Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Zagbag]

G'day Rowsus - interested in your thoughts regarding a couple of my problem children in Beams and Treloar. I was pretty confident in Beams and have been staggered at a 60 and a 50 thus far. Treloar's DE was always an issue, but with a chance to become Collingwood's main man with Pendles on the wane he seemed like a decent pick.

I'm now considering an early correctional trade for both. I went into this season without Danger, Martin or Mitchell (Dusty because I thought there was little chance he could repeat last year, and Mitchell because I think teams will really start making life difficult for him). With ~$70k in the bank, I'm well short of being able to trade them both to Danger/Coniglio - which is a shame. But I'm considering going Danger+O'Meara or Mitchell+Coniglio/Gray. I realise that it's pretty counter-intuitive, to trade a keeper to someone who will in time require another trade - but it's frustrating to see such underperformance from premiums. Would love to hear your thoughts..

 

[PC]

Hi Rowsus.

Firstly, hope the bday in the castle was good!

Wondering about Cox with all the injuries that have happened for the Pies - good or bad scoring prospects?

 

[dicksilverman]

hey Row, happy bday for yesterday. quick one, is trading Zorko to Titch a silly idea? i believe not considering the changes in value about to occur, plus it closes a negative pod for me. can always look at bringing Zorko in down the track, and will only have used 2 trades after 2 rounds for corrections.

thanks for advice.
d!ck

 

[t.thomas6]

Afternoon Row,

Few questions (assuming all rookies are good to go):

1) M.Crouch - worth going straight to Danger if funds are not an issue and get him in early or to a Cripps type and wait for Danger to drop in price?
2) Hibberd - worth holding or swapping to a Shaw to free up some cash for similar if not potentially better output?

Cheers

 

[TeeButOne]

G'day Rowsus,

Was wondering if I could pick your brain:

After trading Ryder to NicNat last week, I have about $180k-$185k in the bank. My team is now generally pretty solid, no more MAJOR issues to deal with.

As with many others, I am contemplating trading out Hibberd (possession count drop, no kick-ins, etc.), but at the same time wanting to make best use of the additional cash. As such, I have a couple of scenarios.

The first seems to be where many are going, which is straight-swap Hibberd for a like-for-like (i.e.: Simpson), then Naughton to Bonner. I'm not completely sold on this myself, and it would still leave me a fair chunk of cash in the bank. Also have Laird and Shaw as DEF premiums.

The second would be Hibberd to Curnow (via Sicily), then with the additional cash, upgrade either Brayshaw or Davies-Uniacke to Coniglio, leaving me some cash. Also have Heeney, Billings and Smith as FWD premiums. The main issue I have with this option is trading out a rookie that isn't a complete disaster, but it would get me two potential premiums (current MID premiums are Dangerfield, Martin, Mitchell, Fyfe and Cripps). I wasn't particularly sold on Coniglio in the pre-season, but his role seems pretty solid so far.

Or obviously hold all trades, and store the cash for a later date.

Any suggestions? Thanks in advance.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Hope you are enjoying your birthday and Round 2 was kind to you.

My question regards Laird , due to his starting price I did not start him (or Hurley , Yeo & Hibberd) and was hoping he would have a slowish start.

I fully expect him to finish Top 6 defender.

How wrong was I and after a 137 & 120 I feel if I don't get him in now he will be fast approaching $ 600,000.00 and out of reach for awhile.

I need to correct Lambert , so am thinking of getting Laird this week.

I had him down for a 100.00 ave for the season so even without correcting he would need to average 97.15 per week from here on , a figure I doubt many other defenders will reach.

Their does not seem to be a clear breakout defender as yet , about 8 in the $ 300,000.00 + bracket are averaging 90 + but whether they all can sustain that is up to conjecture.

Hurn looks like he is over scoring at the moment , Ryan , Lloyd & Savage look OK.

My defence if I got Laird would be :-

Laird , Shaw , Doedee , Bonner , Finlayson , Murray (Murphy , Keeffe)

My first trade will be CEllis to Kelly so my second would be Lambert to Laird.

I have a reasonable start to the season (ranked 4,272) so would appreciate any advice.

Thanks in advance

Hi Herbie66,
my birthday was enjoyable, and my Round 2 was just below par, thanks.
In normal circumstances we might have 2 to 4 Defs we could hang our hat on, and say "he's a safe pick". It's just not happening this year, outside of Laird. So in normal circumstances I'd say wait him out, even though he won't drop in the next short period.
But this year isn't presenting normal circumstances, so that being the case, and like me you have gone with 1-0-7 Def line, I say your trades look good to me, CEllis to Laird, Lambert to Kelly seems like 2 good trades.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, I am sitting 746 overall and my only concern is Lambert. He hasn't started well and with $62.6k in the bank Im looking to move on him. Can you give any insight to Zac Fisher please. Im thinking of banking the cash (Danger upgrade) while Fisher appears to be a solid cash cow while providing points on field
or the other option im considering at this stage is Toby McLean, any info on Toby would also be appreciated or is another Toby, Toby Greene the more logical pick..?

