Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowan,

Reiterating the sentiment of many of our members by saying a BIG Thank You for continuing to inject your pearl of wisdoms into this amazing thread. Over 8,000 posts and no doubt countless hours of research and preparation in order to provide us with concise and clear directions in our time of need...just WOW!

I'm going to get in early for season 2018 by asking who you think/believe the early 'value' candidates are?

Hi Thanh,
thanks for the good words, and welcome back to my scribblings for 2018!
A lot really depends on pre-season fitness and form, but at this stage I will be keeping an eye on (for potential value picks):
Ade: Ellis-Yolman
Bris: Christensen, Mathieson
Carl: Byrne, Lobbe
Coll: Oxley, Mayne
Ess:
Freo:
GC: Brodie, Bowes, Young
Geel:
GWS: Kennedy
Haw: O'Meara
Melb: Hunt, Balic, Vandenburg, Smith
Nth:
Port: Trengove
Rich: Graham, Townsend
StK: Longer, Gresham, Armitage
Syd: Aliir
WBull: Crozier, Redpath
WC: Ah Chee

 

[Rowsus]

LOL can Rowsus' thread get to 1,000,000 views (714,000 now)?

The question of how quickly I get there might hinge on whether the 46,000+ views the original Questions For Rowsus get counted or not!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,
welcome back for 2018
Just a quickie to see if you had previously done any analysis on the affect of Sandilands playing/not playing on the scores of Fyfe/Neale in the past?
I thought i remember seeing something once, if not it probably wont take too long to do myself.
Thanks!!

It's not one I've done before, and the sample sizes aren't huge. Sandilands game counts since 2014 are: 21, 21, 5, 10.

Fyfe
2014: Season 18/122.3 - With Sandi 17/123.5 - Without Sandi 1/102.0
2015: Season 18/124.3 - With Sandi 18/124.3 - Without Sandi 0/000.0
2016: Season 5/105.4 - With Sandi 2/136.0 - Without Sandi 3/85.0
2017: Season 21/108.8 - With Sandi 10/101.3 - Without Sandi 11/115.6
Total: Season 62/116.9 - With Sandi 47/119.6 - Without Sandi 15/108.6

Fyfe's 2016 Without Sandi contains an injury affected 57.

Neale
2014: Season 21/87.2 - With Sandi 20/88.7 - Without Sandi 1/58.0
2015: Season 22/104.3 - With Sandi 21/105.1 - Without Sandi 1/87.0
2016: Season 22/112.6 - With Sandi 5/102.0 - Without Sandi 17/115.7
2017: Season 21/109.0 - With Sandi 10/120.6 - Without Sandi 11/98.5
Total: Season 86/103.4 - With Sandi 56/101.7 - Without Sandi 30/106.5

My general opinion on Rucks and Midfielders, is that Rucks, good or poor, have very little affect on the Midfielders scores. But good Midfielders can have an affect on a Rucks score!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus.

Hope it is not too early to start throwing questions at you?

It can be difficult to make decisions on players from the team that you support so I am interested in your thoughts on Luke McDonald, Ryan Clarke and Mason Wood.

Thanks in advance

Hey mate, as an avid north supporter as well I thought I may give you my opinions on the players you mentioned, without the statistical brilliant of row.
Wood- injuries clearly the issue with this guy and the club definitely want to be cautious with him, so I see him missing one or two regardless of how he is tracking. Needs to find a bit more consistency to really make the jump. See more value in bennell, Christensen etc
Clarke- really excited about his kid. Great tank but just needs to learn to use the footy a bit better. Birchall again better value
Lmac- by far the most sc relevant player on our list this season. Can see him easily going 90+ over 22 games. Should get more midfield minutes ala late last year and loves to kick the footy. Only thing is there more reliable players around the same price point

Hi Mudflap,
bender is a good SC judge (as seen by his 5 medals), and a keen North fan. I bow to his judgement on North players, as he would be more aware of their circumstances than I.
I will say, bender's thoughts pretty much mirrored mine anyway!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Just wondering which players will be getting tagged mostly this year
And is it bad to have 4-5 of those players in your team
E.g. dusty, beams, titch, Zerret

All four of those mentioned are fine with a tag as far as I'm concerned. I'm happy to run with all bar Beams, who I see as missing a game or two through injury.

Hey Lgndhen23,
it's important to recognise the difference between Run With and Tag.
Tag is where a player will totally sacrifice his own game, to try and completely negate his opponent. He will quite often go to a contest and not try and get the ball, but just stop his direct opponent from getting it. (Think Jacobs at North 3 years ago, and Crowley at Freo)
Run With means the player will go with his opponent to the contest, and try and beat him by winning the ball himself.

