Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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If Danger is looking at reduced points, then the $1.45 for him to be the leading average scorer at TAB is looking shaky. I'm into Fyfe at $34 - no way he is a 3% chance. Of course he still has to get past Martin as well as Dangerfield, but at those odds ( Martin judged a $4 chance), its worth a dip when you consider the shape the Fyfenator is in!
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Rhys Mathieson
Hi Rowsus,
thanks for all your hard work in answering everyone's questions. I was wondering what your reasoning is behind Rhys Mathieson being a potential value pick? Have seen it mentioned elsewhere that he's a breakout candidate. He definitely came on a bit towards the end of the year as Brisbane's performances improved. I'm a Brisbane fan so would love to pick him. But while I think he's coming on, I didn't notice anything in his stats that makes it seem he has great Supercoach potential.
Thanks in advance
Hi Rowsus,
thanks for all your hard work in answering everyone's questions. I was wondering what your reasoning is behind Rhys Mathieson being a potential value pick? Have seen it mentioned elsewhere that he's a breakout candidate. He definitely came on a bit towards the end of the year as Brisbane's performances improved. I'm a Brisbane fan so would love to pick him. But while I think he's coming on, I didn't notice anything in his stats that makes it seem he has great Supercoach potential.
Thanks in advance
Hi JLK5,
while there are similarities to some extent, between Ryan and Witherden, the biggest difference is the attitude and approach of the Coaches involved. Fagan seems more likely to let Witherden thrive and grow in the role, where as Lyon seems set on rotating the role of his players. Very few players in the Freo side seem to play the one role, week in week out. There are some like the obvious one in Sandi, but it seems particularly in Defence their roles seem to swap around, depending on the opposition involved. Why not? It's good coaching, and makes for a versatile team, but it drives us SC Coaches nuts! If you took Ryan, you would have to be prepared that there will be weeks where he plays deeper, lock down type roles, which is SC poison. This would seem to be less likely to happen to Witherden, or at least, less often.
Freo as a team for break out prospects is nearly perfectly set up to have one. Weller, Crozier, Suban and Ibbotsen are gone, and they played 63 games between them last season. That's basically 3 spots in the team hat need filling, and creates opportunities for those lower on the wrungs to step up. If it wasn't for Lyon, I would be pulling their team apart, looking for some likely candidates. As it is, even if you find one, the chances are he will get "Ross'ed" often enough, to make him nearly useless as a break out anyway.
while there are similarities to some extent, between Ryan and Witherden, the biggest difference is the attitude and approach of the Coaches involved. Fagan seems more likely to let Witherden thrive and grow in the role, where as Lyon seems set on rotating the role of his players. Very few players in the Freo side seem to play the one role, week in week out. There are some like the obvious one in Sandi, but it seems particularly in Defence their roles seem to swap around, depending on the opposition involved. Why not? It's good coaching, and makes for a versatile team, but it drives us SC Coaches nuts! If you took Ryan, you would have to be prepared that there will be weeks where he plays deeper, lock down type roles, which is SC poison. This would seem to be less likely to happen to Witherden, or at least, less often.
Freo as a team for break out prospects is nearly perfectly set up to have one. Weller, Crozier, Suban and Ibbotsen are gone, and they played 63 games between them last season. That's basically 3 spots in the team hat need filling, and creates opportunities for those lower on the wrungs to step up. If it wasn't for Lyon, I would be pulling their team apart, looking for some likely candidates. As it is, even if you find one, the chances are he will get "Ross'ed" often enough, to make him nearly useless as a break out anyway.
Hi Santoz,
you're right, I definitely swim against the SC tide, more than I swim with it. Having said that, barring injury, Fyfe has never been out of my side, and won't be leaving it. He ended the last season in ripping form, looked in ripping form in JLT 1, and is seemingly under-priced compared to other Mid Prems. Yes, his game count history is dodgy, but I'm willing to board the ride from the start, and see where it takes me.
you're right, I definitely swim against the SC tide, more than I swim with it. Having said that, barring injury, Fyfe has never been out of my side, and won't be leaving it. He ended the last season in ripping form, looked in ripping form in JLT 1, and is seemingly under-priced compared to other Mid Prems. Yes, his game count history is dodgy, but I'm willing to board the ride from the start, and see where it takes me.
