Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Based on my projections Rowsus will hit 1,000,000 in 2025!

Hmmmm....... 3 years and 3 weeks for the first 500,000 and you are putting me down for 8 years for the 2nd 500,000!!!!

I missed guessing when I'd hit the 500,000 mark by about 1 month. With the popularity of the site growing, if I can maintain the rage, I think I'll hit the 1,000,000 mark in 2020.

 

[Impromptu]

Hmmmm....... 3 years and 3 weeks for the first 500,000 and you are putting me down for 8 years for the 2nd 500,000!!!!

I missed guessing when I'd hit the 500,000 mark by about 1 month. With the popularity of the site growing, if I can maintain the rage, I think I'll hit the 1,000,000 mark in 2020.

Hahaha underpromise overperform (is that the saying?)

 

[albie]

Rowsus,

Can you pls suggest what is the minimum average that you would be happy with with your D6, F6 and M8, on that basis of choosing 3 value selections for each in your starting teams. Yes, this will partially depend on the price and extent of value you have gone for.

Ie, Blake Acres of Touk Miller --- was do they need to average to at worst, be break-even. For Mids, a Beams or a 450k type (Josh Kelly tempting me) - 106 and 22 games good enough? For Def, a Hibber, McMillan or Hartlett type (420k ish).


Thanks in advance

 

[KLo30]

Hahaha underpromise overperform (is that the saying?)

Ah.........your wedding vows!

Also, "If a man says he is going to do something, he'll do it. He doesn't need to be reminded every six months!"

 

[Prochard]

Hey Pro,
I like McDonald, and keep trying to squeeze him into my team, but he always seems to be the one that makes way, when I change my structure again. I think he's a really good chance to be a good pick, as long as his brother or someone else can give him a bit of freedom by locking down the oppositions best tall Forward. We saw his brother improve towards the end of last season, and if he can carry that into this season, then T McD should be ok.

Do you still have Hodge and Burgoyne in your team?

Also just on Mcdonald, his brother Oscar seem to have performed better today in the JLT match. I know it doesnt mean much but is there a chance that Tom plays the more defensive FB instead of Oscar? Or are they just trying different things out?

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus,

Can you pls suggest what is the minimum average that you would be happy with with your D6, F6 and M8, on that basis of choosing 3 value selections for each in your starting teams. Yes, this will partially depend on the price and extent of value you have gone for.

Ie, Blake Acres of Touk Miller --- was do they need to average to at worst, be break-even. For Mids, a Beams or a 450k type (Josh Kelly tempting me) - 106 and 22 games good enough? For Def, a Hibber, McMillan or Hartlett type (420k ish).


Thanks in advance

albie,
Defs PIT60 of 90, so if they only play 19 games, they need to average 94
Mids PIT70 of 103, so if they only play 19 games, they need to average 108
Fwds PIT60 of 92, so if they only play 19 games, they need to average 97
You need to keep in mind, that once a player passes a certain price, they pretty much need to be considered a Keeper, if selected in your starting team. This will vary from person to person, as everyone has a different definition of "success".
To me, if I end up using a player as a Stepping Stone, I would like him to increase $100k in value, but would live with an $80k increase. Based on the numbers I have given you above, it means my cut off point where a player is too expensive to be considered a Stepping Stone is:
around $320k for a Def
around $380k for a Mid
around $330k for a Fwd
Anything above those prices, and you pretty much have to be of the opinion that they'll see the season out in your team, which is a good demonstration as to why so many Midpriced players are either Traps or just plain old bad selections.

 

[Rowsus]

Do you still have Hodge and Burgoyne in your team?

Not at the moment.

Also just on Mcdonald, his brother Oscar seem to have performed better today in the JLT match. I know it doesnt mean much but is there a chance that Tom plays the more defensive FB instead of Oscar? Or are they just trying different things out?

I'd be really surprised if that happens. It really takes a lot to learn to play a Rance type role, and knowing when you can back yourself to run off your opponent, and when to stay at home and defend. Oscar isn't ready for that yet.

 

[Beached az]

Hi Rowsus - please feel free to redirect me if you've covered him already - but interested in your thoughts on Callum Mills. A lot going against him in his second year but a gun player in a top 4 team, could he get up to a defender keeper average? It would take a bit of a jump from 77 last year and his ceiling seems worryingly low, but he was very consistent and is very highly rated. I realise the pre-season game was artificially inflated by unrealistic midfield time but I still see his upside as bigger than other backmen under $500k.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus - please feel free to redirect me if you've covered him already - but interested in your thoughts on Callum Mills. A lot going against him in his second year but a gun player in a top 4 team, could he get up to a defender keeper average? It would take a bit of a jump from 77 last year and his ceiling seems worryingly low, but he was very consistent and is very highly rated. I realise the pre-season game was artificially inflated by unrealistic midfield time but I still see his upside as bigger than other backmen under $500k.

