close to a "really should have" since Ablett, Rischitelli and Prestia have gone down. I wouldn't be sitting him at M9, I would be starting him in my Fwd's.
Hey Slammer,
good write up in the "Introduce Yourself" thread.
I like option A with Merrett and Sloane. It's better to have your D6 as your last upgrade, because if things go pear-shaped, and you get stuck, it's the best place to be compromised.
I just have a doubt over Zorko. It's half a gut feeling on correction, half a doubt on his role, and half how Brisbane are travelling. (3 halves?!
).
Zerrett is pure Mid, and no doubt on his role.
good write up in the "Introduce Yourself" thread.
I like option A with Merrett and Sloane. It's better to have your D6 as your last upgrade, because if things go pear-shaped, and you get stuck, it's the best place to be compromised.
I just have a doubt over Zorko. It's half a gut feeling on correction, half a doubt on his role, and half how Brisbane are travelling. (3 halves?!
).Zerrett is pure Mid, and no doubt on his role.
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Hi Rowsus,
Having had a look at both my side for the weekend, and also your latest thread Ablett Replacement Options (which I loved), it brings me to my trade conundrum for this week.
Petracca --> Markov / Silvagni / FD Greenwood is a done deal
Next issue is Gazza, options include...
1. Gazza --> Sloane (or any premo)
- Next week Collins to Boyd, makes McVeigh (or Howe) D7
2. Gazza --> Boyd
- McVeigh moves to the MIDs for this week
- The following week: Collins --> Sloane (or premo MID)
- After next week McVeigh is D7, with ability to cover MIDs, plus having Howe within my 7 'premo' DEFs to also cover FWD
- Sloane in the MIDs, with a BE of 138 this week, and Macaffer/Greenwood to potentially deal with, I could wait a week on him.
- Add Boyd to my DEF this week whilst he has a BE of 85 against the GCS.
Either way, the same outcomes can be achieved.
Here is my side as it stands atm:
Goodie's Guns
DEF: Shaw, Docherty, Simpson, Laird, Howe, McVeigh (Collins, Broad)
MID: Dangerfield, Ablett, Pendlebury, Hannebery, Selwood, Neale, Priddis, Gray (Trengrove, Davis, Phillips)
RUC: Goldstein, Martin (Wyatt)
FWD: Zorko, Martin, Wells, Montagna, Barlow, Deledio (Petracca, Uebergang)
Any quick thoughts would be much appreciated, no stress though if you're busy (or sleeping) hahaha
Cheers Goodie
Having had a look at both my side for the weekend, and also your latest thread Ablett Replacement Options (which I loved), it brings me to my trade conundrum for this week.
Petracca --> Markov / Silvagni / FD Greenwood is a done deal
Next issue is Gazza, options include...
1. Gazza --> Sloane (or any premo)
- Next week Collins to Boyd, makes McVeigh (or Howe) D7
2. Gazza --> Boyd
- McVeigh moves to the MIDs for this week
- The following week: Collins --> Sloane (or premo MID)
- After next week McVeigh is D7, with ability to cover MIDs, plus having Howe within my 7 'premo' DEFs to also cover FWD
- Sloane in the MIDs, with a BE of 138 this week, and Macaffer/Greenwood to potentially deal with, I could wait a week on him.
- Add Boyd to my DEF this week whilst he has a BE of 85 against the GCS.
Either way, the same outcomes can be achieved.
Here is my side as it stands atm:
Goodie's Guns
DEF: Shaw, Docherty, Simpson, Laird, Howe, McVeigh (Collins, Broad)
MID: Dangerfield, Ablett, Pendlebury, Hannebery, Selwood, Neale, Priddis, Gray (Trengrove, Davis, Phillips)
RUC: Goldstein, Martin (Wyatt)
FWD: Zorko, Martin, Wells, Montagna, Barlow, Deledio (Petracca, Uebergang)
Any quick thoughts would be much appreciated, no stress though if you're busy (or sleeping) hahaha
Cheers Goodie
glad you liked my Ablett thread.
