Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Would like to know when is the best time to do the Nank to Gawn trade. Have enough cash and trades (6) to do it but am stuck whether to go this week or wait. My calculations have given me about 30 points vs 30k.

Thanks Liam

Hi Liam,
Gawn $551,800 B/E 184
Nank $423,400 B/E 115
I've certainly been pushing for people to deal with Nank, one way or another, for a few weeks now. I think their point difference will be somewhere in 30-35 area as well, for this week. Let's say your 30 is correct, and Gawn scores 105, and Nankervis 75. The difference in their B/E's is 69, so if Gawn outscores Nank by 30, the price difference closes by (69 -30) x $440 = $17,100 (+/-$300), so quite a bit less than your $30k scenario. I say do it!

 

[Rowsus]

Hello Rowsus

Very useful advice here. I have 10 Trades and 3 positions short ( One in DEF, SSelwd in MID and one FWD), 214K cash but cash is a limiting factor in completing my team.

The planned trades are:
RD15:
1. Beams to Pendles (could go Martin but that will mean severe compromises in DEF and FWD choices)
2. Barret to Witherden
RD 16:
3. Sharenberg to Montana ( Montana looks a solid 90's ppg)
4. Parsons to Cox (D_F)
RD 17:
5. SSelwood to Sloan (running out of cash for a better premium)
6. Rookie to Rookie
RD 18:
7. Stewart to FWD premium
Left with 3 trades

My question is: am I trading too conservatively? I see it is taking me 4 extra rounds than you to complete my team, though you have 3 trades to get you through the season from here while I have more of a risk buffer to respond to any carnage. Interested in your thoughts

Hi Cattle,
cash is definitely a limiting factor, and I'd definitely go Pendles over Martin, at the price difference. I don't think it is too conservative at all, my only question is Cox. If he plays this week, you are grabbing him after a price rise. Is there any way you can go Barrett to Cox this week, then Parsons to Witherden next week? I wouldn't change the order if it is going to disrupt your DPP links though. Aside from that, it looks like a good plan!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi again Rowsus; what is the % likelihood, in your opinion, that Shai Bolton and Max Gawn will be within $269, 600 difference of each other next week?

I would say slim.

A quick calc from my side says if Gawn scored 90, Bolton would need 180 to make up the difference.

If Gawn score a 100, Bolton would need to score at least 120.
If Bolton score a 60, Gawn would need to score less than 40.

With the above scenarios, I'd rate the likelihood that Bolton's price will be within $269,600 of Gawn's price after this round at <1%.

Hi Eagling,
Gawn $551,800 B/E 184
Bolton $199,000 B/E 15
$551,800 - $199,000 - $269,600 = $83,200.
You need the combined total, of Gawn's price drop and Bolton's price rise to equal $83,200.
$83,200 / $440 = 189. You need the combined total of what Gawn misses his B/E by, and Bolton beats his B/E by to equal 189.
Let's make an equation:
G = Gawn's score
B = Bolton's score
You need:
(184 - G) + (B - 15) = 189 => B - G = 20, so you need Bolton to outscore Gawn by 20. As given in the examples by THCLT.
Now my question would be, if Bolton outscores Gawn by 20, would you make this trade anyway?
Either Bolton has gone ballistic, and you'll want to keep him, or Gawn has failed, and you want to monitor him.
I agree with THCLT's <1%.

 

[Santoz]

Hi Santoz,
upside scenario - Higgins gets injured this week, or soon, or averages low 80's from here. Waite gets on a tear and averages 110+
downside scenario - Higgins plays the season out, and averages 100 from here, and Waite goes missing.
Even though they are miles apart, both scenarios seem possible. One thing for certain, Waite has more upside, and history, of getting on a streak than Higgins. I'd only being doing it, if you feel you need to pull a leftfield move, to keep you interest in the season alive. Sometimes it can feel like we can coast through the last part of the season, and lose a little interest, as we haven't quite achieved what we wanted. If your season is in danger of this, I say go for it. If not, it looks potentially a risk too far, unless you have about 6+ trades left, and a completed team, that will let you correct it, if it quickly goes off the rails.

Thanks greatly for the advice. 'Waite' and watch it is ...

 

[Eagling]

I would say slim.

A quick calc from my side says if Gawn scored 90, Bolton would need 180 to make up the difference.

If Gawn score a 100, Bolton would need to score at least 120.
If Bolton score a 60, Gawn would need to score less than 40.

With the above scenarios, I'd rate the likelihood that Bolton's price will be within $269,600 of Gawn's price after this round at <1%.

Thanks to you both.

Fortunately the scenario I planned involved trading Eddy to Witherden, so I have a bit of leeway if I keep Eddy and trade someone else instead.