Hi Beached az,
it's certainly possible, but history is against him. Hibberd had only played 22 games when he broke out in 2013 with a 22/96 season. The big differences being, that was Hibberd's 3rd season, and he was 23 when the season begun. Bennell was only 19 coming into his 2nd season, and went 22/98. Bontempelli and Cripps went 103 and 96 in their 2nd seasons. Selwood and Wines went 98 and 100 in their 2nd seasons. The main things most of those guys had in common, is they were playing SC-friendly roles, in teams with a lot less depth of talent than Sydney has. Apart from Hibberd, they all played Mid/Fwd type roles, so will Mills be able to do it as a Mid/Def type role? It seems to be a risk, and I would think he might possibly need an injury or two, to those in front of him in the Midfield rotation, to reach figures we'd be happy with this season. Having said that, it would not surprise me at all, to see him in the top 8 PIT60 Defs come seasons end! I just think history makes the risk too great, unless the injuries needed occur.

 

[RedBlueBald]

Hey Rowsus

Hodge had a down year last year but seems to be firing this preseason. Other than his age, can you see a downside? The midfield is down on stars and I think he'll be back in the thick of it - very possibly a top 6. What are your thoughts stat-wise?

If Tuohy continues to take the Enright role off half-back throughout the JLT then I'll be tempted to start him as well.

Then I look at my 3 defensive premiums and it reads Laird, Hodge, Tuohy - and then I facepalm myself because it looks atrocious.

Can I only really take 1 of either Hodge or Tuohy? If that's the case then Tuohy hasn't missed a game in 4 years, and with a change of role.. well.. I think I'd have to go with the Irishman.. all of this off the back of one JLT game.. but nevertheless..

Let's say Hodge plays 18 games and Tuohy plays 22.. what averages would they need to hit to be worthwhile?

Thanks in advance - and congrats on the 500,000!

 

[THCLT]

Hi Rows,

Figured I'd chimed in with a question of my own. Whilst the majority of coaches are currently focussing on 'beefing up' their midfield and settling their rucks set up, I've been looking to identify some potential bargain/value players to possibly start off with. When you have some time, can you cast your eyes over the following and give me your opinion and whether you feel there's any value in starting them? I do acknowledge that they are all returning from a long injury layoff, hence the potential value.

Dylan Roberton
Kade Kolodjashnij

Jaegar O'Meara
David Swallow

Jamie Elliott
Jarryd Roughead

 

[RedBlueBald]

Hi Rows,

Figured I'd chimed in with a question of my own. Whilst the majority of coaches are currently focussing on 'beefing up' their midfield and settling their rucks set up, I've been looking to identify some potential bargain/value players to possibly start off with. When you have some time, can you cast your eyes over the following and give me your opinion and whether you feel there's any value in starting them? I do acknowledge that they are all returning from a long injury layoff, hence the potential value.

Dylan Roberton
Kade Kolodjashnij

Jaegar O'Meara
David Swallow

Jamie Elliott
Jarryd Roughead

Keep an eye on Elliott - minor ankle strain on Monday - they say it's nothing serious but will miss a few training sessions (probably the next JLT) and these things tend to happen down at the Holden Centre..

 

[TommyGobbler]

Hi Rowsus,

Do you have any stats handy for how players score after missing a full season? Libba last year is one that comes to mind, he only managed 90, couldn't get back to his best in that first year.

This year circumstances are a bit different with the banned players missing a year but not through injury, but the stats would still be interesting in regards to Roughy, Swallow, JOM, Thurlow.

Thanks!

 

[THCLT]

Hi Rowsus,

Do you have any stats handy for how players score after missing a full season? Libba last year is one that comes to mind, he only managed 90, couldn't get back to his best in that first year.

This year circumstances are a bit different with the banned players missing a year but not through injury, but the stats would still be interesting in regards to Roughy, Swallow, JOM, Thurlow.

Thanks!

The following is a list of players who were priced $350K+ when they had a season layoff and their stats for their returning season. I must admit that they are not all that inspiring.



Edit: I only have SC data from 2011 onwards, so obviously limited to the those years only.

 

[Bomber18]

Lenny Hayes is the best returner I think

 

[TommyGobbler]

Cheers. I'm starting to go cold on Roughy.. think he might max out at 85.

 

[Bomber18]

The following is a list of players who were priced $350K+ when they had a season layoff and their stats for their returning season. I must admit that they are not all that inspiring.

View attachment 2383

Edit: I only have SC data from 2011 onwards, so obviously limited to the those years only.

I think Lenny Hayes in 2012 also meets your criteria.
Priced at $448k and averaged 102 after an ACL.

JJK in 2013 similar success story but just misses your criteria. Priced at $278k and averaged 90 after an ACL (which was his best season at that point).

Edit: just realised you have only included players who had a full season off rather than an early ACL.

 

[Boxhead182]

Hi Rowsus,
What is your thoughts on picking Shuey as a POD. With Mitchell coming over how do you think that will effect his overall game. I really like him as a pick this year
Cheers man

 

[GoGeta]

G'day Rowsus,

Was wondering if you have any data on how JJK scores at different grounds over the last 2 years as the Eagles play away a lot early but play mostly at DS after the byes, cheers.

 

[Zoku Pops]

Hi mate,

Hope you're well and enjoying the pre-season!

How do you think Patty Cripps will fare this season? Do you think the lack of pre-season will hinder his chances of pushing 110? His last third of the year last year was awesome and he went straight onto the watch list for 2017 as he could explode but now I'm not so sure.

I'm also really keen on Tom Mitchell but worried about the Hawthorn mantra of sharing the load/points. Once again he might not be worth the potential risk but he also has massive potential. Is the Hawthorn thing too big of an unknown to start him?