Sloane B/E of 138, playing Collingwood at AO, possible Macaffer/Greenwood tag.
Boyd B/E of 85, playing a depleted GC team.
If cash is of any concern, then get Boyd this week, Sloane next week.
If you're ok for cash, and it's all about the points, you'd probably back Sloane to beat Boyd this week.
If in doubt, go the points, and get Sloane.
As to the Silvagni, Markov, Greenwood question. That's a tough one. Obviously Geenwood/Beech are more useful than a non-playing Silvagni/Markov, but against that, your bench cover is thinnish, and could do with an extra playing number there. Both Carlton and Richmond should be looking to get time into the Silvagni's and Markov's, but that's no guarantee of JS. If you think one of them might plat most games (who knows, really), then grab one of them, otherwise go Greenwood/Beech.
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Cheers Row. Very much appreciated.
Cash will be no issue with the Sloane/Boyd one, as either way I go this week, I should be comfortably able to turn Collins into the one that I don't go for when next week rolls around. The only concern I have with going Boyd over Sloane this week, is that say a LTI strikes this weekend and I can't afford to use an extra trade somewhere along the line, I could potentially be stuck with 7 'premo' DEFs, with McVeigh in the MIDs, and only 7 MIDs. Drastic things would have to happen for it to occur, but you never know...
My thinking at the moment of the rookie situation, is get one of the playing rookies, Markov, to improve bench cover ever so slightly. And when/if Phillips or Trengrove make some coin, I will turn one into Greenwood/Beech, and the other into a 'premo', or more likely under priced speculative pick if I have the spare trades and don't get hit by LTI.
Cash will be no issue with the Sloane/Boyd one, as either way I go this week, I should be comfortably able to turn Collins into the one that I don't go for when next week rolls around. The only concern I have with going Boyd over Sloane this week, is that say a LTI strikes this weekend and I can't afford to use an extra trade somewhere along the line, I could potentially be stuck with 7 'premo' DEFs, with McVeigh in the MIDs, and only 7 MIDs. Drastic things would have to happen for it to occur, but you never know...
My thinking at the moment of the rookie situation, is get one of the playing rookies, Markov, to improve bench cover ever so slightly. And when/if Phillips or Trengrove make some coin, I will turn one into Greenwood/Beech, and the other into a 'premo', or more likely under priced speculative pick if I have the spare trades and don't get hit by LTI.
Hi Rowsus, coming towards the business end of season for leagues as well,
my question is, after reading your ablett thread I've settled on Sloane or Bont, but should I pull the trigger this week or wait a week? I cannot drop out of the top 4 in my league so if i lost this week wouldn't be a big deal
I currently have 6 trade The plan was to do ablett to Sloane then wait to downgrade petracca and upgrade DBJ to Doherty at Round 20. Leaving 3 trades to upgrade Wines to Bontempelli and perhaps mumford to Goldstein depending on how they are going.
Is this a good plan and should I wait to trade out Ablett? Thanks
my question is, after reading your ablett thread I've settled on Sloane or Bont, but should I pull the trigger this week or wait a week? I cannot drop out of the top 4 in my league so if i lost this week wouldn't be a big deal
I currently have 6 trade The plan was to do ablett to Sloane then wait to downgrade petracca and upgrade DBJ to Doherty at Round 20. Leaving 3 trades to upgrade Wines to Bontempelli and perhaps mumford to Goldstein depending on how they are going.
Is this a good plan and should I wait to trade out Ablett? Thanks
Clay Smith seems like a bit of a speculative/luxury trade to me. Only 36 games in 5 seasons, and only 6 in the last 2.5 season. Only 6 career scores above 90 in 36 games. I know some of our other supposedly solid cover players have become shakey, or invisible, but you might be replacing one problem, with another. I'd say he's only for Coaches with: completed teams, and a handful or more of trades left, and at least one solid bit of cover already in place in their Mid and Fwd lines.
I don't think there are many Coaches matching that description.
minidee,
I think we need to be careful, and not get too focussed on the 2 games he has played in his comeback, and look more at his overall picture. Huge history of missing games, and not a good scoring history. Very up and down. 100 one week, and a 40 the next.