 

[Cattleherder]

Hi Cattle,
cash is definitely a limiting factor, and I'd definitely go Pendles over Martin, at the price difference. I don't think it is too conservative at all, my only question is Cox. If he plays this week, you are grabbing him after a price rise. Is there any way you can go Barrett to Cox this week, then Parsons to Witherden next week? I wouldn't change the order if it is going to disrupt your DPP links though. Aside from that, it looks like a good plan!

Thanks Rowsus. I note your comment on Cox/Witherden and I'll see how the team selections go in an hour or so. Currently I don't have bench cover for DEF unless Sharenberg or Macready are selected, but perhaps I would be better risking a donut and focusing on cash creation with the rookies as that is my team-limiting issue. As the old chinese proverb says, "May you live in [supercoach] interesting times."

 

[BigRuss]

Hey Rowsus just wondering if I could get prices and BE for Gawn and Sloane if they both go 110 this week. Much appreciated.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus just wondering if I could get prices and BE for Gawn and Sloane if they both go 110 this week. Much appreciated.

Hey BigRuss,

Gawn $551,800 B/E 184 - scores 110 - $519,200 B/E 87

Sloane $543,300 B/E 173 - scores 110 - $515,600 B/E 118

 

[TerryB]

Hi Rowsus,
Thanks again for your feedback last week. I have taken what you said on board and have planned 1 trade in round 15 and one trade in round 16.
This is my team as it stands after round 14.



I plan to trade out Berry and trade in Tom McDonald from Melbourne. He has a 3 round average of 103 and a 5 round average of 93. His form and scoring is improving. In the last 2 seasons he has averaged 95.9 and 89.7 points, he rarely misses games through injury and has a break even of only 23. In addition to that, Melbourne are certainly one of, if not the in-form team, and will be playing for a top 4 position.

My cash balance will be 69,900 prior to round 16.
I then plan to trade out Witts (475K) or Nankervis (423K), I think it may have to be Witts, as I want to trade in Max Gawn for this round.
Gawn's price is currently 551,800 and is expected to drop to around 520,000 for round 16.
If Witts holds his price, or close to it, I can do a straight trade of Witts to Gawn. I think this will not be possible for Nankervis.
This is the proposed team for round 15. The projection is 2446



Do you think I am making the correct trades?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,
Thanks again for your feedback last week. I have taken what you said on board and have planned 1 trade in round 15 and one trade in round 16.
...........

Do you think I am making the correct trades?

Hi TerryB,
yes

 

[TerryB]

Hi TerryB,
yes

Thank you
I would like to make both the trades this week, but come up around 20K short.
I am trading in this order due to Gawn's expected price drop and McDonalds expected increase.

Good luck this round

 

[Eagling]

Hey Eagling,
I can't give you a specific reason, but I'm a bit wary with Roberton. Has he had his time in the sun, and now he'll drop back to what you used to expect from him? I don't know. Hurley has been super consistent, and we know TMc can get on a run. As I suggested last week, the return of a genuine Ruck really helps him. When Hogan and Watts are both in the team, TMc won't get to go Forward as often, but the other key to him scoring better late last year, was his brothers improvement. His brother is playing even better now, so I'm quite bullish on TMc doing ok from here. I'd choose from TMc and Hurley.



The other part of the equation was "a couple of key Mids", so no, Barlow going isn't enough.

Nailed it again, Rowsus, thank you for your insight.

 

[Cattleherder]

my only question is Cox. If he plays this week, you are grabbing him after a price rise. Is there any way you can go Barrett to Cox this week, then Parsons to Witherden next week? I wouldn't change the order if it is going to disrupt your DPP links though.

Option 1:
Rd15 Barrett > Witherden
Rd16 Parsons > Cox

Option 2:
Rd15 Parsons > Cox
Rd16 Barrett > Witherden

Based on SC Gold, Option 1 yields $338,700 against Option 2 $325,600. This is because Barret has a high BE and is projected to lose more than Cox gains by bringing him in before his price rise.

So will go Barrett > Withers today. Depending on rookies' performance this round, I may be able to max more cash out of the RD 16 trade, i.e. trading Stewart instead of Parsons.

P.S. Commiserations for last night but you had a few too many omissions and injuries IMO. As a long time Geelong supporter I know how hard it is for a team on the up to control the 'lid'.

 

[Maso]

Rowsus need your advice once again

1/ Stewart & Nank into Bont & Witherden (want his dpp and cheaper then hibberd) $165k left

or

2/ Steawrt & Ainsworth into Bont & Witherden $20k left

Best 22 would be -

D- Doc, Laird, Adams, Rance, Jones, Shaw
M- Danger, Selwood, Bont, Pendles, Rocky, Fyfe, Hannabery, Sloane, (Sselwood m9)
R- Goldy, Ryder
F- Macrae, Dahl, Buddy, Lynch, Tex, Greenwood/Nank

im torn between keeping Nank for form turn around or getting the extra cash for future trades which are starting to run thin. so is it better to keep Nank even though his form is down and just remove two rookies ?