Well, he does make the most amazing Rubik's Cubes!
www.youtube.com/channel/UCTEr310P7d7LI1T3zbbk2oA
But seriously, it lines up with my previous answer on Freo players, just 2 posts up. I just couldn't risk what role Ross might give him any random week. I'm also worried about him maintaining a 80% DE, like he had last season. If that falls, then any growth he has could be eaten by a lower DE%.
www.youtube.com/channel/UCTEr310P7d7LI1T3zbbk2oA
But seriously, it lines up with my previous answer on Freo players, just 2 posts up. I just couldn't risk what role Ross might give him any random week. I'm also worried about him maintaining a 80% DE, like he had last season. If that falls, then any growth he has could be eaten by a lower DE%.
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Hey Slammer,
I would think anyone not at least looking at Cripps is kidding themselves. I wouldn't let any of this "more Forward time" put anyone off. It's nonsense. They aren't going to take their best Clearance player, and sit him in the Forward line for long period's of time! He's currently in my team.
I can't see Lever being there, or not being there, affecting Hibberd one way or the other. Totally different players, and different roles. Lever will play 3rd tall, Hibberd will play rebound. I have no doubt Hibberd will score at a very good level, for good patches of games. I'm also equally sure, he will have his down periods too. We generally have to "overpay" for between 1 and 3 players on every line, and Hibberd wouldn't be the worst one to have on your "overpay" list, as I'm reasonably confident he'll feature somewhere high up in the season end list of Defs.
I'd be surprised if Oliver can take it up too much further this season, but he definitely has the potential to take it up a notch in the coming seasons. He won't be getting under any teams guard this season, so my expectation is, that he might record a similar season to last season, with the extra attention he gets cancelling out any natural improvement.
I would think anyone not at least looking at Cripps is kidding themselves. I wouldn't let any of this "more Forward time" put anyone off. It's nonsense. They aren't going to take their best Clearance player, and sit him in the Forward line for long period's of time! He's currently in my team.
I can't see Lever being there, or not being there, affecting Hibberd one way or the other. Totally different players, and different roles. Lever will play 3rd tall, Hibberd will play rebound. I have no doubt Hibberd will score at a very good level, for good patches of games. I'm also equally sure, he will have his down periods too. We generally have to "overpay" for between 1 and 3 players on every line, and Hibberd wouldn't be the worst one to have on your "overpay" list, as I'm reasonably confident he'll feature somewhere high up in the season end list of Defs.
I'd be surprised if Oliver can take it up too much further this season, but he definitely has the potential to take it up a notch in the coming seasons. He won't be getting under any teams guard this season, so my expectation is, that he might record a similar season to last season, with the extra attention he gets cancelling out any natural improvement.
I'm a little bullish on Treloar. I think he can bounce back to at least the 106-108 area, and possibly even nudge the 110 area, if things go right. I think he was a bit of a victim of circumstances and a changing game plan last season. I think it rattled him a bit, and he lost confidence, and his DE% tanked accordingly. If he can settle early on, and keep his confidence on track, I think he can be a good pick.
Mills is a tricky one. Supposedly training with the Mids (like half the list at every club!), but training to be the run with/lock down player. That still might push him up to the low 90's, if it's true, but I'd rather spend that sort of money on a player from who I was expecting slightly more.
Mills is a tricky one. Supposedly training with the Mids (like half the list at every club!), but training to be the run with/lock down player. That still might push him up to the low 90's, if it's true, but I'd rather spend that sort of money on a player from who I was expecting slightly more.
Hi Bermi,
nice work on the logo!
I'm a bit hesitant to call myself the "King of SuperCoach Scores", otherwise I'd use it.
Is there any way to turn that crown into something that looks like a calculator?
Dermi was one of my favourite players. I just loved the way he lifted in the big games.
I actually truly believe it was my liking for Dermi, and a mistake I made at Adelaide Casino in 1984 that lead to Shane Warne wearing number 23 in the One Day Internationals!
nice work on the logo!
I'm a bit hesitant to call myself the "King of SuperCoach Scores", otherwise I'd use it.
Is there any way to turn that crown into something that looks like a calculator?
Dermi was one of my favourite players. I just loved the way he lifted in the big games.
I actually truly believe it was my liking for Dermi, and a mistake I made at Adelaide Casino in 1984 that lead to Shane Warne wearing number 23 in the One Day Internationals!