I don't think there are many Coaches matching that description.
minidee,
I think we need to be careful, and not get too focussed on the 2 games he has played in his comeback, and look more at his overall picture. Huge history of missing games, and not a good scoring history. Very up and down. 100 one week, and a 40 the next.
Might just hold the trade and use it to bring in cover when and where I need it.
Hi Row, just a quick one and I'm sorry if you have already gone over this. I just wanted your opinion on Tom Lynch (Gold Coast) After reading your Ablett analysis I was planning on downgrading Ablett to Coniglio which would allow me to upgrade Menadue to N Riewoldt to finish off my team. But I just realised if I get Lynch instead then I can afford to turn Ablett into Lachie Neale. Just wondering which of these 2 options you like best?
Thanks heaps mate.
Thanks heaps mate.
Thanh,
it would seem certain that you won't win a weekly prize from here, given your circumstances.
It's a bit leftfield, and against what many here believe in, but why not enter a "wife's team", and see how far you can take that in the remaining weeks?
Fill it full of value picks, and a few DPP's. You can probably afford to stick 5 or 6 deadwood $102k players in there, to stretch your bank.
Look at it like a "training drill" for future fantasy comps!
it would seem certain that you won't win a weekly prize from here, given your circumstances.
It's a bit leftfield, and against what many here believe in, but why not enter a "wife's team", and see how far you can take that in the remaining weeks?
Fill it full of value picks, and a few DPP's. You can probably afford to stick 5 or 6 deadwood $102k players in there, to stretch your bank.
Look at it like a "training drill" for future fantasy comps!
Hi Fiasco,
it's a closer call than many think.
If NRoo stays fit, I rate him a chance to score well in the remaining games. If he gets on a run, he could average 110-115 over the concluding rounds. Of course, if his legs "tire", then he could also be regrettable.
If we can't decide with the "secondary" players, let's decide with the primary players. I like Neale over Coniglio, so go Neale/Lynch.
it's a closer call than many think.
If NRoo stays fit, I rate him a chance to score well in the remaining games. If he gets on a run, he could average 110-115 over the concluding rounds. Of course, if his legs "tire", then he could also be regrettable.
If we can't decide with the "secondary" players, let's decide with the primary players. I like Neale over Coniglio, so go Neale/Lynch.
Hey Rowan,
Trust you are well.
Just a quick one. I have pretty much no mid cover. Cover atm is as follows:
DEF: Collins, Ubergang
MID: Trengove, Stewart, Phillips
RUC: Wyatt
FWD: Petrracca, Howard
4 trades and 72k in cash. Following last weeks disappointment which basically came as a result of Ablett C, my instant trades this week were GAJ to Parker (done) and Libba to Priddis leaving 3 trades and 6k cash.
The other option is hold Libba and trade Howard to C Smith leaving 3 trades and $21.3k. This would leave 3 trades and $21.3k to deal with Libba next week. The only real options would be Gaff, Boak, Mundy etc for M8, but cover would be somewhat better.
So the options are Libba - Priddis (no bettter bench cover, no cash) or Howard to Smith (Smith as M8, not much cash to deal with Libba next week). Of course the 3rd option, is to hold Libba this week, play Petracca on field this week and have 4 trades and 72k to deal with problems as they arrive. The fact that a popular Hanneberry scored under 70 las night as me also considering this option as well (I dont have Hanneberry), but I also dont have Danger. Danger is more of a problem, but with no cash and only 73k in bank, I really don't see any way to get him back in and am just going to just have to do the best with what I have got.
Would love to know your thoughts?
Thanks in advance.
Trust you are well.
Just a quick one. I have pretty much no mid cover. Cover atm is as follows:
DEF: Collins, Ubergang
MID: Trengove, Stewart, Phillips
RUC: Wyatt
FWD: Petrracca, Howard
4 trades and 72k in cash. Following last weeks disappointment which basically came as a result of Ablett C, my instant trades this week were GAJ to Parker (done) and Libba to Priddis leaving 3 trades and 6k cash.