Hi siwel, congratulations on your good start. I hope it keeps going.
Fisher worries me a little, particularly with Kennedy and Lang soon to be available for selection, and we just can't be sure how they will affect his output.
McLean looks like being the biggest beneficiary from Libba's injury, and scored well in a defeat last season, so may not be too adversely affected if the wheels have fallen completely off the Bullies.
Greene is still my favourite player to watch, and has been for 3 seasons now. His biggest hurdle is, it just seems unlikely he'll play 22 games too often, so I'd avoid him for now.
Of the 3 you've put up, I'd be going McLean.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rows,

Happy Birthday
Guessing it is time for those correctional trades
Unfortunately this year I have a few too many so I have to choose wisely.
Rayner (don’t ask) is by worst followed by CEllis, Armitage and Lambert
Of course we do not have the luxury of 4 trades so I am a little stuck as to who to offload first
Thinking possibly Rayner must go but he could sit on my bench
CEllis to Bonner seems the go but I used all my cash this year
So need to trade a Rayner or Armitage and hope Lambert comes good
Could be Armitage to CEY and CEllis to Bonner or
Any suggestions as to what order I should look at would be greatly appreciated

Hey Slam. thanks for that.
Rayner $202,800 ave 29 B/E 61
C Ellis $228,400 ave 50 B/E 34
Armitage $310,100 ave 77.5 B/E 27
Lambert $472,500 ave 60 B/E 158
Looking at those numbers, I'd be prepared to stick with Armitage for another week or two. He certainly looks less of a problem than he other 3 anyway.
A lot might depend on if C Ellis gets selected this week, and there would appear to be some doubt on it. It also might depend on where you have Sicily sitting.
If Ellis is selected, he's unlikely to lose money, so the question is, how keen are you to get Bonner?

If Ellis is selected, I think I'd go (assuming Lambert and Rayner aren't both stuck in your Fwd line):

Lambert/Rayner ($675,300) ---> Coniglio/Fritsch ($569,700) (or Waterman, if Fritsch is out injured)

If Ellis isn't selected, and Sicily is sitting in your Def line, then:

Lambert/C Ellis (700,900) ---> Coniglio/Murphy ($554,800)

Both options build your bank, and I would think gives you more on field points than the CEY/Bonner combination.
You have a lot options and permutations, though selection will probably make your choices clearer.
I hope this has helped.

 

[Rowsus]

Happy birthday.
Would you swap any of, fritsch, garlett, d.fogarty, banfield, Barry, a.brayshaw to liam Ryan after he hit a ton?
Perhaps it's a wait for teams for round 3 decision. It slightly feels like a waste of a trade

I think you are right, and selection will determine it.
While Ryan should out earn all of them, I'm not confident it will be by enough to warrant a trade, if they are all selected.
If one is dropped, and gives an indication of shakey JS, then that's a whole different story!
I think you're a chance to see one dropped, too.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowan, heard it’s your birthday, hope you’re going well!

What's your thought on Coniglio? As a Matt Crouch owner I’m thinking this could be the obvious trade. Do you have an opinion on him? The cash it frees up would allow me to go Dow to Dangerfield or Titch after round three. (The other trade this round will be Ryder to NicNat).

Thanks mate in advance!

Hi Drew, I'm going well, and I hope you are too.
While I expect Coniglio's output to come back to the field a bit, he still looks close to a must have at his price, and his 2016 and 2018 form. Keep in mind, we all expected Oliver to come back to the field last year too.
I think your plan looks better than pretty good, to be honest.

 

[TerryB]

Belated Birthday wishes and thanks for your concise info and greatly valued opinions.

 

[Herbie66]

Hi Herbie66,
my birthday was enjoyable, and my Round 2 was just below par, thanks.
In normal circumstances we might have 2 to 4 Defs we could hang our hat on, and say "he's a safe pick". It's just not happening this year, outside of Laird. So in normal circumstances I'd say wait him out, even though he won't drop in the next short period.
But this year isn't presenting normal circumstances, so that being the case, and like me you have gone with 1-0-7 Def line, I say your trades look good to me, CEllis to Laird, Lambert to Kelly seems like 2 good trades.

Thanks Rowsus.

Sicily suspended and ZGL getting injured has thrown a slight spanner in my plans and with ??? over Fritsch & Smith , I certainly don't want to be eating a donut this early in the season.

Will be awaiting Thursdays night teams eagerly.

So far Heater has stood up , Bonner's good scores are outweighed by CEllis poor ones.

Doedee & Finlayson are performing better than we could imagine.

As long as Murphy & Murray keep playing I will be happy.

Maybe Cameron will pick Keeffe this week.

6 premium mids + Kelly & Holman would have been a dream start.

Good luck for Round 3 and the rest of your season.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Hi Rowsus.

