Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Aenimist]

G'day Row,

Keen to hear your thoughts on this trade plan. Ranked 1200 overall but now looking to secure cash league wins.

Much of it depends on whether or not Naismith is decent F/R cover for the remainder of the year. Here is the scenario:

I have 5 trades left.
Want to upgrade Zaha who's my last poor scorer on field.
Thinking of Rose > Naismith (I have Grimley at r3)
Then Zaha > Ward/Gray.

This would give me a fully upgraded team with good DPP links in F/R/M.

I know trades are so precious but I'm thinking of hedging my bets a bit with reasonable bench cover (Petracca, Matheison, collins etc)

Is this folly? Or a calculated gamble? Or a canny move.

Cheers!
A.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi row

I should of listen to you and not trade in lids. I have a dilemma close to finishing my team however lids is likely to miss a few games possibly the season.

My backline is: shaw, laird, rance, bartel, collins, austin, tippa, simpson

forward line: martin, hall, lids, zorko, wells, joey, silvangi, phillips

I have a few options that I can do this week

A trade out McDonald for docherty and buy Dahlhaus when he returns for lids or a forward player that is less than 527k

B trade out McDonald tippa and trade in a defender worth less than 510k possibly z Williams and trade in Merrett for lids. If I chose this option who is the best defender in your opinion that is less than 510k and will score the most points


Also who do you expect to score the most docherty or Merrett? My goal is league win and I'm equal first with 3 other teams but I'm trying to work out if I should use option a and hope Dahlhaus comes back soon and scores over 100.

Hi ad,
keep in mind, that players can be slow to start when they come back from some time off. Even if Dahl returns next week, as touted, he might throw up a disappointing score or two to start with.
I think Merrett will outscore Docherty, and I think the best Defs under $510k are Williams, Enright and McVeigh. Williams is young, and unpredictable. Enright is old, and often gets managed here or there, so might miss a game. McVeigh's scoring is dependant on their roles. If forced to choose one, I'd choose Enright. His consistency of history outweighs McVeigh's unknowns, and the question of whether Williams is just in a hot streak.

It's really hard to identify good Forward prospects at the moment. Merrett should be an easyish choice. (With the rider, that he's likely to get Robbo'ed this week! )

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rows,

Getting low on trades now with 7 .......

There are SCS members cursing your name, a few others curled up in corner, whimpering "h-h-he says he's getting low on trades, and h-h-he has 7....... I have NONE!", and even one or two plotting revenge on you as we speak!!!

but still have final premo defender to make.
Plus I have a pretty weak midfield compared to others with no Danger and Cripps and Shiel currently at M7/M8
Just would like your thoughts on Tom McDonald as a POD. Is he playing a different role now? Seems to have returned to form from last year over the last few weeks. Or do I look at Williams or try somehow to get Docherty in?
Also who for? I have Collins and Ruggles at D6/7 atm. One has to go but not sure which one?
As far as midfield goes I guess there is not much I can do until I can perform a luxury trade in finals , if I hold onto my top four league spot.
Cheers

Certainly McDonald's last 2 scores have been good, but I'm not sure that is enough to say he is back to last season's form. It was only against Freo and St Kilda. Like Rance, in games where he has more pace, and can back himself to run off his opponent, he should score well, taking a number of intercept marks. This week, as an example, he probably has to curb that lust for the run off, and stay closer to JJK. Next week, he has GC and Lynch. Then Hawthorn, and he might run off his man there (if he gets Sicily, or McEvoy/Ceglar, not Gunston!). Port and Geelong in rounds 21 and 23, some chance to run off Dixon/Schultz or Hawkins in those matches, and Carlton in round 22 I expect him to do some running there. Ok, so he's a chance to do it in maybe 4 of the last 6 games, but I'm not sure about his next two games.
The point is, you have two speculative picks in your Mids causing you concerns. If you take what might be a speculative pick here, then you could easily and quickly eat up those saved trades. Against that, is that if you are going to take a risk, then D6 is a good spot to do it. If you are really keen on him, then get him, just don't expect much in the next 2 weeks.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, great Ablett replacement write up. I went with Coniglio and it had an immediate pay off

With possible LTIs to Lids and Barlow, I'm thinking that there are going to have to be some "risky" forward picks to complete teams. Money isn't an issue. Wells doesn't inspire much confidence either due to his regular injuries, but out of the remaining risky options who do you rate to have a good finish? Looking at options such as:

JJK
NRoo
Gunston
Buddy
Hall
Westhoff
Lynch (Suns)

