Position Rate My Team - SC Now Open
- Thread starter I am Cursed :(
- Start date
- Status
Selwood I think is a very safe bet to be top 8 or 10 midfielder. However he represents little upside and value for his starting price. Being a slow starter aside, all the other picks around the same price have room for growth and potential. Rockliff has achieved a 132 ave season before and could approach it if injury free. Treloar is yet to hit his prime, and will finally have an injury free preseason, grundy improving as a tap ruckman etc. JPK potentially gets more midfield time than his current 90 mid 10 fwd situation. Beams is 200k cheaper and could average very similarly
In previous years the current selwood could be an excellent selection. However with the abundance of appealing midfield choices this year. One must ask, where and how can we find further progress and improvement by Selwood? The Dangerfield effect has already been included in his pricing. Perhaps Selwood has a slight injury discount from early this year? Nonetheless, Selwood remains a perfectly viable but unappealing option.
In previous years the current selwood could be an excellent selection. However with the abundance of appealing midfield choices this year. One must ask, where and how can we find further progress and improvement by Selwood? The Dangerfield effect has already been included in his pricing. Perhaps Selwood has a slight injury discount from early this year? Nonetheless, Selwood remains a perfectly viable but unappealing option.
- Joined
- 6 Jan 2013
- Messages
- 19,074
- Likes
- 80,340
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
69, 72, 82
89, 90, 79
83, 82, 93
83, 91, 73
Those numbers are Selwood's consecutive SC scores over a three week period in the early to mid part of the season from the last four years.
It's for that reason that I won't be starting with him in the hope that the trend will continue and I can pick him up a lot cheaper than his starting price.
89, 90, 79
83, 82, 93
83, 91, 73
Those numbers are Selwood's consecutive SC scores over a three week period in the early to mid part of the season from the last four years.
It's for that reason that I won't be starting with him in the hope that the trend will continue and I can pick him up a lot cheaper than his starting price.
I accept those scores Ben but I am happy to stick with the "unappealing option" as Prochard describes it. What I like is that he has missed only 2 games in 4 years. Hold that up against Rocky who at various times has gone 71, missed two games, 57, 0 (that's ZERO) and 97 in 2015 and 87, 48, missed 2 games and 83 in 2016. Meanwhile although I accept the talent Beams has he has played 2 games since August 1 2105.... His past 4 seasons have produced 7, 19, 16 and 2 games respectively. Maybe you could argue that you should wait for Rocky or Beams to have the inevitable injury and bring them in after that (and get a Rocky 200!!!)
- Joined
- 4 Jan 2014
- Messages
- 117
- Likes
- 17
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Looks pretty good to me mate, I have a fairly similar structure and quite a few of the same players. A few thoughts:
- To me Sandi is a similar pick to Giles, but with a better history. His last two proper seasons have seen him average the same as NicNat did this year, so he's arguably a very viable premium option, just much cheaper. To me Giles is more of a stepping stone.
- Someone made the point to me last year that if your cheap R2 goes down early, often there is no good backup plan - you need to use two trades to fix it, because there often aren't other choices around that price range. Ryder in the forward line is a reasonable backup as I see it (for Giles or Sandi). He's also an outside chance of being an outright forward premium, and probably gets to that level via his ruck cover benefits. I don't think JOM will be either a premium or outscore a cheap rookie by 35+ points per week, and McCarthy looks like another stepping stone kind of option, so maybe you could go JOM+Giles+McCarthy to 127k mid+Sandi+Ryder?
- I think defence is somewhat hard this year, in that there are few options that look really attractive - they are probably more "you get what you pay for" kind of options. I have Shaw as my last picked def, but opted against the other three. I'm not sure Hibberd will get to premium level this year, given his layoff and the higher scoring expected down back. Boyd I'm not sure about in terms of the impact of a fit Murphy and JJ - I remember analysing him at length around late May last year, and ultimately bringing him in, but only because Bob was out and JJ still had weeks on the sidelines. Adams looks an okay option but probably needs to lift his DE to improve, and he misses a lot of games - I actually prefer his teammate Howe, who averaged around 100 when playing down back last year, is priced below Adams, and is one of the most durable players available (especially if he can avoid frisbee accidents!).