I currently have 2-0-6 structure in Defence (with Hibberd & Savage D1 & D2). I am planning to correct Hibberd and I would appreciate your thoughts on the following players and proposed trades.

I have some spare cash, so can afford to do the following trades
Hibberd => Simpson
Naughton => Shaw
I don't have enough cash to get Laird as part of this trade unless I just go Hibbo to Laird

I quite like the idea of getting Simpson & Shaw as it effectively allows me to upgrade Naughton to a Premo. My concern is really about Shaw - specifically, Shaw has scored well in the past 2 games but do we trust that he is going to continue to play a SC freindly role and output, or is it an illusion/trap?

Do you think Shaw is a player I should be targeting for an upgrade as part of this proposed trade? Further, does it make sense to target Simpson & Shaw in this combined trade, or would I be better off just targeting Hibbo to Laird at this stage?

Thanks in advance

 

[Zim^zuM]

Hi Rowan,

How are you?

Good thanks.

Would love your thoughts on Hibberd in general and what you think of quite a few people looking to either sideways trade him or download him to Bonner.

Or redirect me to a post that has already answered it.

 

[Drew]

Hi Drew, I'm going well, and I hope you are too.
While I expect Coniglio's output to come back to the field a bit, he still looks close to a must have at his price, and his 2016 and 2018 form. Keep in mind, we all expected Oliver to come back to the field last year too.
I think your plan looks better than pretty good, to be honest.

Cheers mate, much appreciated!

 

[Adrenaline]

Hi row

Hibberd seems to be the flavour of the week. His last two scores have been around 75. Apart from last year he was averaging low 90’s with the bombers. I have him in my team and I read in one of your earlier post that we may need to adjust our thinking of how much hibberd can average. I’m thibking he will average around 90.

I currently have Sicily in my forward line and with Sicily and zgl out i think swapping Sicily in the forward line and replacing hibberd for Robbie gray might be the way to go.

What is your thoughts regarding hibberd output for this year? Also do you think gray is the best pick of the bunch out of buddy, acres and McLean?

 

[anfa18]

Hi Rowan,

How are you?

Good thanks.

Would love your thoughts on Hibberd in general and what you think of quite a few people looking to either sideways trade him or download him to Bonner.

Or redirect me to a post that has already answered it.

Here you go Zim, it may partially answer your question.

http://www.supercoachscores.com/thr...Rowsus/page429?p=393974&viewfull=1#post393974

 

[bluesbrothers]

Hi Rowsus, hope all is well.

Just after your thoughts relating to Dahlhaus. I haven't seen any of the Bulldogs games so am struggling to form an opinion on whether i need to trade or not. If yes who do you think my best options are.

Thanks in advance for your hard work

 

[Slammer]

Hey Slam. thanks for that.
Rayner $202,800 ave 29 B/E 61
C Ellis $228,400 ave 50 B/E 34
Armitage $310,100 ave 77.5 B/E 27
Lambert $472,500 ave 60 B/E 158
Looking at those numbers, I'd be prepared to stick with Armitage for another week or two. He certainly looks less of a problem than he other 3 anyway.
A lot might depend on if C Ellis gets selected this week, and there would appear to be some doubt on it. It also might depend on where you have Sicily sitting.
If Ellis is selected, he's unlikely to lose money, so the question is, how keen are you to get Bonner?

If Ellis is selected, I think I'd go (assuming Lambert and Rayner aren't both stuck in your Fwd line):

Lambert/Rayner ($675,300) ---> Coniglio/Fritsch ($569,700) (or Waterman, if Fritsch is out injured)

If Ellis isn't selected, and Sicily is sitting in your Def line, then:

Lambert/C Ellis (700,900) ---> Coniglio/Murphy ($554,800)

Both options build your bank, and I would think gives you more on field points than the CEY/Bonner combination.
You have a lot options and permutations, though selection will probably make your choices clearer.
I hope this has helped.

Thanks Rows.
Looking at it I could be in a world of pain regardless
Yes.. I have Sicily and Rayner in fwd line but do have
a non playing OKeefe in backline
Issue I have is mids seem ok with TKelly, Holman, Brayshaw, Armitage
However could quite easily lose CEllis, Rayner this week and along with Sicily, Langdon and OKeefe I am moving in donut territory again.
Coniglio seems a must have but would mean Lambert/Rayner to Waterman/Coniglio via Garlett
Not sold on Waterman and could look at Murphy depending on selection.
Also could forgo Coniglio and bring in CDixon
Any thoughts on Dixon? Would mean no Coniglio though

 

[Steuby]

Hey Rowsus, Happy belated Birthday I hope you enjoyed it

I'm not sure if this has been asked before but i'm really curious if you have seen/made/ any data on the supercoach averages of AFL greats (Hird, Carey, Harvey, Gary Ablett Snr etc.) in their prime. Unfortunately their primes were before Supercoach opened