Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Status
Not open for further replies.

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,137
Likes
64,907
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hi Rowsus.

Sick and tired of my underperforming team over the last 3 weeks ever since bringing Rocky in and considering using my last 2 trades this week. Which would be the better option in your opinion?

With $193k in the bank.

OPTION A
Pendles to Sloane & Newman to Dusty (via Withers to D6).
Ryan becomes D7.

OPTION B
Pendles to Sloane & Ryan to Beams (via Withers to D6).
Newman becomes D7.

OPTION C
Pendles to Dusty & Newman to Hibberd. Keeps DPP link with Hibberd/Withers. Downside is contnue to play Rocky at M8.

OPTION D
Just Pendles to Dusty, keep Rocky M8 & Loop Withers/Newman/Ryan at D6. 1 trade left in hand.
Hi Tam,
I think it's too early to be going all-in, go option D, and keep that trade up your sleeve until at least Round 21, unless an LTI or suspension dictate you use it earlier.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,137
Likes
64,907
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hi Rowsus,

Congrats on your season so far, hope it continues into league finals (just not in the Mod league :p)

A general question re replacements for Pendlebury. I only have 50k so I need to find a replacement mid (or other player) under 547k.

The guys that are must haves that I don't have are Titch and Dusty but they are well out of my range. Neale seems to be the obvious choice at 530k. I am also considering Gawn at 455k through DPP (but concerned about his injury scare). Sloane an option too but he was never in my consideration before his big 170 and I'm wary of chasing "last weeks points".

Do you have any other smokies worth considering in that price bracket? Or am I better off grabbing Neale, seemingly a KISS pick?

Thanks!
B18
Hi B18,
I think Gawn is too risky, even though he has been named this week.
I'd be going Neale, or if you are worried about Lyon doing strange things, like last week, where Neale's TOG% in first half was about 50% :)mad:), then go Luke Parker.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,137
Likes
64,907
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hi Rowsus - hopefully an easy one for you. I know you've done research previously on players' scores by age. Could you point me in the direction of that please?

Thanks,

Darkie
I was searching for another one of Rowsus threads which I didn't find - however this may be what you want

http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/3288-100-Season-Players-Sorted-By-Age

Rowsus - On my fruitless search - can you provide the link to the analysis/thread on which players maintained or increased the next seasons average after an increase in a seasons average by x points. Think Ablett and Swan met the criteria and Libba may have looked like doing it or achieved it
Thanks mate, I think that's the one! :)
Could the thread below be what you were looking for...?

2014 Chasing Last Year's Points...
Thanks for helping me, and each other. :D
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,137
Likes
64,907
AFL Club
Melbourne
Parson became Deluca - now that he has lost his place he can help looping Greenwood/Nanks @ F6/7 (only R22 - bit of a stuff up).

Question for this week. Was planning on bringing Sloane in however after reading Geelong didnt heavily tag him, nervous whether he will still get those big scores.

Considering Dusty and Tom Mitchell instead for Pendles/Lloyd. This will push Fyfe/Treloar to M9 to be looped for now.

The catch - if I want Kreuzer next week, I will need to go Witherden to Glass next week. This means Mitchell comes in Fri night and subject to Glass ok, then Dusty comes in. If I push through with Dusty/Mitchell and choose to keep Witherden, then Darcy will need to be Stef Martin or Gawn.

With all these changes, will still have a handful of trade and $100k. Dont think I will get to bringing in a solid D7 but will be able to trade sideways if someone out in defence.

Going for league. Any thoughts once again appreciated Rowsus - thanks for taking the time last week.