Dahlhaus would be an ideal replacement, but he's still got a B/E of 190+ and I'd like to see how he performs coming back from a medium grade injury before bringing him in. Happy to consider other options too. Cheers in advance

Hey a_gups,
you've just about listed my whole Fwd line there, so I hope they all go well!
I'd skip Buddy. His history says he misses games, and scores lower, as the season goes on.
Hall has the opportunity with all the GC Mids out again, to do what he did late last season. Unfortunately, last week was an opportunity too, and he didn't take it. May be watch him this week.
Westhoff is up and down, and you just missed a good score. He's usually just outside the top 8-10 Fwds, so maybe....
We never know what JJK and NRoo might give us! They might average 80 from here, or 110, who knows?
Lynch is still learning the game, and is in cracking form, he's a chance to continue on.
Gunston is a ripper. He's playing more like a tall Forward line Ruck-Rover, than a key position player. Of the players listed, he's be my most reliable pick.
I agree on Dahl. High B/E, and query on return form. I'd watch him a game or two first.

 

[Rowsus]

G'day Row,

Keen to hear your thoughts on this trade plan. Ranked 1200 overall but now looking to secure cash league wins.

Much of it depends on whether or not Naismith is decent F/R cover for the remainder of the year. Here is the scenario:

I have 5 trades left.
Want to upgrade Zaha who's my last poor scorer on field.
Thinking of Rose > Naismith (I have Grimley at r3)
Then Zaha > Ward/Gray.

This would give me a fully upgraded team with good DPP links in F/R/M.

I know trades are so precious but I'm thinking of hedging my bets a bit with reasonable bench cover (Petracca, Matheison, collins etc)

Is this folly? Or a calculated gamble? Or a canny move.

Cheers!
A.

G'day Aen,
we are guessing with the Naismith situation. When Tippett comes back, does Naismith disappear? Many are assuming so, and they may be right, but I think it might be close, between him and Sinclair.
Having said that, I know this week is an opportunity to grab him cheap, but unless you need him to replace someone like Martin this week, I think the odds say, just let him go. You'd be using a trade now, on a guess that you'll have cover when you need it. If he disappears, you've burnt a trade for nothing, and it's that same trade you might possibly use, if the need for the "missing" Naismith pops up down the track. I hope that made sense.
If you are just doing at as a downgrade option, in the hope he is there if needed, then that's ok. If you are doing because you are also thin in Fwd coverage, then Markov possibly has better JS, given Richmond's position, than Naismith. Possibly.
Bottom line. If you take Naismith, it has to be with the approach, that he will likely not be there, when you need him. (unless you need him this week!)

 

[Slammer]

There are SCS members cursing your name, a few others curled up in corner, whimpering "h-h-he says he's getting low on trades, and h-h-he has 7....... I have NONE!", and even one or two plotting revenge on you as we speak!!!





Certainly McDonald's last 2 scores have been good, but I'm not sure that is enough to say he is back to last season's form. It was only against Freo and St Kilda. Like Rance, in games where he has more pace, and can back himself to run off his opponent, he should score well, taking a number of intercept marks. This week, as an example, he probably has to curb that lust for the run off, and stay closer to JJK. Next week, he has GC and Lynch. Then Hawthorn, and he might run off his man there (if he gets Sicily, or McEvoy/Ceglar, not Gunston!). Port and Geelong in rounds 21 and 23, some chance to run off Dixon/Schultz or Hawkins in those matches, and Carlton in round 22 I expect him to do some running there. Ok, so he's a chance to do it in maybe 4 of the last 6 games, but I'm not sure about his next two games.
The point is, you have two speculative picks in your Mids causing you concerns. If you take what might be a speculative pick here, then you could easily and quickly eat up those saved trades. Against that, is that if you are going to take a risk, then D6 is a good spot to do it. If you are really keen on him, then get him, just don't expect much in the next 2 weeks.

Thanks mate for making me think a little clearer. This I guess leaves me with only a couple of options

1. Currie & Hutchings to Naismith and either Howe/Williams/McVeigh - (would open up m/d link via T.Cole) and leave Collins and Ruggles as good bench cover
2. Hutchings & Collins or Ruggles for Docherty and another DPP rookie for FD currently have CSmith/T.Phillips/Petracca but would only leave Collins or Ruggles as cover

Would love to have Docherty via Ruggles possibly but leaning towards option 1 as the safer option leaving two good bench options - just can't decide

 

[MC's Mix]

Gday Row, i'd love to hear your opinion on my situation:

# Currently 2500th or so, aiming to finish as high as possible (ideally top 1k)
# Traded out Danger a few weeks back to grab Sloane and upgrades elsewhere, with the hope that he'd underperform and drop a bit of cash.