The other option is hold Libba and trade Howard to C Smith leaving 3 trades and $21.3k. This would leave 3 trades and $21.3k to deal with Libba next week. The only real options would be Gaff, Boak, Mundy etc for M8, but cover would be somewhat better.
So the options are Libba - Priddis (no bettter bench cover, no cash) or Howard to Smith (Smith as M8, not much cash to deal with Libba next week). Of course the 3rd option, is to hold Libba this week, play Petracca on field this week and have 4 trades and 72k to deal with problems as they arrive. The fact that a popular Hanneberry scored under 70 las night as me also considering this option as well (I dont have Hanneberry), but I also dont have Danger. Danger is more of a problem, but with no cash and only 73k in bank, I really don't see any way to get him back in and am just going to just have to do the best with what I have got.
Would love to know your thoughts?
Thanks in advance.
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Hi Rowsus,
If I have $369,300 in the kitty and want to trade in Danger ($730,800, proj $24,200 price drop) next week (round 18) for Collins ($294,600, proj $37,100 price rise), what will each have to score or the difference in scores for me to achieve this trade?
If the above trade is good to go I can do Ablett to C Smith for cover mids and fowards this week. If I can't make this trade I can go Ablett to Pendles this week with 700 bucks left.
Thanks in advance bud.
If I have $369,300 in the kitty and want to trade in Danger ($730,800, proj $24,200 price drop) next week (round 18) for Collins ($294,600, proj $37,100 price rise), what will each have to score or the difference in scores for me to achieve this trade?
If the above trade is good to go I can do Ablett to C Smith for cover mids and fowards this week. If I can't make this trade I can go Ablett to Pendles this week with 700 bucks left.
Thanks in advance bud.
Hey Ash,
I'm well, and I hope you are too!
I don't like the Clay Smith option. He might turn out to be a tremendous M9/F7, but he also might go with his history, and score very up and down, or worse still, disappear just as quickly as he arrived.
I'm not in love with Priddis at the moment either, to be honest. I'd be more likely to go Gaff for just over $100k less than Priddis. I can't imagine there will be $100k's difference in their scoring from here.
My first option is, take the 50/60 point hit, play Petracca, and reassess next week.
2nd option Libba to Gaff
3rd option Libba to Priddis
Last option Howard to Smith.
The season is only going to get tougher, with injuries and late outs etc. Dragging those 4 trades and $72k for another week seems like a good idea, so you can decide when you know where Libba is at.
Good luck
I'm well, and I hope you are too!
I don't like the Clay Smith option. He might turn out to be a tremendous M9/F7, but he also might go with his history, and score very up and down, or worse still, disappear just as quickly as he arrived.
I'm not in love with Priddis at the moment either, to be honest. I'd be more likely to go Gaff for just over $100k less than Priddis. I can't imagine there will be $100k's difference in their scoring from here.
My first option is, take the 50/60 point hit, play Petracca, and reassess next week.
2nd option Libba to Gaff
3rd option Libba to Priddis
Last option Howard to Smith.
The season is only going to get tougher, with injuries and late outs etc. Dragging those 4 trades and $72k for another week seems like a good idea, so you can decide when you know where Libba is at.
Good luck
Hi Juzzo,
Dangerfield $730,800 B/E 197
Collins $294,600 B/E -7
Bank $369,300
Price difference $436,200 - $369,300 = $96,900 / 440 = 221 points
For you to get there next week, you need Collins to outscore Dangerfield by 221-197+-7=17 points!
I don't think you should complicate it. Even though you might be paying $25-$30k more than you would next week, unless you are really struggling to complete your team, just go Ablett to Dangerfield this week.
Dangerfield $730,800 B/E 197
Collins $294,600 B/E -7
Bank $369,300
Price difference $436,200 - $369,300 = $96,900 / 440 = 221 points
For you to get there next week, you need Collins to outscore Dangerfield by 221-197+-7=17 points!
I don't think you should complicate it. Even though you might be paying $25-$30k more than you would next week, unless you are really struggling to complete your team, just go Ablett to Dangerfield this week.
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