Last 4 games of SC finals
Tom Mitchell - Richmond (prestia tag) then North, Carlton (Ed Curnow maybe still out) and Bulldogs who he should go well on.
Sloane - Port (Ebert?), Essendon (can restrict), Swans (maybe ok/restrictive), West Coast (Hutchings).
Dusty - Hawks (Howe?), Geelong (Selwood?), Fremantle and Saints (Seb). Dusty seems to handle tag the best.
I agree, I'd be nervous bringing in Sloane. Of the 3, I like Mitchell the best. Dusty can certainly be taken out of games, as witnessed by last weeks 1st and last quarters (he was something like 20 points total in the 1st and last quarters last week, and 130 points total in the 2nd and 3rd). It would be nice to get Kreuzer infor the Ess game (Rnd 20), and it might be ok to "eat" some of your cover to do that by then.
 
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
43
Likes
70
AFL Club
Carlton
Hi Rowsus, love your work and I'm always reading the advice you give to others on here, I don't know how you do it!! Often I have a fairly good idea as to what I should do week to week but this week i'm stuck. I am in a very unique situation to be sitting 176th overall and ****ting myself with the extreme luck I have had. I have 5 trades left and $240k in the bank. My goal is to try finish inside the top 100 and also win league outright. See my team below...

Mafia FC - round 19.JPG

Newman and Nank are the obvious concerns and ideally I would love to have an uber premo in say a Dusty/Zerret in place of Murphy or Treloar...
The Newman and Nank issue is my focus, and I'm contemplating the following options:

A) Do nothing - I have ample bench cover, in fact too much cover that I can't successfully use E loophole. Would then use the trades for SC league finals and cover injuries/make upgrades as necessary.

B) Trade Nank (to either Gawn or De Goey) - I'm concerned that Nank will not score over 80 again for rest of the season with Soldo sharing the ruck load... DeGoey looks attractive as Pendles probably out for rest of year and has been playing solidly in the middle over the last month. Gawn is soo damn cheap and we know he has a high ceiling, I'm almost convinced he is over the injury woes and now is the best time to get him...

C) Trade Newman (to one of Hurley, Roberton, Hurn, Z.Williams, Savage or Houli) - Newman I initially thought might have been a keeper if he was able to sustain a 90+ average, his last month though has proved that the Sydney points distribution is not enough let alone the uncertain role he plays in the team. With Lloyd, Rampe, Melican, McVeigh, Mills, etc he is not getting the minutes on the field and consequently suffering with his scores. the question is who to get in for him? no obvious standout of the names I have mentioned, riskiest option is Hurn and not exaclty sure what triggered the monster scores from him in the last 2 weeks?? Houli is back from suspension, will he get booed? will that affect his output (Adam Goodes style)? and he is expensive at 570k (but I can afford him). With Montagna out how does this help Roberton? does it help at all? and Savage has been good lately but has it affected Roberton's output? I can't trust Savage to keep this up I don't think... Z.Williams will probably get me a 80+ and the occasional monster score but with Wilson, Shaw, Haynes down back in the giants team I'm just not too sure they wont just steal significant points off each other. With Hurley I simply just don't know, and at the start of the season I told myself "no drug saga players" but Hurley has been pretty good and bombers have a nice draw to the end, but does he thrive against easy opponents or the tough ones?

D) both B) & C) - I'm leaning towards this option simply because both Newman and the Nank give me the ****s, would leave me with 3 injury trades for finals...

E) Strategically trade in a DPP doughnut for E loophole-ing - I feel like this would be a waste of a trade to perhaps ditch parsons for a Fwd/Mid doughnut, but what if Shai Bolton gets dropped next week, then I get my E loophole back... Not too keen on this option and its not like I'm desperate for $, but hey I gotta explore all options..


I would love to get your thoughts Rowsus for what you would do in my situation. are there any other options I should consider? eg. Should I be thinking about a JJK in for Nank perhaps? (prefer Gawn or De Goey though)

Crikey I have written a lot there, apologies for the long post.