In SC terms, you should never NOT pick a player because you think he will get tagged too often. It's unlikely he will get tagged that much more this season, than he was last season, and his most recent figures were good enough for you to be considering him, including any Tag affected scores.

In real terms, hardly any teams Tag anymore. They are much more likely to use Run With roles than Taggers. The good Midfielders are contested beasts, quite often running around 50% Contested Possessions/Disposal anyway, so there is little cause for concern.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Im keen on starting Rory Lobb in my fwd line this year but would just like some confirmation on his scores whilst he is the sole ruck or with dawson simpson in the side also.
I think he should get the solo ruck duty, what are your thoughts can you see dawson taking many points off him even if he does play?

Cheers mate.

Hi BTJ,
Simpson has been at GWS for 2 seasons now, and only cracked it for 2 games: Rnds 19 & 21 last season.
Mummy missed both of those games, and Simpson carried most of the Ruck load those 2 games.
2 things you should note. Cameron also missed 1 of those games, and Lobb is a much better Forward than Simspon, so in at least one of those games, Lobb was required up Forward.
If Patton, Cameron and Lobb are all fit, I think Simpson doesn't play. If any of those 3 get injured, he does, which means those that take Lobb should also be monitoring Patton and Cameron for fitness!
If Simpson does play, I believe Lobb will become a regrettable pick, depending on the opposition, week by week.

 

[bianchije]

thanks rowsus, looks like they were both affected by injury/role more than anything else. legend

 

[BigRuss]

Hi Rowsus just thought Id pop n to grab your opinion on Toby McLean. 4/62, 12/70, 19/85 looks a very promising upwards trend for a breakout, especially as a forward. Averaged 72 over the first 8 weeks and 93 for the back half o the season after 3 weeks off. I've been trying to find his heat maps for last season but not having any luck so far so Im finding it hard to sort whether the score increase is from a role change or natural progression.

While I have you, who do you think the pick of the 400-480ish forwards.

Cheers.

 

[chels]

Hi Big Russ, Toby got more midfield time post the byes and was (IMO) fortunate to retain the F part of his designation. His increased mid time seemed to mirror Dalhaus's decreased time. Perhaps a sort of correlation there Rowsus? I'd like to see how the two of them line up in 2019 but for now Toby would be my choice.

BTW, there was a delightful story from recent Dogs' training of Toby getting clipped high, going down with the impact and then appealing for a "free" which broke up the netire group. Long time since he has done the "Duckwood."

 

[BigRuss]

Hi Big Russ, Toby got more midfield time post the byes and was (IMO) fortunate to retain the F part of his designation. His increased mid time seemed to mirror Dalhaus's decreased time. Perhaps a sort of correlation there Rowsus? I'd like to see how the two of them line up in 2019 but for now Toby would be my choice.

BTW, there was a delightful story from recent Dogs' training of Toby getting clipped high, going down with the impact and then appealing for a "free" which broke up the netire group. Long time since he has done the "Duckwood."

I dug a bit deeper last night and from what I could find his increased mid minutes were on the back of Lin Jongs absence from the midfield. Presumably Jongs ACL keeps him out for the season and Toby retains the mid minutes. At this point I have neither he or Dahl in my side but I'm possibly leaning to include Toby if I decide to take one of the 450ish forwards.

 

[Courtesans]

Hi Rowan,

Hope you are well buddy. I am keen to start Barlow. He is getting on but a class player in a gazless midfield has me interested. I would envision he may play many roles, mid, run with, tagger, forward but should be where the action is. A bit of a general as the season wears on perhaps. A proven track record, new challenge. I like the way he plays. A risk, all players are. Apparently very fit in the preseason. He should have much to offer Gold Coast. I reckon he is worth a punt. What do you think Rowan?

Slainte,

Keith

 

[Blaze]

Hi Rowsus

Can I add another angle on to Keith's question above about Barlow who interests me as well.

What are your thoughts on the value of starting a Barlow or Devon Smith type in the fwds comparabily to a Coniglio in the mids who is a similar or even a bit cheaper price?

On the surface Coniglio seems the most likely to average maybe even 10ppg more but he still may not be up to a top 10 mid for the season. There is a plethora of fwd/mid rookies this year so structurally it is easy to start with a coniglio at M6 and not miss out on good mid rookies.

On the other hand Smith and Barlow have the better chance of matching it with comparable fowards and being Top 6 for the year......but they are also unlikely to reach an unattainable price so could be traded in later.