 

[Santoz]

Hi Liam,
Gawn $551,800 B/E 184
Nank $423,400 B/E 115
I've certainly been pushing for people to deal with Nank, one way or another, for a few weeks now. I think their point difference will be somewhere in 30-35 area as well, for this week. Let's say your 30 is correct, and Gawn scores 105, and Nankervis 75. The difference in their B/E's is 69, so if Gawn outscores Nank by 30, the price difference closes by (69 -30) x $440 = $17,100 (+/-$300), so quite a bit less than your $30k scenario. I say do it!

Rowsus need your advice once again

1/ Stewart & Nank into Bont & Witherden (want his dpp and cheaper then hibberd) $165k left

or

2/ Steawrt & Ainsworth into Bont & Witherden $20k left

Best 22 would be -

D- Doc, Laird, Adams, Rance, Jones, Shaw
M- Danger, Selwood, Bont, Pendles, Rocky, Fyfe, Hannabery, Sloane, (Sselwood m9)
R- Goldy, Ryder
F- Macrae, Dahl, Buddy, Lynch, Tex, Greenwood/Nank

im torn between keeping Nank for form turn around or getting the extra cash for future trades which are starting to run thin. so is it better to keep Nank even though his form is down and just remove two rookies ?

This may help.

 

[KLo30]

Rowsus need your advice once again

1/ Stewart & Nank into Bont & Witherden (want his dpp and cheaper then hibberd) $165k left

or

2/ Steawrt & Ainsworth into Bont & Witherden $20k left

Best 22 would be -

D- Doc, Laird, Adams, Rance, Jones, Shaw
M- Danger, Selwood, Bont, Pendles, Rocky, Fyfe, Hannabery, Sloane, (Sselwood m9)
R- Goldy, Ryder
F- Macrae, Dahl, Buddy, Lynch, Tex, Greenwood/Nank

im torn between keeping Nank for form turn around or getting the extra cash for future trades which are starting to run thin. so is it better to keep Nank even though his form is down and just remove two rookies ?

Option 1, then next week Scooter to Gawn (Ryder to FWD & Greenwood to MID)

 

[Maso]

This may help.

Option 1, then next week Scooter to Gawn (Ryder to FWD & Greenwood to MID)

Thanks guys

 

[Creeker]

Rowsus need your advice once again

1/ Stewart & Nank into Bont & Witherden (want his dpp and cheaper then hibberd) $165k left

or

2/ Steawrt & Ainsworth into Bont & Witherden $20k left

Best 22 would be -

D- Doc, Laird, Adams, Rance, Jones, Shaw
M- Danger, Selwood, Bont, Pendles, Rocky, Fyfe, Hannabery, Sloane, (Sselwood m9)
R- Goldy, Ryder
F- Macrae, Dahl, Buddy, Lynch, Tex, Greenwood/Nank

im torn between keeping Nank for form turn around or getting the extra cash for future trades which are starting to run thin. so is it better to keep Nank even though his form is down and just remove two rookies ?

What's all this about ?
Round 15 and Maso still has trades ! Very impressive.

 

[Rowsus]

Option 1:
Rd15 Barrett > Witherden
Rd16 Parsons > Cox

Option 2:
Rd15 Parsons > Cox
Rd16 Barrett > Witherden

Based on SC Gold, Option 1 yields $338,700 against Option 2 $325,600. This is because Barret has a high BE and is projected to lose more than Cox gains by bringing him in before his price rise.

So will go Barrett > Withers today. Depending on rookies' performance this round, I may be able to max more cash out of the RD 16 trade, i.e. trading Stewart instead of Parsons.

P.S. Commiserations for last night but you had a few too many omissions and injuries IMO. As a long time Geelong supporter I know how hard it is for a team on the up to control the 'lid'.

Yeah, it was just a game too far. 4 games in 18 days, and we won 3 of them. I'm not sure anyone has ever won 4 out out of 4, in such a short period!

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus need your advice once again

1/ Stewart & Nank into Bont & Witherden (want his dpp and cheaper then hibberd) $165k left

or

2/ Steawrt & Ainsworth into Bont & Witherden $20k left

Best 22 would be -

D- Doc, Laird, Adams, Rance, Jones, Shaw
M- Danger, Selwood, Bont, Pendles, Rocky, Fyfe, Hannabery, Sloane, (Sselwood m9)
R- Goldy, Ryder
F- Macrae, Dahl, Buddy, Lynch, Tex, Greenwood/Nank

im torn between keeping Nank for form turn around or getting the extra cash for future trades which are starting to run thin. so is it better to keep Nank even though his form is down and just remove two rookies ?

This may help.

Option 1, then next week Scooter to Gawn (Ryder to FWD & Greenwood to MID)

Thanks guys

All correct. If Nank can't be put to F7, he needs to be traded out, otherwise you will leak 20+ points/week.

What's all this about ?
Round 15 and Maso still has trades ! Very impressive.

Unheard of. Next the thing we will hear, he has given up beer, too!