Both ridiculous odds!
Anyone looking to take the $1.45 Danger must be thinking he'd win it 5 out of 6 times, if the season was run over and over again. There are so many factors to put into this, that it makes it incalculable, but it seems very unlikely he could win it 5 out of 6 times.
Fyfe, on the other hand, should have no problem winning it more than the required 3-4% of the time, to make backing him worthwhile.
You are good at spotting these exotic overs!
Anyone looking to take the $1.45 Danger must be thinking he'd win it 5 out of 6 times, if the season was run over and over again. There are so many factors to put into this, that it makes it incalculable, but it seems very unlikely he could win it 5 out of 6 times.
Fyfe, on the other hand, should have no problem winning it more than the required 3-4% of the time, to make backing him worthwhile.
You are good at spotting these exotic overs!
Hi Byrnafyrna,
in quick point form:
Coming into his 3rd season.
Near 50% Contested Possession rate, but still maintains a 75% DE. That's hard to do!
Tackles and Clearances running at around 3.5/game, and can easily improve coming into a 3rd season.
Rocky gone.
Has a ripping "I'm going to take you on" attitude.
He just looks the type that will grab an opportunity, and shake the life out of it!
in quick point form:
Coming into his 3rd season.
Near 50% Contested Possession rate, but still maintains a 75% DE. That's hard to do!
Tackles and Clearances running at around 3.5/game, and can easily improve coming into a 3rd season.
Rocky gone.
Has a ripping "I'm going to take you on" attitude.
He just looks the type that will grab an opportunity, and shake the life out of it!
Hi Bermi,
nice work on the logo!
I'm a bit hesitant to call myself the "King of SuperCoach Scores", otherwise I'd use it.
Is there any way to turn that crown into something that looks like a calculator?
Dermi was one of my favourite players. I just loved the way he lifted in the big games.
I actually truly believe it was my liking for Dermi, and a mistake I made at Adelaide Casino in 1984 that lead to Shane Warne wearing number 23 in the One Day Internationals!
nice work on the logo!
I'm a bit hesitant to call myself the "King of SuperCoach Scores", otherwise I'd use it.
Is there any way to turn that crown into something that looks like a calculator?
Dermi was one of my favourite players. I just loved the way he lifted in the big games.
I actually truly believe it was my liking for Dermi, and a mistake I made at Adelaide Casino in 1984 that lead to Shane Warne wearing number 23 in the One Day Internationals!
Cheers
G
G'day Row, first Q of the season for you if you don't mind.
Of all the non rookie players valued between 220-345k from the Fwd/Mid/Bck positions you have looked into this season,
who do you think are the best options both in value but primarily in scoring/keeper potential?
I can understand if you have a sneaky POD you don't want to divulge also but who are some of the other top options?
I ask because i have O'Meara at the moment but due to my teams flexibility i can start a player up to 345K on on line and swing to cover easily.
Hope you have the time to answer, ty in advance, Rob.
Of all the non rookie players valued between 220-345k from the Fwd/Mid/Bck positions you have looked into this season,
who do you think are the best options both in value but primarily in scoring/keeper potential?
I can understand if you have a sneaky POD you don't want to divulge also but who are some of the other top options?
I ask because i have O'Meara at the moment but due to my teams flexibility i can start a player up to 345K on on line and swing to cover easily.
Hope you have the time to answer, ty in advance, Rob.
Hi Bermi,
nice work on the logo!
I'm a bit hesitant to call myself the "King of SuperCoach Scores", otherwise I'd use it.
Is there any way to turn that crown into something that looks like a calculator?
Dermi was one of my favourite players. I just loved the way he lifted in the big games.
I actually truly believe it was my liking for Dermi, and a mistake I made at Adelaide Casino in 1984 that lead to Shane Warne wearing number 23 in the One Day Internationals!
nice work on the logo!
I'm a bit hesitant to call myself the "King of SuperCoach Scores", otherwise I'd use it.
Is there any way to turn that crown into something that looks like a calculator?
Dermi was one of my favourite players. I just loved the way he lifted in the big games.
I actually truly believe it was my liking for Dermi, and a mistake I made at Adelaide Casino in 1984 that lead to Shane Warne wearing number 23 in the One Day Internationals!
Just curious, if you want to make public, what was that mistake you made at the Adelaide Casino???