So the plan was to bring back Danger, though now it looks like that will cost me 3 trades, leaving only 2 remaining.
Other option is to grab one of Hannebery/Neale/Steven/Coniglio this week, costing only the 2 trades

45k cash
Menadue --> Markov = +186k
Davis (+231k) = Any mid 565k(ish) or less


Currently i'm looping Davis/Kerridge/Mathieson in M8 which isn't ideal, though i've moved up the rankings nicely over the past 4-6 weeks regardless. What do you suggest?

Cheers

 

[bomberboy]

Hey Row,
I'm currently ranked 78th, 4 trades left.

With the sudden carnage around me (Barlow, Hall, Lids) and having avoided all these players, but having McVeigh, would it be a good idea to trade McVeigh and try and capitalise on this carnage and trade McVeigh? I have 521k to get a defender with (so can't get Docherty, but could open up a pod (Eg pittard). Or should I just cover him with Collins?

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks mate for making me think a little clearer. This I guess leaves me with only a couple of options

1. Currie & Hutchings to Naismith and either Howe/Williams/McVeigh - (would open up m/d link via T.Cole) and leave Collins and Ruggles as good bench cover
2. Hutchings & Collins or Ruggles for Docherty and another DPP rookie for FD currently have CSmith/T.Phillips/Petracca but would only leave Collins or Ruggles as cover

Would love to have Docherty via Ruggles possibly but leaning towards option 1 as the safer option leaving two good bench options - just can't decide

Option 1 does look safer, with Howe if you have a link, or Williams if you want to back the hot streak.

 

[Rowsus]

Gday Row, i'd love to hear your opinion on my situation:

# Currently 2500th or so, aiming to finish as high as possible (ideally top 1k)
# Traded out Danger a few weeks back to grab Sloane and upgrades elsewhere, with the hope that he'd underperform and drop a bit of cash.


So the plan was to bring back Danger, though now it looks like that will cost me 3 trades, leaving only 2 remaining.
Other option is to grab one of Hannebery/Neale/Steven/Coniglio this week, costing only the 2 trades

45k cash
Menadue --> Markov = +186k
Davis (+231k) = Any mid 565k(ish) or less


Currently i'm looping Davis/Kerridge/Mathieson in M8 which isn't ideal, though i've moved up the rankings nicely over the past 4-6 weeks regardless. What do you suggest?

Cheers

G'day MCM
I think you should go ahead and do it.
My preference order is Neale, Coniglio, Steven, Hannebery.
Good luck.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,
I'm currently ranked 78th, 4 trades left.

With the sudden carnage around me (Barlow, Hall, Lids) and having avoided all these players, but having McVeigh, would it be a good idea to trade McVeigh and try and capitalise on this carnage and trade McVeigh? I have 521k to get a defender with (so can't get Docherty, but could open up a pod (Eg pittard). Or should I just cover him with Collins?

Hey bb,
I would just cover him with Collins. It sounds like you are burning a trade to cover a potential 30 or 40 point drop. Even in your position, trades are worth more than that.

 

[a_gups]

Hey a_gups,
you've just about listed my whole Fwd line there, so I hope they all go well!
I'd skip Buddy. His history says he misses games, and scores lower, as the season goes on.
Hall has the opportunity with all the GC Mids out again, to do what he did late last season. Unfortunately, last week was an opportunity too, and he didn't take it. May be watch him this week.
Westhoff is up and down, and you just missed a good score. He's usually just outside the top 8-10 Fwds, so maybe....
We never know what JJK and NRoo might give us! They might average 80 from here, or 110, who knows?
Lynch is still learning the game, and is in cracking form, he's a chance to continue on.
Gunston is a ripper. He's playing more like a tall Forward line Ruck-Rover, than a key position player. Of the players listed, he's be my most reliable pick.
I agree on Dahl. High B/E, and query on return form. I'd watch him a game or two first.

Cheers Rowsus, with Hall out this week I've narrowed my choices down to Gunston or NRoo. Might go with the one that has a more favourable finals draw

 

[Bomber18]

Hey Rowsus,

I'm considering doing Trengrove to Motlop (or any other M/F price $390,200 or less) to avoid a Hall donut. I'm just short of Robbo by $5k, so I don't see any other viable M/F picks outside of Motlop in the <$390k range. (Not a fan of C.Smith like yourself).