Good luck.
- To me Sandi is a similar pick to Giles, but with a better history. His last two proper seasons have seen him average the same as NicNat did this year, so he's arguably a very viable premium option, just much cheaper. To me Giles is more of a stepping stone.
- Someone made the point to me last year that if your cheap R2 goes down early, often there is no good backup plan - you need to use two trades to fix it, because there often aren't other choices around that price range. Ryder in the forward line is a reasonable backup as I see it (for Giles or Sandi). He's also an outside chance of being an outright forward premium, and probably gets to that level via his ruck cover benefits. I don't think JOM will be either a premium or outscore a cheap rookie by 35+ points per week, and McCarthy looks like another stepping stone kind of option, so maybe you could go JOM+Giles+McCarthy to 127k mid+Sandi+Ryder?
- I think defence is somewhat hard this year, in that there are few options that look really attractive - they are probably more "you get what you pay for" kind of options. I have Shaw as my last picked def, but opted against the other three. I'm not sure Hibberd will get to premium level this year, given his layoff and the higher scoring expected down back. Boyd I'm not sure about in terms of the impact of a fit Murphy and JJ - I remember analysing him at length around late May last year, and ultimately bringing him in, but only because Bob was out and JJ still had weeks on the sidelines. Adams looks an okay option but probably needs to lift his DE to improve, and he misses a lot of games - I actually prefer his teammate Howe, who averaged around 100 when playing down back last year, is priced below Adams, and is one of the most durable players available (especially if he can avoid frisbee accidents!).
Good luck.
Looks pretty good lavenderbandit. My ruck line is identical, and we have four premium mids the same. A couple of thoughts:
- Mids look good, but might be a fraction heavy given the rookies are usually best there.
- Macrae looks popular, and a fairly safe pick as a top forward. Is there a reason you've opted against? If not, rebalancing your forwards and mids by bringing him in could be an option.
- I agree re the defenders. One thing worth noting is that both JJ and Adams have low game counts, so if you think a lot of players will score around the same (and the same as what they're proced at), potentially picking the most durable ones could be the way to go. I too have injury risks in Rocky, Fyfe, Beams, Sandi and Lids, so personally I've gone for some very durable options elsewhere. Down back that's Howe, Rance and Montagna, and in the mids I have JPK as well as Pendles.
Hope this helps!
- Mids look good, but might be a fraction heavy given the rookies are usually best there.
- Macrae looks popular, and a fairly safe pick as a top forward. Is there a reason you've opted against? If not, rebalancing your forwards and mids by bringing him in could be an option.
- I agree re the defenders. One thing worth noting is that both JJ and Adams have low game counts, so if you think a lot of players will score around the same (and the same as what they're proced at), potentially picking the most durable ones could be the way to go. I too have injury risks in Rocky, Fyfe, Beams, Sandi and Lids, so personally I've gone for some very durable options elsewhere. Down back that's Howe, Rance and Montagna, and in the mids I have JPK as well as Pendles.
Hope this helps!
Dahlhaus, MacRae and Heeney are all round 11 bye! Dahl is a lock for me but I don't want to take all 3 so one of the other 2 has to go. I'm wondering if Macrae is having to share his job more with Beveridge coming from the Hawthorn school of sharing where as Heeney looks like he will get a bigger piece of the Sydney pie?
Edit: I do enjoy reading your team reviews Darkie.
Edit: I do enjoy reading your team reviews Darkie.
It's a strong point Freo, that might be it.
I have yet to fully figure out the implications of the round 9 bye, and I generally try to pick my first choice side ex byes and then rebalance as needed, rather than have a more balanced (but maybe slightly more compromised?) team in the picker, if that makes sense. Inevitably someone will be injured or an unexpected rookie pops up, so I'd rather know who my first choice premiums are so I can adjust accordingly.
With that said, I currently have something like 1, 6, 2, 6 as my bye structure, so clearly it needs some work.
