Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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Philzsay

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Tradition without solid reason is just ridiculous. Tradition for traditions sake.
I cite my Danish families Xmas dinner as an example. As in most places around the Christian world, we eat too much, to the stage of discomfort. What I fail to wrap my head around is, within this meal, we each have to eat a bowl of risengrød, which is basically rice porridge. Each year I point out to my wife, that people did this in the olden days, because they didn't have the financial means to fill the table with hams and turkeys and all the trimmings we have today. She says "I know, but it's tradition". No one particularly enjoys it. No one says "Ooooh, I can't wait for my big bowl of risengrød!". People silently suffer through it, all thinking the same thing, I wish we didn't have to do this........ but it's tradition.
Tradition without reason and understanding is just nonsense.
Apologies for laughing out loud, but that was pretty funny to read! I can't help but let my imagination run wild, with video in my mind of you at the table trying to not eat the risengrød ala Mr Bean steak tartare style, quickly disposing some of it when your wife is not looking....

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Rowsus

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Apologies for laughing out loud, but that was pretty funny to read! I can't help but let my imagination run wild, with video in my mind of you at the table trying to not eat the risengrød ala Mr Bean steak tartare style, quickly disposing some of it when your wife is not looking....

View attachment 3646
That has always been my favourite Mr Bean clip. Briliant!
I've actually learnt I can counter any Danish tradition with my own traditions.
They all join hands, and dance around the Xmas tree, singing Danish Xmas songs.
When they say to me, "come on, join in, it's a tradition"
I reply with "Yes, but in Australia we have a tradition, where we don't dance around the Xmas tree singing songs. You keep to your traditions ...... and I'll keep to mine". :)
 
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Hey Eagling,
I know people will howl me down, particularly the "traditionalists", but I actually think the idea has potential merit.
The "traditionalists" will tell you, you can't have $277k sitting on the bench. I say, given we are looking at potentially driest season ever for Ruck coverage, that the "traditionalists" are thinking of the good old days when we nearly always had a sub $150k Ruck we could quite confidently sit at R3.

Having said the idea has merit, I need to point out, on your proposed scenario, the idea is not worth pursuing.
You have actually said, in different words:
"If I was offered an extra trade, and all I had to do was sacrifice $150k of my salary cap in Round 1, I'd do it".
Let's do the maths a slightly different way than normal:
$150k is 1.5% of your starting salary cap. You are hoping to start with something like 2,200 points/round
2,200 x 1.5% x 22 Rounds = 726 points.
You are giving up a theoretical 726 points, to save a trade. It would want to have been one REALLY good trade to warrant that!

So why do I say the idea has some merit?
It's because I don't see it as saving a trade.
I see it as potentially saving a chain of events, that leads to potentially 3 or 4 trades.
I see it producing points, and dollars.
The question then becomes, will those points and dollars (and potential saved trades) get in the neighbourhood of the 600-750 points required, to call it a worthwhile exercise?
I see it saving trading out a player that might be someone you actually want to keep. ie, let's say you start Gawn/Goldy, and it turns out they are the 2 Rucks you needed in 2018.
When one of them misses a game, are you going to trade them out to a sub-performing commodity?
Are you then stuck with the quandary of trading them back in, to rid yourself of this sub-performing commodity?

I think one of things last season shone a light on is, we need to start thinking outside the box a little, and we also need to question some of our traditional thinking.

Tradition without solid reason is just ridiculous. Tradition for traditions sake.
I cite my Danish families Xmas dinner as an example. As in most places around the Christian world, we eat too much, to the stage of discomfort. What I fail to wrap my head around is, within this meal, we each have to eat a bowl of risengrød, which is basically rice porridge. Each year I point out to my wife, that people did this in the olden days, because they didn't have the financial means to fill the table with hams and turkeys and all the trimmings we have today. She says "I know, but it's tradition". No one particularly enjoys it. No one says "Ooooh, I can't wait for my big bowl of risengrød!". People silently suffer through it, all thinking the same thing, I wish we didn't have to do this........ but it's tradition.
Tradition without reason and understanding is just nonsense.

That applies just as much to SuperCoach, as it does Danish Xmas dinners!
Thank you, once again, for your insight and wisdom, Rowsus. And I would be one of those traditionalists screaming at myself to forgo this folly most of the time.

One thing I don't quite get though - risengrød seems to have the potential to be delicious - where is it going wrong?
 
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Potential = Tampering with recipe.
Tampering with recipe = Untraditional.

I'm guessing.
 
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This is all quite funny.

Rowsus - you did a cracking article previously about 192cm or less players being the benchmark for high performance midfielders. Noticed Cripps is now listed at 195cm - is he the first exception to the rule?

Any thoughts on him? main concern I have is this talk of playing forward. Heard it many times with Gaz etc in the old days, although, he is so tall and Carlton only have Curnow delivering in the forward line. Not certain if the two may be the rotation.
 