Can we establish a points value on this somehow? is there value to starting the extra bankable forward over the speculative mid at the same price?

This is doing my head in and I would love to hear your thoughts!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus just thought Id pop n to grab your opinion on Toby McLean. 4/62, 12/70, 19/85 looks a very promising upwards trend for a breakout, especially as a forward. Averaged 72 over the first 8 weeks and 93 for the back half o the season after 3 weeks off. I've been trying to find his heat maps for last season but not having any luck so far so Im finding it hard to sort whether the score increase is from a role change or natural progression.

While I have you, who do you think the pick of the 400-480ish forwards.

Cheers.

Hi Big Russ, Toby got more midfield time post the byes and was (IMO) fortunate to retain the F part of his designation. His increased mid time seemed to mirror Dalhaus's decreased time. Perhaps a sort of correlation there Rowsus? I'd like to see how the two of them line up in 2019 but for now Toby would be my choice.

BTW, there was a delightful story from recent Dogs' training of Toby getting clipped high, going down with the impact and then appealing for a "free" which broke up the netire group. Long time since he has done the "Duckwood."

I dug a bit deeper last night and from what I could find his increased mid minutes were on the back of Lin Jongs absence from the midfield. Presumably Jongs ACL keeps him out for the season and Toby retains the mid minutes. At this point I have neither he or Dahl in my side but I'm possibly leaning to include Toby if I decide to take one of the 450ish forwards.

Hi BigRuss (and chels),
believe it or not, this is one of the tougher questions I have ever been asked here!
Without a full list of stats and heat maps, it's really hard to determine what happened with McLean, but here are things we do know:
You are spot on about the timing coinciding with the Lin Jong injury.
The Bulldogs play a Hawthorn type model Midfield, where so many players rotate through, it's going to be hard to pick any of them as good SC Mids (I'm looking at you, Bont!). Hawthorn at it's peak rarely produced good SC Mids. Fortunately, you are not stuck with McLean as Mid only, but it should give an indication, that any permanent type improvement he shows might be capped by this factor.
Normally we can try and find something in the stats we do have access to, to show a player has shifted from a Def or Fwd role, to more Mid time. McLean has nearly all of those indicators. Probably enough to say it happened, without having access to his heat maps. In the case of a small Forward going to the Midfield, you are looking for:
An increase in Inside 50's, as he spending more time outside the arc. Rnds 1-13 3.1/game. Rnds 14-23 4.1/game (check)
An increase in Rebound 50's, as he's pushing deeper now. Rnds 1-13 0.6/game. Rnds 14-23 1.0/game (check)
An increase in Clearances, as he attends more stoppages. Rnds 1-13 1.8/game. Rnds 14-23 4.1/game (CHECK)
An increase in Contested Possession rate. Rnds 1-13 33.7%. Rnds 14-23 43.7% (check)
There are a few other smaller ones, but they are the main ones, so it looks like there was no doubt he played significantly more Mid time after Round 13, when Jong got injured. Even with that, I wouldn't be confidently predicting he can reach Forward Keeper status. From what I understand, Jong will be back very early in the season, maybe even round 1. If that even takes away half of McLean's Mid time, he might be mired in that awkward low 90's area. It's a very grey area. None of the Bulldogs retirement/delistings open the door for Midtime, with Boyd, Murphy and Stringer all playing some Mid Time, but not enough to open a door for McLean to get significantly more.
You probably won't lose too much value on him, if it goes wrong, and there is potential for upside, I just think I'd want a more positive lead to be taking a player at his price, and his history, especially in a team with the Midfield model the Bulldogs (and now many other teams) use. His fall back role is that poisonous small Forward role!

As to which Forwards I like in that $400-$480k area, I only have 2 right now, and only one I'm looking at as a long term pick. It might be silly using the words "long term" with Barlow, but he has never been out of my team since news of his fitness levels being back (the other is Lynch, with the expectation of trading him at or before his bye).

Good luck, I hope you jump the right way.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowan,

Hope you are well buddy. I am keen to start Barlow. He is getting on but a class player in a gazless midfield has me interested. I would envision he may play many roles, mid, run with, tagger, forward but should be where the action is. A bit of a general as the season wears on perhaps. A proven track record, new challenge. I like the way he plays. A risk, all players are. Apparently very fit in the preseason. He should have much to offer Gold Coast. I reckon he is worth a punt. What do you think Rowan?

Slainte,

Keith

Hi Keith,
he's never been out of my team, since news of his good results in the time trials, which was 2nd I believe. New Coach, no Gaz, if he stays fit, I don't see much downside to him. That's a big IF with Barlow, but I'm keen to start him. If the wheels fall off, and his wonky legs give way, well, we just have to swallow it and trade him. If they don't, and he gets through most of the season, I can't imagine he'd be a regrettable pick.