Thanks in advance! Cheers
 
Last edited:

Bomber18

Leadership Group
Joined
11 Nov 2012
Messages
27,409
Likes
65,138
AFL Club
Essendon
Hi B18,
I think Gawn is too risky, even though he has been named this week.
I'd be going Neale, or if you are worried about Lyon doing strange things, like last week, where Neale's TOG% in first half was about 50% :)mad:), then go Luke Parker.
Thanks Rowsus.
Gee that Ross factor is definitely a slight concern but beggars can't be choosers in my position. Parker doesn't seem to have the upside of Neale so I'll just hope Neale can get a better chunk of game time.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,137
Likes
64,907
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hi Rowsus, love your work and I'm always reading the advice you give to others on here, I don't know how you do it!! Often I have a fairly good idea as to what I should do week to week but this week i'm stuck. I am in a very unique situation to be sitting 176th overall and ****ting myself with the extreme luck I have had. I have 5 trades left and $240k in the bank. My goal is to try finish inside the top 100 and also win league outright. See my team below...

View attachment 3127

Newman and Nank are the obvious concerns and ideally I would love to have an uber premo in say a Dusty/Zerret in place of Murphy or Treloar...
The Newman and Nank issue is my focus, and I'm contemplating the following options:

A) Do nothing - I have ample bench cover, in fact too much cover that I can't successfully use E loophole. Would then use the trades for SC league finals and cover injuries/make upgrades as necessary.

B) Trade Nank (to either Gawn or De Goey) - I'm concerned that Nank will not score over 80 again for rest of the season with Soldo sharing the ruck load... DeGoey looks attractive as Pendles probably out for rest of year and has been playing solidly in the middle over the last month. Gawn is soo damn cheap and we know he has a high ceiling, I'm almost convinced he is over the injury woes and now is the best time to get him...

C) Trade Newman (to one of Hurley, Roberton, Hurn, Z.Williams, Savage or Houli) - Newman I initially thought might have been a keeper if he was able to sustain a 90+ average, his last month though has proved that the Sydney points distribution is not enough let alone the uncertain role he plays in the team. With Lloyd, Rampe, Melican, McVeigh, Mills, etc he is not getting the minutes on the field and consequently suffering with his scores. the question is who to get in for him? no obvious standout of the names I have mentioned, riskiest option is Hurn and not exaclty sure what triggered the monster scores from him in the last 2 weeks?? Houli is back from suspension, will he get booed? will that affect his output (Adam Goodes style)? and he is expensive at 570k (but I can afford him). With Montagna out how does this help Roberton? does it help at all? and Savage has been good lately but has it affected Roberton's output? I can't trust Savage to keep this up I don't think... Z.Williams will probably get me a 80+ and the occasional monster score but with Wilson, Shaw, Haynes down back in the giants team I'm just not too sure they wont just steal significant points off each other. With Hurley I simply just don't know, and at the start of the season I told myself "no drug saga players" but Hurley has been pretty good and bombers have a nice draw to the end, but does he thrive against easy opponents or the tough ones?

D) both B) & C) - I'm leaning towards this option simply because both Newman and the Nank give me the ****s, would leave me with 3 injury trades for finals...

E) Strategically trade in a DPP doughnut for E loophole-ing - I feel like this would be a waste of a trade to perhaps ditch parsons for a Fwd/Mid doughnut, but what if Shai Bolton gets dropped next week, then I get my E loophole back... Not too keen on this option and its not like I'm desperate for $, but hey I gotta explore all options..


I would love to get your thoughts Rowsus for what you would do in my situation. are there any other options I should consider? eg. Should I be thinking about a JJK in for Nank perhaps? (prefer Gawn or De Goey though)

Crikey I have written a lot there, apologies for the long post.