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Hi Rowsus,

I'm wondering if you (or anyone else) have done an analysis of players returning from serious LTI injuries (broken leg, ACL, PCL etc) and how they performed during their first and second seasons back?
 
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Hi Rowsus,

I'm wondering if you (or anyone else) have done an analysis of players returning from serious LTI injuries (broken leg, ACL, PCL etc) and how they performed during their first and second seasons back?
Yes, Rowsus did!! think it was done when Libba came back in 2016. think the best (maybe average) performer was 10% worse than their previousl level. The big man (metaphorically) I am sure will have the link.
 
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G’day Rows,

Great to see your back up and running in 2018.
First post for me this year as I finally start putting a team together.
First couple of queries for me are :
1. Will you start with Danger?
2. What are your thoughts on Mitch Duncan? Will Ablett and Danger take the spotlight or the possessions from
him?

Look forward to great discussion once again on this thread. Keep up the amazing work!

Cheers
 

Rowsus

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This is all quite funny.

Rowsus - you did a cracking article previously about 192cm or less players being the benchmark for high performance midfielders. Noticed Cripps is now listed at 195cm - is he the first exception to the rule?

Any thoughts on him? main concern I have is this talk of playing forward. Heard it many times with Gaz etc in the old days, although, he is so tall and Carlton only have Curnow delivering in the forward line. Not certain if the two may be the rotation.
Hi GFB,
even though it has only been 4 short years, a lot has changed in the structure and size of AFL teams in that time.
While it was relevant at the time, I think there is now room for exceptions. When it comes to teams running their Midfields, the cream usually rises to the top, and is given a good run at it. This holds even more so teams middle or lower on the ladder. If Cripps stays fit, he'll get a really good run at it, and I wouldn't let any talk of more Forward time stop you from picking him.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

I'm wondering if you (or anyone else) have done an analysis of players returning from serious LTI injuries (broken leg, ACL, PCL etc) and how they performed during their first and second seasons back?
Yes, Rowsus did!! think it was done when Libba came back in 2016. think the best (maybe average) performer was 10% worse than their previousl level. The big man (metaphorically) I am sure will have the link.
Hi anfa,
it's not what I would call thorough, but here is what GFB was referring to:

Hey Rowsus! Good to see that you're open again after your great analysis of the players in 2015.

My question is related to concerns I have with Libba returning from ACL.

Are there any stats you could produce regarding players returning from ACLs or other leg injuries (ie: Barlow's broken leg) compared to their original years.
I'm not sure whether there is a list of players who had suffered ACL injuries but off the top of my head I know Suckling, Taylor Walker, Clay Beams, Malceski, Colyer, Dempsey, Winderlich are some who have had ACL injuries.

Thanks for your efforts
I'm not aware of a collective list anywhere with ACL or similar injuries. I don't think it is worthwhile seeing how non-SC relevant players performed after coming back, as it is much easier to return to a lower base, than a higher one.
Suckling went: 93, 81 - KNEE - 77, 73
Malceski went: 34, 67, 101 - KNEE Pre-season + 9/66, 52, 96 - KNEE Pre-season + 12/68, 76, 91, 105, 71
Walker T went: 49, 62, 63, 100 - 5/69 Knee - 80, 83
Gray R went: 90 - 2/71 KNEE - 82, 111, 110
Z Smith is an example of it being easier to return to a lower level
Smith Z went: 78, 70 - 8/77 KNEE - 76, 79

In general, I would err on the conservative side, and say they need at least one season back to get going again.
Thanks for your research! I had forgotten about Gray! How could I forgot how injury prone he once was!

I did find a list after some searching of players who had done ACLs (although it includes rugby players too).
http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/injury-knee-acl-injury.php

Another notable one is Ball, who went 89 - 97 - 3/63 KNEE - 90 - 73 and of course Rich last year who went 90 - 86 - 3/80 KNEE - 80

I don't think any established 105+ scorer has even done an ACL (I suppose Malceski is the closest). It does increase my doubts whether Libba can average 100+ when no one has ever done it before after an ACL. It's also food for thought re: Rich as historically it seems players second season after an ACL is generally a lot better.

Although not an ACL Barlow went 116/13 LEG - 83/9 - 95 - 110 - 112 - 93, so it took him 1.5 seasons to get back to a reasonable average and 2 to hit a premium average again.
It's from page 260 of this thread, dated 2/2/2016.
 