On Heeney, he's obviously cheaper in dollar terms and probably more underpriced than Macrae, but how confident are you he will hit keeper level? To me he looks to have a lot of the right attributes long-term, but the Mod Squad's views were a little less bullish on his ceiling than I might have expected, and I'm now less convinced than I was. He does look ripped, but if fitness was an issue last year (it was) playing forward-mid, and he's now notably heavier and hopefully playing mid-forward, could it be a limiting factor again this year? He didn't have much TOG upside last year, so it's really more upside in midfield minutes that is required. The opportunity is there, but I'm not certain he yet has the tank to take full advantage of that.
The flip side is that he averaged 80 with 17 touches a game, or 4.8 points per disposal. You'd think that could easily go to more than 20 touches playing midfield, which gets him close to 100. His points per disposal could decline a bit with fewer goals and maybe marks, but Heeney only averaged 1.2 goals per game (vs Parker at 1.0), so maybe the headwind from fewer marks can be overcome without too much difficulty.
I have yet to fully figure out the implications of the round 9 bye, and I generally try to pick my first choice side ex byes and then rebalance as needed, rather than have a more balanced (but maybe slightly more compromised?) team in the picker, if that makes sense. Inevitably someone will be injured or an unexpected rookie pops up, so I'd rather know who my first choice premiums are so I can adjust accordingly.
With that said, I currently have something like 1, 6, 2, 6 as my bye structure, so clearly it needs some work.
On Heeney, he's obviously cheaper in dollar terms and probably more underpriced than Macrae, but how confident are you he will hit keeper level? To me he looks to have a lot of the right attributes long-term, but the Mod Squad's views were a little less bullish on his ceiling than I might have expected, and I'm now less convinced than I was. He does look ripped, but if fitness was an issue last year (it was) playing forward-mid, and he's now notably heavier and hopefully playing mid-forward, could it be a limiting factor again this year? He didn't have much TOG upside last year, so it's really more upside in midfield minutes that is required. The opportunity is there, but I'm not certain he yet has the tank to take full advantage of that.
The flip side is that he averaged 80 with 17 touches a game, or 4.8 points per disposal. You'd think that could easily go to more than 20 touches playing midfield, which gets him close to 100. His points per disposal could decline a bit with fewer goals and maybe marks, but Heeney only averaged 1.2 goals per game (vs Parker at 1.0), so maybe the headwind from fewer marks can be overcome without too much difficulty.
Your record indicates you don't need much help Snowman, but I think I recall you offering me good advice last year on the risks of running with a cheap R2, so I'll see what I can offer below:
- Laird is a great player, but unless he continues with some natural progression, he has hit around 97-8 for the last two years on my count, adjusting for low TOG games and so on. Priced at 97, it feels like there's not a lot of "fat" on offer to help ensure he's a top defender. I wonder whether he's a few points below that this year. I was also a little surprised at how his injury was handled last year - generally I'd prefer to know how long a player is out with some certainty, rather than have to guess and just have it dragged out. Could be a one-off or it could be ongoing - I think it's sometimes down to the player and often more down to the club, albeit it's the same club this year, so the risk may be ongoing. In any case, Laird is unlikely to derail you, but I'm not sure he'd be my first choice.
- Adams and Hartlett both seem to miss a lot of games - just something to be wary of.
- I see you are a Saints fan, which now makes a couple of you that have not gone for Montagna - is there any reason for that? To me he looks a somewhat safer bet than many others. I may be missing something on him?
- I like your mids, although I do think Gaz is a risk. I was prepared to take the injury risk given his record, ceiling and pricing, but I have recently chosen other options given Gaz's trade request and the fact that he's stepped down from the captaincy. To me his risk has gone up again, potentially significantly, so I'm not sure there's enough of a risk premium there to compensate. Personally, I've gone for Rocky, who might have similar attributes but potentially be a bit safer as an overall pick.
- I have the same ruck line. I personally think Sandi deserves the bold font (especially vs Ryder, Heeney et al), but that is semantics. I think Goldy and Sandi is the best risk-reward on offer by a distance.
- Out of interest, is Ryder being picked largely to cover for the cheap R2 issue? If so, I'm wondering whether R-F cover is less required this year, because Giles is probably a viable trade-in option if Sandi does get injured. [I currently have Ryder as a lineball keeper in my forward line notwithstanding the cover he provides, and he has the advantage of being a R9 bye player.]