Thanks in advance! Cheers
Hi Mafia,
thanks for the kind words, and well done on having a cracking season so far! :)
With Cameron coming back in, giving you the ability to move Nank to F7, I think I'd hold onto him for now.
I'm liking Option C - Newman to Hurley. Hurn's history says he will come back to Earth, I don't trust Roberton to not revert to being the 90 type player we all thought he was in the pre-season, similarly with Houli. Savage has scored like this in spurts before, but never for a decent period. Montagna being out might help Savage, but I don't think it affects Roberton at all. I like Hurley's consistency over Z Williams.
It can be a tough balancing act, trying to hold onto/get into the top 100, and win a tough League. As you are trying to do both, I think you need to try and use only one trade this week.
Good luck! :)
 
Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
4,890
Likes
11,150
AFL Club
West Coast
I agree, I'd be nervous bringing in Sloane. Of the 3, I like Mitchell the best. Dusty can certainly be taken out of games, as witnessed by last weeks 1st and last quarters (he was something like 20 points total in the 1st and last quarters last week, and 130 points total in the 2nd and 3rd). It would be nice to get Kreuzer infor the Ess game (Rnd 20), and it might be ok to "eat" some of your cover to do that by then.
Thanks Rowsus. As a back up plan next week, could always get kreuzer from Nank (have ryder in fwd line too) and put greenwood on field (which may happen regardless) who may benefit from brad crouch out. Gives more time to darcy and witherden to go up in value and can trade cover back in over week 2-3 of finals.

Must say there is no must fwds jumping out at me beyond the obvious ones most have. Would pick up a JJK to loophole if he had an easier run.
 
Joined
17 Mar 2017
Messages
17
Likes
0
Hi Rowsus,

To sum up the questions for the week...

Are Sloane and Beams the real deal?

Thinking of going:
SPendles > Sloan (pod)
Parsons (via greenweed) > Beams (pod)

Leaving me with $50k and 2 trades.

Team would look like:
Adams, Laird, Roberton, Lloyd, Shaw, Hibberd (Witherden, Mcniece)
Danger, T Mitchell, Sloane, Jelwood, Hanneberry, Treloar, Shuey, Beams (SSelwood, Perryman, Cousins)
Martin, Ryder (Stnd)
Macrae, Dahl, Yeo, Buddy, Higgins, Heeney (Greenwood, bolton)

Other options are:
Pendles > Sloan (POD)
S Selwood > L Neale (POD)
(no money remaining)

Pendles > Sloan (POD)
Greenwood > Martin / Merrett / Kelly (POD)
with no money remaining.

I am sitting around 15,000 overall but am only concerned with league win.. the PODs are against my top 4 competitors.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,137
Likes
64,907
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hi Rowsus,

To sum up the questions for the week...

Are Sloane and Beams the real deal?

Thinking of going:
SPendles > Sloan (pod)
Parsons (via greenweed) > Beams (pod)

Leaving me with $50k and 2 trades.

Team would look like:
Adams, Laird, Roberton, Lloyd, Shaw, Hibberd (Witherden, Mcniece)
Danger, T Mitchell, Sloane, Jelwood, Hanneberry, Treloar, Shuey, Beams (SSelwood, Perryman, Cousins)
Martin, Ryder (Stnd)
Macrae, Dahl, Yeo, Buddy, Higgins, Heeney (Greenwood, bolton)

Other options are:
Pendles > Sloan (POD)
S Selwood > L Neale (POD)
(no money remaining)

Pendles > Sloan (POD)
Greenwood > Martin / Merrett / Kelly (POD)
with no money remaining.

I am sitting around 15,000 overall but am only concerned with league win.. the PODs are against my top 4 competitors.
Hi fh11,
both are extremely well priced, for what they are capable of producing, but they are also both capable of producing poison.
I'm, not sure how many trades you have left, but maybe just grab one of them for now, and save a trade until you know more about your match up situations in the finals.
I think if I was grabbing one, it would be Sloane.
Good luck :)
 
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
43
Likes
70
AFL Club
Carlton
Hi Mafia,
thanks for the kind words, and well done on having a cracking season so far! :)
With Cameron coming back in, giving you the ability to move Nank to F7, I think I'd hold onto him for now.
I'm liking Option C - Newman to Hurley. Hurn's history says he will come back to Earth, I don't trust Roberton to not revert to being the 90 type player we all thought he was in the pre-season, similarly with Houli. Savage has scored like this in spurts before, but never for a decent period. Montagna being out might help Savage, but I don't think it affects Roberton at all. I like Hurley's consistency over Z Williams.
It can be a tough balancing act, trying to hold onto/get into the top 100, and win a tough League. As you are trying to do both, I think you need to try and use only one trade this week.
Good luck! :)
Wow at how quickly things change! Jake Lloyd is out and I'm thinking I might hold my trades, Newman should benefit from the Lloyd (ball-hog) not playing. If there was no injury cloud over Hurley I would not hesitate to bring him in... and since no other options look enticing I will stay with the status quo.