Ok, so it's September 1984, and the boys are on a footytrip away in Adelaide. Back in those days, the casino was still "Jacket and tie required", so it gives you an idea of how long ago it was. Anyway, it's my first ever trip to a casino, and a few of us head upstairs to play a little roulette. I'm playing 3 or 4 numbers each spin, and 23 was always one of those numbers. After 4 or 5 spins, the 23 hits, and I collect $175. I'm pretty chuffed, and the boys are giving a bit of a cheer, and a few calls of "Dermi!!!!" are going up. While this is going on, the croupier spins the wheel again, and wouldn't you know it, 23 again!
At first my heart sunk. "Oh god no. I didn't put my bets down" I'm thinking.
The croupier then asks "Whose $5 chip is this on the 23?". Luckily there's only me, a few of my mates, and maybe 2 or 3 others at the table.
I said to the croupier "I backed 23 the previous spin, but I didn't put any bets on that spin".
The croupier said to me "did you pick up your chip from the previous spin?".
"No", I replied "I thought that was in the winnings you paid me". Remember, it's my first ever visit to a casino.
"Well then, it's your $5 chips, as we just leave your bet there, it's not in your winnings", so he gives me another $175 in chips
So another $175 jumps straight in, and the boys are all "WWWAAAUUUUWWWW" and "DDDEEERRRMMIIII" and carrying on a treat.
Well, because of my mistake, the boys just kept backing 23 all trip. Roulette, the big spinning wheel, and there were 1 or 2 other 23's we found we could back. Well, wouldn't you know it, while we didn't win every time (of course), we won often enough, that we all left Adelaide with more money than we came with. A legend was born. Every time we went on trips away, or to casino's, the boys always backed 23 when the opportunity presented.
My best mate was there, joining in on it all, and he has a younger brother, Nick, that was in year 11 at the time. Nick's best mate is (I should say was!) none other than Shane Warne. My mate tells his little brother about the trip, and how we all had a ripping time, and won so much money backing "Dermi" the whole trip. Well, about a year later, Nick and Shane are on a school cricket trip in London. Even though they are only 16 and 17, they managed to get their way into a casino there. Nick told Shane "right, here's the go. We back 23 all night, roulette, the spinning wheel, wherever we can find it.". They have an enourmous night, walking out with what was to them at the time, a fortune! I actually don't know how much, but being 16 and 17 it might have just been £150-£200, who knows. Anyway, there are two new converts to the 23, and backing Dermi. In the years that followed, they too backed "Dermi" at every opportunity.
Fast forward another 8 years, and Shane makes his ODI debut for Australia, and wouldn't you know it, he's wearing 23!
Coincidence? Maybe. But I prefer to think, that my noob mistake at Adelaide casino 9 years earlier had something to do with it.
At first my heart sunk. "Oh god no. I didn't put my bets down" I'm thinking.
The croupier then asks "Whose $5 chip is this on the 23?". Luckily there's only me, a few of my mates, and maybe 2 or 3 others at the table.
I said to the croupier "I backed 23 the previous spin, but I didn't put any bets on that spin".
The croupier said to me "did you pick up your chip from the previous spin?".
"No", I replied "I thought that was in the winnings you paid me". Remember, it's my first ever visit to a casino.
"Well then, it's your $5 chips, as we just leave your bet there, it's not in your winnings", so he gives me another $175 in chips
So another $175 jumps straight in, and the boys are all "WWWAAAUUUUWWWW" and "DDDEEERRRMMIIII" and carrying on a treat.
Well, because of my mistake, the boys just kept backing 23 all trip. Roulette, the big spinning wheel, and there were 1 or 2 other 23's we found we could back. Well, wouldn't you know it, while we didn't win every time (of course), we won often enough, that we all left Adelaide with more money than we came with. A legend was born. Every time we went on trips away, or to casino's, the boys always backed 23 when the opportunity presented.
My best mate was there, joining in on it all, and he has a younger brother, Nick, that was in year 11 at the time. Nick's best mate is (I should say was!) none other than Shane Warne. My mate tells his little brother about the trip, and how we all had a ripping time, and won so much money backing "Dermi" the whole trip. Well, about a year later, Nick and Shane are on a school cricket trip in London. Even though they are only 16 and 17, they managed to get their way into a casino there. Nick told Shane "right, here's the go. We back 23 all night, roulette, the spinning wheel, wherever we can find it.". They have an enourmous night, walking out with what was to them at the time, a fortune! I actually don't know how much, but being 16 and 17 it might have just been £150-£200, who knows. Anyway, there are two new converts to the 23, and backing Dermi. In the years that followed, they too backed "Dermi" at every opportunity.