Skål

Rowan

 

[Courtesans]

Hi Keith,
he's never been out of my team, since news of his good results in the time trials, which was 2nd I believe. New Coach, no Gaz, if he stays fit, I don't see much downside to him. That's a big IF with Barlow, but I'm keen to start him. If the wheels fall off, and his wonky legs give way, well, we just have to swallow it and trade him. If they don't, and he gets through most of the season, I can't imagine he'd be a regrettable pick.

Skål

Rowan

Thanks Rowan.

Slainte, red by 3.

Keith

 

[BigRuss]

Hi BigRuss (and chels),
believe it or not, this is one of the tougher questions I have ever been asked here!
Without a full list of stats and heat maps, it's really hard to determine what happened with McLean, but here are things we do know:
You are spot on about the timing coinciding with the Lin Jong injury.
The Bulldogs play a Hawthorn type model Midfield, where so many players rotate through, it's going to be hard to pick any of them as good SC Mids (I'm looking at you, Bont!). Hawthorn at it's peak rarely produced good SC Mids. Fortunately, you are not stuck with McLean as Mid only, but it should give an indication, that any permanent type improvement he shows might be capped by this factor.
Normally we can try and find something in the stats we do have access to, to show a player has shifted from a Def or Fwd role, to more Mid time. McLean has nearly all of those indicators. Probably enough to say it happened, without having access to his heat maps. In the case of a small Forward going to the Midfield, you are looking for:
An increase in Inside 50's, as he spending more time outside the arc. Rnds 1-13 3.1/game. Rnds 14-23 4.1/game (check)
An increase in Rebound 50's, as he's pushing deeper now. Rnds 1-13 0.6/game. Rnds 14-23 1.0/game (check)
An increase in Clearances, as he attends more stoppages. Rnds 1-13 1.8/game. Rnds 14-23 4.1/game (CHECK)
An increase in Contested Possession rate. Rnds 1-13 33.7%. Rnds 14-23 43.7% (check)
There are a few other smaller ones, but they are the main ones, so it looks like there was no doubt he played significantly more Mid time after Round 13, when Jong got injured. Even with that, I wouldn't be confidently predicting he can reach Forward Keeper status. From what I understand, Jong will be back very early in the season, maybe even round 1. If that even takes away half of McLean's Mid time, he might be mired in that awkward low 90's area. It's a very grey area. None of the Bulldogs retirement/delistings open the door for Midtime, with Boyd, Murphy and Stringer all playing some Mid Time, but not enough to open a door for McLean to get significantly more.
You probably won't lose too much value on him, if it goes wrong, and there is potential for upside, I just think I'd want a more positive lead to be taking a player at his price, and his history, especially in a team with the Midfield model the Bulldogs (and now many other teams) use. His fall back role is that poisonous small Forward role!

As to which Forwards I like in that $400-$480k area, I only have 2 right now, and only one I'm looking at as a long term pick. It might be silly using the words "long term" with Barlow, but he has never been out of my team since news of his fitness levels being back (the other is Lynch, with the expectation of trading him at or before his bye).

Good luck, I hope you jump the right way.

Thanks for the detailed response mate. Would i be right in assuming that you believe if he retains the midfield minutes he is a chance to retain and possibly increase in scores? His last couple of months of footy are remarkably similar to Zeretts last 2 months in 2014.

Mcleans disposals increased from 19 to 25 over that period, While Zerett went from 20 to 25. The same mirror increase in tackles, R & I 50s & Clearances is displayed too over the corresponding periods. While i dont think Mclean has the 23 point jump in him that Zerett did i cant help but draw some similarities between the two. Having 15 best 22 players out evidently helped Zerett also.

Good luck with Barlow mate youre a braver man than I, interestingly the reason Im avoiding him is the reasoning you've given against Mclean, the poisonous small forward role. Dew comes from a program with big bodied mids whos running is potentially not their best weapon so the chance is there he tries to use him to emulate that role with the added benefit of him being an excellent runner. I just cant help but feel like its no coincidence that his second worst year of scoring came in his first year at the suns. Looking into their Mid group i wonder where he fits alongside Swallow, Weller, Miller, Lyons and the plethora of kids they'll be aiming to fast track. What do you think his role will be?

Cheers again.