Thanks for your thoughts, agree with mostly everything you mentioned however Nank's currency has me questioning if to ditch him now as his value will likely just go down... without J.Riewoldt I'm wondering if Nank plays up front as a tall and maybe gets a few more goals/marks? its not the same as him playing in ruck though...

Decision for now is that I'll hold Newman for this week and re-evaluate again... possibly get Hurley next round after this injury cloud? Not sure on Nank, don't need to decide on anything tonight... we'll see. Good thing is that most of the other leaders in my league have Newman plus other concerns (Pendles, Greene, Roo,

Cheers
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,137
Likes
64,907
AFL Club
Melbourne
Wow at how quickly things change! Jake Lloyd is out and I'm thinking I might hold my trades, Newman should benefit from the Lloyd (ball-hog) not playing. If there was no injury cloud over Hurley I would not hesitate to bring him in... and since no other options look enticing I will stay with the status quo.

Thanks for your thoughts, agree with mostly everything you mentioned however Nank's currency has me questioning if to ditch him now as his value will likely just go down... without J.Riewoldt I'm wondering if Nank plays up front as a tall and maybe gets a few more goals/marks? its not the same as him playing in ruck though...

Decision for now is that I'll hold Newman for this week and re-evaluate again... possibly get Hurley next round after this injury cloud? Not sure on Nank, don't need to decide on anything tonight... we'll see. Good thing is that most of the other leaders in my league have Newman plus other concerns (Pendles, Greene, Roo,

Cheers
Aaaahhhh SuperCoach! The ever changing landscape!
I agree with your choices, given the changes of circumstance!
 
Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
4,890
Likes
11,150
AFL Club
West Coast
Wow at how quickly things change! Jake Lloyd is out and I'm thinking I might hold my trades, Newman should benefit from the Lloyd (ball-hog) not playing. If there was no injury cloud over Hurley I would not hesitate to bring him in... and since no other options look enticing I will stay with the status quo.

Thanks for your thoughts, agree with mostly everything you mentioned however Nank's currency has me questioning if to ditch him now as his value will likely just go down... without J.Riewoldt I'm wondering if Nank plays up front as a tall and maybe gets a few more goals/marks? its not the same as him playing in ruck though...

Decision for now is that I'll hold Newman for this week and re-evaluate again... possibly get Hurley next round after this injury cloud? Not sure on Nank, don't need to decide on anything tonight... we'll see. Good thing is that most of the other leaders in my league have Newman plus other concerns (Pendles, Greene, Roo,

Cheers
Nank will play forward this week Mafia, he will be only tall target with Jack out.

What is the injury conern for Hurley? Think Hurley scoring may suffer against weak teams.

Aaaahhhh SuperCoach! The ever changing landscape!
I agree with your choices, given the changes of circumstance!
Did some work on Nank, moved forward once Sam Lloyd was dropped. Sam hasnt played VFL yet.

Nank scored 94 vs Brisbane playing forward in R17. Should go ok vs Gold Coast this week and with May also out of the side. Will be main target with Jack R not playing.

Will reassess Nanks next week. If playing ruck, think he could do well vs Hawks. Nanks has a good run home if playing ruck, less so if a fwd as Hawks/Geelong in my view give up points in the ruck, not as much to fwds.
 
Joined
27 Jan 2014
Messages
6,769
Likes
14,766
AFL Club
Fremantle
Nank will play forward this week Mafia, he will be only tall target with Jack out.