Fast forward another 8 years, and Shane makes his ODI debut for Australia, and wouldn't you know it, he's wearing 23!
Coincidence? Maybe. But I prefer to think, that my noob mistake at Adelaide casino 9 years earlier had something to do with it.
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G’day Rowsus,
I hope you are well and that your SC team is coming along nicely.
I appreciate the time you put into helping all of us on this site day after day, year after year! This is my first question for the year as I am starting to get a bit more serious with my planning - apologies if you have answered it before and I have skipped over it - I selfishly struggle focussing on one team without putting in so much time into research for others like you do!!
I’d like to know how you see the big 3 - Danger, Dusty & Titch fitting into your starting team? All 3 are a very high chance of being in the top 5 or so again with their proven reliability, meaning it would be shear bad luck to an unfortunate injury that stops that happening.
By my maths we have 8 options available to us - start all 3, choose 1 of the 3, choose a combination of 2 out of the 3, or choose not to start any. Which options should we be narrowing our thoughts to?
I am seeing a few teams starting all 3. I just can’t justify spending over 20% of my salary cap on 3 players - However the near guaranteed 500 point head start each week with one of them as captain does sound appealing!
There are a number of teams with a combination of 2 of them. This makes sense if people are starting their teams by picking their C + VC then the rest of their team from there. I can see why people are foregoing Titch given he can be brought in after his bye. I can also see why people are foregoing Danger due to his price, and foregoing Dusty after coming off such a stellar year.
I am also seeing a similar amount of teams choosing just one of them. This also makes sense given the perceived value available in the midfield this year. My current team version only has Titch in it mainly due to his bye, but I would be just as comfortable with either of the other two.
One thing I am not seeing much of is teams without all of them, and I am wondering if this is because it is too dangerous to forego them all or if we are allowing ourselves to be railroaded with our thinking? Given the high ownership of Fyfe & Gawn, most teams would have a viable C & VC option from 2 players who appear fit and ready to go and have the proven ability to go massive! Therefore we should start looking at value to build our team from there.
I hope I haven’t waffled too much, and I would very much appreciate your thoughts on this.
I hope you are well and that your SC team is coming along nicely.
I appreciate the time you put into helping all of us on this site day after day, year after year! This is my first question for the year as I am starting to get a bit more serious with my planning - apologies if you have answered it before and I have skipped over it - I selfishly struggle focussing on one team without putting in so much time into research for others like you do!!
I’d like to know how you see the big 3 - Danger, Dusty & Titch fitting into your starting team? All 3 are a very high chance of being in the top 5 or so again with their proven reliability, meaning it would be shear bad luck to an unfortunate injury that stops that happening.
By my maths we have 8 options available to us - start all 3, choose 1 of the 3, choose a combination of 2 out of the 3, or choose not to start any. Which options should we be narrowing our thoughts to?
I am seeing a few teams starting all 3. I just can’t justify spending over 20% of my salary cap on 3 players - However the near guaranteed 500 point head start each week with one of them as captain does sound appealing!
There are a number of teams with a combination of 2 of them. This makes sense if people are starting their teams by picking their C + VC then the rest of their team from there. I can see why people are foregoing Titch given he can be brought in after his bye. I can also see why people are foregoing Danger due to his price, and foregoing Dusty after coming off such a stellar year.
I am also seeing a similar amount of teams choosing just one of them. This also makes sense given the perceived value available in the midfield this year. My current team version only has Titch in it mainly due to his bye, but I would be just as comfortable with either of the other two.
One thing I am not seeing much of is teams without all of them, and I am wondering if this is because it is too dangerous to forego them all or if we are allowing ourselves to be railroaded with our thinking? Given the high ownership of Fyfe & Gawn, most teams would have a viable C & VC option from 2 players who appear fit and ready to go and have the proven ability to go massive! Therefore we should start looking at value to build our team from there.
I hope I haven’t waffled too much, and I would very much appreciate your thoughts on this.
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