Overall, I think this looks like a good side. If you needed to free up cash, I'd say the mids look heavy-ish, with Gaz or Bont the ones I'd consider trimming from that line, although I'd probably trim Adams or Hartlett as first choices from your overall side, given my comments above.
Interested in your thoughts on Montagna and the R2 situation.
Good luck.
- Laird is a great player, but unless he continues with some natural progression, he has hit around 97-8 for the last two years on my count, adjusting for low TOG games and so on. Priced at 97, it feels like there's not a lot of "fat" on offer to help ensure he's a top defender. I wonder whether he's a few points below that this year. I was also a little surprised at how his injury was handled last year - generally I'd prefer to know how long a player is out with some certainty, rather than have to guess and just have it dragged out. Could be a one-off or it could be ongoing - I think it's sometimes down to the player and often more down to the club, albeit it's the same club this year, so the risk may be ongoing. In any case, Laird is unlikely to derail you, but I'm not sure he'd be my first choice.
- Adams and Hartlett both seem to miss a lot of games - just something to be wary of.
- I see you are a Saints fan, which now makes a couple of you that have not gone for Montagna - is there any reason for that? To me he looks a somewhat safer bet than many others. I may be missing something on him?
- I like your mids, although I do think Gaz is a risk. I was prepared to take the injury risk given his record, ceiling and pricing, but I have recently chosen other options given Gaz's trade request and the fact that he's stepped down from the captaincy. To me his risk has gone up again, potentially significantly, so I'm not sure there's enough of a risk premium there to compensate. Personally, I've gone for Rocky, who might have similar attributes but potentially be a bit safer as an overall pick.
- I have the same ruck line. I personally think Sandi deserves the bold font (especially vs Ryder, Heeney et al), but that is semantics. I think Goldy and Sandi is the best risk-reward on offer by a distance.
- Out of interest, is Ryder being picked largely to cover for the cheap R2 issue? If so, I'm wondering whether R-F cover is less required this year, because Giles is probably a viable trade-in option if Sandi does get injured. [I currently have Ryder as a lineball keeper in my forward line notwithstanding the cover he provides, and he has the advantage of being a R9 bye player.]
Overall, I think this looks like a good side. If you needed to free up cash, I'd say the mids look heavy-ish, with Gaz or Bont the ones I'd consider trimming from that line, although I'd probably trim Adams or Hartlett as first choices from your overall side, given my comments above.
Interested in your thoughts on Montagna and the R2 situation.
Good luck.
Heeney's disposals per game went up as the year wore on and with Tom Mitchell gone and Heeney coming into his third year he does appear to be on the rise. He's priced at 80 and F6 this year looks like D6 most other years so a 90 average from him wouldn't be the reason you lose supercoach. MacRae's disposals went up this year but he had less kicks, less tackles and less contested possessions so it appears on the surface that he spent less time in the engine room. I don't think MacRae is a bad pick but he and Heeney look to me like they could give you a similar return.
My Team; quite happy with this but also rethinking of whether or not to downgrade 1 mid prem and use it for a F4 or D4
DEF: Docherty, Shaw, Rance, McGrath, Scharenberg, Hampton (Ryan, Stewart)
MID: Danger, Pendles, JPK, Fyfe, TMitchell, DBeams, Foote, SPP (Myers, Barrett, Pickett)
RUC: Gawn, Sandi (Stnadica)
FWD: Dahlhaus, Macrae, Ryder, McCluggage, Ainsworth, Ahern (Ridley, Eddy)
DEF: Docherty, Shaw, Rance, McGrath, Scharenberg, Hampton (Ryan, Stewart)
MID: Danger, Pendles, JPK, Fyfe, TMitchell, DBeams, Foote, SPP (Myers, Barrett, Pickett)
RUC: Gawn, Sandi (Stnadica)
FWD: Dahlhaus, Macrae, Ryder, McCluggage, Ainsworth, Ahern (Ridley, Eddy)
- Joined
- 12 Oct 2013
- Messages
- 2,924
- Likes
- 267
- AFL Club
- Bulldogs
- Joined
- 12 Oct 2013
- Messages
- 2,924
- Likes
- 267
- AFL Club
- Bulldogs
Strong side. Caddy, Ryder and even Heeney have some question marks over their heads and for different reasons. I am looking at both Ryder and Heeney who have a lot of upside and seem very undervalued coming into the new season. Your best bet is to start working on the rookies. There are a few in your side that aren't going to feature early for their teams like Ahern (ACL injury), Battle (battling behind the three St Kilda forwards), Jarman, Guthrie and Hinge (rookie listed), and Freeman (just general soft tissue worries). I might even throw in Black into the unsure mix as he hasn't played senior footy for a while and KPP rookies don't general score as well as other players. A few rookies I have noted down while researching are
- Nic Newman (Swans) who will be 24 next season and I believe just signed a new 2-year deal despite not debuting yet. He is an attacking half back standing at 188cm. I have a general feeling that McVeigh will begin to be phased out of the side and Newman might be the first replacement.