What is the injury conern for Hurley? Think Hurley scoring may suffer against weak teams.



Did some work on Nank, moved forward once Sam Lloyd was dropped. Sam hasnt played VFL yet.

Nank scored 94 vs Brisbane playing forward in R17. Should go ok vs Gold Coast this week and with May also out of the side. Will be main target with Jack R not playing.

Will reassess Nanks next week. If playing ruck, think he could do well vs Hawks. Nanks has a good run home if playing ruck, less so if a fwd as Hawks/Geelong in my view give up points in the ruck, not as much to fwds.
Good post GFB. You've convinced me to hold Nank and break Kreuzer next week.
 
Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
4,890
Likes
11,150
AFL Club
West Coast
Good post GFB. You've convinced me to hold Nank and break Kreuzer next week.
Just not sure Nank will survive in our teams next week. Ben Griffiths is unlikely to be back soon given injured shoulder last week.

Would need Dimma to realise Soldo not doing much, better to have Nank rucking and go back to more crumbing forwards (Sam Lloyd or someone else).

For all we know, if Jack had played maybe they would have done that. Agree, sit on Nank for one week, be circa 100 is not too bad.

If no change to Richmond side and no other players out next week, then trade him then.

trades needing to be done are building with Pendles to go, JPK needing quality cover or to go and Darcy upgrade to come.
 

Bomber18

Leadership Group
Joined
11 Nov 2012
Messages
27,409
Likes
65,138
AFL Club
Essendon
Just not sure Nank will survive in our teams next week. Ben Griffiths is unlikely to be back soon given injured shoulder last week.

Would need Dimma to realise Soldo not doing much, better to have Nank rucking and go back to more crumbing forwards (Sam Lloyd or someone else).

For all we know, if Jack had played maybe they would have done that. Agree, sit on Nank for one week, be circa 100 is not too bad.

If no change to Richmond side and no other players out next week, then trade him then.

trades needing to be done are building with Pendles to go, JPK needing quality cover or to go and Darcy upgrade to come.
Jack's in some doubt for next week too fwiw. He had quite a serious poke to the eye and had some sort of surgery.
 

Bomber18

Leadership Group
Joined
11 Nov 2012
Messages
27,409
Likes
65,138
AFL Club
Essendon
Hi B18,
I think Gawn is too risky, even though he has been named this week.
I'd be going Neale, or if you are worried about Lyon doing strange things, like last week, where Neale's TOG% in first half was about 50% :)mad:), then go Luke Parker.
Thanks Rowsus.
Gee that Ross factor is definitely a slight concern but beggars can't be choosers in my position. Parker doesn't seem to have the upside of Neale so I'll just hope Neale can get a better chunk of game time.
Also fwiw I've decided to just sit on the Pendles out decision this week. I've accepted I can't save my ranking after JPK/Buddy's poor efforts. I'll just play both Greenwood and Lynch and hopefully the extra week in assessing Neale/Gawn will help me make the right decision next week for the finals period.
 
Joined
25 Jul 2012
Messages
47,728
Likes
107,810
AFL Club
Collingwood
Hi Rowsus

Bad luck about the Dees today , I think they said that was their 18th loss in a row to the Kangaroos.

But anyway I was just updating my spreadsheet and was curios about Oliver.

Who has the highest average in their second season , I know Barlow went well and possibly Broughton.

Also Oliver averaged 70.31 in his first year and is now sitting at 112.22 , would that be the biggest increase in average again for a second year player , I guess someone may have gone 30/40 to 90 odd.

Thanks for your time
 
Joined
17 Mar 2017
Messages
17
Likes
0
I ended up doing the trades.. Went Pendles > Sloan and Parsons > Beams

Sloane dished up a putrid 36 and was crushed by Greenwood, which was always possible :rolleyes: but Beams looks to be one of the form mids of the comp right now so mayble all is not lost..
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top