Only have the 2 trades, but I think it might be worthwhile doing it to cover the donut and improve my bench coverage to avoid future donuts.
Another point to note is that I sacrificed my M8 side last week to also cover a donut. Currently have McVeigh (although he's Mathieson this week) running at M8, so potentially I could use whoever I trade in to add points over my dodgy M8 pick.

All in all, how do you rate Motlop's prospects of averaging ~90 to close out the season? I think the cats have a decent draw, is Motlop going to be the savior of my SC side?

Thank you!

 

[Slammer]

Option 1 does look safer, with Howe if you have a link, or Williams if you want to back the hot streak.

Thanks mate. Wouldn't open a link up with Howe so I guess I will just have to pick one

 

[Adrenaline]

Hi ad,
keep in mind, that players can be slow to start when they come back from some time off. Even if Dahl returns next week, as touted, he might throw up a disappointing score or two to start with.
I think Merrett will outscore Docherty, and I think the best Defs under $510k are Williams, Enright and McVeigh. Williams is young, and unpredictable. Enright is old, and often gets managed here or there, so might miss a game. McVeigh's scoring is dependant on their roles. If forced to choose one, I'd choose Enright. His consistency of history outweighs McVeigh's unknowns, and the question of whether Williams is just in a hot streak.

It's really hard to identify good Forward prospects at the moment. Merrett should be an easyish choice. (With the rider, that he's likely to get Robbo'ed this week! )

thanks row so much for all your help throughout the year. i am sure i will be coming back again..one last question for this week.

i agree that dalhause will start slow. theres no way they will stick him into the midfield and let him play a whole game. the dogs want dahlahuse to be right for finals. so i will expect a couple of 80's before he peaks. i also agree that robbo will more than likely go to merett. the good thing thats going for merett is he tackles heaps but not sure if its going to get him a 130 this week.

my current team is:
bartel, laird, shaw, simpson, collins, austin, rance, amt
danger, priddis, hanners, jpk, neale, pendles, rocky, selwood, dunkley, hopper, trengrove
gawn and goldie
martin, montayna, zorko, hall, wells, lids, phillips, and silvangi.

the goal is league and i am sitting first with a game in hand. if i lose i might go to 3rd or 4th and should win the last game. the goal is to get to the top 4th and get the best team possible on the park. i have 7 trades left. so in an ok position. i am playing second team and he has no donuts.

i want to get the best team on the park and there are a lot of unknown for lids which i am prepared to wait a week. i want to get in docherty because he has a good run for the finals and i think it might cost me. my options are:
a. trade out lids for merett and amt to enright/williams. i go down to 5 trades, no money and possibly more carnage on the way.
b. trade out collins this week for doc and next week assess the lids situation and either make a trade to dalhause or wait an extra week if lids plays. i will go down to 6 trades or possibly 5 for finals.
c. trade out collins this week for doc and trade in uber for phillips which opens the f/d link. only issue is i only make 50 k for that trade. i go down to 5 trades and really dont resolve the issues with the forwards.

i was wondering if you can advise what your suggestions are? thanks again rowsus

 

[Aenimist]

G'day Aen,
we are guessing with the Naismith situation. When Tippett comes back, does Naismith disappear? Many are assuming so, and they may be right, but I think it might be close, between him and Sinclair.
Having said that, I know this week is an opportunity to grab him cheap, but unless you need him to replace someone like Martin this week, I think the odds say, just let him go. You'd be using a trade now, on a guess that you'll have cover when you need it. If he disappears, you've burnt a trade for nothing, and it's that same trade you might possibly use, if the need for the "missing" Naismith pops up down the track. I hope that made sense.
If you are just doing at as a downgrade option, in the hope he is there if needed, then that's ok. If you are doing because you are also thin in Fwd coverage, then Markov possibly has better JS, given Richmond's position, than Naismith. Possibly.
Bottom line. If you take Naismith, it has to be with the approach, that he will likely not be there, when you need him. (unless you need him this week!)

As always some very useful food for thought. Thanks heaps mate!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

I'm considering doing Trengrove to Motlop (or any other M/F price $390,200 or less) to avoid a Hall donut. I'm just short of Robbo by $5k, so I don't see any other viable M/F picks outside of Motlop in the <$390k range. (Not a fan of C.Smith like yourself).

Only have the 2 trades, but I think it might be worthwhile doing it to cover the donut and improve my bench coverage to avoid future donuts.
Another point to note is that I sacrificed my M8 side last week to also cover a donut. Currently have McVeigh (although he's Mathieson this week) running at M8, so potentially I could use whoever I trade in to add points over my dodgy M8 pick.