- Jarrod Berry (Lions) with a team on the rebuild, he looks the perfect fit to feature early and often as a young, talented half back who has the mature body to play in the midfield and string a few games together. He was a captain for Vic Country I believe which demonstrates a leadership quality that Brisbane will be pleased to have down back. He has three very close mates in McCluggage, Cox and Witherden, so no homesickness.
- Luke Ryan (Freo) a VFL product who had the most intercept disposals in the league last season. A mature recruit that could feature round 1 as Freo begin to play more youth. I believe he plays off the half back and is in the mould of a slower JJ (because he is lightning quick).
- Tom Stewart (Cats) is a KPP recruited from the VFL but averaged the second most disposals for a key defender. This tells me that he enjoys finding the ball himself and running off his opponent. Geelong has an aging defense with Harry Taylor and Tom Lonergan.
- Other players of note are Foote, Brodie, Darcy Cameron, Eddy, Bolton, McCluggage, Bowes.
- Nic Newman (Swans) who will be 24 next season and I believe just signed a new 2-year deal despite not debuting yet. He is an attacking half back standing at 188cm. I have a general feeling that McVeigh will begin to be phased out of the side and Newman might be the first replacement.
- Jarrod Berry (Lions) with a team on the rebuild, he looks the perfect fit to feature early and often as a young, talented half back who has the mature body to play in the midfield and string a few games together. He was a captain for Vic Country I believe which demonstrates a leadership quality that Brisbane will be pleased to have down back. He has three very close mates in McCluggage, Cox and Witherden, so no homesickness.
- Luke Ryan (Freo) a VFL product who had the most intercept disposals in the league last season. A mature recruit that could feature round 1 as Freo begin to play more youth. I believe he plays off the half back and is in the mould of a slower JJ (because he is lightning quick).
- Tom Stewart (Cats) is a KPP recruited from the VFL but averaged the second most disposals for a key defender. This tells me that he enjoys finding the ball himself and running off his opponent. Geelong has an aging defense with Harry Taylor and Tom Lonergan.
- Other players of note are Foote, Brodie, Darcy Cameron, Eddy, Bolton, McCluggage, Bowes.
First proper draft! (thanks to freo's spreadsheet)
Doch, Shaw, Adams, McGrath, Scharenberg, Berry (Newman, Ryan)
Danger, Pendles, Bont, Fyfe, Beams, D.Swallow, Foote, Myers (SPP, Barrett, Freeman)
Goldy, Sandi (Strndica)
Dahl, Macrae, Heeney, Bennell, Roughy, Pickett (Balic, Eddy)
Bank $40k
Bennell and Roughy too much value to ignore in a forward line where the obvious options are thin but carry obvious risks. My strategy might involve offloading one or both of these players during the bye to avoid donuts.
Doch, Shaw, Adams, McGrath, Scharenberg, Berry (Newman, Ryan)
Danger, Pendles, Bont, Fyfe, Beams, D.Swallow, Foote, Myers (SPP, Barrett, Freeman)
Goldy, Sandi (Strndica)
Dahl, Macrae, Heeney, Bennell, Roughy, Pickett (Balic, Eddy)
Bank $40k
Bennell and Roughy too much value to ignore in a forward line where the obvious options are thin but carry obvious risks. My strategy might involve offloading one or both of these players during the bye to avoid donuts.
- Status