Rowsus

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G’day Rows,

Great to see your back up and running in 2018.
First post for me this year as I finally start putting a team together.
First couple of queries for me are :
1. Will you start with Danger?
No.
At his price, I believe the risk is too great. SC is a game of finite and restricted scoring. If you put 2 of the greatest points pigs of all time in the one team, something has to give. Add in Selwood and Duncan, and the pie gets sliced even smaller.
People keep referring to the 2012 Collingwood Midfield (Swan 18/126, Pendlebury 18/125, Beams 21/123), but I'm not sure that is a fair comparison. The game is different now, and the Collingwood structure and game plan bares no resemblance to Geelongs current structure and game plan. The other thing about Collingwood 2012 was that there was only one period in the season where all 3 scored well:

Rnds 1 - 8: Swan 8/119, Pendlebury 8/129, Beams 7/95
Rnds 9 - 15: Swan 4/134, Pendlebury 2/107, Beams 6/126 - no more than 2 of them played in these games
Rnds 16 - 22: Swan 6/131, Pendlebury 8/125, Beams 8/145

If we are to give this Collingwood season any relevance to Geelong in 2018, we would also need to concede it is unlikely that both Dangerfield and Ablett are capable of scoring at Super Elite levels, at the same time, for long periods of the season, especially throwing in Selwood/Duncan as spoiling the party. If there is only say and 8 or 10 week period where they both score at mind boggling levels, it then holds, that there is a 12 or 14 week period where one or the other (or possibly both) aren't. When you are dealing with a system that basically penalises players, price-wise, for performing at last seasons level, it would seem crazy to back that 8 or 10 week hot period to occur from Round 1. It would seem much more prudent to back it in that one, or other, or both, start in that 12 to 14 week down period, which compounds those potential initial price falls. Yes, it could be Ablett down, and Danger up early on, but when you are looking at a player whose price is nearly equivalent to a 145 average in Round 5 or 6, it's probably better to err on the side of caution, as he will need to score at career best levels, just to maintain his price, and he now has Ablett eating his pie to deal with as well.

2. What are your thoughts on Mitch Duncan? Will Ablett and Danger take the spotlight or the possessions from
him?

Look forward to great discussion once again on this thread. Keep up the amazing work!

Cheers
Coming off a major career high, so priced accordingly. Everything points to last year being more a spike, than his new norm. I wouldn't be going anywhere near him. Especially given the above.
 
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KLo30

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Hi anfa,
it's not what I would call thorough, but here is what GFB was referring to:







It's from page 260 of this thread, dated 2/2/2016.
Page number refers to standard/default setting of 20 posts per page.

I've set mine to the maximum of 40 posts per page in general settings. For me this post is on page 208, and the referred post would be on page 130.

Congratulations Rowsus on 1663 pages of Questions For Rowsus (5 Posts per page) ;) :p :)
 
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Hi Rowsus,

Wondering your thoughts on Pendlebury and Selwood. Risengrød or Turkey that was off last year but is now delicious again?
 

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Hi Rowsus,

An odd one but thoughts on Luke Ryan from Fremantle? Saw him last year and liked what I saw. Looks a good player, intercepts well and has a prolific shoe. Will obviously have a massive POD status and showed last year he can score very well, so I am seriously considering the gamble. Am I completely wrong to think he could go somewhere near 90 this year? Droves are jumping on Witherden who appears to be a similar situation, albeit possibly with higher potential, so I am interested in your thoughts on him.
 
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Hi Rowsus,

Very simple question, knowing you don't like to follow the crowd, but ...

Are you considering Fyfe?

I like to try to think differently as often as possible and Fyfe wasn't initially in my considerations, but the way he is looking I feel like I may need to bring him in as he could be back to his Brownlow best.

His only knock is knowing he doesn't play a full 22 games a year.
 
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Hey Rows,

Couple of other queries.
Is Cripps worth looking at? I have doubts now Gibbs has gone he can carry workload.
Secondly, is Hibberd over priced. Think he could be one to pay overs for with Levers addition.
Also with the Dees. Can Oliver continue and improve further ?
 
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what are your thoughts on treloar and mills?

after being persuaded by your post about danger treloar is the "best" player I can afford without ruining my current structure

I was very big on him last year and hate having to resort to him unless you think there are better options from beams down?


onto mills

do you think he can get the mid time needed to be a top pick? I have seen posts suggesting that it isn't that bad an idea which is promising so was hoping for your thoughts

thanks in advance
 
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Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

Wondering your thoughts on Pendlebury and Selwood. Risengrød or Turkey that was off last year but is now delicious again?
Hi stephen,
the turkey's always delicious, as long as it's not dry. Risengrød tastes like porridge, so it's just stodgey. :(
I think both Pendlebury and Selwood are high risk picks this year, and that's reflected in their ownership %'s (P 9%, S 3%).
While they don't have to create history to bounce back to useful levels, they do have to bend it a little.
Not many 30+ year olds manage to increase their scoring up into the area you'd want or need from Pendles. It might have happened 2 or 3 times in SC history. Similarly, Selwood has looked like a 105 player 2 of the last 3 seasons, and needs to do something special to turn that back into 110 territory.
Having said they face a task, they are two of the best in SC history, so that should add to their chances. Selwood has the added hurdle of Ablett soaking up points too. If I was to risk taking one into my team, it would be Pendlebury, but I will be going without either.
 
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