All in all, how do you rate Motlop's prospects of averaging ~90 to close out the season? I think the cats have a decent draw, is Motlop going to be the savior of my SC side?

Thank you!

Hey B18,
given the way the landscape is sitting at Metricon Stadium right now, if I was looking for a sub $390k M/F, I would be bringing in Touk Miller! ($370,500) I think he's pretty much guaranteed to be playing Mid and resting Forward. He can score 100+'s, and gets his share of the ball, but like Hall, he can butcher it sometimes. He's only in 1% of teams, and has averaged 92 across his last 3 games, as his opportunities have increased. Motlop is in 6% of teams, and has averaged 67 over his last 3 games.

 

[Rowsus]

thanks row so much for all your help throughout the year. i am sure i will be coming back again..one last question for this week.

i agree that dalhause will start slow. theres no way they will stick him into the midfield and let him play a whole game. the dogs want dahlahuse to be right for finals. so i will expect a couple of 80's before he peaks. i also agree that robbo will more than likely go to merett. the good thing thats going for merett is he tackles heaps but not sure if its going to get him a 130 this week.

my current team is:
bartel, laird, shaw, simpson, collins, austin, rance, amt
danger, priddis, hanners, jpk, neale, pendles, rocky, selwood, dunkley, hopper, trengrove
gawn and goldie
martin, montayna, zorko, hall, wells, lids, phillips, and silvangi.

the goal is league and i am sitting first with a game in hand. if i lose i might go to 3rd or 4th and should win the last game. the goal is to get to the top 4th and get the best team possible on the park. i have 7 trades left. so in an ok position. i am playing second team and he has no donuts.

i want to get the best team on the park and there are a lot of unknown for lids which i am prepared to wait a week. i want to get in docherty because he has a good run for the finals and i think it might cost me. my options are:
a. trade out lids for merett and amt to enright/williams. i go down to 5 trades, no money and possibly more carnage on the way.
b. trade out collins this week for doc and next week assess the lids situation and either make a trade to dalhause or wait an extra week if lids plays. i will go down to 6 trades or possibly 5 for finals.
c. trade out collins this week for doc and trade in uber for phillips which opens the f/d link. only issue is i only make 50 k for that trade. i go down to 5 trades and really dont resolve the issues with the forwards.

i was wondering if you can advise what your suggestions are? thanks again rowsus

Always happy to help ad.
Given your desire for League success, I'd go option B.
If in doubt, do the option with less trades involved. In this case, it pushes a trade decision back a week, and gives you another weeks information, as well as closing the Docherty problem for you.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Rowsus

Thanks for you analysis on Ablett replacement. I deferred the decision by a week and used it as an opportunity to bring in a prem defender, however, will trade Collins this week for a premium mid worth up to $542k. Going for league rather than overall.

Ward wasn't on the radar prior to last week due to some inconsistent form, however, he showed he can beat up a bottom side rather than cruise which is different to earlier in the year (great work how you cute the data up differently to show that) and looking back, its probably the Ess game which shows up as an anomaly, his earlier season form was excellent. Guessing the loss to Pies has shaken up the cruise vs lower side mentality.

Any concerns bringing him in or preference for anyone $542k or below.

Thanks.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus

Thanks for you analysis on Ablett replacement. I deferred the decision by a week and used it as an opportunity to bring in a prem defender, however, will trade Collins this week for a premium mid worth up to $542k. Going for league rather than overall.

Ward wasn't on the radar prior to last week due to some inconsistent form, however, he showed he can beat up a bottom side rather than cruise which is different to earlier in the year (great work how you cute the data up differently to show that) and looking back, its probably the Ess game which shows up as an anomaly, his earlier season form was excellent. Guessing the loss to Pies has shaken up the cruise vs lower side mentality.

Any concerns bringing him in or preference for anyone $542k or below.

Thanks.

GFB

Always happy to help.
No problem with Ward, and I reckon you're right that a few of them, including the Captain, would have gotten an earful after the Collingwood game!
Your only options appear to be Ward, Steven and Priddis. Ward actually looks the safer of the 3 from here. Steven might score nothing but 140's and 90's from here, but will there be enough 140's? Probably not. Priddis will likely get a tag team of Viney and Vince running with him this week. Sometimes they're effective in slowing down their targets, other times not so much. With Lycett/Giles up against Gawn, supply might be a little depleted this week too. It all sounds like Ward to me!