 

[Santoz]

Good luck with Barlow mate youre a braver man than I, interestingly the reason Im avoiding him is the reasoning you've given against Mclean, the poisonous small forward role. Dew comes from a program with big bodied mids whos running is potentially not their best weapon so the chance is there he tries to use him to emulate that role with the added benefit of him being an excellent runner. I just cant help but feel like its no coincidence that his second worst year of scoring came in his first year at the suns. Looking into their Mid group i wonder where he fits alongside Swallow, Weller, Miller, Lyons and the plethora of kids they'll be aiming to fast track. What do you think his role will be?

Cheers again.

If Dew is picking him in the team, surely it's to be an elder statesman/leader around the footy & not out of position up forward or the like.

 

[Herbie66]

Hi Rowsus

Hope all is well for you.

Was very interested to read your reply to BigRuss in regards to Toby McLean, Beveridge certainly does seem to want to rotate the 10 - 12 mids through the forwards.

I digress , I was wondering what your analysis/thoughts were on 2 similar priced players in Lambert (Richmond) and Papley (Sydney) and if you consider they could increase their output enough to be Top 10 forwards.

Cheers in advance.

 

[Lgndhen23]

Hey rowsus,

Just another question for you

What do you think of lachie Weller?
Have him as my M7 alongside dusty, titch, Zerret, treloar, hangers and coniglio
Thoughts on what his average will be in a new GC midfield
Hoping 90

Cheers in advance Lgndhen23

 

[Zoku Pops]

Hi BigRuss (and chels),
believe it or not, this is one of the tougher questions I have ever been asked here!
Without a full list of stats and heat maps, it's really hard to determine what happened with McLean, but here are things we do know:
You are spot on about the timing coinciding with the Lin Jong injury.
The Bulldogs play a Hawthorn type model Midfield, where so many players rotate through, it's going to be hard to pick any of them as good SC Mids (I'm looking at you, Bont!). Hawthorn at it's peak rarely produced good SC Mids. Fortunately, you are not stuck with McLean as Mid only, but it should give an indication, that any permanent type improvement he shows might be capped by this factor.
Normally we can try and find something in the stats we do have access to, to show a player has shifted from a Def or Fwd role, to more Mid time. McLean has nearly all of those indicators. Probably enough to say it happened, without having access to his heat maps. In the case of a small Forward going to the Midfield, you are looking for:
An increase in Inside 50's, as he spending more time outside the arc. Rnds 1-13 3.1/game. Rnds 14-23 4.1/game (check)
An increase in Rebound 50's, as he's pushing deeper now. Rnds 1-13 0.6/game. Rnds 14-23 1.0/game (check)
An increase in Clearances, as he attends more stoppages. Rnds 1-13 1.8/game. Rnds 14-23 4.1/game (CHECK)
An increase in Contested Possession rate. Rnds 1-13 33.7%. Rnds 14-23 43.7% (check)
There are a few other smaller ones, but they are the main ones, so it looks like there was no doubt he played significantly more Mid time after Round 13, when Jong got injured. Even with that, I wouldn't be confidently predicting he can reach Forward Keeper status. From what I understand, Jong will be back very early in the season, maybe even round 1. If that even takes away half of McLean's Mid time, he might be mired in that awkward low 90's area. It's a very grey area. None of the Bulldogs retirement/delistings open the door for Midtime, with Boyd, Murphy and Stringer all playing some Mid Time, but not enough to open a door for McLean to get significantly more.
You probably won't lose too much value on him, if it goes wrong, and there is potential for upside, I just think I'd want a more positive lead to be taking a player at his price, and his history, especially in a team with the Midfield model the Bulldogs (and now many other teams) use. His fall back role is that poisonous small Forward role!

As to which Forwards I like in that $400-$480k area, I only have 2 right now, and only one I'm looking at as a long term pick. It might be silly using the words "long term" with Barlow, but he has never been out of my team since news of his fitness levels being back (the other is Lynch, with the expectation of trading him at or before his bye).

Good luck, I hope you jump the right way.

Great write up mate, you've hit the nail on the head when it comes to the Bulldogs midfielders.

You mentioned Bont in this who is one I have been taking in and out of my team. I can't help but feel Bont would easily be a guaranteed 115 averaging player if he played for most other teams in the competition but the Bulldogs seem to love their midfield rotations which puts a limit to his scoring potential. He obviously started the season unbelievably last year, thanks to a few close games, but then tapered off, seemingly playing more forward in the back half of the season (although I don't have the stats to prove this).

Personally not a massive fan of their midfield rotation policy and it must frustrate fans at times but, as Beveridge is a Clarkson disciple, it appears as if the strategy is hear to stay.

For this reason alone, is it worth waiting to see what the Dogs do with Bont or do you pick him because of that massive scoring potential?